Daily Call
Newspapers Highlights
January 28, 2008
Fertilizer Statistics FY’07
Country may miss textile export target:
Total urea off-take declined 6.07% to 4.91m tons in FY’07 as compared
The country may miss the textile export
to 5.24m tons in FY’06 due to 14.8% decline in dispatches in Dec’07 to
715m tons as against 839m tons in Dec’06.
target of US$11.4b for FY’08 as compared
to US$10.4b of the last fiscal year. (BR)
Current account deficit swells to over
US$6b: Pakistan’s current account deficit
swells to US$6.14b in HY’08 on account of
trade deficit and interest payments. (BR)
in the Hyderabad district. (BR). The discovery comes under the Zone-III area,
Urea and DAP Offtake
bad:
The
OGDC
has
discovered
10.7mmcf/d gas and 155 bpd oil flows in
its exploratory Pasakhi East Well, located
Research
DAP prices. Moreover, a subsidy of Rs470/bag could not compensate
farmers to buy sufficient DAP as we have mentioned previously.
? Urea off-take increased 0.7% to 1.51m tons in first three months of
Rabi 2007 over 1.50m tons in Rabi 2006 due to higher demand for subsequent application after sowing of wheat . On the other hand, DAP offtake declined 36.4% to 620k tons in first three months of Rabi 2007 as
compared to 975k tons in Rabi 2006.
OGDC discovers Oil & Gas in Hydera-
000 tons
FY'07
FY'06
4,917
1,386
5,235
1,505
Dec'07
Dec'06
and it would have an impact of Re+0.05
on EPS of OGDC. (IFSL)
Oil prices: The Nymex future for crude oil
stood at US$90.06 per barrel at 9:26am
Invest & Finance Securities Limited
? DAP off-take also declined 7.9% in FY’07 to 1.38m tons as compared
to 1.51m tons in FY’06 while 54.1% decrease in off-take of DAP was
also observed in Dec’07 over Dec’06 primarily due to steep surge in
Urea
DAP
Urea
DAP
715
91
Chg (%)
-6.07%
-7.89%
Chg (%)
839
197
-14.8%
-54.1%
Pakistan time. (Bloomberg Energy Prices)
Review of Basel- II: The Brazil’s central
DAP and Urea Prices
bank chief said the time was now right for
? Local DAP prices increased 59.1% to Rs1,386 per bag in Dec’07 as
the review of international Basel-II framework on how much capital banks should
hold to match risks they face. (Dawn)
compared to Rs871 per bag in Dec’06 while the FOB price of DAP
(Jordan) increased 63.7% to US$470/ton in Dec’07 as compared to
US$287/ton in Dec’06.
? The price of the Sona Urea in local market increased 7.3% to Rs569/
bag in Dec’07 as against Rs530/bag in Dec’06. The increase was observed in Dec’07 when price surged by 4.0% due to preference given
by farmers to urea over DAP on the back skyrocketing prices of DAP.
International urea (Arabian Gulf) prices increased 38.4% in Dec’07 to
US$360/ton as against US$260/ton in Dec’06.
Outlook for Rabi Season
The demand for urea is expected to remain high in Rabi season due to
requirement of urea for 2nd application with first irrigation on wheat crop.
? Urea off-take during Rabi season is estimated at 2.5m tons as
against the total availability of 2.9m tons while DAP off-take is estimated at 0.74m tons in Rabi season as against the total availability of
1.02m tons.
Asad Abdul Razzaq
asad.r@investfinance.com.pk
Tel: 9221-2276968
1
Market Statistics
KSE Statistics
Market Capt.
US$68.12b
KSE-100 Index
25-Jan-08
Rs4252.20b
12 m
13,856.4 Amount (Rs b)
Last Closing
13,719.2 Volume (m)
48.3
557.3
137.2 Average Rate
1.0%
12 mths Chg %
1.4%
10.8%
4.2b, 10.7%
12 mths Low
10,899.7 PPL
4.0b, 10.7%
Trading Volume
Ready
Futures
251.7 Open Int. (Rs b)
Futures
Total
2.7b, 10.7%
11.93
Last Day Open Int. (Rs b)
