Hydrobiologia – Supplementary Information (Gell et al.) Methods Sample collection Sampling of Lake Colac was undertaken in November 2008 and The Curdies Inlet was sampled in March 2009. At both lakes sediments were collected using a piston corer a Russian ‘D’ section coring device; an 80 cm long core was retrieved from Colac and almost 6 metres of sediment was taken from the Curdies estuary. Chronological analyses Lead-210, Caesium-137 and Radon-226 Sediment samples from the upper 20 cm of Lake Colac were analysed for 210Pb, 226Ra and 137 Cs by direct gamma assay at Liverpool University’s Environmental Radioactivity Laboratory, UK. Radiometric dates for the core were calculated using the constant rate of supply dating model (Appleby, 2001). The atmospheric fallout of 210Pb is known to be much lower in Australia and as a result, the dating was restricted to the upper 8 cm of the core. Radiocarbon (Carbon-14) The deeper core sections of Lake Colac were dated using AMS 14C dating of bulk sediment samples; dates were obtained in order to establish a full chronology for the sediment sequence. All of the samples for radiocarbon dating, were prepared using an Acid-Alkali-Acid (AAA) Treatment. The results were reported as conventional radiocarbon years before present (BP, relative to AD 1950). Calibrated ages were derived from 14C dates using the OxCal program (v4.1.7; Bronk Ramsey, 2009) using the southern hemisphere calibration curve. The radiocarbon dating was undertaken at the University of Waikato’s Radiocarbon Laboratory, New Zealand. Diatom analysis The standard technique of diatom analysis follows the method as set out by Battarbee (1986). Approximately 0.5 g of wet weight material per sample was used for the analysis, to which 30% hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) was added to oxidise the organic material present and heated on a hotplate to 90 °C for 4 hours, topping up the H2O2 when necessary to prevent the samples from boiling dry. In the case of extremely organic-rich sediment, the samples were left in cold H2O2 for 24 hours to prevent the samples from boiling over when heated. Following the oxidisation process, 10% hydrochloric acid (HCl) was added to the samples to dissolve any carbonates present and to neutralize the sample. Samples were washed four times after the chemical treatments to remove any salts that had formed during the preparation process. The samples were allowed to settle for 24 hours between each wash. After washing the samples were diluted and placed on coverslips and allowed to dry. These strewn slides were mounted in Naphrax and at least 300 valves per sample were counted in parallel transects under oil-immersion phase-contrast light microscopy (LM) at x1000 magnification on a Zeiss research microscope. A variety of general (Krammer and Lange-Bertalot, 1986-1991) and region-specific floras (e.g. Sonneman et al., 2000) were consulted, and valves identified to species level where possible. The dissolution of the diatom valves was assessed using a four-scale system (pristine and dissolved; Ryves et al., 2001). This ratio varies from 0 (all valves partly dissolved) to 1 (perfect preservation). All data was recorded manually on count sheets and then transferred into an electronic database to allow further analyses. Pollen analysis 1 cm3 sub-samples were taken from 2 mm slices at regular intervals where possible from each core for pollen and charcoal analysis. Preparation involved sediment dispersal in 10% sodium pyrophosphate, treatment with potassium hydroxide to remove organic matter, sieving through mesh sizes of 180 μm and 7μm to remove unwanted large and small fragments respectively, treatment with hydrochloric acid to remove carbonates, acetolysis (a mixture of acetic anhydride and sulphuric acid) to reduce cellulose matter and darken grains to make them easier to identify, treatment with hydrofluoric acid to dissolve silicate material and heavy liquid (specific gravity 2.0) separation of any remaining mineral matter from the pollen residue using sodium polytungstate. A known amount of exotic Lycopodium spores was added to each sample at the beginning of the preparation process, to allow for pollen and charcoal concentrations to be calculated. Prepared samples were mounted on microscope slides for identification and counting of pollen grains and charcoal. Pollen and charcoal counts were undertaken