INTRODUCTION TO PARTNERSHIP PROBLEM SOLVING Supported by the _________________________________________________________ Course tutor: Sylvia Chenery Tel: 07764 196576 Email:appliedcriminology@ntlworld.com Acknowledgements The material and help for this course has come from years of experience working with the police and partnerships, and a number of extremely helpful sources, including the US Problem Oriented Policing Centre (http://www.popcenter.org); the Home Office, (http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk); the Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science (http://www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk); Dr Rick Brown, Evidence Led Solutions, (http://www.els.org.uk);Alan Edmunds and his ‘Simple to Start’ Methodology (http://simple2start.co.uk); Professor Ken Pease OBE (received for his services to crime prevention) and Professor Nick Tilley, who has been a driving influence in developing Problem Oriented Partnerships in the UK, and Herman Goldstein, Professor Emeritus, University of Wisconsin, who believed over 30 years ago that problem solving and partnership working was the way to solve the substantive issues that are of concern to individuals and our communities. Course tutor Sylvia Chenery is an independent consultant who works alongside a number of highly respected academics and practitioners, using their extensive collaborative knowledge to provide support and guidance to Criminal Justice Agency partners. She is affiliated to a number of academic establishments, including the Jill Dando Institute for Crime Science, at the University College, London. She is a former University Research Manager, and has been a visiting consultant to the Police Foundation and Centre for Victims of Crime, and the Police Executive Research Forum, USA. She is an experienced researcher, working on local and national projects; her recent work includes Home Office Organised Crime research, and examination of resettlement issues, with the Prison Reform Trust. She has published widely, particularly on the subject of repeat victimisation. She is frequently requested to work with Community Safety Partnerships and regularly provides training on a number of subjects, including problem solving and problem oriented partnerships, project management and community safety. She is the Problem Oriented Policing and Partnership (POPP) advisor and trainer to the Bermuda Police Service, and has been a visiting expert for the National Policing Improvement Agency. 2 Contents Section Title Page 1. Introduction: Key elements of Problem Solving 4 2. The SARA Model 5 3. Routine Activity Theory (RAT) 8 4. Problem Analysis Triangle (PAT) 10 5. Rational Choice Theory 13 6. Repeat Victimisation 14 7. Ten Principles of Crime Opportunity Theory 20 8. Types of Crime Prevention 22 9. Situational Crime Prevention 25 10. Crime Prevention Through Environment Design (CPTED) 29 11. Developing Interventions 30 12. Mechanisms of Change 31 13. Stakeholders 33 14. Project Management 38 15. Monitoring and Evaluation 44 Appendix 1. Problem solving checklist 2. Comparisons between Neighbourhood Policing and Problem Oriented Policing 3. Process and Impact evaluation results 3 1. Introduction: Key Elements of Problem Solving This course aims to be able to help you understand and use the four main stages of problem solving. But first it is necessary to understand what a problem solving approach actually is: Is a way of thinking that systematically addresses identified problems; It encompasses a set of tools designed to help you understand the issues more clearly; It is not about quick fixes, but about dealing with the conditions that create the problems; The purposes of a problem solving approach is to address the underlying conditions that affect community safety, often needing closer involvement with the public in order to meet their needs. This approach recognises and uses the expertise of others, and encourages more lateral and creative thinking, and to use a wider range of resources in developing solutions. But what is a problem? It is something that concerns or causes harm to the people of our communities; It is something that occurs on more than one occasion, and is often similar in nature. In order to deal with the problems, we need to understand how they are related, and this can be in a number of ways: Location Suspect (or groups of suspects Victim group or type Target Behaviour Time Evidence 4 Understanding the problem means it must be routinely and systematically analysed, and that this process should be thorough. Before a problem can be solved, it needs to be understood; It must be described precisely and accurately and broken down into specific aspects of the problem. It is important to understand that problems often aren't what they first appear to be; It must be understood in terms of the various interests at stake. Individuals and groups of people are affected in different ways by a problem and have different ideas about what should be done about the problem. The way the problem is currently being handled must be understood and the limits of effectiveness must be openly acknowledged in order to come up with a better response. All possible responses should be considered so as not to cut short potentially effective responses. Possible responses should follow from what is learned during the analysis. Suggested further reading: Not Rocket Science? Problem-solving and crime reduction Crime Reduction Research Series Paper 6, Tim Read and Nick Tilley, London: Home Office, 2000 http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/crrs06.pdf PDF 184 Kb Tilley and Read’s paper also provides a checklist aiming to help local problem-solvers take a critical look at their current working practices and identify points for improvement. Even though this was published some years ago, it can still be used by both individual agencies and by partnerships as a way of assessing progress towards problem-solving (See Appendix 1) 2. SARA MODEL This check list is based around the SARA Model which many people are now familiar with. The SARA model encompasses the four main stages of a problem solving approach i.e. Scanning, Analysis, Response, Assessment These four key stages are: Scanning – identifying problems using knowledge, basic data, electronic maps etc Analysis – using knowledge and information technology to dig deeper into problems’ characteristics and underlying causes Response – devising a solution, working with the community, wherever possible Assessment – looking back to see if the solution worked and what lessons can be learned. 5 The SARA methodical process has now been used for many years in a problem-oriented approach, and most UK Crime and Disorder Partnerships are familiar with the key stages, but as to what level each stage is routinely developed is often taken in a more ad hoc approach. SARA is a way for crime reduction practitioners in any field to apply a process that can ensure a problem is effectively identified and tackled, avoiding any waste of time and resources. Scanning: Scanning allows incidents to be grouped into clusters or ‘problems’. These problems comprise similar, related or recurring incidents and are identified from police and partnership data and intelligence and calls from members of the community. The definition of what constitutes a ‘problem’ is deliberately left open as there is an almost endless range of situations where the public may call for help. Incidents may vary in terms of their seriousness, particularly in crime terms, but they are all of concern to the community and many call for a partnership response. Problems identified in the scanning phase of the process should not be “oneoffs”; they should be problems which have been recurring for some time, certainly over a period of months. It makes more sense to spend time and resources on a long-term problem than on one that would have only lasted for a couple of weeks. Analysis In this phase, crime reduction practitioners identify the conditions that give rise to a particular problem by examining the characteristics and impact of the problem in greater detail. For example, scanning might have revealed that there were many abandoned vehicles in a particular area, but analysis will provide information on whether the vehicles were stolen, and if so the hour, day or month that the thefts took place and from which particular locations. Analysis may involve collecting information about offenders and victims, the time of occurrence, location and other details of the physical environment, the history of the current problem, the motivations, gains and losses of involved parties, the apparent (and hidden) causes and competing interests, and the results of current responses. Practitioners may need to talk to colleagues, partners, local businesses, or to members of the community to better understand the problem. As well as police and fire service data, information held by other organisations such as insurance companies, hospitals, local authorities, probation and schools may be useful. 6 Response Response refers to any action taken to try to address a problem. This might vary from the simple – for example a practitioner advising someone what they should or should not be doing – to the complex, such as a practitioner involving the community and local bodies to set up a project to help young people. Work done in the analysis phase helps to identify or isolate the element that can most easily and effectively be tackled to try to resolve a problem. Often, responses will combine actions to tackle more than one aspect of the problem identified during the analysis phase. In selecting responses, it is crucial to work out in detail how they are expected to produce their intended effects (see mechanism of change Section 13). Assessment In the final stage of SARA, practitioners review attempts to deal with a problem and evaluate how successful they have been. There are three major reasons why the assessment stage is very important 1. To find out whether a particular problem still exists and requires continuing attention. This is important in deciding whether to continue to deploy resources respond effectively to the problem. to 2. To improve problem-solving skills by finding out what seems to work in differing circumstances. This avoids reinventing the wheel and contributes to the “what works” knowledgebase and the dissemination of good practice. 3. To enable effective problem-solving to be recognised acknowledging individuals' efforts. Assessment can be difficult to do well and as a result is often largely overlooked. It must be a routine feature of any problem-solving structure. Assessment is not an evaluation of the performance of those involved but what happened when a problem was tackled. An assessment that concludes that a problem has been dealt with successfully does not always mean that it has been eliminated. There are many different types of success. For example: The problem and its impact remain the same but the volume of partnership effort to respond to it may be reduced. The harm to the public may be reduced even though the number of incidents remains the same. The number of problem incidents may be reduced. The problem may be entirely eliminated. 