The Impact of Kilauea Volcano on Nearby Populations
By
Daryn Basile
An Undergraduate Thesis
Submitted in Partial Fulfillment for the Requirements of
Bachelor of Arts
In
Geography and Earth Science
Research Mentor: Dr. Kurt Piepenburg
Carthage College
Kenosha, WI
March, 2012
Table of Contents
Abstract……………………………………………………………………………...……2
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………3
Methodology…………………………………………………………………………….11
Results…………………………………………………………………………………...15
Discussion……………………………………………………………………………….21
Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………23
References……………………………………………………………………………….24
1
Abstract
The Kilauea volcano in Hawaii that is located in the Volcano National Park, has
been in a constant state of eruption for the past 28 years This research investigates the
impact this volcano has on various nearby districts and towns within its vicinity.
Observing the correlations between the distance to the volcano, and how that affects the
town’s population count, as well as property value. Also, the elevation of the town’s in
regards to the volcano if that also has an effect, as well as the volcanic slope and lava
flow hazards.
2
Introduction
Volcanoes have always caused certain risks and consequences, for things such as
property value and population distribution in the surrounding area. The state of Hawaii is
known for its volcanoes, with the islands themselves having been created by shield
volcanoes. The Kilauea volcano in particular is known as one of the world’s most active
volcanoes, which is located on the southern portion of Hawaii’s big island. The question
is, does proximity to this active volcano increase or decrease the population density as
well as the property value? How do risk factors such as lava flow and volcanic air
pollution contribute to this? This study will be taking a look at the three districts of Hilo,
Puna, and Kau that surround the volcano, and see if their towns are effected by the
proximity to Kilauea.
Kilauea Facts
The Kilauea volcano in comparison to the other volcanoes located on the big
island of Hawaii, is the youngest with the oldest rocks dating back to approximately
23,000 years ago, of the volcano’s first eruption could be dated back to 300,000 to
600,000 years ago. Those first eruptions were probably below the surface of the Pacific
Ocean. The earliest estimated eruption of Kilauea above the water’s surface was 50,000
to 100,000 years ago (U.S. Geological Survey).
Being a shield volcano, which is a broad low lying volcano, is different than the
generic image of volcanoes that people typically picture, which is the steep slopes of a
stratavolcano that has the conical shape. Mount Fuji in Japan is an example of a
stratavolcano. Shield volcanoes are formed by their effusive eruptions. Effusive eruptions
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are not the violent explosive types of eruptions, but rather the pouring out of lava in all
directions. (The Geological Society, Effusive and Explosive Eruptions). The lava that
erupts from shield volcanoes is very fluid, having a low viscosity. Viscosity means how
thick in consistency a fluid is, so having a low viscosity means that it flows very easily.
Lava Flows
Some hazards that come along with a volcano and having a population in the near
vicinity are factors such as lava flows, being one of the primary hazards. Lava flows are
basically molten rock seeping out from open vents of an eruption. They may be slow
moving, but they are incredibly destructive. There are a few factors that determine the
speed at which the flow moves; the type and viscosity of the lava, the elevation and
steepness of the ground in which it moves, the form and shape the lava takes as it moves
such as a broad sheet, a confined channel, or through a lava tube, and lastly, the rate in
which the lava is escaping the vent (U.S. Geological Survey).
There are typically few deaths from direct lava flows because they are so slow
moving, but injury and death have been caused by lava flow related happenings, like
when the lava explodes when entering water, inhalation of toxic fumes, or the collapsing
of lava deltas (U.S. Geological Survey). Lava flows aren’t the only hazard that there is to
take into consideration. Volcanic air pollution could also create some problems.
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Volcanic Air Pollution
Volcanic air pollution can be hazardous to populations when within close
proximity to an active volcano, or just close enough to where the noxious gases can
reach. With the increase of Kilauea’s eruption in March of 2008 because of an opening of
an eruption vent at the summit of the volcano, it consequently increased the amount of
smog, or vog as the Hawaiian residents call it, which is sulfurous volcanic gas (Longo,
2010). Vog is mainly composed of water vapor, sulfur dioxide gas, particles, and sodium
sulfate. Other gases Kilauea emits are carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrogen
sulfide, as well as hydrogen sulfide (Longo, 2010). Kilauea is said to be the Unites States
biggest source of sulfur dioxide, especially with the continuous eruption during the past
28 years with an increase of an estimated 3,000 to 5,000 tons per day since March 2008
(Harris, 2010).
