Supply Chain Management & Business Financial Performance Joseph Francis, Executive Director SCC © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 1 | 7 March 2012 Supply Chain is Directly Connected to Company Value The Supply Chain Impacts . .. The Knobs & Levers • Improve customer service and response • Optimize inventory flow, utilization & productivity Revenue Profit Expense • Best-in-class customer relationships • Differentiated service capabilities Value Working Capital • Best-in-class strategic supplier partnerships • Leverage of outsourcing of business processes • Unique supply chain models © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | & Shareholder Value 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | Capital Efficiency Fixed Capital 2 | 7 March 2012 HOW DO YOU EAT AN ELEPHANT? © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 3 | 7 March 2012 What is an Elephant? © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 4 | 7 March 2012 What is a Supply Chain? Product Design DCOR™ Sales & Support CCOR™ Supply Chain SCOR ® © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 5 | 7 March 2012 Customer processes Supplier processes Product/Portfolio Management How Many Supply Chains? • • We use a tool called the Supply Chain Definition Matrix to define the supply-chains within an enterprise Column Generation: › • Region 1 Segment A The columns in the matrix are focused on demand e.g. channels or segments or customers Group 1 Region 2 Segment B X Group 2 X Group 3 X Segment C Segment D X X Row Generation: › The rows in the matrix are focused on supply e.g. business lines or products or locations or suppliers © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 6 Group 4 | 7 March 2012 X X X What’s Your Strategy? • We use a tool called the Supply Chain Strategy Matrix to Identify priority strategic features or attributes of supply-chains. • Each supply chain strategy is indicated by a collection of ranked features: Reliability On time? Complete? Undamaged? Responsiveness From Customer Request to final acceptance Flexibility How long to scale up? How expensive to scale down? Cost Cost of Processes? Cost of Goods Sold? Assets Working Capital? Return on Investments? © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 7 | 7 March 2012 Supply Chain Strategy in 5 Minutes Build Strategy Model Lifecycle 1. Assets 2. Cost Buy Make ETO 1. Reliability 2. Response BTO 1. Assets 2. Reliability BTS © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | Likely Priority 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 8 | Start 1. Flexibility 2. Response Middle 1. Cost 2. Reliability Commodity 1. Cost 2. Assets EOL 1. Assets 2. Cost 7 March 2012 Customer What Are Your Metrics? Why? Strategic Attribute Metric (Strategic) Reliability Perfect Order Fulfillment Responsiveness Order Fulfillment Cycle Time Agility Supply Chain Flexibility Supply Chain Adaptability† Internal Cost Supply Chain Management Cost Cost of Goods Sold Assets Cash-to-Cash Cycle Time Return on Supply Chain Fixed Assets Return on Working Capital † upside and downside adaptability metrics © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 9 | 7 March 2012 SCORcards in 5 Minutes Philosophy • You need to have the most data where performance is most critical • You need to have least data where performance is least critical For Every Superior Advantage Parity Select Level 1 Metric Level 1 Metric Level 1 Metric and Level 2 Metric Level 2 Metric and Level 3 Metric © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 10 | 7 March 2012 A Metrics Architecture Supply-Chain SCORcard Reliability S/A/P S Level-1 Metric Level-3 Metric Perfect Order Fulfillment Reliability Summary Perfect Order Fulfilment % Orders Delivered in Full % Orders Delivered in Full Reliability Delivery Item Accuracy Reliability Delivery Quantity Accuracy Delivery Quantity Accuracy Reliability External Level-2 Metric Delivery Performance to Commit Date Delivery Item Accuracy Delivery Performance to Commit Date Reliability Date Achievement Date Achievement Reliability Location Achievement Location Achievement Reliability Accurate Documentation Accurate Documentation Reliability Shipping Documentation Accuracy Shipping Documentation Accuracy Reliability Billing Documentation Accuracy Billing Documentation Accuracy Reliability Perfect Condition % Orders Received Damage-Free Reliability © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | Perfect Condition 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 11 | 7 March 2012 % Orders Received Damage-Free Where Are Your Goals? Attribute SAP Metric (level 1) You Parity Adv Superior Gap Reliability S Perfect Order Fulfillment 95% 92% 95% 98% 3% Response A Order Fulfillment Cycle Time 14 days 8 days 6 days 4 days 8 Days Flexibility P Ups. Supply Chain Flexibility 62 days 80 days 60 