Ladies and Gentlemen,
Below is some additional information put out by the County Emergency Management office from today’s 6:00AM Nat’l Wx
Service update.
The satellite image from 315 AM Wednesday, September 1st shows Earl has weakened slightly to a CAT 3 storm. This is
due to interaction with drier air and increased shear. Conditions are still favorable for Earl to maintain CAT 3 status up to the
NC coast.
The official track of Earl continues to show a very close brush along the NC Coast. Earl is expected to be within 60 miles
of Cape Hatteras at 2 AM Friday morning. Even a small wobble in its track could result in a landfall. The majority of
forecast models keep the center of Earl off the NC coast. The Navy NOGAPS model takes a left track and makes landfall on
the coast. Decision makers should remain open to the possibility of landfall.
The entire OBX is near or above 60% probability for tropical storm force winds. Cape Hatteras is highest at a 69% chance.
Morehead City shows a 55% chance. Most of the OBX is at a 10% - 20% probability for hurricane force winds, highest for
Cape Hatteras at 21% chance. Morehead City has an 8% chance for hurricane force winds. Even though it is only an
8% chance, this is still a high impact event.
There is no anticipation of any significant flooding problems. Earl will be a fast moving storm with the highest rainfall rates
along and east of the track. Based on the latest track guidance, the best rainfall potential will be along the coastal areas and
the OBX where about 2 to 3 inches of rain is possible.
The rip current threat will be high everywhere starting today due to swells. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet. Seas will peak at
20 to 25 fee Thursday night into early Friday morning. Breaking waves will be 4 to 6 feet along all coastal areas today,
building to 8 to 10 feet tonight. The peak in breaking waves will come late Thursday into early Friday at around 15 feet.
Storm surge will also peak Thursday night into early Friday morning at 1 to 2 feet along the ocean. The surge will couple
with the high wave run up to produce significant beach erosion and over wash. Sections of Hwy 12 along OBX will likely be
affected starting Thursday night. High tide around 3 AM Friday morning will be particularly dangerous.
Soundside flooding will also be a concern. 2 to 3 feet of inundation is likely along the Neuse River in Craven, Downeast
Carteret, and Southern Pamlico Counties and into Core Sound Thursday night.
Highest wind threats will be along the OBX and Eastern Carteret County. Coastal locations from Cape Hatteras south will
see winds increase to tropical storm force as early as 5 to 7 pm Thursday. North of Cape Hatteras an increase to tropical
storm force winds will be between 7 to 9 pm Thursday. The OBX will see sustained winds of 60 KT by 6 am Friday
morning.
Carteret County will see sustained winds of 40 to 50 KT with gusts to 60 KT.
Significantly higher impacts will be felt should the track of Earl shift even slightly west. We should prepare as if a
CAT 3 hurricane is going to make landfall.
We are updating our 1610 AM broadcast loops as we get updates. We should all have battery powered radios (with an
AM band function) at this point.
Vr
bjk
Brian Kramer
Town Manager
Pine Knoll Shores, NC
Office--(252)-247-4353