7 Good assessment: Needs a clear definition of the problem and a description of how it is being addressed in order to focus measurement where success is most realistically to be expected. Needs a good description of what was actually done and when action was taken as there is often a difference between what was planned and what was actually done. Needs to identify whether a response failed to achieve the hoped for outcomes because it was not applied as had been intended, or whether it genuinely failed to make an impact. Needs a collection of incident and other data about the problem before and after the response and the identification of the precise action taken to resolve the problem, rather than basic before and after measures at an aggregate level Conclusion Although SARA can be used as a guiding process for problem solving, it would be wise not to see it as the answer to everything as it can be limited in its effectiveness if it is employed in too mechanistic a fashion. Examples of poor use of SARA within problem solving include: not making full use of historical data available when scanning not doing in-depth analysis because it is felt that enough is known about a problem to understand it without special research not keeping the phases distinct from each other using it to justify an already chosen solution, rather than as a means of gaining deeper understanding of what is happening. 3. Routine Activity Theory (RAT) Routine Activity Theory (RAT) is one of the main theories of environmental criminology; developed by criminologists Marcus Felson (Rutgers University) and Lawrence Cohen who have worked for many years on crime prevention theory. RAT states that for a predatory crime to occur, 3 elements must be present when any crime is committed. RAT also incorporates the crime triangle, sometimes referred to as the "problem analysis triangle" (PAT). RAT states that when a crime occurs, 3 things happen at the same time and in the same space: A suitable target is available 2. There is the lack of a suitable guardian to prevent the crime from happening 3. A likely and motivated offender is present. 1. 8 1) A Suitable Target The first condition for crime is that a suitable target must be available. The word target has been chosen carefully, rather than other words such as victim. There are 3 major categories of target. A target can either be: A person An object A place. There are plenty of potential targets around us, but not all of them are suitable crime targets. However, Professor Ron Clarke, School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University, codirector of the US POP Centre, and visiting professor at the Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science says that for a target to be of interest to an offender it has to be either: VIVA: Value, Inertia, Visibility, Access CRAVED: Concealable, Removable, Disposable. Available, Valuable, Enjoyable, No matter how suitable or valuable a target is however, an offence will not occur unless a capable guardian is absent and a likely offender is present. 2) Absence of a Capable Guardian The second condition is that a capable guardian whose presence would discourage a crime from taking place must be absent. A capable guardian may have a 'human element', that is usually a person that by their mere presence would deter potential offenders from perpetrating an act. A capable guardian could also be CCTV, providing that someone is monitoring it at the other end of the camera. Examples of capable guardians: police patrols security guards Neighbourhood Watch schemes door staff vigilant staff and co-workers friends and/or neighbours alarms Close Circuit Television (CCTV) 9 Some of the guardians are formal and deliberate, like security guards; some are informal and inadvertent, such as neighbours. It is also possible for a guardian to be present, but ineffective. For example a CCTV camera is not a capable guardian if it is set up or sited wrongly. Staff might be present in a location, but may not have sufficient training or awareness to be an effective deterrent. 3) Likely Offenders When a suitable target is unprotected by a capable guardian there is a chance that a crime will take place. The final element in this picture is that a likely offender has to be present. RAT looks at crime from an offender point of view. A crime will only be committed if a likely offender thinks that a target is suitable and a capable guardian is absent. It is their assessment of a situation that determines whether a crime will take place (see Rational Choice Theory Section 5). 4. Problem Analysis Triangle; (PAT) RAT introduces an important tool in crime analysis, the crime triangle (known as the problem analysis triangle (PAT)). In the past two triangles were presented separately with PAT being used in the analysis of a crime problem (victim, location, offender) and RAT use to develop the interventions (target/victim, location and absence of a capable guardian). This formulation of the crime triangle sees a combination of the 2 helping to think about responses as well as analysis. 10 Was has most recently been considered as important is an further layer to the triangle, known as ‘Super Controllers’, i.e. those in a strategic position who can enable the handlers, managers and guardians to undertake the necessary actions (John Eck 2008 unpublished). Super Controllers are institutions, organisations, and people that can provide incentives to controllers to act in ways that prevent crime. r de fen Of Ha rC pe Su rs er lle tro on rC pe Su e ac ag n Ma Pl on tro lle rs nd ler Super Controllers Target Guardian Super Controllers An example of a ‘Super Controller’ (SC) influence is where stolen vehicles are being abandoned in the car park of a local cinema. The car park is in disrepair, and is often targeted by local youths and criminals, who undertake other offences such as theft from parked cars, drug use and arson. The cinema manager has been given situational crime prevention advice on how to improve the standard of the car park, but is either unwilling or unable to take these actions. The Super Controller in this instance is the more senior Area Manager, who has now been made aware of the impact of the recurring criminality in the car park. This SC is more likely to have more power and influence to undertake any changes necessary. He or she may still be unwilling to make these changes, and it is at this point that the Partnership may wish to exert some of their own influence in encouraging or supporting these improvements. 11 USE OF THE PROBLEM ANALYSIS TRIANGLE A simplistic example of potential responses for a problem is given below. Detailed scanning and analysis would enable officers to devise better ways of responding. Problem - gangs of youths frequently attacking or intimidating people leaving a pub and walking along a poorly lit street PAT element Possible response Place Tackling the lack of lighting by bringing the problem to the attention of the relevant authority Offenders Considering why the youths hang around the area, to establish whether there is something that brings them there, or whether there is a lack of other places to go Victims Enlisting the help of the local community by encouraging them to keep a special watch on the area and to lobby the local authority to provide better amenities for young people Targeting police resources such as foot and car patrols in the area at the particular times identified by analysis when the incidents are most frequent Bringing the problem, and efforts to tackle it, to the attention of the local media to try to improve the reputation of the area Further Reading Clarke, R.V. and Eck, J (2003) Becoming a Problem-Solving Crime Analyst. Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science. London: University College London http://www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk/publications/other_publications/55steps Home Office on line learning zone: http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/learningzone/rat.htm 12 5. Rational Choice Theory Rational Choice Theory (RCT) by Professor Derek Cornish and Professor Ron Clarke (1986) is the theoretical foundation on which Situational Crime Prevention (SCP) stands. The rational choice perspective assumes that offenders seek to benefit in some way from their offending behaviour. RCT therefore portrays offenders as active decision makers who undertake a cost-benefit analysis of presenting crime opportunities. Features RCT views offending behaviour as involving decision making and the making of choices, which are constrained by time, cognitive ability and information, resulting in a 'limited' rather than a 'normal' rationality for the offender. The premise is that the decisions and factors that affect offender decision making vary greatly at both the different stages of the offence and among different offences. Cornish and Clarke (1998) therefore stress the need to be crime-specific when analysing offender decision making and choice selection, and to treat separately decisions relating to the various stages of involvement in offences. For example, treating decisions relating to offenders’ initial involvement in the offence, continuation and desistance separately from decisions relating to the event, such as choice of target. This, they claim, allows a more 'holistic' view of offender decision and choice making and a greater analysis from which to implement appropriate interventions. The RCT model Cornish and Clarke (1986) present a model to illustrate some of the decisions that an offender will make in the decision to commit a burglary. They suggest that the offender will ask themselves questions such as: which house offers the best target? Do the neighbours watch out for each other? How hard will it be to gain entrance? What sorts of goods are inside? How will I get out in a hurry? According to the model, free will is assumed (the classical theory perspective), but there are certain background and situational factors that might predispose someone towards crime. Background factors might include intelligence, upbringing and personality; situational factors might include peer pressure, drug dependency and the vulnerability of the target. The important point of RCT is that it views the committing of a crime as a series of decisions and processes made by the offender in the commission of that crime. http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/learningzone/rct.htm Further reading: Routine Activity and Rational Choice: Advances in Criminological Theory By Ronald V. Clarke, Marcus Felson; published by Transaction Publishers, 1993 13 6. Repeat Victimisation A growing body of evidence shows that certain people and places suffer repeated incidents of crime. Past victimisation predicts future victimisation and is, therefore potentially preventable Analyses of the British Crime Survey 2000, for example, have estimated that 4% of victims account for between 38 and 44% of all crime reported to the survey Many practitioners will be aware of working with victims or locations that have been repeatedly victimised. However we now know, as the British Crime Survey 2000 analyses suggest, that this is on a greater scale than was suspected. More positively, the research has found that the particular features of repeat victimisation make it predictable and therefore preventable. A substantial programme of research and development has demonstrated the scope for reducing crime by targeting preventive effort on victims and locations of repeat crime and disorder. More recent research has highlighted the value of targeting offenders who reoffend against the same people and places. A local strategy should encompass both preventive and detecting measures and will rely heavily on effective co-operation between agencies to prevent repeat victimisation. Tackling repeat victimisation has a number of attractions: it helps to reduce crime and disorder; it