FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FORECAST NO. 3 PREDICTION FOR: FIRE NAME: Buckhorn-Davis Ranch SHIFT DATE: April 29, 2000, Saturday DATE ISSUED: Apr 29, 2000 TIME ISSUED: 0700h AGENCY/UNIT: Larimer County SIGNED: Day SHIFT Kelly Close; Fire Behavior Analyst, Poudre Fire Authority, CO FORECAST SUMMARY: Expect temperatures to be cooler and RH to increase as a low pressure trough develops over the area. Scattered showers and T-storm development expected in the afternoon, with a good chance of lightning (LAL 4 after 1300h). T-storms will be mostly dry initially, but the system will quickly become moister and measurable ppt. is likely by evening. TEMPERATURES: Maximum temperatures will be 58-66F during the day. HUMIDITY: Minimum RH will be 25-35% during the day; based on the trend the last few days, expect this to occur at approx. 1500h. WINDS: 20-ft. winds will be SE 4-9 mph, and winds along higher exposed ridges will be SW 20-30 mph. Expect gusty, erratic winds if afternoon cumulus buildup occurs. HAINES INDEX: 4 (low potential for plume-dominated fire growth). STABILITY: Expect the general airmass to become unstable Saturday afternoon, with cumulus buildup and T-storm development with potential for lightning activity. EXTENDED FORECAST Sunday: A trough will develop across the district Sun. and Mon. This will bring colder temps. And a chance of snow to some areas, though likely rain or rain/snow mix in the fire area. 3-5 Day: As the trough moves east of the area Tue.-Wed., conditions are forecast to “improve” (most likely meaning warmer/drier). OBSERVED WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS DAY Morning: Morning conditions agreed reasonably well with the forecast; RH was higher than forecast, and temps somewhat lower. Afternoon: Afternoon conditions were cooler than the spot and zone forecasts predicted. Winds were light and variable, maximum temperatures 54-55, and minimum RH 44-46%. Additional feedback to the Natl. Weather Service may help improve accuracy of spot forecasts. Overall, the forecasts for today agreed better with forecast conditions than yesterday.