using either an Olympus model BHB or a Zeiss Axiorod compound light microscope at x 600 magnification. Sample counts were continued until a total of 100 grains of major regional south-east Australian dryland taxa had been recorded. All pollen taxon percentages were calculated in relation to this major pollen taxon sum to prevent taxa such as Chenopodiaceae that can be derived from locally growing as well as regional plants, and local aquatics, distorting regional vegetation reconstructions. Microcharcoal particles, greater than 5 μm maximum diameter, were counted with Lycopodium spores along selected transects and expressed as particles per cm3 or as charcoal/pollen sum ratios. Statistical analysis TILIA [Pollen data] The results of pollen analysis on each lake are presented as two pollen diagrams prepared using TILIA (Grimm, 2004); one for predominantly aquatic taxa and one for mainly dryland pollen taxa and charcoal. A moisture index, based on percentages of predominantly freshwater taxa (Myriophyllum, Pediastrum and Botryococcus) and saline tolerant taxa (Chenopodiaceae, Myriophyllum muelleri and Ruppia), is included on the aquatic pollen diagram. Each diagram was zoned independently, on either all aquatic taxa or pollen sum taxa, using a stratigraphically constrained hierarchical classification technique, CONISS, contained within TILIA (Grimm, 2004). C2 [Diatom data] For all stratigraphic diatoms, all diatom specis >10% in any sample are shown as percentage abundance and ordered according their down-core weighted averaging abundance (species ordered in terms of their occurrence in the core). The cores are plotted against depth and dates (where available) are presented alongside the y-axis. The diatom zones presented are based on the output of ZONE. Zone [Diatom data] The stratigraphical diatom data from each core were divided into assemblage zones using optimal sum of squares partitioning (Birks and Gordon, 1985) by the program ZONE (version 1.2; Juggins, 2002). Ordination: Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) [Diatom data] Indirect ordination analyses were carried out using CANOCO 4.5 (ter Braak and Šmilauer, 2002) to identify the dominant trends within the data. Initially a Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA; Hill and Gauch, 1980) with detrending by segments, and down-weighting of rare species, was used to explore the main patterns of taxonomic variation among sites and to estimate the compositional gradient lengths of the first few DCA axes. The diatom percentage data were transformed using log transformation in an attempt to reduce clustering of abundant or common taxa at the centre of origin (Leps and Šmilauer, 2003). The gradient lengths allow the determination of the most appropriate response model for further analysis. If the gradients were sufficiently long (>1.5 s.d.), it indicated that numerical methods based on a unimodal response model were most appropriate (e.g. [Detrended] Correspondence Analysis; CA or DCA). Results: Curdies Inlet The diatom stratigraphy from the Curdies Inlet, Peterborough spans the last c. 6000 years. Eightythree species were identified across 75 samples (selected taxa >10% are shown in Figure 1), and three statistically significant zones were identified. Dating of this core is being undertaken and the dates, where presented, are from a parallel dated sequence that has been correlated on the basis of the major changes in the diatom stratigraphy. CUR-1 (550-50 cm) is dominated by three main species, Pinnularia yarrensis (river derived?) and the marine/brackish flora Grammatophora oceanica and Paralia sulcata. These species are consistently present in the lower record in abundaces greater than 20%. Pinnularia yarrensis is present in generally lower abundance (from 3-45%) compared to Grammatophora oceanica (8-52%) and Paralia sulcata (3-54%). Whilst there are small fluctuations in the presence of these taxa in the lower stratigraphy (notably around 500 cm for all 3 taxa; and 150 cm and 70 cm for P. sulcata which is temporarily replaced by the saline/nutrient tolerant Cyclotella meneghiniana), there is little in the way of variation. Whilst many of the inland ‘rain-gauge’ lakes were demonstrating sensitivity to shifts in moisture balance over the last 6000 years, the Curdies Inlet appears to be relatively stable over the long-term, showing influences of both the freshwater