INFLUENZA RESEARCH 2010: PANDEMIC RESPONSE AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS 1 Great George Street, Westminster, London, UK Thursday June 24th 2010 MEETING NOTE PREPARED BY DAVID EVANS AND TOM SUTHERLAND REVIEWED BY FREDERICK HAYDEN 1. On 24 June 2010, the Wellcome Trust Influenza Research Team held a satellite workshop meeting at the Pacific Health Summit 2010 to review the team’s activities and those of its partners in the context of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and to discuss implementation of the recently posted World Health Organization Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza. As many of the team’s activities have been conducted in collaboration with organisations in the UK and other countries, the meeting also provided an opportunity to hear from the colleagues working in these partners of the Trust, particularly from those in the World Health Organization. 2. Jimmy Whitworth, Head of International Activities at the Trust opened the meeting and gave an overview of the format of the day (Agenda attached at Annex A). The main sessions, covered in further detail below, were as follows: Session 1 – Pandemic influenza research in the UK Session 2 – WHO: pandemic influenza vaccines Session 3 – WHO Research Agenda for Influenza Panel discussion: taking forward global influenza research SESSION 1: PANDEMIC INFLUENZA RESEARCH IN THE UK 3. This session was opened by Fred Hayden, Influenza Research Coordinator at the Trust, who provided details of the major activities the Influenza Research Team has been involved with since autumn 2008. The audience then had an opportunity to hear about three specific research projects developed rapidly in response to the influenza H1N1 pandemic and in part supported by the Trust. Influenza activities and UK funders’ response to pandemic H1N1 Professor Frederick Hayden (Wellcome Trust) Fred Hayden provided context of the Trust’s involvement in UK pandemic influenza research projects. In response to the H1N1 pandemic, the Trust and other UK partners convened meetings of the clinical research community (May 2009) and veterinary research community (June 2009) to develop new or enhanced research responses to the pandemic. Based on recommendations from these meetings, the three principal UK studies covered in further detail in the other presentations in this session, were: The Mechanisms of Severe Acute Influenza Consortium (MOSAIC) – a wide ranging study of influenza pathogenesis in patients hospitalised with severe H1N1 disease during the pandemic (MRC and Wellcome Trust) FluWatch – a large community-based cohort study examining epidemiology, severity, treatment and vaccination strategies of influenza (MRC and Wellcome Trust) 1 The Combating Swine Influenza initiative (COSI) – a study to monitor and compare the evolution, transmission, infection dynamics and immunopathology of H1N1 in pigs and humans (BBSRC and Wellcome Trust) The Trust also invited influenza-related proposals from its Major Overseas Programmes (MOPs) in Africa and Asia in response to the pandemic. Studies that have been funded include: Studies of severe pneumonia and respiratory viruses at hospital and community levels in Kenya (James Nokes). Hospital-based surveillance for influenza in an African population with a high burden of HIV, malaria and malnutrition in Malawi (Rob Heyderman). A range of clinical research on serious human, including pandemic H1N1, and avian influenza and other infectious diseases of public health importance in the South East Asian region (through the South East Asian Infectious Disease Clinical Research Network). Fred Hayden provided an overview of the Trust’s efforts in collaborating with the World Health Organization, both on developing the WHO Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza1, on a range of influenza vaccine-related activities2 and on meetings related to clinical aspects and management of pandemic H1N1 patients3 to set the scene for later presentations (see Annex B for a summary of recent meetings involving WHO and the Trust). A summary of the full range of activities can be found at www.wellcome.ac.uk/influenza. Mechanisms of Severe Acute Influenza Consortium (MOSAIC) Professor Peter Openshaw (Imperial College London) Professor Openshaw provided an overview of the MOSAIC study, a multi-centre project involving a large network of collaborators designed to investigate severe influenza disease in hospitalised patients. The grant was awarded in November 2009, and built on the existing work of the Centre for Respiratory Infection at Imperial College London to study pathogenesis of respiratory viral diseases and to enhance pandemic preparedness and response. The MOSAIC study comprises eight separate work packages run from a number of UK centres, with the core administrative element of the project run out of the Centre for Respiratory Infection at Imperial College. In total, the project involves around 45 investigators in 8 major research centres in England and Scotland. The project aims to obtain samples from 500 hospitalised adults and children to investigate virology, bacteriology, host genetics, cellular immunology and immune