days 40 days 0 Cost P Supply Chain Mgmt Cost 12.2% 10.8% 10.4% 10.2% 1.4% Assets A Cash-to-Cash Cycle Time 35 days 45 days 33 days 20 days 2 Days • Used for choosing target performance • Critical to understand Performance in a particular Demographic • Can be “internal” (competing against other supply chains in same company) • Aligns Strategy, Performance, and Performance Goals © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 12 | 7 March 2012 Retail, inc. Where are the Problems? S1.1 Schedule Prod. Deliveries mp3 HQ Customer P.O. Delivery Commit D2.2 Receive, Enter, Validate Order C.O. D2.3 Reserve Inv. Calculate Date C.O. S2.1 Schedule Prod. Deliveries mp3 Factory Inter-Company P.O. D1.2 C.O. = Customer Order, Inv. = Inventory, P.O. = Purchase Order, Prod. = Product © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | Receive, Enter, Validate Order 13 | 7 March 2012 D1.3 Reserve Inv. Calculate Date The SCOR® System • SCOR is a supply chain © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | Supplier processes Supply Chain Plan Source Return Make Deliver Return Customer processes process reference model containing over 200 process elements, 550 metrics, and 500 best practices including risk and environmental management • Organized around the five primary management processes of Plan, Source, Make, Deliver and Return • Developed by the industry for use as an industry open standard - Any interested organization can participate in its continual development Process, arrow indicates material flow direction Process, no material flow Information flow 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 14 | 7 March 2012 14 From Strategy to Operations: The System Business Strategy Supply Chain Strategy Supply Chain Configuration Supply Chain Assets Supply Chain Performance Supply Chain Processes Supply Chain Skills © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 15 | 7 March 2012 SCOR® AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 16 | 7 March 2012 SCOR KPI’s Help Measure Performance… The Knobs & Levers & Shareholder Value Perfect Order Fulfillment Revenue Order Fulfillment Cycle Time Profit Supply Chain Flexibility Supply Chain Adaptability† Expense Supply Chain Management Cost Value Cost of Goods Sold Working Capital Cash-to-Cash Cycle Time Capital Efficiency Return on Supply Chain Fixed Assets Return on Working Capital © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | Fixed Capital 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 17 | 7 March 2012 … And to Diagnose Root Cause Issues Level-3 Diagnostic Level-2 Diagnostic Delivery Item Accuracy % Orders Delivered in Full Delivery Quantity Accuracy Date Achievement Location Achievement Shipping Documentation Accuracy Billing Documentation Accuracy % Orders Received Damage-Free Level-1 KPI Delivery Performance to Commit Date Revenue Perfect Order Fulfillment Profit Expense Accurate Documentation Value Working Capital Perfect Condition Capital Efficiency Fixed Capital Example: How might we analyze improvements in Delivery Accuracy © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 18 | 7 March 2012 The Dupont Model Net Sales $ 100 Gross Profit Example: What would be the impact of a strategy to increase delivery reliability? Return on net worth 74.91 % Financial Leverage 11 Net Profit Net Profit Margin $ 3.00 3% $ 40 $ 60 Total Expense s $ 34 $ 100 Taxes $3 6.8 % Variable Expenses $ 12 Fixed Expenses Sales ROA COGS $ 18 Inventory Expenses $4 Sales Asset Turnover $ 100 Current Assets $ 26 divided by 2.27 $ 44 Fixed Assets Total Assets $ 18 Inventory $ 16 Accounts Receivable $8 Other Currents Assets $2 Assumption: Financial Leverage is a company-wide constant = Total Assets / Shareholder Equity © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 19 | 7 March 2012 The Dupont Model Net Sales Income Statement $ 100 Gross Profit Net Profit Net Profit Margin $ 3.00 3% Return on net worth 74.91 % Financial Leverage 11 $ 40 $ 60 Total Expense s $ 34 $ 100 Taxes $3 6.8 % Variable Expenses $ 12 Fixed Expenses Sales ROA COGS $ 18 Inventory Expenses $4 Sales Asset Turnover $ 100 Current Assets $ 26 divided by 2.27 $ 44 Fixed Assets Total Assets $ 18 Inventory $ 16 Accounts Receivable $8 Other Currents Assets $2 Assumption: Financial Leverage is a company-wide constant = Total Assets / Shareholder Equity © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 20 | 7 March 2012 The Dupont Model Net Sales $ 100 Gross Profit Net Profit Net Profit Margin $ 3.00 3% Return on net worth 74.91 % Financial Leverage 11 $ 40 $ 60 Total Expense s $ 34 $ 100 Taxes $3 6.8 % Variable Expenses $ 12 Fixed Expenses Sales ROA COGS $ 18 Inventory Expenses $4 Sales Asset Turnover $ 100 $ 26 divided by 2.27 $ 44 Fixed Assets Total Assets $ 18 Balance Sheet Assumption: Financial Leverage is a company-wide constant = Total Assets / Shareholder