Chapter 17 Financial Statement Analysis Topics Covered Financial Ratios DuPont System Using Financial ratios Measuring Company Performance The Role of Financial Ratios Financial Statements Income Statement - Financial statement that shows the revenues, expenses, and net income of a firm over a period of time. Common-Size Income - Statement Income statement that presents items as a percentage of revenues. Balance Sheet - Financial statement that shows the value of the firm’s assets and liabilities at a particular time. Common-Size Balance Sheet - Balance sheet that presents items as a percentage of total assets. Type of Financial Ratios Leverage ratios show how heavily the company is in debt. Liquidity ratios measure how easily the firm can lay its hands on cash. Efficiency or turnover ratios measure how productively the firm is using its assets. Profitability ratios are used to measure the firm’s return on its investments. Financial Statements The use of fixed cost financing, either debt or preferred stock, is called financial leverage. Financial leverage presents a debt/equity financing choice. Creditors, owners, and suppliers are interested in the extent to which a firm has sought the tax-shielded benefits from financial leverage producing debt. Leverage ratios are two types: balance sheet ratios comparing leverage capital to total capital or total assets, and coverage ratios which measure the earnings or cash-flow times coverage of fixed cost obligations. Leverage Ratios The long-term debt ratio measures the proportion of the capital structure or total capitalization that is made up of debt and lease obligations. The higher the ratio the greater the use of financial leverage, posing the higher risk/return situation for investors long term debt Long term debt ratio = long term debt + equity The debt to equity ratio measures the amount of long-term debt to equity or the amount of leverage capital in relation to the equity cushion under the debt Debt equity ratio = long term debt equity Leverage Ratios The total debt ratio measures total liabilities, current and long-term, relative to total assets or the proportion of assets financed by debt A coverage ratio, such as the times interest earned ratio, measures an amount available relative to amount owed. How many times is the obligation covered? The cash coverage ratio broadens the numerator to cash flow from operations relative to the interest expenses Liquidity Ratios Liquidity ratios attempt to measure the ability to pay obligations such as current liabilities and the pool of assets available to cover the obligations. Liquidity is the ability of an asset to be converted to cash quickly at low cost. Current assets (the pool of circulating cash assets available to be allocated to pay bills) minus current liabilities(the pool of obligations the business must pay in the near future) is an analytical amount called net working capital (NWC). NWC is a rough measure of the current assets left over if the current liabilities were paid. Liquidity Ratios The NWC to total assets ratio estimates the proportion of assets in net current assets, another name for NWC: Net working capital to total assets ratio Net working capital = Total assets The current ratio is the classic liquidity ratio, but is merely a variation of the idea above—what pool of circulating assets is available relative to the pool of current obligations Current ratio = current assets current liabilities Liquidity Ratios Continuing the theme of assets available to pay obligations, the quick or acidtest ratio eliminates inventories, the least liquid current asset, from current assets The cash ratio eliminates inventories and accounts receivable from current assets to review the cash assets relative to the current liabilities Liquidity Ratios The interval measure of liquidity measures the firm’s pool of liquid, quick assets(above), to the daily expenditures from operations and gives an estimate of the number of days’ obligations that are circulating in the quick assets. The more days, the greater the ability to meet obligations Efficiency Ratios The asset turnover ratio measures the sales activity derived from total assets, or the revenue generated per dollar of total assets. The asset turnover is also an important component of asset profitability studied later, measuring the revenue per dollar invested Efficiency Ratios The average collection period is the estimated number of days it takes to collect accounts receivable The inventory turnover ratio, measures the number of times the value of inventory turns over in a period Profitability Ratios • Profitability refers to some measure of profit relative to revenue or an amount invested. The net profit margin measures the proportion of sales revenue that is profit available for sources of funds (EBIT-tax). net income Net profit margin = sales Operating profit margin = net income interest sales Profitability Ratios A good performance ratio is the return on total assets (current and fixed), or the EBIT - tax earned per dollar of average assets Net Income Interest Return on assets = average total assets The return on equity measures the profitability of the common stockholder’s equity or return per dollar of invested equity capital net income - preffered dividends Return on equity = average equity Profitability