mediators. Professor Openshaw discussed the difficulties of launching a timely study in response to the pandemic. One of the primary causes for delay was securing Research and Development (R&D) approval at the various hospitals involved. Each hospital required submission of different forms, requesting different information and went through different processes to award R&D approval. This caused major delays, and in one instance it took 8 months to secure R&D approval from a participating hospital. This information has been collated in a report (Cross and Openshaw, evidence provided to the review of the regulation and governance of medical research) to the Academy of Medical Sciences 1 http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/2010_04_29_global_influenza_research_agenda_version_01_en.pdf http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/inforesources/en/index.html 3 http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/swineflu/clinical_management_h1n1.pdf 2 2 in 2010. The key message of this report is that regulation and governance needs to be harmonised and streamlined at the simplest of the currently diverse standards and that reciprocity of approval should be recognised between hospitals so repeated applications are not necessary. Despite these hurdles the project has managed to recruit a small cohort from the second wave of the pandemic. This has allowed MOSAIC’s clinical protocols to be tested and has allowed the infrastructure to respond to the next outbreak wave to be developed. Over 2000 samples have been collected and stored. It was noted that the LabCollector system used for this had been essential and allowed samples to be easily catalogued for later analyses. It was also noted that of the 85 patients enrolled, only around 30% were H1N1 positive. There were 2 fatalities among the patients recruited to the study. Investigators are currently analysing the initial samples collected before the next wave of subjects is anticipated to be recruited during the 2010-11 influenza season. FluWatch surveillance programme Dr Andrew Hayward (UCL) Dr Hayward provided an overview of the FluWatch study, a national household cohort study to examine community-based influenza transmission and immunity. The study was set up in 2006 with MRC funding, and expanded in 2009 in light of the pandemic with funding from MRC and the Trust. The FluWatch study has recruited around 4300 subjects during the 2009/10 influenza season. Subjects are recruited as whole households, and followed up weekly by onlineor telephone-based surveys to detect respiratory symptoms. Participants also maintain a detailed diary. Self-collected nasal swabs and temperature readings are submitted during periods of illness for detection of influenza virus infection, and additional samples are taken to analyse influenza-specific serology and T cell immune responses before and after infection in a subset of patients. One of the main findings of the study is that the rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) and confirmed influenza infection based on RT-PCR appears to be much higher in the community than data from GP-based surveillance would indicate, both during seasonal and pandemic influenza periods. Infection rates as measured by serology were substantially higher than clinical attack rates during the pandemic, an observation suggesting that many infections were asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. In addition, the study found that levels of vaccination were very low in target groups with a high proportion of vaccination occurring around or after the winter peak of influenza; that most oseltamivir prescriptions in the cohort were to those who did not have virological evidence of H1N1 infection when tested, and that only about 5% of those with ILI during the fall wave of the pandemic received antiviral treatment. Dr Hayward also touched on the barriers to rapid roll-out of large scale national community studies during a pandemic. As with the MOSAIC study, R&D approval caused delays, with applications taking over a month to be approved. He concluded that the current research governance system introduces severe delays to studies recruiting through primary care. They also faced other recruitment problems. One of the barriers to recruitment was competition from industry trials that were able to offer remuneration for participation.The original aim was to scale up recruitment to 10,000 household members, but ultimately a total of 4283 was achieved. However, this still represented the largest study of its type to date. Pandemic H1N1 and swine: the Combating Swine Influenza (COSI) initiative Dr Ian Brown (Veterinary Laboratories Agency) 3 Dr Brown gave an overview of the COSI initiative, which comprises two linked grants. Firstly, a ‘model’ or experimental inoculation grant conducted at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency is investigating transmission, infection dynamics and immunopathology of pandemic H1N1 2009 virus in pigs, in part to assess comparability to human infections. Secondly, a ‘population’ grant conducted at the University of Cambridge is examining the epidemiological and evolutionary