river and tidal/marine realms. The first statistically significant shift in the diatom assemblage data is noted at c. 50 cm (CUR-2; 50-7 cm), where there is a decrease in the presence of Pinnularia yarrensis, which may be an indicator of declining brackish influence on the Curdies estuary. Grammatophora oceanica still has a strong presence in this zone (with abundances between 20 and 40%) and Paralia sulcata increases in abundance, to percentages higher than those recorded in the lower stratigraphy (10-80%). In addition to this, the diversity of diatom taxa increases dramatically in this zone, with the appearance of 7 other taxa with abundances >10% in any one sample. CUR-2 has taxa indicative of fresh, oligotrophic conditions (Discostella stelligera) interspersed with periods of higher salinity (Amphora coffeaeformis) and higher salinity/nutrients (Cyclotella meneghiniana); there is also an increase in species indicative of well formed littoral areas and the establishment of submerged aquatic vegetation coincident with the less saline conditions (Sellaphora pupula, Planothdium delicatulum and Cocconeis krammeri). Towards the top of the zone the assemblage sees the appearance of taxa indicative of more brackish water (Cocconeis scutellum and Cocconeis placentula). This precedes a major switch in the diatom assemblage data at 7 cm (CUR-3; 7-0 cm). The uppermost zone sees the disappearance of the Pinnularia yarrensis following its decline through CUR-2 and the decline and disappearance of the former dominant taxa Grammatophora oceanica and Paralia sulcata, perhaps as a result of the estuary becoming increasingly isolated from the marine environment (the development of sand bars across the estuary mouth are frequently observed at the Curdies Inlet). Whilst a number of species from CUR-2 are still present in CUR-3, they tend to occur in lower abundances (D. stelligera, A. coffeaeformis, P. delicatulum and C. krammeri) although S. pupula does increase in abundance. The dominant species in the upper sediments are Cocconeis placentula, C. scutellum and C. stauroneiformis and suggest a well-established submerged macrophyte community in the estuary, likely as a result of relatively shallow water. Cocconeis placentula and C. scutellum are present in abundnces >40%; Cocconeis stauroneiformis peaks in abundance at 7 cm (40%) and then declines towards the surface (10%). These species are tolerant of brackish conditions and can withstand fluctuating water chemistry having broad tolerances to a range of chemical parameters. Results: Lake Colac Lead-210 Chronology Lead-210 dates were calculated using the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model, placing 1964, the year of peak nuclear weapons fallout in the southern hemisphere, at a depth of about 6 cm. The 210Pb data below 6 cm was not reliable. The deepest sample, had significant unsupported 210Pb concentrations (9-9.4 cm) and is dated to the early part of 20th century. These results are reasonably consistent with the 14C dates. In the absence of a good 137Cs record the 210Pb chronology is treated with some caution. Radiocarbon Dating Seven dates were obtained from the Lake Colac sediment core, and were all taken below the appearance of Pinus in the pollen record to ensure that the samples submitted would be old enough for the use of this dating technique. Five of the seven dates obtained from Lake Colac fall in stratigraphic order (Gell et al., 2012), suggesting that whilst there is likely to be limited disturbance in the core sequence (Supplementary Table 2). Terrestrial and aquatic pollen There are extreme variations in taxon representation below about 35 cm in Lake Colac (Supplementary Figures 2 and 3), a number of which may be the result of differential preservation rather than vegetation change. Consequently, the diagram is not presently zoned and is little considered below this depth. Perhaps the most significant change in the diagram occurs around 25 cm, the zone LCP-3/4a boundary, with a switch from a macrophyte-dominated to an algal-dominated aquatic system. The dominant macrophyte is the submerged plant Myriophyllum, identified to the species M. salsugineum from recorded seeds, although values are exceeded by those of Rumex between 35 and 40 cm depth. Myriophyllum is replaced largely by the alga Botryococcus. The change may represent an increase in water depth although, considering