makes better use of limited resources by targeting them where they can be most effective it can help the police to target prolific offenders By reflecting the true nature of victimisation, it addresses people’s fear of crime and can stimulate improvements in the quality of service to victims Defining repeat victimisation Repeat victimisation occurs when the same person or place suffers from more than one incident over a specified period of time. While this broad definition may initially seem too broad to be helpful, in practice it allows for local analysis and definition of repeat victimisation problems. The Home Office Crime Reduction site toolkit is concerned with showing how to apply an understanding of repeat victimisation to different crime problems, in different environments. http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/toolkits 14 Repeat victimisation is: Predictable – once victimised, a person or place is more likely to be victimized again than one that has not. Furthermore, the risk of revictimisation increases the more a person or place has been victimised. Rapid – second and subsequent offences follows fairly rapidly after the ‘first’ but this heightened risk period declines swiftly over time Highest in high crime areas – certain areas have high crime rates not because more people are victimised, but because there is more victimisation of the same people The same offenders – more recent research has shown that the same offenders return to the same victims. Prevention measures should be targeted at those who have been victims, preferably after the first victimization. In addition, special attention should be paid to those people or places which have already experienced several incidents, as they are most at risk of further victimization. The extent of repeat victimisation Domestic burglary: one study showed that once a house had been burgled its chance of repeat victimisation was four times the rate of houses that had not been burgled before. Domestic violence: estimates are that only 10% of domestic violence to women involves an isolated event, and that the other 90% involves systematic beatings often with escalating violence. Motor Vehicle theft: a quarter of respondents experienced more than one incident. 8% of victims accounted for 22% of the incidents measured in the three surveys. Racial attacks: 67% of families in one estate in East London were repeat victims Crime on industrial estates: work in Trafford found that a quarter of premises on industrial estates accounted for three quarters of all burglaries on these estates School burglary and property crime: 98% of the total crimes recorded by 33 schools on Merseyside were repeat crimes Bullying: a study in a comprehensive school in Sussex showed that 9-10% of pupils had been bullied weekly or more Assaults: a study in an A&E department showed that 43% of victims of violence reported at least one previous assault, 27% reported involvement in more than two previous assaults, 7% of males reported more than ten previous assaults. For a number of reasons the extent and nature of repeat victimisation have tended to remain hidden, although many practitioners at a local level are aware of repeatedly victimised people and places. 15 The British Crime Survey (BCS) The recorded crime figures represent those offences recorded by the police. Not all offences are reported and not all reported offences are recorded. For that reason, the Home Office conduct the British Crime Survey. The British Crime Survey is a very important source of information about levels of crime and public attitudes to crime. The BCS measures the amount of crime in England and Wales by asking people about crimes they have experienced in the previous year. The BCS includes crimes, including those which are not reported to the police, so it is an important alternative to police records. The BCS (2000) highlighted that 4% of victims account for between 38 and 44% of all crime reported to the survey. The figures indicate that preventing repeat victimisation to zero will, for example, reduce burglary by 25% and domestic violence by 47%. The BCS 2000 also shows that if a person has been the victim of crime during the previous year, they have a much higher perception of risk of being the victim of various types of crime, than if they have not been a victim. Why are repeats hidden? The level and nature of repeat victimisation have tended to be hidden and there are a number of reasons for this. These are still relevant as they concern recording systems and the day-to-day working practices of crime reduction agencies. Although the following example concerns how repeat victimisation has been difficult for the police to identify, it is likely that the same issues will apply to other agencies. In the recording of crime by the police, several factors have contributed to the underestimation of its prevalence: Under reporting – it is well known that people do not report all the incidents they suffer. Successive British Crime Surveys have also established that some crime is reported to the police but remains unrecorded. Official data are particularly likely to under-estimate the extent of repeat victimisation, as the following example demonstrates. Computer systems – crime recording systems do not readily identify repeat victims. Working practices – police shift systems and unit boundaries mean that different officers are likely to deal with the same victim thus reducing the likelihood of links being made between incidents. 16 Issues for Crime and Disorder Partnerships to consider The experience of the police in identifying repeat victimisation has highlighted the difficulty of gaining an accurate picture of repeat victimisation. Questions to consider include: How can you tell whether the level of reported incidents represents the true level experienced by the community? It is well known, for example, that in cases of domestic violence, racial crime or school bullying that reported incidents represents only a small proportion of the actual experience of victims. Is there a system for recording that is capable of identifying the same victim or location experiencing a range of incidents? Many systems give each event a unique reference number rather than giving this to the person or place. This means that a series of events against the same victim cannot be readily identified. How do working practices within agencies help or hinder the identification of repeats? Aside from computer systems, are there other opportunities, for example, briefing meetings, for sharing information? How well do working practices and recording systems across agencies help or hinder the identification of repeat victims. A woman repeatedly beaten by her partner may have contact with her general practitioner, the local Accident and Emergency Department, the Housing Department, Social Services, Victim Support, the local women’s support organisation and the police. She may have reported different incidents to each of them. All these agencies are likely to have different ways of recording this information. Is there a way to link these events? The impact on repeat victims The impact of repeat victimisation on victims has only recently been addressed in the research. Repeat victims experience many different crimes, sometimes daily and it is recognised that much of the crime they experience is not reported to the police. The research on repeat victimisation has shown that victims do not ‘get used’ to crime, and often suffer emotional side-effects even when victimisation episodes appear individually trivial. It has been compared to a bereavement process where victims go through a number of stages after each incident and this applies to relatively trivial crimes as well as those viewed as more serious by society. The responses include: Anger towards perpetrators Feeling unsafe Social exclusion, where victims withdraw from social contact Poor health Lifestyle changes arising from fear: to protect themselves even where this causes inconvenience 17 The implications are important. A Scottish survey of repeat victimisation showed that many repeat victims had low expectations of what the police could do to help and this may have lead to failure to report future crimes. The fact that apparently trivial events can have a seriously detrimental effect on victims means that particular attention needs to be given to victim care by all the relevant agencies. Further reading: (K. Pease (1998) Repeat Victimisation: Taking Stock . Police Research Series. Paper No.90. London. Home Office http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fcdps90.pdf Home Office, Crime Reduction Toolkits: http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/toolkits/rv00.htm ‘Kings and Castles, Cavemen and Caves: The Impact of Crime on Male Victims‘– Imagination for Crime Prevention: Essays in Honour of Ken Pease: Crime Prevention Studies, Volume 21, (2007) with Shaw M. A focus on repeat streets: Simple2Start methodology http://www.crimepreventionassociates.co.uk/ This methodology was devised by a retired Police Officer Alan Edmunds. Alan has had 30 years policing experience in both uniform and detective commands, and was one of a small team responsible for helping Police Forces in England and Wales to create repeat victimisation strategies and adopt Problem Oriented Policing concepts. He also assisted in the interpretation of Crime and Disorder Act guidance in four Council partnership areas. He has co-authored three publications about repeat victimisation and successful partnerships and has contributed to others. As a Hampshire police staff Crime Prevention Officer in 2004, he and a colleague won both the UK Tilley POP Award, and the US Herman Goldstein award for excellence in Problem Oriented Policing for the work on Operation Cobra - a vehicle crime reduction project that is now firmly embedded with Hampshire Police. He has also acted as a consultant for the Home Office. The ‘Simple 2 Start’ methodology This is a relatively simple mechanism that has been routinely and successfully used focusing on the delivery of police / partnership resources / tactics or services, where the unit of count is the street rather than the home or person. Initial analysis showed 1% of streets hosted 10% of vehicle crime and 13% of streets accounted for half of the crime. Focused services of the police and partnership are then provided to the neediest places from the previous year whilst other rising streets are identified through a daily routine in order to act with sufficient intensity and over a sufficient period to make a difference. 18 The process aspires to be a basis for mounting routine problem-directed action by applying a systematic review process and tackling the chronic victimisation that affects the’ vital few’ (80-20 rule: The Pareto principle) victims or ‘repeat’ / ‘near repeat’ locations. This makes day to day management more effective all year, irrespective of changing priorities. Repeat victimisation in this format complements strategic and tactical thinking. The approach comprises agreed partnership activities, based upon problem solving analysis, to be delivered at Manageable Intervention Points (MIP’s) identified and monitored daily throughout the year. These activities are classifiable as ‘general’, ‘victim care’, ‘location change’, ‘offender management’ and ‘Recursive Problem Identification’. Each level is initially identified through the use of an approach referred to as the ‘Simple2start’ process and subsequently relies on a crude form of street based mapping not reliant on specific expertise. The process continues to be successful and has been attributable to the reduction of car crime in Hampshire, and has been applied to other volume crimes. Routine ‘proactive’ problem solving, repeat victimisation prevention and partnership motivation are at its heart. 