characteristics of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in pigs and the associated occupational risks. Dr Brown presented a range of initial results from both studies. Initial results from the ‘model’ grant suggest that following viral infection, shedding is influenced by age, with older swine showing shorter shedding periods with less overall virus replication. The study has also looked at prior-immunity, which appears to affect transmission. Experiments to examine the cellular immune responses to GSK and Baxter vaccines are underway, with a clear difference between the immune responses to the two vaccines already apparent. The ‘population’ grant component seeks to investigate outbreaks of influenza in pigs, pig farmers and veterinarians; quantify farm level infection dynamics; and conduct whole virus sequencing of virus samples from outbreaks. Cohort studies for non-pandemic and pandemic viruses have also been used to determine incidence on pig farms and risk factors for endemic infection. Mathematical modelling and analysis of data at the population and ‘within host’ levels are used to predict possible transmission and understand mechanisms of disease in pigs, respectively. Early results have shown that the pandemic virus caused frequent infections in pig populations in the UK (~30% farm level incidence), with a clustering of prior H1N1 infection in northern England. In addition, H1N1 seroprevalence in veterinarians exposed to pigs was found to be much higher than in the non-pig exposed population. Whole genome sequencing on the Sanger Illumina platform of 60 archived swine viruses has to date found no evidence of a recent pandemic precursor (although only the N and M genes have been analysed so far). The first session concluded with an opportunity for the audience to ask questions on each of the presentations. The following areas were among those covered in the Q&A session: Animal Human interface. Surveillance and reporting requirements for influenza in animal populations, particularly the differences in reporting standards for poultry and swine, and the importance of these differences on research, surveillance and our understanding of the human/animal interface were discussed. Angus Nicholl commented that the EU has only one example of enzoonotic swine influenza crossing to humans. Nancy Cox reported significantly higher numbers of zoonotic cases in the US and attributed the difference primarily to the fact that cases of swine influenza in humans are notifiable in the US but not in the EU. Delays in clinical research. The regulatory hurdles that need to be overcome to conducting research in a pandemic setting, in particular the difficulties in obtaining R&D approval in individual hospitals in the UK were noted. The UK Academy of Medical Sciences is looking at this issue; Prof Openshaw presented details of his submission to the consultation. In other countries, specifically the US, delays in initiating clinical studies during the pandemic were often related to the current requirement for obtaining ethical approval at each participating centre and the lack of existing networks to undertake studies. A possible solution, of pre-approval of projects (ethics and other regulatory requirements) and pre–positioning of protocols at qualified sites was suggested to alleviate the problem of delays in the event of a pandemic. Another suggestion was to set up a network to study severe acute respiratory infection, which would be valuable in itself, but also could be scaled up to provide a research platform during a future pandemic. 4 SESSION 2: WHO: PANDEMIC INFLUENZA VACCINES Pandemic plans and H1N1 vaccine experience: production, access, distribution and effectiveness Dr Marie-Paule Kieny (IVR, WHO) Dr Kieny provided an update of the WHO pandemic vaccine response. In 2006, WHO published the Global Action Plan1, highlighting the main strategies for the WHO to work with others to increase access to pandemic influenza vaccine in developing countries. The strategy aimed to increase the use of seasonal influenza vaccines, enhance overall production capacity, and stimulate research and development of new technologies. Since 2006, WHO has pursued a range of related activities, including a global survey of seasonal influenza vaccine use and an analysis of the parameters for the establishment of a H5N1 influenza vaccine stockpile. Dr Kieny reported that globally, there are more than 35 manufacturers of influenza vaccines, 10 in China alone. She highlighted the technology transfer development project grants awarded to manufacturers in 11 developing countrie , who have played a part in making global influenza vaccine production more equitable. WHO has also signed a royalty-free, sub-licensable licence with Nobilon-Schering-Plough-Merck on Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV) technology, and to date sublicenses have been provided to 3 developing country manufacturers. Of note, the Serum Institute of India received a license for their pandemic LAIV in June 2010. Based on capital expenditure to date compared to the number of forecasted annual doses produced, it was noted that the average cost per vaccine dose from