that the maximum attainable depth of the lake is only about 2.5 m, it may be more related to a loss of visibility due perhaps to increased turbidity. This event is dated to about 500 years ago, long before the arrival of Europeans, whose activities may have been considered a cause of the change in state of Lake Colac. However, it is a common phenomenon for radiocarbon ages to appear several hundred years too old in recent sedimentary records, possibly due to reworking and redeposition of carbon with intensification of human impact on the landscape, and this event may mark the earliest possible time of European arrival. There is, though, little indication of influence on dryland vegetation and unless evidence emerges for special, early attention to the lake, then a more natural cause, such as an increase in effective rainfall, seems most likely. The initial impact of Europeans, or perhaps more specifically their agriculture, is at the subzone LCP4b boundary, marked by a sustained increase in spores of the moist ground liverwort Anthoceros and dryland understorey Pteridium (bracken). The former may also indicate a fall in lake level, as also possibly suggested by the reduction in Botryococcus values. This period also witnesses the beginning of a sustained decline in pollen of Casuarinaceae, a common feature of early European impact due to the selection of its timber for fuel and construction. There is no doubt that agriculture was well established by the subzone LCP-4c/5 boundary as exotics, in the form of shelter trees Pinus and Cypress Pine (Cupressaceae), and the pastoral weed Plantago, had arrived and begun flowering. Earlier occurrences of pine pollen are no doubt contaminant resulting from the method of sediment sampling and perhaps also pollen in the atmosphere, as pine pollen is a notorious contaminant. The zone 4c/5 boundary indicates the establishment of a landscape similar to that of today with extensive pine plantations and a more open tree cover demonstrated by high percentages of Poaceae as well as reduced eucalypt and Casuarina percentages. Through the period though there are general reductions in disturbance taxa such as Plantago, Pteridium and Anthoceros that may reflect increasing conservation values. However, Asteraceae Liguliflorae percentages have increased and stay high in this period. Perhaps they indicate weeds of a more arable agricultural system this century. It is interesting that M. salsugineum has not re emerged considering that conditions have been frequently dry during the last 80 years, yet Myriophyllum muelleri, an indicator of more saline aquatic environments, is conspicuous through zone 1. Its only previous representation of note is a peak within zone 3 and could indicate a dry period prior to European presence. However, the very different assemblages associated with the early and later phases of M. muelleri demonstrate the importance of factors other than water availability on aquatic succession. Macrofossils Samples for macrofossil analysis were much smaller than desired, due to high-resolution sampling of the sediment cores; however they were sufficient to provide an idea of the types of macro remains that were present. They were also sufficient to provide some taxonomic resolution to the pollen data. The macrofossil record contained six identified vascular plant taxa, one freshwater sponge species, and between 3 and 5 charophyte species, were present. The record also contained a number of invertebrate macrofossils including 5 or 6 cladoceran species, 1 bryozoan, at least 4 trichopteran (caddis-flies) taxa and a range of other beetles, true bugs, ostracod and mites. A summary diagram is presented with selected macrofossil taxa (Supplementary Figure 4). The presence of macrofossils in the lower part of the record adds some taxonomic refinement to the pollen data; species were assigned to the aquatic pollen genera Myriophyllum salsugineum (Myriophyllum), Lepilaena cf. bilocularis (Lepilaena) and Azolla filiculoides (Azolla), and to the families cf. Chenopodium glaucum (Chenopodiaceae) and cf. Bolboschoenus medianus (Cyperaceae). The macrofossils also add ecological depth to the interpretation of the record, reflecting both the submerged lake vegetation (Myriophyllum salsugineum, Lepilaena cf. bilocularis and Azolla filiculoides) and those species growing at the lake edge (Juncus cf. pallidus, cf. Bolboschoenus