January 11, 2010 26:960:580 Stochastic Processes Ph.D. Program, Rutgers Business School Time: Tuesdays, 9:00-11:50 am. Methods in Supply Chain Management, which is also offered this semester (M 5:30-8:20, Michael Katehakis). Spring 2010 My own research bases probability theory on games instead of measures: www.probabilityandfinance.com. Place: Room 532, 1 Washington Park, Newark Instructor: Glenn Shafer, Room 936 973-353-1604, fax 1283, gshafer@rbsmail.rutgers.edu. Tentative Schedule 1. January 19. Lecture 1. Ch. 1. Introduction. 2. January 26. Lecture 2. Ch. 2, §§1-3. Probability in discrete time. 3. February 2. Lecture 3. Ch. 2, §§1-3. Martingales & central limit theorem. 4. February 9. Lecture 4. Ch. 3, §§1-2. Defining Brownian motion. 5. February 16. Lecture 5. Ch. 3, §§3-4. Tricks & theorems. 6. February 23. Lecture 6: Ch. 4, §§1-2. Stochastic integration. 7. March 2. Lecture 7: Ch. 4, §3. Ito’s formula. 8. March 9. Lecture 8: Ch. 4, §4. Integration by parts. 9. March 16. No class. Spring break. Office hours: Tuesdays, 3:30-4:30 and thereafter as necessary. People who sometimes know where I am: Jackie Adams 973-353-1644, Accounting, Room 912 Monnique DeSilva 973-353-5371, Ph.D. Program, 403C Course Resources: A course in financial calculus, by Alison Etheridge. Cambridge, 2002. The Rutgers-Newark Bookstore and New Jersey Books both have copies of the book. Slides posted on Blackboard each Monday evening before Tuesday class. Other Books: Less mathematical: Martin Baxter and Andrew Rennie, Financial Calculus. More mathematical: Steven E. Shreve: Stochastic Calculus for Finance II. Coursework and grading: Homework, always due at the beginning of the next class: 30% One-hour exam March 23: 30% Final exam: 40 % Any needed make-up exam will be oral. Some aspects of the philosophy of the course: The course will be about Brownian motion and Ito processes. Within business schools, these models are applied mainly to finance, but they have many other applications in science and mathematics. Discrete-time stochastic processes such as Markov chains and counting processes such as the Poisson process, are covered in 26:799:661, Stochastic 10. March 23. Lecture 9: Ch. 4, §5. Girsanov’s theorem 11. March 30. Midterm examination. 12. April 6. Lecture 10: Ch. 5, §8. Feynman-Kac 13. April 13. Lecture 11: Ch 5, §1-2. Black-Scholes 14. April 20. Lecture 12: Ch 5, §3-6. Foreign exchange, etc. 15. April 27. Lecture 13: Ch. 6. Other payoffs 16. May 11. Final examination.