these manufacturers was around US$ 3.3, with cell culture-based inactivated influenza vaccines significantly higher than egg-based LAIV. Moving to the WHO H1N1 pandemic response, Dr. Kieny noted that four priorities in the H1N1 pandemic response plan relate to vaccines: facilitating rapid development and manufacture of pandemic vaccine; providing guidance on the use of pandemic vaccine; monitoring vaccine safety; and increased vaccine access for low and middle income countries. One problem was that the production capacity of pandemic influenza vaccines as of January 2010 was lower than expected at around 1.3 billion doses, partly due to poor egg yields. This highlights the ongoing fragility of global production capacity. In terms of vaccine safety, there have been no new signals with around 350 million pandemic H1N1 doses administered. Dr Kieny presented preliminary results from an ECDC study (I-MOVE) which indicates that vaccine effectiveness was ≥70%. There were limitations to the study such as wide 95% confidence intervals due to the small numbers of people vaccinated. The small numbers also meant that stratification by brand and age group was not possible. The study does indicate that the response was generally good and comparable to effectiveness of the seasonal vaccine. Finally, Dr Kieny provided details of the WHO Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) vaccine deployment initiative, which aims to help 97 developing countries to protect against severe disease from H1N1 by coordinating the distribution of 200 million doses of donated H1N1 vaccine. Issues arising from the deployment initiative have included concluding donation agreements with donor partners, issues around indemnification from liability requested by manufacturers, country readiness and regulatory constraints. Prior to receiving vaccine, WHO has requested countries to develop acceptable vaccine deployment plans. These have been completed and finalised by 73 countries to date, a process that should greatly facilitate country planning and response to the next pandemic. WHO has also produced framework legal agreements to facilitate the process. To date, ca. 37 million doses have been delivered, with around 39 million 1 http://www.who.int/vaccines-documents/DocsPDF06/863.pdf 5 doses expected to be delivered in the coming months. The initiative has allowed WHO to gain significant experience on crafting global agreements that address the liability concerns of the donor companies or governments and recipient countries. The following areas were among those covered in the Q&A session: Uptake of vaccines within countries. It was noted that most countries which received donated vaccines used vaccines in targeted risk groups like pregnant women, health care workers and children. However, uptake overall has been low. Further work to assess how the donated vaccines were used and whether they were delivered effectively (who received vaccine, how quickly etc) needs to be undertaken. At global level uptake of pandemic vaccine was quite variable across countries. The majority of countries had planned to vaccinate pregnant women, health care workers and children. However, more data are needed to help countries establish what their at-risk populations actually are, in order to inform planning and vaccine delivery. Next steps needed to build on the momentum of the WHO GAP activities. Continuing the technology transfer programme and building demand for seasonal influenza vaccines were seen as priorities for improving the sustainability of vaccine production capacity. It was noted that strategies for building demand in resourcelimited settings need particular attention with respect to understanding burden of influenza disease in the context of other healthcare priorities and the key target populations (e.g., pregnant women, healthcare workers). SESSION 3: WHO RESEARCH AGENDA FOR INFLUENZA WHO Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza: development and implementation. Dr John Tam (GIP WHO). 1 Dr Tam, Global Influenza Programme, provided an overview of progress and recent developments on the WHO Public Health Research Agenda for influenza 1. The main goal of the research agenda is to help support the development of evidence needed to strengthen public health guidance and actions essential for limiting the impact of influenza in all its forms, pandemic, zoonotic and seasonal influenza. In response to calls for WHO coordination of influenza research in 2002 and 2006, the agenda developed from WHO meetings starting in 2008 and was posted publicly for the first time in April 2010. WHO held a 4-day consultation on the research agenda in November 2009 to discuss, review and prioritise research topics based on public health needs. The consultation process distilled the number of research questions to approximately 250 and prioritised them into the five topic streams, each of which contain a number of broad, overarching research recommendations: (1) reducing the risk of emergence of pandemic influenza; (2) limiting the spread of influenza; (3) minimising the impact of influenza; (4) optimising the treatment of patients; and (5) development and application of modern public health tools. The WHO is now looking towards further refinement and implementation of the influenza research agenda. Planned next steps include developing regional-level research agendas for influenza that take into account regional and local needs. As a first step, a consultation process is planned for each of the WHO regions during the current year; that for Africa was conducted in June 2010. In addition, GIP plan to host workshops on cross-cutting topics including surveillance, modelling, diagnostics, and risk communication, the latter covered in a workshop held in Geneva in May 2010. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/2010_04_29_global_influenza_research_agenda_version_01_en.pdf 6 The following areas were among those covered in the Q&A session: The implementation and monitoring process for the Agenda, as well as its integration with other activities, remains under discussion. A core progress monitoring group is envisioned to regularly assess new developments and modify the Agenda accordingly. The importance of advocacy building to ensure awareness of the WHO Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza. It was seen as important that researchers within different global regions come up with their own proposals. Building a body of evidence on behavioural research was seen by some as essential to all of the research streams, and therefore needs to be incorporated throughout the agenda. Similarly other tools like modelling and diagnostics were viewed as fundamental for many specific research topics. Monitoring published research was viewed as important, although it was also viewed as important to monitor ‘in progress’ research to minimise unwanted duplication in efforts to address research gaps. Dr Tam explained that WHO has early plans to develop monitoring centres around the world to track and monitor research. A web-based method of tracking research efforts was also seen as a possible way forward. PANEL DISCUSSION: TAKING FORWARD GLOBAL INFLUENZA RESEARCH Panel members: Professor Fred Hayden (Wellcome Trust) – Chair Dr Nancy Cox (US CDC) Professor David Salisbury (UK Department of Health) Dr Norbert Hehme (IFPMA) Professor Malik Peiris (University of Hong Kong). Dr Suwit Wibulpolprasert (Ministry of Public Health, Thailand) Dr Marie-Paule Kieny (IVR, WHO) Dr Linda Lambert (US NIH) Dr John Tam (GIP, WHO) Dr Douglas Holtzman (BMGF) The panel session covered a broad range of topics, including: Clinical research needs. It was noted that we need to invest in conducting epidemiologic, pathogenesis, and intervention studies in the inter-pandemic period, both in the community and in those hospitalized with more severe illness. Such initiatives would serve to not only build this research capacity as a platform for response to new threats but also to understand the impact of annual outbreaks of influenza and other respiratory pathogens and test measures to mitigate their impact. In addition, such projects need to involve the next generation of clinical investigators, particularly in less resourced countries, to develop a new cadre of researchers. Initiatives like the South East Asia Infectious Disease Clinical Research Network were seen as valuable models in this regard. Surveillance and operational research at the human/animal interface and clinical studies on patient management, particularly those with severe illness, were seen as areas with current unmet research needs, whereas development and testing of new vaccines are currently more well-resourced research areas. For example, in terms of the research response to the pandemic, Malik Peiris reported that abstracts for the upcoming Options VII meeting in Hong Kong were dominated by vaccine studies, whereas studies involving animals or clinical management were the most under represented. 7 Clinical management. The need for novel antivirals, new formulations for use in special populations (e.g., neonates/infants, ICU patients), and studies of drug combinations was highlighted. A comparison to the SARS response was drawn, in which a robust laboratory effort led to the rapid identification of the pathogen and conventional public health measures were effective in limiting its spread. In contrast, determination of its genesis and on best practices for treating affected persons was much delayed. Even now the appropriate therapies for SARS patients are undefined. In addition, the very modest extent to which vaccine research efforts prior to the pandemic actually contributed to our ability to respond to the pandemic was noted. Social measures were seen by some as potentially more important, though the research base in this area is much less developed. Communication and behavioural research. The importance of research on communication and behaviour modification including compliance with recommended public health measures was identified as a key gap in research need. It was noted that the European Commission has a new call for proposals specifically in this area, which could complement the WHO research agenda process. Vaccine access. The question was raised whether we are using old, fundamentally flawed strategies such as advance purchase commitments and vaccine