19 7. Ten Principles of Crime Opportunity Theory In situational crime prevention (SCP) opportunity is considered to be a root cause of crime, and Professors Marcus Felson and Ron Clarke suggest that there are 10 ways that theory can assist when thinking about crime prevention. http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/learningzone/scpprinciples.htm The 10 principles of crime opportunity theory: 1. Opportunities play a role in causing all crime, not just common property crime – For example, studies of bars and clubs show how their design and management play an important role in generating violence or preventing it. 2. Crime opportunities are highly specific – For example the theft of cars for joyriding has a different pattern for opportunity than theft for car parts. Crime opportunity theory helps sort out these differences so responses can be appropriately tailored. 3. Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and space – Dramatic differences are found from one address to another even in a high crime area. Crime shifts greatly by the hour and day of the week, reflecting the opportunities to carry it out (see Routine Activity Theory). 4. Crime opportunities depend on everyday movements of activity – Offenders and targets shift according to their routine activities (e.g. work, school leisure). For example burglars visit houses in the day when the occupants are out at work or school. 5. One crime produces the opportunities for another – For example, a successful arson attack on an abandoned vehicle may encourage the offender to return in the future or a person who has their car stolen may feel justified in taking someone else's as a replacement. (see Repeat Victimisation Theory) 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities – For example easily accessible electrical items such as DVD players and mobile phones are attractive to burglars and robbers, (see 'hot products' by Ron Clarke) 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities – Products are most vulnerable in their 'growth' and 'mass marketing' stages, as demand for them is at its highest. Most products will reach a 'saturation' stage where most people have them and they then are unlikely to be stolen 20 8. Crime can be prevented by reducing opportunities – The opportunity reducing methods of situational crime prevention cut across everyday life, though they can be tailored to specific situations. It is firmly grounded in opportunity theory. 9. Reducing opportunities does not always displace crime – Wholesale displacement is very rare and many studies have found little if no crime displacement ( crime displacement theory) http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/learningzone/displacement_t heory.htm) 10. Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider declines in crime – Prevention measures in one area can lead to a reduction in another nearby, known as 'diffusion of benefits'. This is because offenders might overestimate the reach of those measures. http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/crimereduction024.htm Further reading Felson, M. and Clarke, R.V. (1998) Opportunity Makes the Thief. Police Research Series Paper 98, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit, Research, Development and Statistics Directorate. London: Home Office Ronald V Clarke (1999) Hot Products: understanding, anticipating and reducing demand for stolen goods; Home Office Police Research Series Paper 112 Niall Hamilton-Smith (2002) ‘Anticipated consequences: Developing a strategy for the targeted measurement of displacement and diffusion of benefits’: Evaluation in Crime Prevention: Crime Prevention Studies Vol 14 pp11-52 (Ed: Nick Tilley) 21 8. Types of crime prevention: Effective crime prevention is any action that causes a reduction in the level of criminal activity and the resulting harm, or in the number of criminal offenders and their victims: Crime prevention is often described by comparing with the medical model (see chart p 26) using primary, secondary, and tertiary methods where each type of prevention focuses on a specific developmental stage of crime. Primary prevention: Is about effecting conditions of the physical and social environment that provide opportunities for or precipitate criminal acts. This addresses the conditions in the natural environment that may lead to the development and prevalence of crime. For example, lack of street maintenance, broken windows, abandoned buildings broken down cars are a few examples of a disorganised community (see Broken Windows Theory; Kelling and Coles). Primary prevention seeks to directly alleviate these factors that may lead to crime. Secondary prevention: Engages in early identification of potential offenders and seeks to intervene before the commission of illegal activity. It attempts to prevent crime by focusing on at-risk offenders or potential opportunities that may foster criminal actions; the main tool used in secondary crime prevention is identification and prediction. There are many theoretical bases for the implementation of secondary crime prevention programs. Once we are able to identify potential places, people, situations, or opportunities that are at-risk for criminal activity it may be possible to predict and prevent any future criminal occurrence. Tertiary prevention: Deals with actual offenders and intervention. Unlike primary and secondary prevention focuses on prevention after a crime has occurred. The focus is to reduce the recidivism rate of criminals and insure that steps are taken so that a victim will not be re-victimised. The primary form of tertiary prevention in criminal justice is that of incapacitation. Although it does not prevent criminals from committing crimes once they leave prison, it does protect the larger population from present victimisation. Public health paradigm Primary prevention: identifies disease-creating general conditions of the environment and seeks to abate them (sewage treatment, small-pox vaccination, personal hygiene education). Secondary: identifies groups or individuals who have a high risk of developing disease or who have incipient cases of disease and uses 22 interventions with special treatment (i.e. chest x-rays in poor neighbourhoods, special diets, rubella vaccinations for prospective mums, dental checks). Tertiary: Works with individuals with advanced cases of disease, providing treatment to prevent death or disability (i.e. stomach pumping for poison; open-heart surgery; radio-therapy) or rehab for those with those with permanent disabilities (i.e. Braille training for the blind, use of prosthetic limbs, or pain relief for the dying). Further reading: Pease K. 2002, 'Crime Reduction', in M. Maguire, R. Morgan & R. Reiner (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Criminology, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 947-79. Cameron, M. & Laycock, G. 2002, 'Crime Prevention in Australia', in A. Graycar & P. Grabosky (eds), The Cambridge Handbook of Australian Criminology, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 313-31. Kelling, G and Coles C (1998) Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring and Reducing Crime in Our Communities: The Free Press, Touchstone 23 PUBLIC HEALTH PARADIGM PRIMARY SECONDARY Health Promotion Specific Protection Early Diagnosis Health education Personal hygiene Case finding General social and physical well-being programs Specific immunizations Screening Nutrition Genetics Periodic examinations Job safety engineering Selective examinations TERTIARY Disability Limitation Rehabilitation Treatment for advanced disease Community placement and support Retraining Environmental sanitation CRIMINOLOGICAL PARADIGM PRIMARY SECONDARY Environmental design Early identification Reform Rehabilitation General social and physical well-being programs Pre-delinquent screening Community treatment Training Crime prevention education Neighbourhood programs Institutional treatment Surveillance Individual intervention TERTIARY Support Punishment Incapacitation Institutional custody 24 9. Situational Crime Prevention (SCP) techniques for reducing the opportunity for crime http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/learningzone/scptechniques.htm The techniques of situational crime prevention have evolved over the past 15 years, in response to advances in our understanding of crime, crime reduction theory and the changes in crime itself. This has meant that the number of techniques has increased as a consequence. Clarke and Homel then went on to modify the original techniques, by adding the category of 'removing the excuses for crime'. This now reflected the application of situational measures to offences such as tax evasion, traffic offences, sexual harassment and theft of employer's property, which were as much the province of 'ordinary citizens' as 'hardened offenders’. Ways to Modify a Situation While the Problem Analysis Triangle helps to analyse problems, situational crime prevention provides a framework for intervention. By assessing the opportunities that specific situations offer for crime, situational crime prevention has identified five main ways in which situations can be modified. These are: 1. Increasing the effort the offender must make to carry out the crime. 2. Increasing the risks the offender must face in completing the crime. 3. Reducing the rewards or benefits the offender expects to obtain from the crime. 4. Reducing or avoiding provocations that may tempt or incite offenders into criminal acts. 5. Removing excuses that offenders may use to rationalise or justify their actions. These five approaches to reducing opportunity have also been expanded to 25 techniques of situational crime prevention (see p.29). 1. Increasing the Effort Increasing the efforts offenders have to make in order to commit a crime has become one of the effective mechanisms used in crime prevention, for example: ‘target hardening’ measures, anti-theft measures in vehicles, or in homes and commercial premises. What research has shown however that one measure alone, i.e. ‘target hardening’ is not always effective as an intervention and it is often a combination of approaches that will have the most impact. 25 2. Increasing the Risks According to interviews with offenders, they worry more about the risks of being apprehended than about the consequences if they are caught. This makes sense from their point of view since there is very little they can do to avoid punishment if caught, but they can do a lot to reduce the risks of being captured by being careful (see also Rational Choice Theory). This is why situational crime prevention seeks to increase the risks of being caught and makes no attempt to manipulate punishment. 3. Reducing the Rewards Offenders seek to benefit from their crimes, an these benefits may not simply be material, as in theft because there are many other rewards of crime, including sexual release, intoxication, excitement, revenge, respect from peers and so forth. An important strand of situational crime prevention is therefore to understand the rewards of any particular category of offending and to find ways of reducing or removing them. 4. Reduce the Provocations Studies of prisons and pubs have found that crowding, discomfort and rude treatment provoked violence in both settings. Therefore, an important category of situational prevention is to reduce provocations to crime, such as efficient queuing systems, crowd reductions and the prohibiting of racial incitement. 