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Sulfur Dioxide and Vog from Kilauea on April 26, 2008
Figure 1: Image showing the amount of vog emitted from Kilauea.
Obtained from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8706
With the prevailing northeastern Pacific trade winds, the vog that Kilauea emits is
moved downwards to the nearby populations, resulting in a seemingly constant exposure
to the noxious gases (Longo, 2010). This also affects the indoor air quality of these
civilizations, homes, schools, hospitals, and other buildings alike.
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Historical Destruction
Kilauea has been erupting nonstop since January 3, 1983 from the cinder cone
along the eastern rift zone called Pu`u `O`o, making it the longest eruption during the past
two centuries (Rubin, 2011).
Nearby towns Kaimu and Kalapana that lie on the south eastern shore of the big
island, were once famous for their black sand beaches. In 1983, at the start of Kilauea’s
most recent and current eruption from the Kupa ianaha vent, the towns, along with nearby
roads were completely destroyed and covered by about 15 to 25 meters of lava by 1990
(U.S. Geological Survey, 2008).
Map of the Ongoing Pu’u ‘O’o Eruption from 1983 to 1997
Figure 2: Image obtained from http://www.soest.hawaii.edu by Brooks Bays and Nancy Hulbirt
of SOEST Publication Services
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The figure above illustrates the Pu’u ‘O’o eruption from 1983 to 1997. The
eruption is taking place along the east rift zone of the Kilauea volcano, which is occurring
mainly from two central vents of Pu’u ‘O’o and Kupaianaha. It depicts the lava flows
from each vent through episodes 1 to 49. An episode is a notable new eruption either
from a new vent, or from a period of slowdown or paused eruption (Rubin, 2011).
Table 1: The table below shows eruption and lava flow data for episodes 1 to 52.
Episode Number
Episode Start Episode Length Flow Area (km2) Vent Location
1 to 47
1/3/1983
3.5 years
26
Pu'u 'O'o
48
7/20/1986
5.5 years
41
Kupaianaha
49
11/8/1987
18 days
4
Fissure 3
50
2/17/1992
15 days
0.5
Pu'u 'O'o Flank
51
3/7/1992
161 days
11
Pu'u 'O'o Flank
52
10/3/1992
15 days
0.5
Pu'u 'O'o Flank
Data obtained from http://www.soest.hawaii.edu
In the table, Fissure 3 refers to a 2km long narrow opening that lies between both
Pu’u ‘O’o and Kupaianaha, and the Pu’u ‘O’o flanks are vents located around the
Pu’u ‘O’o crater. Episodes 50 to 52 flowed from the south as well as the west flanks.
There was a study done on the Nyiragongo volcano in Virunga National Park in
the Democratic Republic of the Congo, that observed the hazard of the volcano, and
presented ways how to reduce the hazard threat around the urbanized areas of said
volcano. With Nyiragongo being one of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes, it has had
several vents open up and pour lava out that destroyed a large portion of the town of
Goma in 2002 (Chirico, 2009). In order to get a good idea on how to reduce the volcanic
risks with the urban areas surrounding the volcano, evaluation of current, as well as
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possible lava flow paths along the flanks of the volcano were made that can be seen in he
image below.
Lava Flow Hazard Map for Nyiragongo
Figure 3: White contours and dotted areas show the eruptions from 1977 and
2002. Dotted line is the state boundry in between Rwanda (right), and DRC
(left). The dashed lines show the town boundaries of Goma in DRC, and
Gisenyi in Rwanda. Image obtained from Favalli M, 2008).
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After looking back at previous attempts to reduce the lava flow hazards, new
ideas were created in order to hopefully make a promising impact on the safety of the two
towns of Goma and Gisenyi where their geographical location was most dangerous in
location of the volcano. With the volcano’s past and present flow data present, along with
measurements of elevation in mind, multiple maps of potential lava flow paths were
generated, as well as maps including the artificial barriers to help divert the flows away
from the towns. The investigation’s conclusion stated that artificial barriers along the
flanks of the volcano would help tremendously, but the east portion of Goma has the
highest risk, and should still be relocated as a precaution (Chirico, 2009).
Conclusion
In conclusion, having populations within the vicinity of active volcanoes certainly
comes with its risks. The past studies that addressed the issue of lava flows nearby
urbanized areas illustrated the threat and destruction, as well as health concerns that are
faced. This relates to what this thesis will be investigating with the Kilauea volcano, how
the present hazards affect the neighboring districts and towns, and if the elevation
increases these risks.
