City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 29-Jul-2013 Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report Client: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council ABN: 38 393 903 860 Prepared by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd Level 9, 8 Exhibition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia T +61 3 9653 1234 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.aecom.com ABN 20 093 846 925 In association with Monash University Job No.: 60299326 AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to the latest version of ISO9001 and ISO14001. © AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM). All rights reserved. AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other party should rely on this document without the prior written consent of AECOM. AECOM undertakes no duty, nor accepts any responsibility, to any third party who may rely upon or use this document. 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AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Quality Information Document Urban Heat Island Report Ref 60299326 Date 29-Jul-2013 Prepared by Peter Steele Reviewed by Ben Smith Revision History Authorised Revision Date Details Revision 1 27-Jun-2013 Draft for review Revision 2 29-Jul-2013 Final Revision Name/Position Ben Smith Team Leader – Sustainability and Climate Change Ben Smith Team Leader Sustainability and Climate Change 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 Signature AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Table of Contents Urban Heat Island Report Executive Summary 1.0 Project context 2.0 What is the urban heat island (UHI)? 2.1 Urban heat island or urban heat? 2.2 Surface temperature versus air temperature 3.0 Urban heat risks 3.1 Overview of urban heat risks 3.2 Heat effects 3.2.1 City of Greater Geelong 3.2.2 City of Wyndham 3.3 Activities 3.3.1 City of Greater Geelong 3.3.2 Wyndham City Council 3.4 Vulnerability 3.4.1 City of Greater Geelong 3.4.2 City of Wyndham 3.5 Potential impact from climate change 3.5.1 City of Greater Geelong (Corangamite Region) 3.5.2 Wyndham City Council (Port Phillip and Westernport Region) 3.5.3 Potential impact of climate change on urban heat 4.0 Responding to UHI risks 4.1 Practical mitigation responses 4.2 Plan making 4.2.1 City of Greater Geelong 4.2.2 City of Wyndham 4.3 Operations / implementation 4.3.1 City of Greater Geelong 4.3.2 City of Wyndham 5.0 Limitations and next steps 5.1.1 Limitations 5.1.2 Further work 6.0 References Appendix A Appendix B 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 2 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 14 18 18 20 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 27 27 27 27 28 30 30 31 33 33 34 36 37 41 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 5 Executive Summary The Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and urban heat more broadly, has a range of potential impacts on health, infrastructure and resource consumption. This report, commissioned by the City of Greater Geelong (CoGG) and Wyndham City Council (WCC), explores the characteristics of urban heat for these two municipalities, utilising data collected using airborne thermal sensing equipment. The literature review undertaken for the project found a diverse range of academic research, government-oriented discussion papers and toolkits focused on urban heat. It highlighted that urban heat can present a range of social, economic and environmental risks and is likely to be further exacerbated by projected climate change. Relevant literature also provided analysis of the various mitigation measures that may be used to reduce the extent and impact of urban heat. Context is critical in considering urban heat and possible mitigation strategies. Our analysis of vulnerability to urban heat in the CoGG and WCC municipalities examined current and future urban form, delivery of core Council services, and the impact of policies and strategies. Broad scale analysis using the available thermal sensor data showed that both municipalities are affected by urban heat. Areas where a higher proportion of surfaces are covered by built form showed higher surface temperatures, and the impact of green spaces, irrigated grass and lighter coloured materials was also evident through lower surface temperature readings. The report also highlights the potential for urban heat to impact on a broad range of Council facilities and services, and that vulnerable segments of the community, including the elderly and disabled, may experience more severe impacts. To derive the greatest value from the innovative thermal data available to CoGG and WCC, and to better respond to urban heat risks, a range of potential responses have been identified for each municipality. The responses are necessarily high level, and will rely on further work and consideration by CoGG and WCC and consultation with relevant external stakeholders. Importantly, however, the responses recognise the importance of urban heat risks being considered across Council, and not being seen as an issue restricted to the Environment or Sustainability areas of local government. The priority actions for CoGG and WCC identified through this process include: - Plan making: identify short term opportunities for urban heat risks to be considered in new plans related to urban development, risk, health and wellbeing, capital works, and parks and open space. - Practical guidance: develop practical guidance for Council capital works and external developers, to inform urban design, landscaping and built form decision-making. - Lead by example: explore opportunities for a practical retrofit pilot to be undertaken on a Council-owned facility, utilising a combination of built form and landscaping approaches to demonstrate the potential for local urban heat impacts to be reduced. - Improve data: consider the initiation of a structured monitoring program, using more readily and cheaply available LANDSAT data, to further explore the characteristics of urban heat for each municipality and inform mitigation efforts. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 1.0 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 6 Project context City of Greater Geelong (CoGG) and Wyndham City Council (WCC) have jointly commissioned AECOM and Monash University to provide this executive report to assist in communicating the risks from urban heat island, and to set out the responses that are available in each of the local government areas (LGA’s) to mitigate these risks. The report is informed by a brief literature review, a review of climate change projections for Victoria and analysis of airborne thermal remote sensing that was undertaken independently for WCC and CoGG on 24 January 2012 and 6 February 2013 respectively. See Appendix B for an overview of the thermal data collected. The next steps for both councils in responding to this risk will be different. Given this, the report is structured to provide both councils with content that is specifically relevant for their LGA, and which can be used to inform further engagement, future work and strategy development. 2.0 What is the urban heat island (UHI)? Urban development replaces natural surfaces and vegetation with the dry, hard surfaces and structures of roads, footpaths and buildings. On sunny days, these surfaces accumulate and store solar heat energy. They are also impervious meaning that when it rains the water drains away rapidly leaving little moisture in the ground layer and consequently reducing evapotranspirative cooling. In addition to this, the height and form of high-density development can trap heat at night. The combination of these factors, as well as other sources of heat in the urban environment such as air conditioners and vehicle engines, often leads to warmer air temperatures in urban areas than in the surrounding rural areas. This is particularly noticeable at night, when heat that is stored in the urban landscape is slowly released, increasing the temperature differential between urban and rural areas. This is referred to as the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), which is generally considered the measure of this difference in air temperatures between urban and rural areas. Local and international studies have found that the UHI effect can add between 1°C to 6°C to ambient air temperature and is likely to be further exacerbated by climate change. 2.1 Urban heat island or urban heat? There is an important distinction to be noted between UHI and a broader concept of urban heat. UHI refers specifically to the difference between urban and rural temperatures, and is also often focused on night time temperature differences. Urban heat, however, is a broader concept referring to the heat impacts associated with urban environments. For the purposes of this study, UHI is less relevant than the identification, impact and response to urban heat. As a result, the focus of the report will not be on the difference between rural and urban temperatures, but the impact of, and response to, urban heat more broadly. 2.2 Surface temperature versus air temperature Discussion of urban heat can be usefully separated into air temperature and surface temperature. Air temperature urban heat is more commonly discussed, often in the context of urban areas having a higher air temperature at night when compared surrounding rural areas. Air temperature can be impacted by a range of factors, for example prevailing winds, proximity to the ocean and local meteorological conditions. Surface urban heat is a key contributor to air temperature, and can be addressed through a range of mitigation measures. Importantly for this study, the thermal imagery that is being analysed represents surface temperature as opposed to air temperature. As a result, any discussion of future impacts and possible mitigation strategies is related primarily to surface temperature. It should be noted that projections for temperature changes relating to climate change are based on air temperature. Figure 1 on the next page highlights this distinction as well as additional delineations that can be made in assessing urban heat. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 7 Figure 1: Surface and air temperatures vary over different land use areas. Surface temperatures vary more than air temperatures during the day, but they both are fairly similar at night. The dip and spike in surface temperatures over the pond show how water maintains a fairly constant temperature day and night, due to its high heat capacity (US EPA, http://www.epa.gov/heatisland/about/index.htm) 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 3.0 Urban heat risks 3.1 Overview of urban heat risks 8 Where and to what extent urban heat occurs is the result of a wide variety of interacting factors. These include building density, height, surface permeability, presence or absence of plants and trees, surface materials, surface colours and meteorological conditions. Localised impacts, particularly related to surface urban heat, are influenced by the specific characteristics of the surrounding urban environment. Potential impacts associated with urban heat include: -heat stress, leading to illness and mortality for humans and animals -increased water use (irrigation, evaporative air conditioning) -increased energy consumption (for air-conditioning or increased use of motorised transport) -infrastructure failure (transport, electricity distribution). Generally speaking, the risks are greatest when high activity areas with vulnerable populations are subject to extreme heat, as depicted in Figure 2 below. C Exposure of the population Heat B Vulnerability A B Activity B A = Highest priority C C B = Medium priority C = Moderate priority Figure 2: Diagram representing factors required to identify areas of high (A), medium (B) and moderate (C) priority for UGI implementation for surface temperature heat mitigation. The key factors are daytime surface temperatures (Heat) and areas of high activity (Activity), which combined indicate areas of high exposure. In addition, areas with high concentrations of vulnerable population groups (Vulnerability) should be identified (Norton et al 2013). 