COORDINATED GROUND-BASED AND SPACE OBSERVING
SYSTEMS TOWARD NATURAL DISASTER FORECASTING AND/OR
MONITORING OF MULTIHAZARD SEIMOGENIC RISKS
P. Nenovski1, D. Teodosiev2, F. Hruška3, J.Chum3, J. Laštovička3, U. Villante4, M.
Vellante4, K. Schwingenschuh5, M. Boudjada5, I. Cholakov1, V. Wesztergom6,
A.Sinha7
1
Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria
Space Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria,
3
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
4
Universiuty of L’Aquila, 67010 L’Aquila, Italy,
5
Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India
2
The proposed regional system could be related to:
FP7 THEME 9: SPACE
Activity: 9.1 Space-based applications at the service of European
society
Area 9.1.1: Pre-operational validation of GMES services and products
Work should focus on building on the existing achievements of GMES,
especially core service geo-information provision, and conduct esearch
exploring innovative new geoinformation derived products and
service lines, or upgrade existing service lines in the light of new
geo-information products.
FP7 THEME 6: ENVIRONMENT
Activity 6.4 Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable
development
Sub-Activity 6.4.1 Earth and ocean observation systems and
monitoring methods for the environment and sustainable
development
Area 6.4.1.1 Integration of European activities within GEO
ENV.2009.4.1.1.1 Contribution to observing systems for
seismogenic hazards
The overall objective of the proposed idea is to specify, design,
implement and validate a generic usage of information for production and
exchange of data products capable for risk prevention and risk event
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management. The project is focused on risks typical to seismic regions,
mainly earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, floods, etc. Main seismic
regions in Europe are Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey, FYR Macedonia,
Portugal, etc.
The concept is based on multipoint measurements of crucial parameters
on ground and in the high atmosphere. Physical parameters sensitive to
earthquakes, landslides, etc. are the geomagnetic field and its variations
(in ULF range), ELF and VLF electromagnetic field at the Earth surface
above the hypocenters, radon emanation, gravity waves, ionospheric
disturbances, etc. Most of them (magnetic field, radon, ionosphere
parameters) are regularly monitored. Magnetic field components are
usually measured with sampling frequency 1 sec, the ionospheric
parameters – every 15 min. Continuous Doppler shift sounding of the
ionosphere at the frequency of 3.59 MHz suitable for the analysis of
periods from ~10 sec to ~1 hour s and infrasound measurements of
pressure fluctuations with sampling frequency 25 Hz and operation range
of periods ~0.1 sec to ~30 min. Diurnal, seasonal and other trends of the
measured parameters are well studied. Dependencies on solar activity,
geomagnetic conditions are under active study, as well. The usual trends
in data are however easily eliminated, the local ones remains.
Unfortunately, the latter are of different quality and quantity.
Satellite measurements of parameters as ULF/ ELF/VLF electric fields,
gravity waves, ionospheric disturbances are necessary and complement
the ground-based ones. Only coordinated ground-based and satellite
measurements would assure reliable information for impending natural
events as earthquakes, landslides, etc.
Various methods of analysis are thus required. Applying statistical and
other non-linear approaches, preliminary conclusions can be drawn
about the local (unusual) changes of the parameters indicative for
specified natural disaster. Magnetic field and ionospheric data have been
used for earthquake prediction and warning. We select a set of such data
and demonstrate the ability and reliability of polarization, Detrended
Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and other analyses towards a capacity
building of such physical parameters for earthquake warning system.
The outcome of this analysis will ensure the communication of data
as well as their access and interoperability by the wider science
community. International co-operation with other experimental
sites/ observatories outside Europe (India) is thus envisaged.
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Further, a base for increased interoperability between regional seismic
monitoring systems in Europe, India, etc can be built being capable for a
natural risk management. This base is capable to request and ingest
raw input data, process the input data into products suitable for risk
prevention/crisis management, distribute the products within the network
- if required, exchange products with other data system operated by
different methods and/or organizations.
Geophysical Institute and Space Research Institute at the Bulgarian
Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Czech
Academy of Sciences, Prague, University of L’Aquila, Italy, and Indian
Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India, have long term experience in
geomagnetic, ionospheric, and electromagnetic measurements on
ground and in situ (satellite) and analysis of lithospheric, atmospheric
and ionospheric processes associated with hazardous earthquakes. We
have an experience and relevant facilities to work as a partner in future
projects toward such an European activity.
Dr Petko Nenovski, DSc
Geophysical Institute,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
Acad. G. Bonchev, str., 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria,
Email: pnenovski@geophys.bas.bg,
tel : +359 2 979 3339;
fax: +359 2 971 3005
Dr Dimitar Teodosiev, PhD
Space Research Institute,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
6 Moskovska, str., 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria,
Email: dteod@space.bas.bg,
tel : +359 2 979 3211;
fax: +359 2 981 3347
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