medianus and cf. Chenopodium glaucum). Freshwater to brackish conditions are suggested by the plant species and their modern habitat preferences. The presence of Daphnia sp. throughout the lower section of the record supports moderately fresh to brackish water and indicates that salinity levels were no greater than 5.8‰ during this period. In agreement, the charophytes present in the lower sediments Chara globularis/vulgaris type and Nitella sp. suggest freshwater fluctuating to brackish water with salinity no greater than 5‰. The disappearance of these taxa, along with all Trichopteran types and Cladoceran type 4, around 25 cm could support the proposed drought and increase in salinity shown by the diatom record at this point (or may simply be an artefact of the small sample size). The second main change occurs at 47.6-47.8 cm where there is a loss of three cladoceran types coincident with the appearance of Myriophyllum salsugineum, cf. Chenopodium glaucum, Azolla filiculoides and Lepilaena cf. bilocularis. This coincides with the inferred AD 1000 drought in the diatom record. Diatoms The diatom stratigraphy shows much change in the condition of Lake Colac over the last 5550 years (Supplementary Figure 5). Seven zones have been statistically identified in the core. The broadly tolerant Cyclotella meneghiniana is usually common. The base of the core (zone LCD-1) supports an unusual population of aerophilous taxa suggesting a shallow, muddy substrate of inwashed littoral sediments. This scenario is supported by the testate amoebae: diatom ratio. Testate amoeba are small soil dwelling creatures and are often washed into lake sediments from the littoral areas. In this research testate amoeba scale are used to infer in-wash from the littoral areas, while they may also be used to infer the extent of littoral areas around the lake (which may occur during periods of lower lake levels). The halophilous taxon Amphora veneta is also present revealing a naturally brackish condition for Lake Colac. Throughout LCD-2 (44 cm) the diatom flora is represented by taxa with varying salinity tolerance, but including some preferring fresh or oligosaline conditions e.g. Gomphonema affine, Nitzschia lacuum. The appearance of Amphora coffeaeformis and Navicula tenelloides in LCD-3 marks an increase in salinity. From here progressive changes occur with small peaks in the eutraphentic Nitzschia palea, and increase in the nutrient-salinity planktonic form Actinocyclus normanii (LCD-4). This latter change reveals an increase in depth, and salinity, possibly suggesting increased catchment contribution of salt, independent of drought. The section from 30-25 cm hosts the greatest representation of saline taxa, and particular those capable of withstanding hypersaline conditions (Amphora coffeaeformis, Gyrosigma spp. (particularly G. attenuatum) and Navicula tenelloides, as well as Amphora veneta, and a peak in the Chaetoceros: diatom ratio). The period represented in LCD-4 (c. 27 cm) marks the best evidence for a major drying event, which is currently dated to AD 1500, prior to the arrival of Europeans and concomitant with the onset of the northern hemisphere’s climate phenomenon the “Little Ice Age”. Other, lesser saline events appear in zone LCD-5 (21 and 11 cm). An increase in sediment flux and lake water turbidity may be reflected by the increase in Fragilaria spp. which peak after this AD 1500 salinity event. The Chaetoceros: diatom ratio, and abundance of Actinocyclus normanii, increases through LCD-6 suggesting increasing lake salinity. The abundance and diversity of salinity indicators increases in LCD-7 (from 3 cm) and reaches a peak for the entire record in the middle of this zone. It includes the presence of the halobiontic Staurophora wislouchii. The plankter Cyclotella meneghiniana and tychoplanktonic Fragilaria spp. are largely lost. The ordination analyses (DCA) particularly DCA axis 2 suggest unprecedented conditions in the Lake Colac system in the last 30 years than has been observed for the entire 6000 year record. This change in the statistical analyses is supported by a 3-fold increase in the diatom-inferred conductivity (a proxy for salinity). Acknowledgements Pollen analysis and the interpretation of the pollen data were undertaken by Prof. Peter Kershaw and Dr Merna McKenzie (Monash University). 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