Business case of the
unmanned vessel
MUNIN Final Event
June 10th 2015, Hamburg, Germany
Dipl.-Ing.oec. Lutz Kretschmann
Research Associate
Fraunhofer CML
http://www.unmanned-ship.org
SST.2012.5.2-5: Grant no. 314286
E-guided vessels: The 'autonomous' ship
Agenda

Introduction

Methodology of analysis

Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship

Business case scenarios
2
From Research and Innovation to
Market Deployment
Successful introduction of innovative technologies depends on:

Technical feasibility

Regulatory compliance

Proven safety

Economic viability
3
Trade-off Between Increased Capital
Costs and Reduced Crew Costs
Crew size development of
ocean going ships
Principal correlation of crew size
and new building cost
Capital cost
Crew on board
Crew in SCC
250
200
150
100
Future
development?
50
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Short term
application
2050
Source: Fraunhofer CML
4
MUNIN long
term vision
Agenda

Introduction

Methodology of analysis

Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship

Business case scenarios
5
Scope of Analysis
Innovations in waterborne transport
Unmanned ship



Reduced crew
New ship designs
Improved safety
Intelligent ship




Optimized (weather) routing
Onboard energy efficiency management
Voyage performance management
Condition monitoring and management
Efficient ship



Source: Fraunhofer CML
6
Hull form optimization
Energy-saving devices
Machinery technology
Shipping Cash-flow Model
Ship Revenue
Depends on:
1. Cargo capacity
2. Productivity
3. Freight rates
Free cash flow
Capital Cost

Operating Cost
Voyage Cost
If cost over lifetime of unmanned autonomous bulker is lower than cost of conventional
bulker it will generate a higher free cash flow
Source: Stopford 2009
7
Methodology of Analysis
2
a.
b.
Identify differences
Model & calculate effects
1
3
Cost model of conv. bulker:
1. Capital Cost
2. Operational Cost
3. Voyage Cost
Cost model of MUNIN bulker:
1. Capital Cost
2. Operational Cost
3. Voyage Cost
4
Cost-NPV
 Calculate Net Present Value of cost over lifetime
 Compare Cost-NPV under different scenarios
 If Cost-NPV of MUNIN bulker is lower than CostNPV of conventional bulker
 unmanned autonomous ship is favorable
MUNIN bulker
100%
50%
Source: Fraunhofer CML
8
Conventional bulker
Agenda

Introduction

Methodology of analysis

Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship

Business case scenarios
9
Operating Cost – Changes for the
MUNIN Bulker
Operating cost conventional bulker
Changes
Operating
Cost
Crew
Cost
45%
Stores &
Consumables
14%
Maint. &
Repair
13%
Insurance
General
Costs
15%
13%
Source: Fraunhofer CML
10
Unmanned Ship Requires Land
Based Services
Crew is shifted
from ship to shore
On board crew related
cost is reduced
Additional cost for land based services:
1. Shore control center
• Personnel cost
• Equipment, rent, etc.
2. Maintenance crews in port
Source: Fraunhofer CML
11
Voyage Cost and Fuel Price


Impossible to predict how fuel prices
Crude oil an fuel price development
develop in future
USD per tone
Necessary to predict how fuel prices
1.200
Forecast
base case
1.000
MDO
develop in future

Approach based on forecast for
crude oil prices (IEA World Energy
Outlook)
HFO
600
2020
Crude Oil
[USD/barrel]
800
2025
2030
2035
400
119.5
121.9
123.6
MDO
Crude Oil
125
200

Oil price is converted into fuel prices
HFO
0
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
12
2007
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, Fraunhofer CML
2006
2005
(HFO/MDO) based on past ratio
Voyage Cost – Changes for the
MUNIN Bulker
Voyage cost conventional bulker
Changes
Voyage
cost
Fuel
propulsion
Fuel
e-power
Port
cost
69%
14%
17%
Source: Fraunhofer CML
13
Efficiency Gains Related to Unmanned
Ship Design Considered in Analysis
2
1
Air resistance (no deckshouse)
 Reduced fuel consumption
Light Ship Weight (no deckshouse)
 Reduced fuel consumption
3
4
Source: Fraunhofer CML
14
Hotel systems (no crew living
on board)  Reduced fuel
consumption
Twin skeg / two engines
design  Additional fuel
efficiency gains possible
New Building Price of Panamax
Bulk Carriers
Development of bulker new building prices
m USD
100
90
80
Capsize

