Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 SOSC1100 Elementary Statistics for Social Research Fall 2012 Lectures: Tue and Thu, 13:00-14:50 / Rm. 2407, Academic Building (Lift 25-26) Course Website: http://lmes2.ust.hk INSTRUCTOR: SHIMOKAWA, Satoru OFFICE: 3363 Academic Building EMAIL: sosatoru@ust.hk OFFICE HOURS: Thursdays, 3:00pm – 5:00pm INSTRUCTIONAL ASSISTANT: Stephen Choy OFFICE: 3001 Academic Building EMAIL: choyho@ust.hk OFFICE HOURS: TBA 1. Course Description: This course aims to help students to learn how to design and conduct a statistical analysis to explore an important social issue by connecting between theory, survey, and data analysis. Students gain hands-on experience of statistical analysis by designing how to analyze real social survey data by themselves. The course consists of two parts, a lecture part and a group project part. The lecture part emphasizes the acquisition of basic statistics including survey methods, descriptive statistics, point and interval estimation, testing hypotheses, analysis of variance, and regression analysis. For a group project part, a group conducts a statistical analysis using actual survey data; present about the analysis in a class; and submit a written report for the group project. There are also assignments, a mid-term exam and a final exam on related subjects. The course website listed above will provide most course materials such as PPT slides, lecture notes, assignments, exercises and links to other learning resources. You may use your ITSC username and password to log in. All copyrights, however, are reserved. If you need further assistance for the course (e.g., questions about assignments), you are very welcome to use our office hours. 2. Course Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs): 1) Develop more confidence and appreciation in using basic statistics to describe and clarify apparently unclear relationships among socioeconomic factors. 2) Learn how to design and conduct a statistical analysis in the social sciences by connecting between theory, survey, and data analysis. 3) Use a statistical software effectively for managing and analyzing socioeconomic data and presenting outcomes in a reader friendly way. Page 1 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 3. Teaching and Learning Activities (TLAs) 1) Lectures in class 2) Assignments 3) Group Research Project Through lectures (TLA 1), students learn about basic statistical reasoning and tools, and how to apply them in an actual statistical analysis (ILO 2). Assignments (TLA 2) provide the opportunity for students to reconfirm the concepts that they learn in a class and to practice how to use SPSS (ILOs 2 & 3). The knowledge and skills acquired through LTAs 1 & 3 will be fundamental to conduct a research project. A group research project (TLA 3) is aligned with all ILOs 1, 2 & 3. 4. Assessment Tasks and Activities (ATAs) ATAs Weighting 1) Class Participation 5% 2) Assignments 15% 3) Mid-term Exam 20% 4) Final Exam 30% 5) Group Presentation 10% 6) Group Project Report 20% 4.1 Class Participation (5%) The prerequisite for class participation is attendance. (There is NO score for attendance in this course.) So, please do come to class and be ON TIME. Your participation score will be determined by the quality and quantity of issues raised by you, your responses in class, and the efforts on in-class quizzes. 4.2 Individual Assignments (15%) There will be three written take home assignments. Individual assignments include short and long answers. The assignment is to be completed on an individual basis. You should not collaborate with other students in any way to complete the assignment. Assignment should be submitted to our TA in class on the due date. Late submission will NOT be accepted. 4.3 & 4.4 Mid-term Exam (20%) and Final Exam (30%) Exams are cumulative and closed book. The exams include multiple choice questions, simple computations, and short answers. You are responsible for all materials presented in lectures, required readings, and extra readings distributed. There will be NO make-up test in this course. This means that if you miss the test, you will simply lose the number of points associated with it. Your grade will therefore be computed as if that particular entry was a zero. The only exceptions to this are validated medical excuses. Such excuses must be in the form of a written note from your doctor, attesting to the fact that on the day of the test you were too ill to attend the test. All medical excuses must be personally presented to the professor as soon as you are able to return to class for a make-up to be scheduled. The make-up test consists of long essay questions. Page 2 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 4.5 & 4.6 Group Presentation (10%) and Group Project Report (20%) Group works will start after the mid-term exam. Students are to form groups of 