5. Remove the Excuses The fifth category of situational techniques recognises that offenders often rationalise their conduct to “neutralise” what would otherwise be incapacitating feelings of guilt or shame. They make such excuses as: “He deserved it,” “I was just borrowing it,” and “I only slapped her.” These excuses may be especially important for ordinary people responding to everyday temptations to evade taxes, drive when drunk, sexually harass junior employees and steal employers’ property. Further Reading Clarke, R.V. ed. (1997) Situational Crime Prevention: successful case studies (2nd edition). New York: Harrow and Heston. Clarke, R.V. and Eck, J. (2003). Become a Problem-Solving Crime Analyst. London: Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, University College London. http://www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk/publications/other_publications/55steps 26 Within the framework of the 5 opportunities to reduce crime are a collection of 25 crime reduction techniques as shown below: 25 Techniques of Situational Crime Prevention Increase Effort Increase Risk Reduce Rewards Reduce Provocation Remove Excuses 1. Target Harden. 6. Extend guardianship. 11. Conceal targets 16. Reduce frustrations and stress. 21. Set rules. 2. Control access. 7. Assist natural surveillance. 12. Remove targets 17. Avoid disputes. 22. Post instructions. 3. Screen exits. 8. Reduce anonymity. 13. Identify property 18. Reduce temptation and arousal. 23. Alert conscience. 4. Deflect Offenders. 9. Use place managers. 14. Disrupt markets 19. Neutralise peer pressure. 24. Assist compliance. 5. Control tools/ weapons. 10. Strengthen formal surveillance. 15. Deny benefits. 20. Discourage imitation. 25. Control drugs and alcohol. 27 Examples of how these 25 techniques are used are shown below: EXAMPLES IN USING THE 25 SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION TECHNIQUES Increase the Effort Increase the Risks Reduce the Rewards Reduce Provocations Remove Excuses 1. Target harden · Steering column locks and immobilisers · Anti-robbery screens · Tamper-proof packaging 6. Extend guardianship · Take routine precautions: · go out in group at night, · leave signs of occupancy, · carry phone · “Cocoon” neighbourhood watch 11. Conceal targets • Off-street parking • Gender-neutral phone Directories • Unmarked security trucks 16. Reduce frustrations and stress · Efficient queues and polite service · Expanded seating · Soothing music/muted lights 21. Set rules • Rental agreements • Harassment codes • Hotel registration 2. Control access to facilities · Entry phones · Electronic card access · Baggage screening 7. Assist natural surveillance • Improved street lighting • Defensible space design • Support whistleblowers 12. Remove targets • Removable car radio • Women’s refuges • Pre-paid cards for pay phones 17. Avoid disputes · Separate enclosures for rival sports game fans · Reduce crowding in pubs · Fixed cab fares 22. Post instructions • “No Parking” • “Private Property” • “Extinguish camp fires” 3. Screen exits · Ticket needed for exit · Export documents · Electronic merchandise tags 8. Reduce anonymity · Taxi driver IDs · School uniforms 13. Identify property · Property marking · Vehicle licensing and parts marking · Livestock branding 18. Reduce emotional arousal • Controls on violent pornography • Enforce good behaviour on football/sports field • Prohibit racial abuse 23. Alert conscience • Roadside speed display boards • Signatures for customs declarations • “Shoplifting is stealing” 4. Deflect offenders · Street closures · Separate bathrooms for women · Disperse pubs/bars 9. Utilize place managers • CCTV for buses • More assistants for convenience stores • Reward vigilance 14. Disrupt markets • Monitor pawn/second hand shops • Controls on classified ads. • License street vendors 19. Neutralize peer pressure • “Idiots drink and drive” • “It’s OK to say No” • Disperse troublemakers at school 24. Assist compliance • Easy library checkout • Public lavatories • Litter bins 5. Control tools/ weapons • Disabling stolen cell phones • Restrict spray paint sales to juveniles 10. Strengthen formal surveillance • CCTV • Burglar alarms • Security guards 15. Deny benefits • Merchandise tags • Graffiti cleaning • Speed humps 20. Discourage imitation · Rapid repair of vandalism · Censor details of modus operandi 25. Control drugs and alcohol • Breathalyzers in pubs • Server intervention • Alcohol-free events 28 10. Crime Prevention through Environment Design (CPTED): Crime research reveals that: Crime is specific and situational The distribution of crime is related to land use and transportation networks Offenders are often opportunistic and commit crimes in places they know well Opportunities arise out of daily routines and activities Places with crime are also places without observers or guardians Crime prevention through environmental design evaluates the crime environment and features of the environment that facilitate crime or undesirable behaviour, and attempts to remove or reduce these opportunities by changing various aspects of both environmental design and use of the environment (‘designing out’ crime). CPTED considers: Building design Site layout and site amenities like lighting and landscaping Facility location and the influence of surrounding land uses Target hardening and security measures (or a lack thereof) Routine use, and activity schedules Rules and policies governing use and behaviour The three main objectives are: 1. To control access by creating both real and perceptual barriers to entry and movement, such as fences and hedges that define boundaries; driveways and paths that guide movement through an area; gates and doors that limit points of entry; signs for direct movement that provide information defining appropriate activities and schedules; consistent use of colours or materials in buildings, light fixtures and fittings create identity, and design features may be supported by locks, alarm systems or guards. 2. To take advantage of design to provide opportunities to see and be seen. This includes opportunities to see from adjacent properties or the site perimeter, and be able to view parking areas and buildings. These design elements need to be supported by potential observers (they actually need to look for and report unusual behaviour), and by policies and procedures, for example, related to landscape maintenance. 3. To use design to define ownership and encourage maintenance. The design should provide cues about who belongs and what they are allowed to do. 29 Administrative support in the form of rules and regulations regarding use and maintenance can be critical to the success of various design applications. CPTED is a crime prevention programme focusing on design, not safety, and on productive use, not security. Design features are “supported” by locks, guards and alarms. Target hardening and security measures are not the primary means for improvement. CPTD and problem solving in a crime and disorder context consider a broad array of problems, not just crime, and require systematic analyses of events, conditions and factors that contribute to crime and disorder. They both generate strategies that are tailored to a problem or location, and engage both communities and partnership actions. The only difference being is that CPTED focuses on environmental responses and modifications. Further reading: Zahm, Diane (2006). Using Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design as a ProblemSolving Tool. Community Oriented Policing Services; Problem Solving Tools Series No8 http://www.cpted.net/resources/UsingCPTED.pdf The ACPO Crime Prevention Initiatives Limited manages Secured by Design and similar crime prevention initiatives at a national level. http://www.securedbydesign.com/ Home Office Crime Reduction Site: Think Thief- A Designer's Guide to Designing Out Crime http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/business/business32.htm 11. Developing interventions As situational tactics are rooted in research showing the significance of opportunity in the generation of criminal behaviour, they are probably most useful in strategies that target problems concentrated on particular places, victims, products or methods. Ron Clarke's typology of opportunity reducing techniques, highlights the underlying change mechanisms (see Section 12) through which situational measures can bring about their effects. Whilst accepting that no situational measure provides a panacea, it is important to look at the skills needed to decide on tactics and ways of sustaining effects, given that many crime reduction tactics have a characteristic life-cycle. Strategies involving a coherent blend of tactics have great promise, for example 'crackdown and consolidation' and 'weed and seed'. These mix enforcement, to bring about short-term impacts, with measures liable to produce longer-term changes in the wake of the short-term measures. It is suggested that implementing a strategic approach to crime reduction and problemsolving depends on a strong strategic planning capacity, good data and an ability to analyse it (understanding the story of the event), and a willingness and capacity to apply leverage, where necessary, on those best placed to act to reduce crime. 30 Drawing mainly on research from the United States and the United Kingdom, there are six key concepts: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Aims describe overall problem-solving or crime reduction aspirations e.g. to reduce burglary. Problem-specification comprises a more detailed and evidenced statement of an aim e.g. reduce burglary by tackling repeat victimisation - having established that this is a major issue in the project area. Tactics describe what will actually be done to tackle the problem. Mechanisms refer to the ways in which tactics will bring about change. Context comprises the place, time, social organisation etc within which the tactics will activate change mechanisms. Replication involves adopting (and importantly) adapting approaches that have been found effective in one context, such that they will work similarly when implemented in another place. Further reading: Nick Tilley and Gloria Laycock (2002) Crime Reduction Research Series Paper 11 Bowers, K., & Johnson, S.D. (2005). Using Publicity for Preventive Purposes, In Nick Tilley (Ed.) Handbook of Crime Prevention: Theory, Policy and Practice 12. The mechanisms of change When considering whether to use an intervention, it is important to try to understand how it is going to work. What is the purpose of the intervention? Is it likely to change the circumstances surrounding the victimised location or victim? Many interventions are developed on a lack of understanding of the problem, or how the intervention is going to work. For example, what is the ‘mechanism of change’ when installing a gated system to a community suffering from vandalism and arson attacks? Is it the gates themselves that will prevent further attacks or is it the perception of the gates on the potential offender? Understanding how an intervention will work Description of intervention Activity 31 Mechanism of change Purpose of intervention Outcome Understanding the mechanisms of change Description of intervention Activity Install new street light along a particularly dark road Fire audits for businesses by Fire Service Summer Youth Schemes 32 Mechanism of change Purpose of intervention Outcome Street becomes lighter at night, thereby increasing local residents perceptions of safety when out at night Reduced fear of street crime among local residents. The improved opportunity for natural surveillance may deter offenders from committing crime in this location Raises awareness of fire risks and leads to owners taking prevention measures Reduced incidence of street crime Use leisure time legitimately, allowing no time to commit crime / disorder Reduction in number of business premises fires. Immediate outcome: Survey of fire audit recipients to see if action was taken Reduction of youth crime Immediate outcome: Levels of crime and disorder are lower than expected during scheme hours. 