stockpiling, both of which favour well-resourced countries, in our pandemic vaccine response. There was also discussion that even with significant improvements in the time in which vaccines can be produced, a vaccine made in response to a pandemic influenza virus would still only ever be received by the survivors of the first (and maybe even the second) wave of a pandemic. One suggestion was that research efforts should perhaps be focussed instead on cross protective/universal epitope vaccines. There was lengthy discussion of ways in which vaccines could be produced more rapidly in response to a pandemic. These included identification of potential pandemic strains so that a library of candidate seed viruses, as well as associated primers and probes for detection can be developed. The pre-production of vaccine strains for a variety of potential pandemic strains was also suggested, although work will need to be done to establish whether this is practical, or whether the number of potential pandemic strains is too large. There were also suggestions of further research into parallel production methodologies with novel technologies to allow more rapid vaccine production, as well as the use of adjuvant to allow antigen sparing. There are also needs for more accurate and rapid quality control methods, such as HPLC or mass spectroscopy, for checking the purity and quantity of vaccine antigen produced. More rapid vaccine approval. Some of the factors behind the delay in releasing pandemic H1N1 vaccines and how the timing for producing the ‘first dose’ could be reduced were discussed. However, it was also noted that the timings of the median and last doses were perhaps better measures of our response to the pandemic. In addition, it was suggested that a strong message needs to be sent to regulatory authorities that a different set of ‘rules’ is perhaps needed in a pandemic setting. There needs to be constructive thinking on reducing the burden of beaurocracy by forging increased willingness for mutual respect of licences. Vaccine immunogenicity and correlates of immunity. It was also seen as important to develop new ways to evaluate some of the newer vaccine technologies to ensure we are assessing their immunogenicity and efficacy properly. The scientific community and regulatory authorities need to move beyond the current approaches, particularly in validating correlates of immunity other than traditional serologic techniques, as 8 these do not work reliably for live-attenuated, conserved epitope, or other novel nonHA based vaccines . Dr Suwit Wibulpolprasert, from the Thai Ministry of Health questioned whether more research on pharmacologic interventions could contribute to better preparedness in less well resourced countries. He made the observations that while resources could have been saved if we had known in advance that only one dose of vaccine was enough to elicit protection or more doses delivered if we had been able to produce the vaccine faster, these changes would be of little benefit to the Thai people or those in less-resourced countries. From a less economically developed country perspective, he thought that there is a far greater need for research focus on social and public health measures which are low cost and easy to implement. Research into public health communication, and development of broadly applicable nonpharmaceutical interventions would be far more useful in allowing developing countries to protect themselves, although their effectiveness, especially in the face of a more lethal threat, remains to be established. 9 ANNEX A: AGENDA Influenza Research 2010: Pandemic Response and Future Directions 1 Great George Street, Westminster, London, UK Thursday June 24th 12.30-1.30pm Lunch 1.30-1.40 Welcome and overview, Dr Jimmy Whitworth (Wellcome Trust) Session 1: Pandemic influenza research in the UK 1.40 - 1.50 Influenza activities and UK funders’ response to pandemic H1N1 Professor Frederick Hayden (Wellcome Trust). 1.50 - 2.00 Mechanisms of Severe Acute Influenza Consortium (MOSAIC) Professor Peter Openshaw (Imperial College London). 2.00 - 2.10 FluWatch surveillance programme Dr Andrew Hayward (UCL). 2.10 - 2.25 Pandemic H1N1 and swine: the Combating Swine Influenza (COSI) initiative Dr Ian Brown (Veterinary Laboratories Agency). 2.25 - 2.40 Q&A Session 2: WHO: Pandemic influenza vaccines 2.40 - 3.05 Pandemic plans and H1N1 vaccine experience: production, access, distribution and effectiveness. Dr Marie-Paule Kieny (IVR WHO). 3.05 - 3.20 Q&A 3.20 - 3.40 Tea and coffee Session 3: Research Agenda for Influenza 3.40 - 4.00 WHO Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza: development and implementation. Dr John Tam (GIP WHO). 4.00 - 4.50 Panel discussion: Taking forward Global Influenza Research. Professor Fred Hayden (Wellcome Trust) – Chair. Dr Nancy Cox (US CDC). Professor David Salisbury (UK Department of Health). Dr Norbert Hehme (IFPMA) Professor Malik Peiris (University of Hong Kong). Dr Suwit Wibulpolprasert (Ministry of Public Health, Thailand). Dr Marie-Paule Kieny (IVR, WHO). Dr Linda Lambert (US NIH). Dr John Tam (GIP, WHO). Dr Douglas Holtzman (BMGF). 4.50 - 5.00 Closing remarks 10 ANNEX B: 11