COORDINATED GROUND-BASED AND SPACE
OBSERVING SYSTEMS TOWARD NATURAL DISASTER
FORECASTING AND/OR MONITORING OF
MULTIHAZARD SEIMOGENIC RISKS
P. Nenovski1, D. Teodosiev2, F. Hruška3, J.Chum3, J. Laštovička3, U. Villante4, M.
Vellante4, K. Schwingenschuh5, M. Boudjada5, I. Cholakov1, V. Wesztergom6 ,
A.Sinha7
1 Geophysical
Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
2 Space Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria,
3 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
4 Universiuty of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy,
5 Space Research Institute, Graz, Ausrtria
6 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Sopron, Hungary
7 Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India
The proposed regional observing system could be related to:
FP7 THEME 9: SPACE
Activity: 9.1 Space-based applications at the service of European society
Area 9.1.1: Pre-operational validation of GMES services and products
Work should focus on building on the existing achievements of GMES, especially
core service geo-information provision, and conduct research exploring
innovative new geoinformation derived products and service lines, or upgrade
existing service lines in the light of new geo-information products.
FP7 THEME 6: ENVIRONMENT
Activity 6.4 Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development
Sub-Activity 6.4.1 Earth and ocean observation systems and monitoring methods
for the environment and sustainable development
Area 6.4.1.1 Integration of European activities within GEO
ENV.2009.4.1.1.1 Contribution to observing systems for seismogenic hazards
The regional measuring system is focused on risks typical
to seismic regions, mainly earthquakes, landslides,
tsunamis, floods, etc.
The overall objective is to specify, design, implement and
validate a generic usage of information for production and
exchange of data products capable for risk prevention and
risk event management.
Main seismic regions in Europe are Greece, Italy, Bulgaria,
Turkey, FYR Macedonia, Portugal, etc.
The concept of space observing systems toward natural
disaster forecasting and/or monitoring of seismogenic risks is
based on multipoint measurements of crucial parameters on
ground and in the high atmosphere and ionosphere.
Physical parameters sensitive to earthquakes, landslides, etc.
are: magnetic field components usually measured with
sampling frequency of 1 sec; ionospheric parameters – every
15 min; ionosphere disturbances from ~10 sec to ~1 hours
measured by Doppler shift sounding of the ionosphere at the
frequency of 3.59 MHz; and infrasound measurements of
pressure fluctuations with sampling frequency 25 Hz and
operation range of periods ~0.1 sec to ~30 min.
Actually, magnetic field measurements are conducted under
the South Europe Geomagnetic Measurement Array (SEGMA)
which includes Austria, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria and covers 4146 N LAT and 13-24 LONG.
The usual trends in data are easily eliminated, the local ones
remain. Unfortunately, the latter are of different quality and
quantity.
Various methods of data analysis are thus required.
Applying statistical and other non-linear approaches,
preliminary conclusions can be drawn about the relevance of
local (unusual) changes of the parameters indicative for
specified natural disaster.
Magnetic field and ionospheric data have been used and
testified for earthquake prediction and warning.
We selected a set of such data and demonstrated the ability
and reliability of common analyses of polarization, detrended
fluctuation analysis (DFA) and other ones to determine a
reliable set of physical parameters for earthquake warning
system.
A base for increased interoperability between regional seismic
monitoring systems in Europe, India, etc can be built being
capable for a natural risk management.
This base will be capable to request and ingest raw input
data, process the input data into products suitable for risk
prevention/crisis management, distribute the products within
the network - if required, exchange products with other data
system operated by different methods and/or organizations.
Geophysical Institute and Space Research Institute at the
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Institute of
Atmospheric Physics at the Czech Academy of Sciences,
Prague, University of L’Aquila, Italy, and Indian Institute of
Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India,
have long term experience in geomagnetic, ionospheric
and electromagnetic measurements on ground and in situ
(satellite-based) and data analysis of lithospheric,
atmospheric and ionospheric processes indicative for
impending earthquakes.
We have an experience and facilities to monitor magnetic
field and ionospheric variations and work as a partner in
future projects toward such an European activity.
Dr Petko Nenovski, DSc
Geophysical Institute,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
Acad. G. Bonchev, str., 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria,
Email: pnenovski@geophys.bas.bg,
Dr Dimitar Teodosiev, PhD
Space Research Institute,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
6 Moskovska, str., 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria,
Email: dteod@space.bas.bg,
Thank you for your attention