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Methodology
In order to address the question of volcanic hazards in relation to populations, a
few different data sets were used, including elevation, population, property value, and
lava flow. Geographical analysis was done by using geographical information systems
(GIS), in order to display the geographical aspect of the lava flow area, as well as the
population distribution, and most importantly their spatial relationship.
Study Area
The Kilauea volcano is located in the south eastern portion of the Big Island of
Hawaii within the Volcano National Park (Figure 4). The park spans across an area of
505.36 square miles, and the landscape ranges from desert craters, to forests.
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Location of Kilauea
Figure 4: Map displaying the Big Island of
Hawaii and the location of Kilauea.
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The above map displays the study area location on the Hawaii Big Island. The
map was created using the GIS program and ESRI Data.
Figure 5, which is pictured to the
Districts of the Big Island of Hawaii
right, displays the districts on the Big
Island of Hawaii. The towns that were
observed are located in the districts of
Hilo, Puna, and Kau, which are found on
the south eastern portion of the island.
They surround the Hawaii National Park,
and more importantly the Kilauea
volcano.
Figure 5: Map displaying districts of the Big
Island of Hawaii. Image obtained from
www.walshappraisalsllc.com
Data Acquisition
Population density and property value data was obtained from the United States
Census Bureau for the years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Elevation Data was obtained
from the United States Geological Survey in a raster map at a 3-ARC resolution. The
distances between the volcano and the towns were calculated by using GIS by using the
measuring tool provided. Lava Flow data such as where the flow originated from, how
long it lasted, and where the flow was directed was received from the USGS as well.
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Mapping and Spatial Analysis
GIS was also used to create and visualize various data, such elevation, slope, as
well as population distribution. GIS is a computer program tool that is used to create,
analyze, and produce visual results of data.
Population density will be broken down into various census tracts around the
vicinity of the volcano, and color coded using a choropleth map.
Statistical Analysis
Correlation analysis is used to investigate the relationship between these various
variables, in which they will be mapped, graphed, and compared. There will be three sets
of correlations;
1. Distances of the towns to the volcano and total populations/population densities of
the towns.
2. Distance of the towns to the volcano and average/median property values of the
towns.
3. Slope and the risk hazard of lava flows.
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Results
The data obtained from the United States Census Bureau depicted the population
and housing for the years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Below are figures displaying the
population density during those years, as well as a table to better show the numbers.
Table 2: Table depicting the population of seven of Hawaii’s population
from 1980-2010.
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
Hilo
35,269
37,728
40,759
43,263
Population of Seven of Hawaii's CDP (Census Designated Place)
Mountain View
Pahoa Kea‘au Fern Forest
Paradise Park
540
1,038
775
†N/A
†N/A
3,075
1,099 1 ,604
223
3,369
2,799
962
2,010
480
7,051
3,924
945
2,253
931
11,012
Volcano
†N/A
1,516
2,231
2,575
Data obtained from the US Census Bureau.
In the table above depicting the populations of the different towns, it is to be
noted that the pieces of missing information with a “†” dagger symbol next to them
means that it was an area that has gone under a geographic change such as a detachment,
or name change since the information was published in 1990.
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Average Population of Hawaii’s Towns
Figure 6: Map displaying the average population of the certain towns observed of Hawaii
from the years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Data obtained from the US Census Bureau.
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Lava Flow Hazard Map of Hawaii
Looking at Figure 7, the
ranges of the increasing severity of
lava flows from the two volcanoes
Mauna Loa and Kilauea. When
looking at the level 1 hazard, which
is the most dangerous, Kilauea’s
flow goes over, or very close to,
various locations of towns and
villages.
Figure 7: Map displaying the lava flow hazards of the
Big Island of Hawaii by using different colors showing
the different levels of severity. Image obtained from the
US Geological Survey.
Elevation Map of Hawaii
As it can be seen in Figure 8 to the
right, as well as Figure 9 below, is the
elevation of the big island of Hawaii. One can
compare them and get an estimate on where
the towns lie in terms of elevation in relation
to the Kilauea volcano, as the towns are
displayed in Figure().
Figure 8: Raster map displaying the varying
elevation levels on the big island of Hawaii.
Image obtained from the United States
Geological Survey.
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Elevation Map of Hawaii
Figure 9: Map displaying more detailed elevation levels as well as the towns in the big island of Hawaii.
Image obtained from the US Geological Survey.
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Table 3: Table depicting the approximate distances the towns are from the
volcano, as well as their average elevation and estimated slope.