Panamax
recent past
Handysize
70

60
Average new building price for
panamax bulker over past 12
50
years was 34mUSD
40
34
30

Capital cost of conventional
bulker assumed to be 34mUSD
20
10
0
2002
New building price volatile in
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: EquityGate Advisors 2013, Fraunhofer CML
15
Changes in New Building Cost for
Unmanned Ship Design
1
No deckhouse (reduced
material & production cost)
2
5
No hotel (air conditioning,
heating, ventilation, etc.)
Propulsion: twin
skeg & two engines
3
4
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Redundancy of technical
systems (communication,
e-system, etc.)
16
Autonomous ship technology
(advances sensor module, deepsea navigation system, etc.)
Agenda

Introduction

Methodology of analysis

Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship

Business case scenarios
17
Base Scenario
Scenario description:
MUNIN compared to a conventional bulker
Expected present value over lifetime
•
Fuel price: med.
•
New building: 110%
Higher
newbuilding
cost
•
Main fuel type: HFO
Crew cost
+10,4
•
Considers effects of
Land based
services
-2,5
•
Reduced crew
•
Improved ship efficiency
-3,4
Better fuel
efficiency
+5,4
MUNIN
+ 9,9
mUSD
-2,5
Source: Fraunhofer CML
18
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
Impact of Fuel Cost on Base Scenario
Scenario description:
•
Fuel price: high/med./low
•
New building: 110%
•
Main fuel type: HFO
•
Considers effects of
•
Reduced crew
•
Improved ship efficiency
Advantageousness of MUNIN bulker for different
fuel price scenarios
Expected PV
[mUSD]
Oil price
[USD/barrel]
15
200
160
10
120
80
5
40
0
0
Low
Source: Fraunhofer CML
19
Medium
High
MDO Scenario
Scenario description:
•
Fuel price: med.
MUNIN vs conventional bulker
Expected present value of savings over lifetime
•
New building: 110%
Higher
newbuilding
cost
•
Main fuel type: MDO
Crew cost
+10,4
•
Considers effects of
Land based
services
-2,5
•
Reduced crew
•
Improved ship efficiency
-3,4
-19,4
MDO as fuel
-14,9
MUNIN
mUSD
-15
Source: Fraunhofer CML
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
MDO & MDO Scenario
Scenario description:
MUNIN vs conventional bulker
Expected present value of savings over lifetime
•
Fuel price: med.
•
New building: 110%
Higher
newbuilding
cost
•
Main fuel type: MDO on
Crew cost
+10,4
Land based
services
-2,5
-3,4
MUNIN & conv. bulker
•
Considers effects of
•
Reduced crew
•
Improved ship efficiency
Better fuel
efficiency
+7,0
MUNIN
+11,5
mUSD
-5,0 -2,5 0,0 2,5 5,0 7,5 10,0 12,5
Source: Fraunhofer CML
21
Scenario Reduced Crew Only
Scenario description:
MUNIN vs conventional bulker
Expected present value of savings over lifetime
•
Fuel price: med.
•
New building: 110%
Higher
newbuilding
cost
•
Main fuel type: HFO
Crew cost
+10,4
•
Considers effects of
Land based
services
-2,5
•
Reduced crew
•
Improved ship efficiency
-3,4
Additional
port call cost
-3,2
+ 1,3
MUNIN
mUSD
-5,0
Source: Fraunhofer CML
22
-2,5
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
Best Case Scenario
Scenario description:
•
Fuel price: high
•
New building: 80%
•
Main fuel type: MDO on
MUNIN vs conventional bulker
Expected present value of savings over lifetime
Lower new
building cost
+6,8
Crew cost
+10,4
Land based
services
-2,5
MUNIN & conv. bulker
•
Considers effects of
•
Reduced crew
•
Improved ship efficiency
•
No onboard control team
Better fuel
efficiency
+14,3
MUNIN
+ 29,0
mUSD
0
Source: Fraunhofer CML
23
5
10
15
20
25
30
Thank You!
24