The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) Master of Science Program in Financial Engineering 2015/2016 Fall Term 1. Course Identity Course code Course title (English) Course title (Chinese) Units Description (English) Description (Chinese) MFE5110 Stochastic models 随机模型 3 This course introduces basic techniques for modelling and analysing systems in the presence of uncertainty. It will cover Poisson processes, Discrete and Continuous Markov chains, Martingales, Brownian motions, Stochastic Calculus and applications in financial engineering. 本课程介绍在不确定因素影响下系统建模和分析的基本技术。内容 包括 Poisson 过程,离散和连续时间 Markov 链,鞅过 程 论 , Brownian 运动,随机积分及其在金融工程中的应用。 2. Lecturer Name: Nan Chen (陈南) Email: nchen@se.cuhk.edu.hk Phone: +852-39438237 Office: TBA Office hours: 12pm to 1pm, every Wed or by appointments 3. Prerequisites / Co-requisites University level linear algebra, calculus, probability theory, or MAT1040 and its equivalence. 4. Learning Outcomes Upon completing this course, the student will be able to: Understand fundamental concepts in stochastic models; Obtain knowledge about Markov chains, Poisson processes, martingales, Brownian motion, and stochastic calculus; Acquire some basic techniques to use the tools of stochastic processes to establish proper models for financial problems and to perform quantitative analysis. 5. Course Syllabus Discrete Markov chains Poisson processes and their applications Continuous-time Markov chains Martingale theory Brownian motion Introduction to stochastic calculus and its financial applications 6. Assessment Scheme Component/ method Assignments Midterm Examination Final Examination % weight 40% 30% 30% 7. Feedback for evaluation In-class Course and Teaching Evaluation Off-class feedbacks to instructor and/or teaching assistant Program review 8. Reading A. Required 1. Sheldon M. Ross, Introduction to Probability Models, 11th Edition, Academic Press, Oxford, 2014. (Ch. 4, 5, 6, 10.1-10.5) 2. Steven E. Shreve, Stochastic Calculus for Finance II: Continuous-Time Models, Springer, New York, 2004. (Ch. 1-4, 6) 3. Lecturer’s notes (Available at: www.se.cuhk.edu.hk/nchen/mfe5110/) B. Recommended 1. Rick Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, 4th Edition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2010. 2. Olav Kallenberg, Foundations of Modern Probability, Springer, New York, 1997. 3. Samuel Karlin and Howard M. Taylor, A First Course in Stochastic Processes, 2nd Edition, Academic Press, San Diego, 1975. 4. Bernt Oksendal, Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications, Springer, New York, 2003. 5. Sidney I. Resnick, Adventures in Stochastic Processes, Springer, 1992. 6. Sheldon M. Ross, Stochastic Processes, 2nd Edition, Wiley, New York, 1996. 7. 钱敏平,龚光鲁,陈大岳,章复熹,应用随机过程,高等教育出版社,2011. 8. 龚光鲁,随机微分方程引论,第二版,北京大学出版社,1995. 9. Course components Activity Lectures Tutorials Hours/week 3 hours per week 1 hour per week 10. Indicative teaching plan Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Content/ topic/ activity Markov chains I: transition matrix, Chapman-Kolmogrov equations Markov chains II: limiting probabilities and some applications Poisson processes I: exponential distributions, Poisson process and its properties Poisson processes II: compound Poisson process, stochastic intensity, Hawkes processes, stochastic thinning Continuous-time Markov chains I: birth-death processes, Kolmogrov backward/forward equations Continuous-time Markov chains II: limiting probabilities, uniformization Midterm Examination Martingale: definition and examples, stopping times, optional sampling theorem and its application Brownian motions I: scaled random walk and its limiting process, properties of BM, quadratic variations Brownian motions II: first passage time, reflection principle and the maxima of BM Stochastic calculus I: Ito integral and its properties, Ito-Doeblin formula Stochastic calculus II: multivariate stochastic calculus, recognition of BM, stochastic differential equations Stochastic calculus III: Feynman-Kac theorems, Black-Scholes option pricing theory Final Examination