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 3.2 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 9 Heat effects The Western Melbourne region, which includes Wyndham City Council and City of Greater Geelong, has a diverse range of urban environments. These include large, low-density, single use residential growth areas, established residential suburbs, dense mixed use and commercial areas, and industrial precincts. The urban heat risks to each of these urban environments are different and locally specific, and influenced by a range of factors. Figure 3: Land surface temperatures observed from MODIS satellite imagery on 28-29 Jan 2009 for daytime (left) and night time (right) (Loughnan et al. 2010) Thermal imagery has been reviewed for this study. A number of specific heat effects and suggested approaches for mitigation, based on the thermal imagery are set out in the sections below. The thermal flyover for Geelong was undertaken on 6 February 2013 and for Wyndham on 24 January 2012. Limitations in respect of the thermal data are set out in 5.1.1 however the imagery provides a good way to better understand a range of risks and to begin to consider appropriate responses. 3.2.1 Table 1 City of Greater Geelong Urban heat risks and potential responses based on thermal imagery data collected on 6 February 2013 Street scene A comparison of two streets is presented below, one with trees (northern east-west street) and one without (southern east-west street). The cooling nature of the street trees is evident. However, these street are designed for different purposes: the open street is for traffic, while the street with trees is designed for parking and pedestrians. Location: 118-136 Little Malop St, Geelong 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 10 Car parks Unshaded car parks show high surface temperatures. Planting trees within the car park would be beneficial. This car park is close to the ocean, and there is likely to be sea breezes providing cooling effects despite the high surface temperatures. However, trees provide shading as well, which is important for improving human thermal comfort. Location: Deakin University car park 68-92 Cavendish St, Geelong Hot spots and mapping anomalies Data can be used to identify hotspots surrounding areas with populations that are vulnerable to heat such as schools. The asphalt car park is a hot-spot, as is the unirrigated grass area. The effect of irrigation can be seen in the area to the east of the shade sails. The very cold (blue) roof is an artefact of the data collection process and is due to the low emissivity. The surrounding wide roads could also be targeted for vegetation to reduce surface heating. Location: 275 Moorabool St, Geelong 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 11 The block below is particularly devoid of vegetation and has a very high level of imperviousness, and shows very high ground level surface temperatures. This would be classed as a ‘hot-spot’. Location: 31 Little Ryrie St, Geelong Public open space Public open space can be irrigated to provide a more thermally comfortable environment. The surface here (dark tan bark) actually serves to increase the surface temperature and surfaces are as hot as the surrounding asphalt roads. This park does provide tree shade however, which is beneficial for human thermal comfort. Location:160-166 McKillop St, Geelong Some of the hottest areas during the day are wide open streets where there is little shading from buildings or vegetation. High amounts of solar radiation reach the surface here, resulting in intense heating. Vegetation is most effective during the day in wide open streets where solar access is high. Location: 16 Sydney Ave, Geelong 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 12 Soil moisture The role of soil moisture can also be seen in this image. Along the river, and the depression on the west of the image, grass surface temperatures are lower as moisture drains to these areas. Location: La Trobe Terrace, Belmont Building shade The colour palette has been changed in this image to emphasise the effects of building shade on surface temperatures. Surface temperatures were some 25 degrees cooler when shaded. Of course, this shade will move throughout the day, but in designing streets for pedestrians and public space, solar access should be considered. Shading patterns in the thermal image are slightly different form the aerial image because of the different times of the day. Location: 4 Corio St, Geelong 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 13 Tree shade Again to emphasise the cooling effect the colour palette was changed. In the image below the tree canopy temperature is lower than surrounding urban materials because trees absorb and reflect solar energy, and also transpire. Plus, the shading effect of this large canopy tree can be seen. Large shade trees should be protected and promoted. Again, shade patterns will change throughout the day, so designing spaces should consider solar access and strategically place trees Location: 283 Ryrie St, Geelong In another example to emphasis tree effects: the tree canopy temperatures in the irrigated park appear cooler than in the adjacent park to the south-east. This could possibly be due to the different amounts of irrigation in the parks (it could also be a result of different tree species) Irrigation provides more moisture to the root zone for trees to draw on for photosynthesis and transpiration. Tree canopy temperatures did vary and this can also be a result of the micro-climate these trees are exposed to. Trees surrounded by urban surfaces must endure higher surface temperatures (from the ground and walls) and warmer, drier conditions. Providing soil moisture can help trees endure urban conditions. Location: 6 Bellerine St 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 3.2.2 Table 2 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 14 City of Wyndham Urban heat risks and potential responses based on thermal imagery data collected on 24 January 2012 Hot spots and mapping anomalies Some rooftops appear very cold such shopping complexes and some industrial areas. These