The Cost of Inaction: The Impacts of Climate
Change on U.S. Transportation and Infrastructure
April 11, 2008
"Climate change will have significant impacts on transportation, affecting the way U.S.
transportation professionals plan, design, construct, operate, and maintain infrastructure.
Focusing on the problem now should help avoid costly future investments and disruptions
to operations."
-National Research Council of the National Academies, March 11, 2008.
Despite his promises to the contrary in the 2000 election, President Bush has followed a
voluntary-only approach to climate change that has failed to produce meaningful reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, the decision by the Bush Administration to ignore
and censor peer-reviewed facts on climate change has unnecessarily politicized an issue of
profound moral and scientific importance.
American leadership is needed to address climate change. The longer the wait between now and
enactment of policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the greater the chance climate
change will be more severe and more expensive to remedy. This Fact Sheet, the second in a
series to be published by the Democratic Policy Committee, will highlight the cost that inaction on
climate change could have on U.S. transportation and infrastructure.
Transportation
Climate change poses significant threats to the transportation and infrastructure sectors in the
United States. Climate change projections of more extreme temperatures, more intense
precipitation, and stronger storms, could push our transportation system outside its design abilities
because the system was built to withstand meteorological pressures at a time when weather
conditions were more stable.
Rising sea levels and coastal highways. The predicted rise in sea levels by as much as 23
inches poses a significant threat to our coastal highways. Many coastal highways in low-lying
areas provide vital evacuation routes for coastal communities and a significant rise in sea levels
would impair most of those routes. An estimated 60,000 miles of coastal highways are already
exposed to periodic coastal storm flooding and wave action; several studies of sea level rise
project that the "transportation infrastructure in some coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico and
the Atlantic will be permanently inundated sometime in the next century." [1]
Flooding, droughts, and shipping on rivers. Significant changes in climate-including flooding
and droughts-will affect shipping on rivers in the United States. Flooding on the Mississippi and
Missouri Rivers in 1993 seriously impeded the transportation of grains and other bulk commodities
on barges. Since many railroad tracks are located adjacent to rivers, the ability to transfer
shipments from barge to rail would be impaired as well. Drought can also significantly disrupt
commercial navigation on rivers where channel depths are dependent upon water-flows. For
instance, severe droughts stranded more than 4,000 barges[2] in 1998 (each of these barges can
carry up to 52,000 bushels of grain.[3]) At today's price for a bushel of corn the loss of 4,000 barges
would cost the agricultural sector more than $1.2 billion.
Shipping on the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway. In the northern parts of the
contiguous United States, warmer temperatures could lead to increased evaporation on the Great
Lakes and reduce the amount of lake ice during the winter. This would lead to a potential drop in
lake levels and reduce the shipping capacity of the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway.
The potential drop in lake levels would have a significant impact on the shipping industry. The
Great Lakes Carriers Association has estimated that when lake levels are reduced by one inch, a
1,000 foot ship loses 270 tons of cargo capacity.[4] In order to counteract this loss in cargo
capacity, shipping companies would either be forced to add more ships to their fleets, which would
increase operational costs, or transport less cargo, which would delay shipments and increase the
costs of doing business in the region. The Great Lakes region is home to about 70 percent of the
steel industry in North America and about half of the heavy manufacturing in the United States.[5]
Rail transportation. Climate change and related flooding could severely disrupt rail shipments.
Hurricane Katrina damaged "the New Orleans interchange rail gateway-one of only four major rail
crossings of the Mississippi River" and more than 60 percent of CSX's track mileage between
"Mobile and New Orleans and five railroad bridges between Biloxi and New Orleans."[6] The
estimated reconstruction costs for CSX totaled about $300 million or approximately one quarter of
its annual operating revenue that was available for capital investment.
Frozen private roads and logging. The expected rise in temperatures associated with climate
change will increase the time periods during which the frozen dirt roads that logging companies
use will become muddier and more difficult to traverse. This is important because logging
companies typically employ more people during the winter months when it is easier to transport
logs on frozen roads that are more easily navigable. In Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and New
York, almost 100,000 people are employed in forest-based manufacturing jobs that generate
annual payrolls of approximately $3 billion.[7]
Infrastructure
According to the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies, environmental
factors are critical to the design of transportation infrastructure.