4–7 people to complete the group project. Please submit the group membership form (one per group) to our TA by the beginning of Week 9. Each group will develop a research question and an analytical strategy based on available survey data. The data will be provided by the instructor. MANDATORY MEETING in Week 12: To facilitate your preparation of the presentation, I will meet with each group to go over its blueprint. Each group is to summarize its discussion using the 2-page working template attached to this syllabus. Submit the completed working template by the end of Week 11. Peer Evaluations: Students will be asked to evaluate fellow group members in terms of their individual contribution to the accomplishment of the group project. I will adjust each person's individual grade for the group project on the basis of the peer evaluations from his or her group. A peer evaluation form is attached to this syllabus for your reference. Group Presentation Each group will be given 10 minutes to make a presentation. Each group must prepare PowerPoint slides for the presentation. Each group will be assigned for a critique on one presentation. The critique group is responsible for starting off the Q&A session right after a presentation. Group Project Report The written report should include the following sections: i. Title Page (Title of the study, a group name, and group member names) ii. Introduction (Overview, Background, Motivation and etc.) iii. Empirical Analysis (Hypotheses, How to test the hypotheses, Variables and etc.) iv. Empirical Results (Present and interpret results) v. Conclusions vi. References (if any) vii. Appendices (if any) All submitted work has to be typed, double-spaced pages, and one-inch margins (use Time New Roman 12pt). Page Limit: up to 10 pages including text, tables, figures, references, and appendices. Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. All material submitted must be your own original work. Any material not completely original must be credited to the proper source. All submitted work has to be proofed for spelling and grammatical errors. Deadline: Each group must e-mail a soft copy to the instructor (sosatoru@ust.hk) by 5pm Dec 8, 2012. Late submission will NOT be accepted. 5. Learning Materials: There is no required textbook. All essential materials will be covered in lecture notes. Recommended readings: Adler, E., S., & Clark, R. 2008. How it’s done: An invitation to social research Hinton, P. 2004. Statistics Explained: A Guide for Social Science Students. Software We will use R (free statistical software) in this course. Excel can be an alternative. To download R, please go to CRAN. Check the following video to see how to install the latest version of R. Please Page 3 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 check only the beginning and ignore the rest e.g., how to install packages. For this course, you do not need to install any additional package. You can learn how to conduct elementary statistics with R at the following link. Elementary Statistics with R http://www.r-tutor.com/elementary-statistics Page 4 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 6. Course Outlines [Tentative]: Date Topic Week 1 Sep 11 Introduction The Role of Social Science Ex. Promoting the use of oral rehydration salts for diarrhea children in India. The Role of Statistics in the Social Sciences Awareness Tests. Scientific Methods and Its Strength Exploratory, Descriptive and Explanatory Research. Theory and Research Deductive and Inductive reasoning. Ex. Volunteer after retirement (role theory) Ex. Unmasking racism and Halloween costuming. Research Design & Study Design Choices Connecting between the Uses of Research, Theory and Study Design. Cross-sectional, longitudinal, and case study designs. Ex. Investing Adulthoods: A Qualitative Longitudinal Study of Youth Transitions. Measurement Conceptualization and Operationalization. Quality of Measurement. Level of Measurement. Ex. Impostor Tendencies and Academic Dishonesty. Sampling Source of error associated with sampling. Types of probability sampling. Types of nonprobability sampling. Ex. USA Today Reports of Tracking Palls Sometimes Ignore Sampling Error. Fundamentals of Statistical Analysis Descriptive Statistics Measure of Central Tendency Statistics Ex. Examination Results in 2009 and 2010. Descriptive Statistics II Measure of Spread Describing and Comparing Data Sets with Descriptive Statistics R Workshop 1 Generate new variables. Compute summary statistics. No Class [the instructor is on leave] Sep 13 Week 2 Sep 18 Sep 20 Week 3 Sep 25 Sep 27 Week 4 Oct 2 Oct 4 Recommended Readings Important Dues AC ch 7 AC ch 5 & 6 H ch 2 No Class [holiday] Secondary Data Search: What data is available at the UST library? How to access the data. Experimental Research in the Social Sciences Causal Hypotheses and Experimental Designs. Experimental Settings