Equity © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | Current Assets 21 | 7 March 2012 Inventory $ 16 Accounts Receivable $8 Other Currents Assets $2 Comparison: SC Change to Sales Change SC Change Net Sales -1% 100 COGS Vairable Expenses Fixed Expenses Inventory Expenses Inventory AR Other Assets 59.4 Gross Profit Total Expenses 11.88 Sales Change 3% Net Sales 103.3 COGS Vairable Expenses Fixed Expenses Inventory Expenses Inventory AR Other Assets 61.98 12.396 18 Net Profit 3.76 33.84 Sales 100 3 Sales Total Assets 100 Taxes Current Assets 25.84 Fixed Assets 18 18 3.96 15.84 8 2 40.6 Gross Profit Total Expenses Taxes Current Assets 4 Fixed Assets 16.528 8.264 2 © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 41.32 34.396 3.099 26.792 3.76% ROA 8.58% 2.28 Leverage 11 Return 94.34% 43.84 In this model, every 1% of Supply Chain Cost Reduction is equivalent to a more than 3% increase in sales. A 10% supply chain reduction is Net equivalent to a more than 40% increase Profit 3.825 NPM 3.70% ROA 8.54% in sales staff. Asset Sales Sales Total Assets 103.3 Turnover 103.3 44.792 18 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | NPM Asset Turnover 22 | 7 March 2012 2.30 Leverage 11 Return 93.93% SCM Asset Returns: Superior Valuation • Comparison of Fortune-1000 Council • • • • member company share price aggregate growth from 2003 – present to S&P 500 and DOW indices. Growth inflected after 2 years, and the spread between SCOR index companies and other industrials has grown to almost 30 points. Growth is increasing exponentially: Compound interest on SC performance. Correlates SCC Membership/SCOR investments with Shareholder value. Same pattern evident in FTSE-100, DAX, NIKKEI and other indices. © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 23 | 7 March 2012 SCOR Best Practices Levers & Financial Performance • 2006/7 the SCOR Financial Research team reviewed SCOR Practices • Estimated correlation between practices and balance sheet outcomes • Resulting SCOR Financial Impact Paper provides excellent guidelines • Practices are “Levers” – influence outcome, but are not “knobs” – they don’t directly create outcome © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 24 | 7 March 2012 Example Study Outcomes Revenue & Capital Effects Reviewed Best Practice & Definition © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | Estimated Impact: Neutral, Increase or Decrease 25 | 7 March 2012 Practice Maturity and Supply Chain Performance PRTM analyzed data from about 100 companies that submitted practice maturity and quantitative performance data Early Stage Mature 50 Companies 50 Companies Stage 4: Cross-Enterprise Collaboration Stage 3: External Integration Stage 2: Stage 1: Functional Focus Discrete supply chain processes and data flows well documented and understood Resources managed at department level and performance measured at functional level Strategic partners throughout the global supply chain collaborate to: Internal Integration • Company-wide process and data model continuously measured at the company, process, and diagnostic levels Resources managed at both functional and cross-functional levels Identify joint business objectives and action plans • Enforce common processes and data sharing • Define, monitor, and react to performance metrics © Copyright 2006 The Performance Measurement Group, LLC, a PRTM Company © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 26 | 7 March 2012 IT and eBusiness solutions enable a collaborative supply chain strategy that: • Aligns participating companies’ business objectives and associated processes • Results in real-time planning, decisionmaking, and execution of supply chain responses to customer requirements Stage of maturity correlates with performance, profitability, and sales growth Analysis Results: Mature companies have a 1–2% advantage in Total Supply Chain Management Costs (as % of total revenue) Mature companies have a 10% advantage in Delivery Performance to Commit Date Mature companies have 10% higher Unit Forecast Accuracy Mature companies have a 30% advantage in Upside Production Flexibility Mature companies have 4.5% lower COGS (as a % of total revenue) Mature companies demonstrated a 4.8% year over year net decrease in COGS Supply Chain Suppliers Manufacturing Facilities Customer Service and Warehousing Local Customers Note: Results based on performance data from discrete companies which included: Consumer Goods, Electronic Equipment, Industrial, Telecom, Computers, and Aerospace & Defense. © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 27 | 7 March 2012 Forecast accuracy matters… Fill Rate • Companies are clearly achieving higher fill rates with better forecast accuracy Fill rate vs Forecast accuracy 100 OFR = 0.9026FA + 4.1173 90 80 Fill rate (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 