Conditions such as temperature, freeze-thaw cycles, and duration and intensity of precipitation
determine subsurface and foundation designs, the choice of materials, and drainage capacity. A
recent TRB report concluded that engineers have "given little thought to whether current design
standards are adequate to accommodate climate change."[8]
Increases in hurricane intensity on highways, pipelines, and rail. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that it is likely that future typhoons and hurricanes will
be more intense, have stronger periods of peak wind speeds, and increased precipitation. The
IPCC has concluded that "in the near term, it is expected that favorable conditions for Atlantic
hurricanes will persist for the next decade," and that in the longer term "climate models project an
increase in the intensity of strong hurricanes in the twenty-first century."[9]
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita heavily damaged and destroyed critical highway and railroad bridges
which necessitated the "rerouting of traffic and placing increased strain on other routes,
particularly other rail lines. Barge shipping was halted, as was export grain traffic out of the Port of
New Orleans, the nation's largest export grain port. The pipeline network was shut down,
producing shortages of natural gas and petroleum products." The bridges on U.S. 90 along the
Gulf Coast took two years to repair.
The costs of repairing the major transportation facilities damaged and closed by Hurricanes Katina
and Rita total "more than $1.1 billion and the replacement of the I-10 twin Span Bridge between
New Orleans and Slidell, Louisiana, will add nearly another $1 billion."[10]
Temperature extremes and highway deterioration. Greater and more prolonged instances of
temperature extremes will increase the rate of highway deterioration. For example, extremely hot
days, over an extended period of time, could lead to the "rutting of highway pavement and the
more rapid breakdown of asphalt seal binders, resulting in cracking, potholing, and bleeding. This,
in turn, could damage the structural integrity of the road." Rebuilding these highways will be
expensive: according to the Federal Highway Administration, the composite price trend in FederalAid for highway construction has increased from 145 in 2001 to 221 in 2006. [11] The "composite
price" is the price for the six primary highway construction items: excavation; portland cement
concrete pavement; bituminous concrete pavement; reinforcing steel; structural steel; and
structural concrete.
Pipelines. More frequent and stronger storms will mean more fracturing and scouring of pipelines
as erosion exposes them to the elements. While federal regulations require that pipelines carrying
hazardous materials in the lower 48 states be buried with a minimum of three feet of cover and up
to five feet near heavily populated areas, stronger storms can erode the soil cover of pipelines and
make them susceptible to damage. Additionally, pipelines located within or near ultra-shallow
seabed waters could become exposed to sea water from stronger storm waves. According to the
Minerals Management Service, approximately 550 pipeline damage reports were filed after
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf Coast.[12] The damage to these pipelines helped to account
for the more than 1.43 million barrel per day reduction in Gulf of Mexico oil production recorded in
the days after Hurricane Katrina (total U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production is 1.58 million barrels per
day).[13]'[14]
Kinked Pipeline, 2006 Hurricane Pipeline Presentation. Shell Oil Company
Airports and aircraft. Increased temperatures and more frequent periods of extremely high
temperatures will place added stress on airport runways and may cause runway buckling. Higher
temperatures can also impact aircraft lift ability. Less dense and warmer air during take off
reduces the mass of air that flows over aircraft wings; as a result, airplanes need more runway
space to take off. This could force airports to extend runways or put additional payload restrictions
on aircraft. A recent 1,800 foot runway extension in Flagstaff, Arizona cost approximately $16
million.[15]
[1] Transportation Research Board, "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation," March 11, 2008.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Food and Agricultural Research Institute, " Grain Transportation and Marketing Channels," June 2004.
[4] New York Times, "Inch by Inch, Great Lakes Shrink, and Cargo Carriers Face Losses," October 22, 2007.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Transportation Research Board, "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation," March 11, 2008.
[7] Empire State Forest Products Association; Maine Wood Products Association; North East State Foresters
Association; Vermont Wood Manufacturers Association; USDA Forest Service-Cooperative Forestry, "Economic
Contribution of the Northern Forest," http://www.vermontwood.com/pdf/vwmamain.pdf
[8] Transportation Research Board, "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation," March 11, 2008.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Ibid.
[11] Federal Highway Administration, "Price Trends for Federal-Aid Highway Construction,"
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/programadmin/pt2006q4.cfm
[12] Minerals Management Service, "Pipeline Damage Assessment from Hurricane Katrina/Rita," March 21, 2007.
[13] Minerals Management Service, "Hurricane Katrina Evacuation and Production Shut-in Statistics Report," August
30, 2005.
[14] Energy Information Administration, "Hurricane Impacts on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets," December 27,
2007.
[15] Arizona Travel, "Flagstaff Airport Wins Funds for Runway Lengthening," September 26, 2006.