Comparing Experiments to Other Designs. Due for Assignment 1 Page 5 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 Week 5 Oct 9 Oct 11 Week 6 Oct 16 Oct 18 Week 7 Oct 23 Oct 25 Week 8 Oct 30 Nov 1 Week 9 Nov 6 Nov 8 Week 10 Nov 13 Nov 15 Week 11 Nov 20 Nov 22 Normal Distribution and Standardization: Characteristics of the Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution. Comparing Scores from Different Distributions. Ex. Scores from TOEFL iBT, TOEFL CBT and TOEIC. Sampling Distributions: Population and Samples. Sampling Distribution of the Mean Central Limit Theorem Normal and t Distribution Ex. How to interpret your IQ scores? Confidence Interval Statistical Significance and Estimation Confidence Interval Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis Testing with One Sample Selecting Samples for Comparison. Hypothesis Testing with Two Samples Ex. Evaluate the Effect of a New Sleeping Pill No Class [holiday] H ch 3 H ch 5 H ch 4 & 6 H ch 7 & 8 Briefing on Data Explain about Questionnaires. Structure of Data Sets Selecting Researchable Questions Sources of Researchable Questions Developing a Researchable Question Association and Causality Due for Assignment 2 R Workshop 2 Hypothesis Testing Review Exercises Mid-term Exam (closed book) Significance, Error and Power Type I and Type II errors. Statistical and Practical Significance. The power of a Test. The choice of Significance Level. Associations between Categorical Variables Contingency Tables Chi-squared Test of Independence Simple Regression Linear regression and Pearson correlation coefficient. Interpretation of correlation and regression. Problems with correlation and regression. The standard error of the estimate. Exercises Simple Regression II (Remaining) Multiple Regression Partial correlation. Multiple correlation. Multiple regression. Multiple Regression II (Remaining) R Workshop 2 Chi-squared test Regression Analysis Review Exercises H ch 9 Submit a Group Membership Form H p172-181. H ch 20 H ch 20 & 21 Submit a Research Question for a Group Project. Submit a Working Template. Page 6 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 Week 12 Nov 27 Nov 29 Week 13 Dec 4 Dec 6 Dec 8 TBA Meetings for a Group Project Report your progress to the instructor (5 min for each group) Work on your group project Prepare for your presentation Q&A Meetings for a Group Project Report your progress to the instructor (5min for each group) Work on your group project Prepare for your presentation Q&A Group Presentations Due for Assignment 3 Group Presentations Deadline for submitting a group project report [by 5pm]. Final exam (closed book) AC = Adler, E., S., & Clark, R. 2008. How it’s done: An invitation to social research H = Hinton, P. 2004. Statistics Explained: A Guide for Social Science Students. Page 7 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 Working Template for SOSC1100 Group Project Group Name: _______________________________________________ What is your project theme? Research Question 1: ___________________________________________________________________________ Relevant items in the questionnaire Statistical analyses (to be) conducted Key findings Managerial implications Queries Note. Each group has to complete one working template and submit it to the instructor by the end of Week 11. Page 8 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 Research Question 2: ___________________________________________________________________________ Relevant items in the questionnaire Statistical analyses (to be) conducted Key findings Managerial implications Queries Research Question 3: ___________________________________________________________________________ Relevant items in the questionnaire Statistical analyses (to be) conducted Key findings Managerial implications Queries Page 9 of 10 Satoru SHIMOKAWA, SOSC1100, Fall 2012 Peer Evaluation Sheet for SOSC1100 Most groups work effectively. Members benefit from the synergy developed as multiple viewpoints and multiple skills are brought together to address a common problem. However, you may wish to have a chance to evaluate each other – particularly if the workload has been shared unevenly. Please complete the following peer evaluation form and email it to our TA no later than December 15, 2012 (5pm). To encourage your taking part in this exercise, 1 point will be credited to your class participation upon the receipt of your peer evaluation sheet. I will adjust each person's individual grade for group project on the basis of the submitted peer evaluations from his or her group. Instructions: Distribute 100 points among the members of your group (including yourself) to indicate their relative contribution in completing the group project. Group Member Points 1 Your Name: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total 100 Your Name: Group Name: Your Student ID: Date: Page 10 of 10