Ratios The proportion of earnings that is paid out as dividends is called the payout ratio Payout ratio = dividends earnings earnings - dividends earnings = 1 - payout ratio Plowback ratio = The plowback ratio times the return on equity (ROE) is an estimate of the growth rate in common equity from internally generated earnings, or the sustainable growth rate in assets that the business can support from internal earnings without changing the total debt/total asset ratio Growth in equity from plowback = earnings - dividends earnings Market Value Ratios stock price PE Ratio = earnings per share P0 Div1 1 Forecasted PE ratio = x avg EPS1 EPS 1 r - g dividend per share Dividend yield = stock price Market Value Ratios Price per share = P0 Div 1 = r - g stock price Market to book ratio = book value per share Tobins Q = market value of assets estimated replcement cost The DuPont System A breakdown of ROE and ROA into component ratios Net Income interest ROA = assets earnings available for common stock ROE = equity The DuPont System sales Net Income interest ROA = x assets sales asset turnover Operating profit margin The DuPont System ROE = assets sales Net Income interest Net Income x x x equity assets sales Net Income interest leverage asset ratio turnover Operating profit margin debt burden Using Financial Ratios Industry All manufacturing Food products Textiles Petroleum/coal Chemicals Drugs Machinery Computers/electronic Transportation equip. Beverages/tobacco LT Debt, Assets 0.19 0.28 0.23 0.15 0.19 0.25 0.19 0.11 0.17 0.28 Interest Coverage 4.13 3.65 2.92 3.64 4.27 9.44 4.64 4.52 2.22 5.25 NWC Assets 0.07 0.09 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.13 0.14 0.01 –0.02 Quick Asset Ratio Turnover 0.91 0.81 0.92 1.00 0.72 0.76 1.02 1.31 0.72 0.70 0.93 1.37 1.47 1.34 0.59 0.87 0.89 0.66 0.94 0.63 Oper Prof. Margin (%) 6.88 6.20 4.35 3.31 10.37 13.53 8.04 5.30 3.94 14.76 Return on Assets (%) Return on Equity (%) 6.37 8.50 6.39 4.45 6.13 11.72 7.19 3.52 3.69 9.24 15.76 17.80 8.39 18.14 7.31 59.14 14.82 10.06 13.12 27.62 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining and Trade Corporations, December 2004. Payout Ratio 0.31 0.36 0.23 0.25 0.33 0.29 0.17 0.20 0.30 0.51 MVA & Economic Profit Market Value Added = The difference between the market value of common stock and its book value Economic Profit = capital invested multiplied by the spread between return on investment and the cost of capital. EP Economic Profit ( ROI r ) Capital Invested Residual Income & EVA Residual Income or EVA = Net Dollar return after deducting the cost of capital EVA Residual Income Income Earned - income required Income Earned - Cost of Capital Investment © EVA is copyrighted by Stern-Stewart Consulting Firm and used with permission. Measuring Performance Benchmark Financial Ratios Company Valuation Ratios P/E ratio (TTM) Price to book (MRQ) Price to cash flow (TTM) Financial Strength Quick ratio (MRQ) Current ratio (MRQ) LT debt to equity (MRQ) Total debt to equity (MRQ) Interest coverage (TTM) Profitability Ratios (%) Operating margin (TTM) Net profit margin (TTM) Management Effectiveness (%) Return on assets (TTM) Return on equity (TTM) Efficiency Receivable turnover (TTM) Inventory turnover (TTM) Asset turnover (TTM) Industry Sector S&P 500 22.35 6.68 17.17 21.66 6.25 16.85 20.66 7.25 17.19 22.06 4.04 15.93 0.95 1.28 0.18 0.26 31.49 0.87 1.19 0.31 0.54 29.74 0.65 1.26 0.77 0.97 17.14 1.21 1.71 0.6 0.76 12.59 17.97 14.27 20.91 17.01 17.02 11.49 21.97 14.03 15.88 32.84 14.96 31.06 11.31 33.28 7.63 20 9.37 8.67 1.11 10.08 7.49 0.92 13.39 6.75 1.09 10.26 13.29 0.96 Ratios PEPSICO INC (NYS) Sector: Consumer/Noncyclical | Industry: Beverages (nonalcoholic) Measuring Performance Market to Book Ratio MVA ($millions) Return on Cost of Capital (%) Capital (%) Year avergae capital ($million) EVA ($million) Microsoft 7.40 204,168.00 32.90 11.70 31,090.00 6,456.00 Wal-Mart 2.90 169,927.00 13.20 6.20 86,822.00 5,920.00 Johnson & Johnson 3.40 135,584.00 18.10 8.20 57,833.00 5,682.00 Intel 4.00 98,189.00 18.60 13.70 32,394.00 1,645.00 Coca-Cola 4.80 83,080.00 21.30 6.40 21,166.00 3,116.00 IBM 2.20 79,894.00 9.00 11.20 67,369.00 –1,506 Merck 2.10 37,921.00 17.90 8.00 36,887.00 3,705.00 Dow Chemical 1.00 25,403.00 5.90 6.50 44,639.00 –299 Delta Air Lines 1.00 4,090.00 –1.0 –6.7 27,888.00 –2,155 Note: Economic value added is the rate of return on capital less the cost of capital times the amount of capital invested; e.g., for Microsoft, EVA = (.329 – .177) × $204,168 million Source: Data provided by Stern Stewart & Co. Financial Ratios and Default Risk Three-Year (1998–2000) Medians Operating income/sales (%) Free cash flow/sales (%) EBITDA int. + div. coverage Total liabilities/net worth (%) EBITDA/total assets (%) Total debt/market capitalization (%) Historical default rate (%) AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC 24.6 14.8 4 70.3 22.2 0 0.5 23.4 123.6 21.2 8.1 1.3 138.8 16.3 17.2 2.3 14.7 5.6 4.5 152.6 13.7 27.5 6.6 15.9 3.9 3 198.7 12.9 43.5 19.5 13.9 10.9 3.9 18.1 7.8 4.11 9.4 -0.9 1 -208.3 6.9 79.7 54.4 Note: EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Sources: Default rates from “Statement of Standard & Poor’s on Credit Rating Agencies to SEC,” Public Hearing, November 2002; all other data from Standard & Poor’s. 1.3 1.7 206.9 10.3 55.8 35.8