13. Stakeholders Although the Crime and Disorder Act (1998) put partnership working on a statutory footing, there has been a need to consolidate effective practice in order to try and ensure there is a common standard in partnership delivery. The Home Office guide ‘Delivering Safer Communities: A guide to effective partnership working’ outlined a new set of requirements that formed part of the ‘Hallmarks for Effective Partnerships’. These 6 Hallmarks provide partnerships with a ‘checklist’ of skills in order for them to become aware of areas in need of improvement. http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/guidance_for_effective_partnerships.pdf The six Hallmarks of Effective Partnership are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Empowered and effective leadership; Visible and Constructive accountability; Intelligence-led business processes; Effective and responsive delivery structures; Engaged communities, and Appropriate skills and knowledge Whilst the current guide provides some useful support in the development of partnership working, and does include a section on ‘Solving Problems’- (p.95-100), it appears to give little guidance as to how Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships (CDRP’s) might identify the ‘right partners for the right job’. This is a critical aspect to partnership working; how do we identify who are the right partners for our problem solving interventions? How do we see our partners? Do we always know what they are capable of? Do we use them wisely? Each stakeholder brings different knowledge, expertise and leverage to addressing a problem, and the more stakeholders identified, the more resources you may have to address the problem. However some areas have found that the problem-solving effort progresses most efficiently if only a small number of stakeholders (a core group) work on a specific problem, whilst other, more peripheral stakeholders often have something to contribute at specific stages of the project, but not throughout the entire effort. http://www.popcenter.org/Library/RecommendedReadings/Tips.pdf Further reading: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community-Oriented Policing Services. (1998). Problem-Solving Tips: A Guide to Reducing Crime and Disorder Through Problem-Solving Partnerships. 33 Professor Ken Pease OBE, once said ‘the answer to one officer’s problem is likely to be in the pocket of another’, and this is often true of partnership working. We have to try to understand what the benefits and potential pitfalls are, for in order to deal with the issues surrounding partnership working, we must try to understand them first. Some of the potential advantages and issues surrounding partnerships are highlighted below: Potential advantages of partnership working Pooling of Resources Stronger focus on objectives Avoids unnecessary duplication A united front Partnerships Community and private sector involvement Sharing of good practice Partnership brand image Holistic approach Potential partnership problems Excess meetings Differences in core business Lack of coordination Partnerships Sharing of information Inconsistant at strategic levels Personalities/ Egos There are no insurmountable issues within these ‘potential’ problems, but we do need to understand our partners better, how do they function, how are they governed, what are their remits and priorities? Statutory obligations provide a reason for working in partnership, but we each need to ensure that respect, recognition and motivation are provided along the way. 34 Definition of stakeholders: Within our partnerships there will be those who become key stakeholders at different stages of working. One definition of a stakeholder is ‘Those who depend on the organisation for the realisation of some of their goals and in turn the organisation depends on them for the full realisation of its goals’. Confusing as this may first sound we do need to understand not only what our stakeholders (partners) can give to us, but what are they likely to gain in return. It may be useful to consider a number of initial basic questions about potential stakeholders such as: • • • • • • • Who are they? What are their objectives? How powerful are they? How interested are they? How can they help? How can they be got on side? What is the risk if they are not? We need our partners to ‘want’ to work with us, and gaining their commitment is essential for success. Thy are important, and should be engaged from the outset, and this means ensuring good communication processes are in place and finding ways of motivating them, so that involvement is maintained. This is not necessarily about attending long meetings (nothing will de-motivate a partner quicker than them attending a 2/3 hour meeting, where he/she has not been included, or where they felt they had nothing to contribute). But it is about maintaining regular contact, providing frequent updates, defining clear roles, and managing time more effectively. Further reading: Home Office Partnerships Mini Site: http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/regions/regions00.htm 35 STAKEHOLDER POWER We need to think about how important are our stakeholders are, and what type of power can they wield over our projects and interventions? For example, if they were to reduce their level of input, how damaging would this be to our project? It is useful to ‘plot’ potential stakeholders into an analysis map in order to see where they fit (if at all) into your project/intervention framework. Questions to ask: Which stakeholders have power? For example ask the question: ‘If I were to pursue this strategy/project with disregard to the views of this stakeholder, could they stop me?’ These could be your key players, so you may need to spend more effort on them. How interested are they in your project? You may think to ask the question: ‘How high is this strategy/project in their priorities – are they likely to actively support or oppose it?’ These people may not be key players but they could influence those in power. Are they powerful, but their levels of interest are low? Something could happen to make them change and then they could become influential to you. It is import to understand which stakeholders you may need to spend most time on and to consider whether they in favour of your strategy or intervention, and how much power do they yield. It may help you to understand if you’ve got a problem or have a chance of effective partnership working? Examples: 36 Government has power: but they can be influenced Public has no power: but can have influence Media has informal power: but does have influence STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS MAPPING DEGREE OF POWER DEGREE OF POWER DEGREE OF INTEREST 37 HIGH HIGH LOW Key players Potential blockers Those in favour ‘champions’ (need to keep happy) (need to influence) Those in favour ‘cheerleaders’ ‘Potential saboteurs’ (need to keep informed) (need scrutiny but minimal effort) LOW 14. PROJECT MANAGEMENT In this chapter, we take an overview of the key elements of project management and show how they link to monitoring and evaluation. As a starting point, we need to define what is meant by a ‘project’. A project is any piece of work, large or small, that brings together different activities with a view to achieving a set of tangible outcomes. Community safety and crime reduction projects will usually consist of activities that are designed to bring about a change in the current situation with a view to improving community safety / reducing crime. Such projects can take many forms, depending on the situation they are trying to change. They may, for example, focus on: · Changing working practices: for example, reducing paperwork, improving the effectiveness of existing practices. · Changing the local environment: for example, improving street lighting or reducing the signs of physical disorder like graffiti. · Changing individual behaviour: for example, tackling the offending behaviour of criminals or teaching /training members of the public to take practical crime prevention measures. These kinds of project share a common goal – the reduction in a certain type of crime or improvement in the local environment. Regardless of what the project aims to achieve, it will usually consist of the following characteristics: · It has a clear beginning, middle and end · The work requires a focused team, drawing on different skills from team members · A clear set of outcomes that can be evaluated · The process of achieving these outcomes is not routine on-going work. Establishing a system that will deliver something in a routine way in future may, however, be the purpose of a project · No existing structure can deliver the outcomes It should be clear that projects are dynamic – they change over time. A project manager will be expected to anticipate and respond to changes and make decisions to cope with it. Good decisions are obviously more likely if they are informed by accurate information about the operation of the project. 38 Key project concepts Good monitoring and evaluation depends on clarity in planning from the very beginning of a project. It is important to define, early on, a project’s: · · · · Aims Objectives Interventions Key stages Aims A project’s aims should describe, simply and concisely, what the project is intended to achieve. This description should focus on what will change as a result of the project. As such it should describe a project’s outcome rather than the process it will follow. Ideally any aim should include a problem / beneficiary / timescale, for example: “To reduce the number of robbery incidents [problem] in Anytown town centre [beneficiary] within 6 months [timescale]” Objectives Objectives give a tighter focus than the broad aims of a project. They should be directly linked to the aims but refer to more specific results that will flow from the projects. Ideally such objectives should be specific, measurable, achievable, realistic and have some timescale to their achievement. They can refer either to desired outcomes or outputs, for example: “To reduce the number of robbery incidents in Anytown high street within six months, by undertaking 50 hours of high visibility patrols in the area (intervention) and to deter offenders by increasing their perceived risk of detection (mechanism)”. Key stages The activities involved in an intervention can sometimes be broken down into a number of key stages that reflect important groups of tasks. This is particularly important when an output takes a long time to produce. Key stages can be used to mark significant points to monitor progress in the delivery of a long term project. Key stages are also relevant to the management of evaluations (e.g. development of spec, fieldwork, analysis may all be key stages). 