251.7 Open Int. (m sh.)
11.53
96.75
YTD Average
248.9 Top Gainers
Top Losers
12 mths Average
264.1 ENTL ( + 5.0%)
AHL (- 3.8%)
PACE (+ 4.9%)
DSFL (- 2.7%)
12 mths High
524.6 TRG ( + 4.8%)
SPL (- 2.4%)
12 mths Low
59.1 NIB ( + 4.3%)
DSL (- 2.3%)
Global Markets
Index
Origin
DOW JONES New York
NIKKIE-225
Tokyo
DAX
Frankfurt
FTSE-100
London
CAC-40
Paris
SSEC
Shanghai
SMSI
Madrid
SENSEX
Mumbai
KS11
Seoul
IPC
Mexico
AORD
Sydney
BVSP
São Paulo
RTS
Moscow
OXMS
Stockholm
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
Strait Times
Singapore
KLSE
Kuala Lumpur
MERVAL
Buenos Aires
CCSI
Cairo
(91.65)
978.23
Top Inflows
USA
10.43%
10.95%
3 years PIB
9.87%
5.2b, 10.8%
14,814.9 POL
12,983.8 OGDC
10.55%
12 months Kibor
12 mths High
12 mths Average
YTD Flow
9.85% 10.33% FY'07 Flow
6 months Kibor
10.01%
6.5b, 10.8%
AHSL
Jan'07
3 months Kibor
Amount (b), Rate
25.6% NBP
SCRA Position (m US$)
Current
Top 5 CFS Stocks (last day)
YTD Chg %
Interest
Rates
Continuous Funding System
Current Closing
Chg
Chg %
41.0%
Other Domestic Market Indicators
9.30%
240.01
Kuwait
44.84
Luxembourg
11.58
Camyan Island
6.10
5 years PIB
10.15% 9.70%
10 years PIB
10.65%
10.20%
Exchange Rates
Jan'07
Current
Chg %
US Dollar
62.42
2.53%
60.88
Top Outflows
UK
218.33
Australia
47.84
Important Board Meetings
Arif Habib Ltd
28-Jan-08
Honda Atlas Cars
28-Jan-08
Dawood Hercules
28-Jan-08
Euro
91.90
Fauji Fertilizer Company31-Jan-08
79.51
15.58% Unilever Pakistan
12-Feb-08
Yen
0.58
Shell Pakistan
13.73% Packages Ltd
12-Feb-08
0.51
Yuan
8.67
Kot Addu Power
10.59% Packages Ltd
14-Feb-08
7.84
14-Feb-08
14-Feb-08
Commodities
Current
4,107.9
13,629.2
6,816.7
5,869.0
4,878.1
4,761.7
1,423.4
18,361.7
1,692.4
27,379.9
5,886.3
57,463.0
2,033.1
312.7
25,122.4
3,159.5
1,405.4
1,982.7
3,304.5
Last 12 mths
Chg
Chg
-1.0%
-2.5%
4.1%
-22.2%
-0.1%
2.1%
-0.1%
-6.4%
-0.8%
-13.0%
0.9%
65.2%
7.0%
-8.5%
6.6%
28.6%
1.8%
22.4%
-1.9%
1.8%
5.0%
2.3%
6.0%
28.6%
2.3%
9.2%
0.7%
-19.2%
6.7%
21.5%
3.6%
5.0%
1.6%
20.2%
0.8%
-3.0%
3.5%
39.6%
Index
Origin
Gold
London
Silver
London
Copper
London
Oil
OPEC Basket
Natural Gas
Nymex
Coal
South Africa
Wheat
India
Sugar
India
Cotton
Karachi
Urea
Black Sea
Current
921.25
1,653.00
7,119.00
84.58
7.98
97.17
1,108.40
1,375.00
3,200.00
365.00
Last 12 mths
Chg
Chg
3.3%
1.1%
0.4%
-0.1%
4.8%
-3.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
-3.4%
42.0%
23.5%
22.2%
66.4%
38.6%
94.4%
-5.5%
-16.1%
25.5%
30.8%
Invest & Finance Securities Limited
12th Floor, Corporate Towers, Technocity Building,
Hasrat Mohani Road, Off. I.I. Chundrigar Road. Karachi.
Tel: 9221- 2276932-35
Fax: 9221- 2276969
website: www.investfinance.com.pk
2
Disclaimer: This report is for information purposes only and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. The material is based on information we
believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee that it is accurate and complete. Invest & Finance Securities Ltd. will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement herein or for any omission.