Center for Public Opinion
Dr. Joshua J. Dyck and Dr. Francis Talty, Co-Directors
http://www.uml.edu/polls
@UML_CPO
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
UMass Lowell/7News
Poll of Massachusetts Voters
Survey produced by Professor Joshua J. Dyck, Ph.D.
Field Dates: 10/21/14-10/25/14
N=1001 Massachusetts Registered Voters (RVs)
N=601 Likely Voters (LVs)
Adjusted Margin of Error: +/- 3.6% for RVs; +/-4.5 for LVs
Margins of error have been adjusted to include for design effects resulting from weighting and
survey design features.
Note: not all percentages will sum to 100 due to rounding error
Methodology in Brief
Data collection by live interviewers from Abt SRBI, Inc. This is a probability sample of 1001
Massachusetts Registered Voters (RVs) collected using an overlapping dual-frame random digit dial
design with a 65% landline/35% cell phone split. Using the model detailed on page 2, 601 of these RVs
were identified as Likely Voters (LVs).
The data were first weighted to address the imbalance that occurs because some respondents have a
greater probability of being included in the frame if they have multiple landlines or both a landline and a
cellular number. To ensure a representative sample, we collected demographic data on all respondents
who were residents of New Hampshire and at least 18 years of age (including non-registered voters) so
that our overall sample can we weighted to data on age by gender, education, and race from the 2012
American Community Survey for Massachusetts. The youngest male/female method was used for inhousehold selection.
UMass Lowell is a public institution and releases surveys as a source of public information. We report
our questionnaire in our topline document which includes likely voter model questions and wording. We
offer a complete methodology report, as well an extensive set of crosstabs. Our goal is complete
transparency in the reporting of our findings. If there is something in the release you do not see, please
contact Professor Joshua J. Dyck (joshua_dyck@uml.edu; @drjjdyck).
Likely Voter Model (Asked of all RVs)
Q3
As you know, a general election will be held across the country in November which includes
races for Governor and U.S. Senator in Massachusetts. How closely are you following news
about candidates running for office in Massachusetts— very closely, somewhat closely, just a
bit, or haven’t you really been following it much at all?
29%
33
21
17
1
Q4
How often would you say that you vote when there’s an election for Governor – always, almost
always, just sometimes, hardly ever, or never? If you have just registered to vote for the first
time, please tell me.
64%
15
8
3
5
4
0
Q5
Very closely
Somewhat closely
Just a bit
Haven’t really been following it much at all
(VOL) Don't know/no answer
Always
Almost always
Just sometimes
Hardly ever
Never
Just registered to vote for first time
(VOL) Don't know/no answer
Many people don’t vote in elections unless the race for President is on the ballot. At this point,
would you say you’ll definitely NOT vote in the upcoming election for Governor of
Massachusetts and U.S. Senator, PROBABLY NOT vote, may or may not vote depending upon
how you feel at the time, PROBABLY vote, or DEFINITELY vote in the upcoming election? If you
have already voted or early voted, just tell me.
5%
5
6
13
68
2
1
Definitely not vote
Probably not vote
May or may not vote
Probably vote
Definitely vote
Already voted
(VOL) Don’t know/No Answer
Likely voters are defined as those who are following news of the election “very closely,” or “somewhat
closely” (Q3=1,2), “always” or “almost always” vote when there’s an election (Q4=1,2), and say that they
“definitely will vote,” or have “already voted” in the election (Q5=5,6). Voters who report that they
“just registered” (Q4=6) were classified as likely voters if they are following news of the election “very
closely” (Q3=1) and say that they “definitely will vote,” or have “already voted” in the election (Q5=5,6).
Among partisans (using leaned party ID), 51% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans and 51% of
Independents are classified as “Likely Voters.”
2
Q6
If the election for GOVERNOR of MASSACHUSETTS was being held today would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE: Charlie Baker, the Republican, Martha Coakley, the Democrat,] [RANDOMIZE:
Evan Falchuk, an Independent, Jeff McCormick, an Independent, OR Scott Lively, an
independent]?
Q6a
Q6b
As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward: (asked to those who answered 8/9 in Q6)
Did you vote for ? (if the respondent reports already voting, Q5=6)
LV
45%
41
3
2
1
8
RV
AUG
32%
41
1
7
*
20
RV
38%
42
2
2
1
15
Charlie Baker, the Republican
Martha Coakley, the Democrat
Evan Falchuk, an independent
Jeff McCormick, an independent
Scott Lively, an independent
(VOL) Other/Don’t know/unsure/Refused
(crosstabs are of LVs)
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Evan Falchuk
Jeff McCormick
Scott Lively
Undecided/Other
Democrat
16
73
3
2
*
6
Party ID Leaned
Independent Republican
50
86
10
5
8
2
8
*
*
3
23
5
Democrat
14
80
2
1
*
3
Income
Education
Below
$50K
$50k$100k
$100k &
up
30
48
5
4
1
12
45
42
3
1
3
6
52
40
3
1
*
4
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Evan Falchuk
Jeff McCormick
Scott Lively
Undecided/Other
Gender
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Evan Falchuk
Jeff McCormick
Scott Lively
Undecided/Other
Male
Female
51
36
2
3
1
6
38
46
4
1
1
10
1829
19
38
6
28
*
10
Party ID Unleaned
Independent Republican
50
95
27
*
5
3
3
*
2
*
13
2
3039
49
40
*
*
*
12
Age
4049
49
40
6
*
2
3
3
High
School or
Less
43
43
3
4
1
6
Some
College
College
Degree
46
33
6
2
1
12
47
38
2
2
2
9
Post
Graduate
Degree
41
52
2
*
1
5
Ideology
5064
44
40
3
1
2
11
65+
Liberal
44
44
3
2
*
8
13
75
3
3
1
5
Moderate Conservative
48
31
5
2
2
12
76
17
1
1
*
5
As you know, Massachusetts voters will decide on 4 ballot measures this Fall.