N = 21 Correl: 0.68 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Forecast accuracy P value: 0.007 Forecast accuracy vs. Fill rate using a cross industry population of 67 companies, showed similar trends and correlation = 0.4 ..while production flexibility and overall inventory do not show the same relationship to fill rate Order Fill rate vs Finished Goods Inventory Days of Supply 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 N = 25 Correl: -0.09 100 80 Fill Rate (%) Fill rate (%) Order Fill rate vs Upside Production Flexibility 60 40 20 0 0 50 P value: 0.67 100 150 200 0 250 N = 62 Correl: -0.09 Upside Production flexibility (Days) © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | Cross industry population N = 104, Correl: -0.08 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 28 | 7 March 2012 20 P value: 0.51 40 60 80 100 120 140 Finished Goods Inventory Days of Supply Cross industry population N = 160, Correl: -0.006 160 180 Forecast accuracy matters… Best In Class Performers The best performing companies have better forecast accuracy performance – they have engineered their supply chain, product architectures and customer relationships in a manner that allows them to achieve superior business performance and utilize a forecasting methodology that both meets their business needs and promotes higher forecast accuracy Forecast accuracy vs "Best Performers" (Delivery to Forecast accuracy Commit, Fill rate, EBIT, Finished Goods Inventory) Forecast accuracy: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 N = 14 Correl: 0.58 Best Performers: FA = 5.4208BP + 51.074 94% Population average: 76% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Best Performers (Fill rate, DPC, FGI, EBIT) P value: 0.028 Correlation analysis against a cross industry population of 55 companies, showed similar trends and correlation = 0.2 NOTE: Best performers is defined as the top 20% companies that have the highest index score across Delivery to Commit, Fill Rate, EBIT and Finished Goods Inventory. This index provides a method for sorting “best performer” companies from “typical” or “low performers” © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 29 | 7 March 2012 Forecast accuracy matters… Delivery Performance Forecast accuracy is directly correlated with delivery performance…. • Forecast accuracy vs Delivery Performance to Request Forecast accuracy vs Delivery Performance to Commit 100 90 Delivery Performance to Commit (%) Delivery Performance to Request (%) 100 DPR = 0.3935FA + 48.241 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 90 DPC = 0.4725FA + 46.526 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 N = 67 Correl: 0.36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 N = 65 Correl: 0.46 Forecast accuracy P value: 0.0027 Cross industry population N = 203, Correl: 0.26 10 20 P value: 0.0001 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Forecast accuracy Cross industry population N = 218, Correl: 0.2 …And to profitability, but… Fore cast accuracy v s EBIT 80 EBIT % Revenue 60 40 EBIT = 0.2375FA - 7.4343 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 -20 -40 -60 N = 61 Correl: 0.27 P value: 0.037 Forecast accuracy © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | Cross industry population N = 187, Correl: 0.12 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 30 | 7 March 2012 100 …while the EBIT correlation is “significant”, the correlation coefficient is not very strong 100 SUPPLY CHAIN COUNCIL, INC. © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 31 | 7 March 2012 SCC: An independent, non-profit global association • Formed in 1996 to create and evolve a standard industry process reference model of the supply chain for the benefit of helping companies rapidly and dramatically improve supply chain operations • SCC has established the supply chain world’s most widely accepted framework – the SCOR® process reference model – for evaluating and comparing supply chain activities and their performance • › It can be used to describe supply chains that are very simple or very complex using a common set of definitions and enabling a common understanding › It lets companies quickly determine and compare the performance of supply chain and related operations within their company or against other companies SCC continually advances its tools and educates members about how companies are capitalizing on those tools › With membership open to all interested organizations © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 32 | 7 March 2012 Industry Membership Scope © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 33 | 7 March 2012 Thanks! jfrancis@supply-chain.org www.supply-chain.org © 2010 Supply Chain Council. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. | 2012 DMSCA – SCC Financial | 34 | 7 March 2012