FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FORECAST NO.
3
PREDICTION FOR:
FIRE NAME:
Buckhorn-Davis Ranch
SHIFT DATE:
April 29, 2000, Saturday
DATE ISSUED:
Apr 29, 2000
TIME ISSUED:
0700h
AGENCY/UNIT:
Larimer County
SIGNED:
Day
SHIFT
Kelly Close; Fire Behavior Analyst, Poudre Fire Authority, CO
FORECAST
SUMMARY:
Expect temperatures to be cooler and RH to increase as a low pressure trough develops over the area.
Scattered showers and T-storm development expected in the afternoon, with a good chance of lightning
(LAL 4 after 1300h). T-storms will be mostly dry initially, but the system will quickly become moister
and measurable ppt. is likely by evening.
TEMPERATURES:
Maximum temperatures will be 58-66F during the day.
HUMIDITY:
Minimum RH will be 25-35% during the day; based on the trend the last few days, expect this to occur at
approx. 1500h.
WINDS:
20-ft. winds will be SE 4-9 mph, and winds along higher exposed ridges will be SW 20-30 mph. Expect
gusty, erratic winds if afternoon cumulus buildup occurs.
HAINES INDEX:
4 (low potential for plume-dominated fire growth).
STABILITY:
Expect the general airmass to become unstable Saturday afternoon, with cumulus buildup and T-storm
development with potential for lightning activity.
EXTENDED FORECAST
Sunday:
A trough will develop across the district Sun. and Mon. This will bring colder temps. And a chance of
snow to some areas, though likely rain or rain/snow mix in the fire area.
3-5 Day:
As the trough moves east of the area Tue.-Wed., conditions are forecast to “improve” (most likely
meaning warmer/drier).
OBSERVED WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS DAY
Morning:
Morning conditions agreed reasonably well with the forecast; RH was higher than forecast, and temps
somewhat lower.
Afternoon:
Afternoon conditions were cooler than the spot and zone forecasts predicted. Winds were light and
variable, maximum temperatures 54-55, and minimum RH 44-46%. Additional feedback to the Natl.
Weather Service may help improve accuracy of spot forecasts. Overall, the forecasts for today agreed
better with forecast conditions than yesterday.