Q8
Question 1 proposes a law that would change the gas tax in Massachusetts. If the election was
being held today, how would you vote, YES to eliminate the requirement that the state’s gas tax be
adjusted annually based on the Consumer Price Index, or NO to make no changes to the existing gas tax
law?
8a. As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward: YES to eliminate the requirement that the state’s gas tax be
adjusted annually based on the Consumer Price Index, or NO to make no changes to the existing gas tax
law?
IF NEEDED: The Consumer Price Index measures the rate of inflation.
LVs
40%
54
6
RVs
39%
52
9
Yes, eliminate the requirement
No, make no changes to the existing gas tax law
(VOL) Don’t know/unsure/undecided/Refused
(crosstabs are of LVs)
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Party ID Leaned
Democrat Independent Republican
27
57
52
66
32
44
7
11
3
Party ID Unleaned
Democrat Independent Republican
28
42
58
62
53
40
9
6
2
Income
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Below
$50K
$50k$100k
$100k &
up
36
57
7
40
56
4
41
55
5
Gender
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Education
Male
Female
41
56
3
39
52
9
1829
47
53
*
High
School or
Less
39
56
5
Age
30- 40- 5039 49 64
37 41 45
62 50 48
2
8
6
4
Some
College
College
Degree
38
56
6
42
54
4
Post
Graduate
Degree
86
14
*
Ideology
65
+
32
62
6
Liberal
30
61
8
Moderate Conservative
40
53
8
53
46
1
Q9
Question 2 proposes a law to expand the state’s beverage container deposit law to require
deposits on containers for all non-alcoholic, non-carbonated drinks with certain exceptions, increase the
associated handling fees, and make other changes to the law. If the election was being held today, how
would you vote, YES to expand the beverage container deposit law, or NO to make no changes to the
existing law?
9a. As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward: YES to expand the beverage container deposit law, or NO to
make no changes to the existing law?
LVs
26%
72
2
RVs
27%
70
3
Yes, expand the beverage container deposit law
No, make no changes to the existing law
(VOL) Don’t know/unsure/undecided/Refused
(crosstabs are of LVs)
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Party ID Leaned
Democrat Independent Republican
36
22
13
61
78
87
4
1
1
Party ID Unleaned
Democrat Independent Republican
38
22
8
58
76
92
4
2
*
Income
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Below
$50K
$50k$100k
$100k &
up
24
71
5
29
69
1
29
70
1
Gender
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Education
Male
Female
29
70
1
23
73
4
1829
56
44
*
High
School or
Less
18
82
*
Age
30- 40- 5039 49 64
40 23 25
47 75 74
13
2
1
5
Some
College
College
Degree
18
81
1
30
66
3
Post
Graduate
Degree
39
57
4
Ideology
65
+
23
75
1
Liberal
42
54
4
Moderate Conservative
21
78
1
15
84
2
Q10
Question 3 proposes a state law that would prohibit casinos, any gaming establishment with slot
machines, and wagering on simulcast greyhound races. If the election was being held today, how would
you vote, YES to ban casino gaming including slot machine gambling and betting on simulcast greyhound
races in Massachusetts, or NO to make no changes to the existing law?
10a. As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward: YES to ban casino gaming including slot machine gambling
and betting on simulcast greyhound races in Massachusetts, or NO to make no changes to the existing
law?
RVs
LVs
RVs
AUG14
39%
35%
36%
Yes, ban casino gaming
60
63
59
No, make no changes to the existing law
1
2
5
(VOL) Don’t know/unsure/undecided/Refused
(crosstabs are of LVs)
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Democrat
40
59
1
Party ID Leaned
Independent Republican
38
35
58
65
3
*
Democrat
42
57
1
Income
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Education
Below
$50K
$50k$100k
$100k &
up
43
56
1
29
71
*
45
55
1
Gender
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Male
Female
41
58
1
36
62
1
1829
25
70
5
Party ID Unleaned
Independent Republican
37
31
62
69
1
*
3039
46
54
*
High
School or
Less
22
77
2
Age
40- 5049 64
36 43
64 56
*
1
6
Some
College
College
Degree
35
63
2
43
57
*
Post
Graduate
Degree
55
45
*
Ideology
65
+
35
64
1
Liberal
46
53
1
Moderate Conservative
33
66
1
39
60
1
Q11
Question 4 proposes a law that would change the rules about earned sick time for employees in
Massachusetts who work at least 11 hours a week. If the election was being held today, how would you
vote -- YES to allow employees in Massachusetts to earn and use sick time under certain conditions or
NO to make no change in the laws regarding earned sick time?