39 Project management concepts These project management concepts are a crucial link to any evaluation: · · · · If you don’t know what the aim is, how do you know if the project has been successful? If you don’t know what the objectives are, how do you know if the project has delivered as expected? If you don’t explain how the interventions will work, how do you know if they’ve had an effect? If you don’t know what your key stages are, how do you know if the project is still on track? Project constraints The project manager will need to balance four key constraints to complete the tasks associated with a project. These link directly and importantly to the priorities for monitoring. Time Cost Activities Objectives Resource Quality 40 · Time: A project should be time-limited; with a clear start and end date. The end date determines when the project should be completed or handed over to others as a new element of routine work. · Cost: A project will often (although not always) have a budget within which it should be completed. · · Resources: As well as a financial budget, a project will usually require other resources for its successful completion. These might include staff, office space and equipment. · Quality: Every project will have a quality standard that will determine whether the tasks have been completed to an acceptable level. This will often be an implicit part of the project, but is nonetheless essential to bear in mind. Using the key constraints we can define the role of project management as being: “the management of costs and other resources with a view to completing a project within the available time and to an acceptable quality”. Good project management involves monitoring all of these four constraints: Costs: It is essential to monitor the cash flow through a project to ensure that the funding for the project is spent as planned. Anticipated spend should be forecast and then actual spend monitored against this. This will quickly identify any significant under or overspends allowing for remedial action if necessary. Resources: A project will depend on a broad range of resource inputs for its successful operation. A close monitoring of these resources is necessary to identify where resource limits may impact on the project. Project staff is likely to be one of the most significant resources to a project. Monitoring staff time on project tasks and activities, levels of staff absence and sickness, should quickly highlight where staff input is too low or misdirected. Time: A project plan will identify the appropriate sequencing of project tasks and activities to form a project timetable. It is essential to monitor how long it takes to complete these tasks to ensure that the project remains to timetable and meets the project completion date. Quality: The success of a project will depend fundamentally not only on the completion of tasks and activities to time and spend but to an appropriate quality. It will be necessary to clearly identify quality standards for key project tasks and activities likely to impact on project success. Quality monitoring should then focus on these key tasks to ensure that the standard is consistently and continuously maintained. 41 The Dynamic Project Lifecycle The lifecycle of a project and its management can be divided into four distinct phases. These phases are sequential- one follows on from the other, but also dynamic- each phase is subject to review and alteration and can result in phases being repeated in an attempt to iron out problems that emerge. Project Dynamic Lifecycle Agree project brief Define objectives Select intervention Analyse problem Define aim Yes No Identify tasks Redefine Timetabling Review and evaluation Replan Exit strategy Risk analysis Costings Problem Phase 4 Define outputs Yes Monitor progress No No Agree project plan? Phase 2 Planning and scheduling Handover and closure Phase 1 Conception and definition Yes Executing the project work Phase 3 Adapted from Young (1996) ‘The Handbook of Project Management: A Practical Guide to Effective Policies and Procedures’ 42 · Phase 1 – Conception and definition is the stage at which the initial project scoping is undertaken. The overall project aim is established, analysis of the problem to be addressed is undertaken and interventions that are designed to tackle an aspect of the problem are formulated. This phase concludes with the production and agreement of a project brief which sets out in broad terms what the project is about. · Phase 2 – Planning and scheduling: tasks associated with completing interventions are identified and ordered into a sequence to form a timetable. This is also the stage at which risk analysis and contingency planning is undertaken and when the project costings are calculated. The final aspect of this phase is the production and agreement of a detailed project plan. · Phase 3 – Executing the project work involves commencing tasks associated with interventions and defining outputs for subsequent monitoring of the project. It also involves dealing with any problems that emerge as a result of the monitoring. These problems will usually be relatively minor, involving a degree of replanning (such as updating the timetable due to slippage in completing tasks). However, in some cases, problems may be more fundamental (such as the realisation that the planned intervention is unworkable) and in these cases it may be necessary to return to basics by redefining interventions. · Phase 4 – Handover and closure is the final stage in the process of project management. In this phase, the project is closed down. Sometimes the work will just conclude when the tasks are completed. In other cases, the work that has been established by the project will be handed over to others and will become part of their mainstream business. In both scenarios, the process of closing down a project needs to be managed carefully and requires an exit strategy. Before the project is considered to have formally ended, the project manager should undertake a review of the project in order to learn the lessons for future projects of this kind. Arrangements for monitoring and evaluating the project should take place in parallel with this lifecycle: Phase 1: Consideration of purpose of evaluation and key research questions Determination of types of evaluation to be undertaken Phase 2: Identification of all key monitoring measures (input, output, outcome) Set up monitoring system Design evaluation Preparation of evaluation proposal Phase 3: Collect baseline data prior to the commencement of intervention Begin monitoring Begin process evaluation data collection if applicable Phase 4: Complete process and outcome evaluation and analysis Write final evaluation report and disseminate results 43 15. MONITORING AND EVALUATION Monitoring and evaluation should be considered as an integral and essential element of good project management. It should be considered at the very earliest stages in the development of a project. Indeed, having to think about what monitoring and evaluation will look like should help directly in clarifying the purpose of the project. If the project lacks clear aims and objectives, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to come to any realistic conclusions about whether the project has been successful. MONITORING Effective monitoring helps to identify what types of crime and disorder reduction programs work, and which do not, plus helps to identify the possible requirement for extra resources to help make them work, or a rethink in their implementation strategy. The lessons learnt through monitoring can be used to help in the design of future crime and disorder reduction initiatives. Monitoring the effect of crime and disorder reduction initiatives within focus areas can at the simple level require analysing if crime or disorder has increased or decreased. Dependent on the type of project(s) undertaken, a more detailed analysis would include other issues such as: Where has there been a change; Whether there has there been change in the nature of the crime or disorder activity. This will include analysing if the reduction of one crime type has been offset by an increase in a different crime type, changes in offending behaviour (e.g. time of day, day of week), and changes in the type of victims; The impact of the conviction of certain offenders who previously were active within the focus area; Field surveys that report on any change in public attitudes, victimisation or safety issues. It is essential that systems for monitoring are put in place at the beginning of a project. This stage of a project can be a crucial time when the design and plan of a project are first ‘tested’ and practical and operational difficulties in project implementation can come to light. Without monitoring the project will be running ‘in the dark’ and it will not be possible to accurately diagnose any such difficulties accurately. It may also be more difficult to set up monitoring systems once the project is up and running. 44 ‘.....We can draw an analogy with sailing a ship to better understand monitoring. Monitoring can be understood to be similar to keeping an eye on the wind direction, the weather, the level of food and fuel provisions and the compass while steering a ship across the ocean. Keeping a regular check on all these elements ensures that the ship follows the correct direction and the crew reach the planned destination safely and successfully..’. Rick Brown, Evidence Led Solutions, Monitoring and Evaluation Course http://www.els.org.uk); There are four key things that need to be monitored: Inputs: this focuses on the resources that are necessary for a project. This will include project staff time and expertise, money and equipment. Process: how is the work undertaken? Who did what? What are the activities that are undertaken? Are they being done in the expected way? Outputs: what is produced? This refers to the product ‘on the ground’ resulting from the various activities. Outcomes: What effect has the project had? What has changed as a result of the project? Benefits of monitoring There are a number of good reasons to set up monitoring systems: As a requirement of any funding that a project has secured. Monitoring provides funders with the information to see how the money has been spent and what it has produced. It can be used as a tool for accountability. It helps to keep the progress of the project on track. For example, monitoring information will show whether key activities and tasks are being done, within the time scheduled and to the planned cost. Keeping the project within budget. Any project will have a limited financial budget. Monitoring should help ensure that the planned and projected month-by-month spend over the life of the project is achieved. Remember, under-spends can be as problematic as over-spends. Making changes and improvements. Throughout the life of a project it may well be necessary to make changes (‘tweaks’) to the way in which the project is being delivered. Monitoring provides the information to both identify the need for change (identifying something not working or going wrong) and suggest what to change (ways to improve the workings of the project). 