Approximate Distances from Kilauea to Towns Including Estimated Slope
Distance (m)
Approx. Elevation (m)
Slope(m)
Volcano
7200
1143m
0.159
Fern Forest
17000
690m
0.041
Pahoa
36400
100m
0.002
Hilo
41000
18m
4.39
Mountain View
25000
437m
0.017
Kea'au
35000
104m
0.003
Paradise Park
38800
40m
0.001
Data obtained and calculated from US Geological Survey, as well as the GIS system.
Estimated Median of House or Condo Cost in the years 2000 and 2010.
Figure 10: depicting the estimated median cost of houses and condos in
the various observed towns in the years 2000 and 2010. Data Obtained
from the US Census Bureau as well as Hawaiian Real Estate Information.
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When looking at the data from Figure 10 above, it can be seen that there is little
difference between the different towns in term of prices between the two years. The only
exception would be Fern Forest, which has a noticeably lower median price compared to
the other areas. This was surprising having the hypothesis that the median prices of the
closer towns are to the volcano, the lower the cost, thus having the theory of the town of
Volcano, having the closest proximity, would have the lowest housing cost, when in
reality it has one of the more expensive. Though in comparison the median housing cost
of the entire state of Hawaii, being around $530,000 in the year 2010, all of the observed
towns have a lower than average median of housing cost compared to the entire state. So
the hypothesis of the housing cost getting lower as the closer to the volcano they become,
according to this information observed, to be null.
The population map in Figure 6, as well as Table 2 display another interesting
trend. Hilo, the town with the farthest distance from Kilauea, does in fact have the highest
population. Volcano, which is the closest in proximity, doesn’t necessarily have the
lowest population, but it does in fact have a lower population compared to the towns
farther away. Volcano, Mountain View, and Fern Forest, which all have the closest
proximity, all have lower in average population count in all of the observed years. But
what is interesting, is that Pahoa and Kea’au also have a low population count, despite
their farther distance. I believe that could relate to the last hypothesis tested, which looks
into slope and lava flow risk hazards.
Though it being a shield volcano with a less than impressive slope, when looking
at the lava flow risk map in Figure 7, and comparing it to the town’s locations, those
towns lie closely, if not within high risk hazard zones of Kilauea lava flows.
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Although these two hypotheses of population decreasing as proximity to the
volcano gets closer, and slope affecting lava flow hazard could not necessarily be backed
up in the full extent expected, there is evidence to show that there seems to be in fact a
trend following them. I would believe that they are not null, but have indeed some
support in regards to the information observed.
Discussion
Though most of this study’s information has precise numbers, the accuracy of
them may not be 100%. A few of the town’s names varied from year to year on the US
census, and a few of them were either occasionally combined to represent one town, or
one town was split up into different sections, making it rather difficult to deceiver which
piece of information was more accurate.
The estimated housing cost of the areas is subject to change depending on how it
is viewed. The mean, or average, of the cost of housing renders a different number than
the median. The years 2000 and 2010 were the two that had information available, 1980
and 1990 were not able to produce the same information.
Another factor that could have affected the outcome of the results is the amount of
space available for people to live. Hawaii has a very limited area of which to place
civilization, the people may or may not have had much of a choice in terms of location on
where to live, as well as family’s annual income which appeared to range around $30,000
to $40,000 annually.
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This research displays how the risk of living in proximity to an active volcano can
affect the surrounding population in more ways than one. Volcanoes affect us in ways
that we might not particularly think about, whether it’s the risk of lava flows, volcanic air
pollution, seismic activity, and all things related. This research will hopefully give a
better understanding on how volcanoes can affect a population with its hazards.
This could be done in the future with more variables and information, such as
seismic activity as well as volcanic air pollution levels in more detail. Also, more towns
and years to observe to give a larger time frame and area. To continue this study,
different towns and cities in other areas to improve and expand on the research.
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Acknowledgements
I would very much like to thank my thesis advisor Dr. Kurt Peipenburg for his
insight, ideas, and guidance throughout the year for my topic, as well as my senior
seminar professor Dr. Wenjie Sun, who assisted me in starting out, and building on my
thesis. I would also like the extend my gratitude to all of the professors in the Geography
department, who’s input I greatly appreciated into improving on my thesis, as well as my
fellow geography classmates, who also helped me gain some insight on how to improve
my paper. I will always appreciate the encouragement and support given by my peers
throughout not only my senior year, but all four years here at Carthage. Lastly I would
like the thank my family, for their never ending encouragements during my educational
career, helping me become the geography major that I am today.
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