11a. As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward: YES to allow employees in Massachusetts to earn and use
sick time under certain conditions or NO to make no change in the laws regarding earned sick time?
LVs
60%
35
5
RVs
64%
30
5
Yes, allow employees to earn sick leave
No, make no changes in the laws regarding sick time
(VOL) Don’t know/unsure/undecided/Refused
(crosstabs are of LVs)
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Democrat
80
17
3
Party ID Leaned
Independent Republican
44
37
48
57
8
6
Democrat
80
16
3
Income
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Education
Below
$50K
$50k$100k
$100k &
up
64
29
7
62
35
4
59
38
3
Gender
Yes
No
Undecided/Other
Male
Female
54
44
2
66
26
7
1829
64
36
*
Party ID Unleaned
Independent Republican
55
35
40
57
5
9
3039
77
21
2
High
School or
Less
57
39
4
Age
40- 5049 64
70 55
28 40
2
5
7
Some
College
College
Degree
60
36
5
53
37
9
Post
Graduate
Degree
71
28
1
Ideology
65
+
57
35
8
Liberal
79
18
4
Moderate Conservative
62
34
4
34
58
8
Q12
I’m going to read the names of some people in politics. Please tell me if overall you have
a favorable or unfavorable view of each person. If you have never heard of the person,
please just say so.
Favorability Ratings – LIKELY VOTERS
Barack Obama
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Elizabeth Warren
Deval Patrick
Favorable
Unfavorable
51
52
50
48
52
45
35
43
44
42
Heard of/No
opinion
3
11
7
5
4
Never Heard of
DK/NA
*
2
1
2
1
Favorability Ratings – REGISTERED VOTERS
Barack Obama
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Elizabeth Warren
Deval Patrick
Q13
Favorable
Unfavorable
53
46
48
49
55
41
31
37
37
36
Heard of/No
opinion
5
16
12
9
6
Never Heard of
DK/NA
1
8
3
5
3
Thinking about the State Government on Beacon Hill in Boston, do you think it’s better when the
Governor and the Legislature are controlled by the same political party or is it better if control is
divided between Democrats and Republicans?
20%
65
15
Same political party
Divided between Democrats and Republicans
(VOL) Don’t know/No Answer/Refused
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Evan Falchuk
Jeff McCormick
Scott Lively
Undecided/Other
Better when Government is…
Unified
Divided
18
58
70
28
3
4
2
2
1
1
6
7
8
Q17-Q23
Thinking about the two major party candidates for Governor, [ROTATE: Charlie Baker,
the Republican and Martha Coakley, the Democrat], which candidate………….?
Baker vs. Coakley issues/traits
LIKELY VOTERS
Cares more about people like you
Is personally more likeable
Will do a better job on the economy
Will do a better job when it comes to education
Is more independent minded
Baker
Coakley
40
50
53
35
47
41
32
33
48
32
Both
Equal
8
7
4
3
6
DK/NA/
REF
12
11
11
14
15
Both
Equal
8
7
3
4
5
DK/NA/
REF
19
16
18
20
23
Baker vs. Coakley issues/traits
REGISTERED VOTERS
Cares more about people like you
Is personally more likeable
Will do a better job on the economy
Will do a better job when it comes to education
Is more independent minded
Q24
Coakley
33
44
45
28
41
40
34
34
49
32
Which candidate has run a better campaign? [ROTATE SAME AS Q17: Baker or Coakley?]
LVs
42%
29
14
15
Q26
Baker
RVs
34%
31
12
22
Baker
Coakley
Same/both equal (VOL)
(VOL) Don’t know/No Answer/Refused
Regardless of who you are planning to vote for, who do you think will be the next Governor of
Massachusetts: [ROTATE SAME AS Q17: Charlie Baker, Martha Coakley], [ROTATE: Evan Falchuk,
Jeff McCormick, or Scott Lively?]
LVs
43%
45
*
12
RVs
36%
48
*
15
Charlie Baker
Martha Coakley
Other Candidate
(VOL) Don’t know/No Answer/Refused
9
Demographics and Political Variables
Weighted percentages; numbers are for Registered Voter Sample
Party ID
Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind Leaning Dem
Pure Independent
Ind Leaning Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
24
12
18
16
16
7
8
Party Registration
Democrat
Independent/Else/DK/NA
Republican
33
55
12
Gender
Male
Female
Age
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-64
65 and up
12
21
42
17
8
Political Interest
A great deal
A fair amount
Only a Little
None
27
46
22
5
14
12
20
31
22
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
Very Liberal
Somewhat Liberal
Moderate
Somewhat Conservative
Very Conservative
46
54
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
81
5
5
5
Education
High school or less
Some College
College Degree
Post-Graduate Degree
28
28
24
19
Income
Less than $50k
$50k-$100k
More than $100k
10
34
30
35