45 Assessing whether the project is having an effect. Monitoring provides the basic information to know whether anything is happening as a result of the project’s existence. Setting up accurate and comprehensive monitoring systems makes evaluation much easier. Evaluation draws on much of the information collected for monitoring: if this information is inaccurate, incomplete or missing this will limit and constrain the ability of the evaluation to reliably judge whether the project has been successful. EVALUATION Evaluation involves assessing, in a systematic way, whether a particular project has met its stated aims and objectives- did it do/achieve what it was set up to do? It provides the basis for a judgement about the effectiveness and efficiency of a project at a certain point in time (which may well be at the completion point of a project). Anyone involved in the delivery or management of a project will have an informed view about the success, or otherwise, of that project. But this view will inevitably be partial (no one person will know everything about a project) and subjective (influenced by that person’s views of and experiences with the project). Evaluation involves the systematic collection and analysis of a broad range of data and information. This provides for a more complete and objective picture to be drawn about a project and as such can give a more impartial and independent judgement. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that an evaluation will be able to provide a clear ‘black and white’ picture of what did and did not work with a project. Community safety and crime reduction projects are aimed at tackling difficult and complex social problems. The projects will inevitably be operating within a wider context that will also impact on whether and how the project is working. All these factors will make it difficult for an evaluation to provide exact answers or come to definite conclusions. But conducted properly and carefully an evaluation will provide the best basis for judging the success, or otherwise, of a project. Types of evaluation There are three broad types of evaluation which may be used on their own or in combination. Decisions about which types of evaluation are most appropriate should be guided by the kinds of questions that you wish to answer through the evaluation (see Appendix 3) Process: A process evaluation focuses on developing an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how a project is operating- what is happening and why. There will often be important differences between how 46 a project is planned and how it works in practice. It is essential to understand these differences if there are plans to replicate the project elsewhere. Also, an evaluation of the project’s impact will be improved by understanding the process by which that impact is achieved. Impact: An impact, or outcome, evaluation focuses on the final results of the project- what difference or change has the project made? It involves a set of measures that will identify the project’s impact. The expected impact or outcome will depend on the original aim of the project. But it will also be necessary to consider any unintended impacts (positive or negative) that may have resulted from the project. Cost-effectiveness: Many evaluations fail to take account of the cost of the project when assessing its impact. But particularly when funding for projects is limited, it is clearly important to measure a project’s impact against its cost. Judgments can then be made about whether the benefits that flow from a project are worth what it costs. This is of general importance when concerning the spending of public money and of more particular importance to the funders of projects. They will wish to see projects demonstrate that they provide ‘bang for the buck’. Benefits of evaluation There are a number of reasons why it may be desirable, necessary or useful to conduct an evaluation: It provides evidence of achievement. Project managers or members will be regarded by others as natural advocates for the success projects. A well conducted evaluation provides the basis for credible evidence (as opposed to opinion) for a project’s success. To guide ongoing improvements. No project will be perfect and evaluation can identify both where problems occur and inform the development of possible solutions. To measure ‘value for money. Funders in particular will want a quantified measurement of the benefits of the project related to its cost- what, in other words, pound-for-pound does the project deliver. This will be essential where similar projects are compared to see which delivers the most benefit for least cost. Helps lever in more resources. Evaluation can help identify where resource constraints are impacting on the success of a project. This can be the basis for negotiating additional resource. Equally, where evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of a project, this can attract additional funding to increase the size, reach or lifetime of a project. 47 Improve future projects. Good evaluation should produce clear learning both about how a project works and the impact it can achieve. This learning should be maximized through clear dissemination of evaluation findings. The development of future projects should be informed by this to avoid repeating mistakes and building on the successes. Identify what worked and what didn’t. It will inevitably be the case that a project’s success will not be all-encompassing. Evaluation will allow you to unpick the nature of a project’s impact to identify what worked and what didn’t. This is commonly expressed as evaluation identifying ‘what worked, for whom and why’. Identify intended and unintended consequences. Setting up a project involves clearly identifying its aim and objectives. This will inform the focus of any evaluation of impact. However, inevitably a project will also lead to unintended effects. A well-designed evaluation will allow you to identify these unintended consequences. As a means of accountability. Community safety and crime reduction projects will likely be funded wholly or mostly by public sources of funding. As such, there is an expectation and often a requirement to demonstrate that the funding has been used appropriately and effectively. Evaluation provides the basis for demonstrating this accountability. Further reading: Passport to Evaluation (2002) Home Office http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/cctv/cctvminisite14.htm An Introduction to Monitoring and Evaluation Course: Dr Rick Brown, Evidence Led Solutions http://www.els.org.uk/ 48 APPENDIX 1 PROBLEM SOLVING CHECKLIST Problem identification/scanning Are repeat calls for service and repeat crimes routinely scanned? Are efforts to identify and analyse past and emerging problems routine? Are simple emerging problems allocated to individuals for their response, either on their own or in conjunction with other agencies? Are more complex emerging problems identified/prioritised in routine discussion amongst partners? Do partnerships routinely try to anticipate and forestall future problems? Causal analysis/Analysis Are adequate data collection and sharing arrangements in place to be used in problem identification and analysis? Are local analysts available who are familiar with relevant theory, crime reduction literature, and analytic techniques to identify and analyse problems? Do analysts have the hardware and software they need to do their job? Do analysts have a competent source of advice and supervision for their analytic work? Do analysts work in partnership with same agency colleagues responsible for dealing with problems, and with those in other agencies and their analysts? Do staff in supervisory positions have training and experience in analysis? Tactic or treatment/Response Do partnerships addressing agreed problems have sources of informed advice on possible promising responses? Do members of partnerships have a joint budget to implement or pump prime responses to agreed problems? Are members of partnerships adaptable in their service delivery patterns where doing so may comprise a promising response to a problem? Do those allocated problems have sources of informed advice on possible promising responses? Are external sources of advice in problem-solving being drawn on when needed? Output monitoring/Assessment Are all problem-solving efforts within the BCU/authority area systematically monitored? Are initiatives adjusted in the light of monitoring? Y/N Is an evaluation strategy in place? Are reputable independent evaluators used where significant resource allocation decisions turn on evaluation findings? Is care taken not to give unqualified support to extending initiatives that have not been subject to independent competent evaluation? Are provisions in place to conduct ‘light’ in-house or student evaluations where only suggestive findings are needed? Incentivisation/enablement Do members of partnerships encourage their staff routinely to participate in problem-solving? Are individuals allocated problems given training in their analysis and in forms of response? Are individuals allocated problems given reasonable time to address them? Are specialist skills being drawn on and used in problem-solving? Does the partnership provide a forum for mutual leverage in problem-solving? Does the partnership have agreed ways of applying leverage where necessary to third parties in implementing responses to problems? Is the work of the partnership monitored regularly and members held to account for their problem-solving? Are individual agencies being performance measured for their local problem-solving work as well as their attention to national priorities? Do supervisors help subordinates with problem-solving and monitor their problem-solving work? Are staff oriented to problem-solving, with selection, training and rewards to encourage and enable them? Do senior members of agencies know of and understand the problems being addressed? Problem-communication to and from other levels Is day to day problem-solving monitored and are efforts made to identify broader problems? Are problems identified within the area that may reflect broader problems passed ‘up’ for analysis and attention at ‘higher’ levels? 50 APPENDIX 2 Selected Comparisons Between Problem-Oriented Policing and Neighbourhood Policing Principle Problem-Oriented Policing Community-Oriented (Neighbourhood) Policing Primary emphasis Substantive social problems within police mandate Engaging the community and local partners in the policing process When police and community collaborate Determined on a problem by problem basis Always or nearly always Emphasis on problem analysis Highest priority given to thorough analysis Encouraged, but less important than community collaboration Preference for responses Strong preference that alternatives to criminal law enforcement be explored Preference for collaborative responses with community and partners Role for police in organising and mobilising community Advocated only if warranted within the context of the specific problem being addressed Emphasizes strong role for police and partners Importance of geographic decentralisation of police and continuity of officer assignment to community Preferred, but not essential Essential Degree to which police share decisionmaking authority with community Strongly encourages input from community while preserving ultimate decision-making authority to police Emphasizes sharing decision-making authority with community Emphasis on officer skills Emphasizes intellectual and analytical skills Emphasizes interpersonal skills View of the role or mandate of police Encourages broad, but not unlimited role for police, stresses limited capacities of police and guards against creating unrealistic expectations of police Encourages expansive role for police to achieve ambitious social objectives APPENDIX 3 PROCESS AND IMPACT EVALUATION 52 NOTES NOTES 54