surface temperatures are very difficult to interpret. While the light colour of the roof will reflect more solar radiation, these cold roofs are also an artefact of the data collection approach. Remote sensing does not account for the emissivity of the surface (emissivity is the ability of a surface to emit radiation). Materials like corrugated iron have low emissivity, and hence appear cold. It is very difficult to account for emissivity and these rooftops should be excluded from analysis. These roofs could be underestimated by anywhere between 20 and 40°C. Despite the apparent cool temperatures, this is a priority area because of high pedestrian activity. The buildings will provide some shading during the day, but more vegetation and water availability could improve the micro-climate here during the day. Location: 4 Main St, Point Cook Very dry, barren areas show surface temperatures that are high during the day, and a similar temperature to urban surfaces. One difference, however, is that these barren surfaces will actually cool rapidly at night, while the urban surfaces will remain warm. Dry, barren surfaces will hinder daytime thermal comfort. Vegetation and irrigation can mitigate this. Location: Boardwalk Boulevard, Point Cook 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 15 The light coloured roof in the image below is around 6°C cooler than surrounding rooftops. The high reflectivity of the roof would contribute to reduced atmospheric heating. It would also be likely to have building energy efficiency benefits. Products are available in the market such as ThermoShield which provide highly reflective ceramic paints that are designed to reflect across the entire shortwave spectrum. Paints are available in other colours, and represent a relatively inexpensive mitigation action with potential for widespread uptake. Location: 27 Peppertree Dr, Point Cook Soil moisture The effects of irrigation can be clearly seen. This irrigated oval (~32°) is around 12-13°C cooler than surrounding unirrigated ground cover (~45°C). Increasing soil moisture reduces surface temperatures during the day. It can slow surface cooling marginally at night, meaning these surfaces will still be cooler than urban surfaces. The overall effect of irrigation on surface temperature is a net benefit. Location: 19 Kingsley Ave, Point Cook In contrast with the irrigated oval, at Emmanuel College (above), these are synthetic turf basketball courts which show temperatures of 48-49°C. This space is designed for school children physical activity and would deliver a warmer and higher radiative environment than irrigated sports-fields. Location: 2-40 Foxwood Dr, Point Cook (overleaf) 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 16 Evapo-transpiration cooling The tops of these trees are much cooler during the day. They provide shading and transpirational cooling. As this image was taken at solar noon, shading effects of trees on surrounding surfaces can’t be seen. Location: 17 Wattle Grove, Point Cook Public open space Public space. In the hottest area of this public space is a playground. Public space should be designed to minimise exposure to extreme heat. Irrigated vegetation can provide a more comfortable thermal environment, as well as improve amenity. Location: 20 Sidney Nolan Walk, Point Cook 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 17 Water bodies Obviously, water bodies are much cooler during the day due to evaporation of water and a high thermal mass. This higher thermal mass means that at night, surface temperatures can be relatively warm, but surfaces may still be evaporating so providing cooling. Night time surface temperatures of water will still be cooler than urban surfaces on hot nights. Strategically placed water bodies, or water sensitive urban design measures that retain water in the landscape, can be used to provide local cooling. Location: 64 Scrubwren Dr, Williams Landing 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 3.3 Activities 3.3.1 City of Greater Geelong 18 Council facilities and services CoGG owns approximately 700 facilities across the municipality, varying from significant office buildings to parks to toilet blocks. A selection of CoGG facilities is shown in Figure 4 on the next page. When compared with the thermal data, shown in Appendix B, it can be seen that Council facilities are located in a range of urban environments and are likely to experience varying degrees of urban heat. While more detailed analysis is required to determine the relationship between CoGG facilities and localised urban heat, the analysis in Section 3.2 highlights the potential impact of a range of urban environments including streets, buildings, ovals and playgrounds. In addition to owning and managing physical assets, Council employees deliver a range of services that include community support and outreach, management of recreation facilities, waste management and administration of local laws. Urban heat poses a range of potential risks to CoGG that relate to both physical assets and service delivery. In addition, Council’s assets also have the potential to increase urban heat impacts. Potential risks include: - heat stress to Council employees required to work outdoors (e.g. maintenance staff at recreation facilities, community outreach workers) - increased operating costs for Council buildings due to increased electricity consumption for air conditioning - reduced amenity of Council-owned recreation facilities, such as playgrounds - increased demand for community support for vulnerable residents during periods of extreme heat (exacerbated by urban heat impacts). New urban development The population of CoGG is growing and to support this growth significant additional urban development will continue to occur. The number of private dwellings in the municipality is predicted to increase from approximately 101,000 in 2013 to 134,000 in 2031 (Forecast.id 2011b), and the majority of this increase will occur in growth areas such as Armstrong Creek. In many cases this growth will result in vegetated, non-urban environments being replaced by the hard surfaces and materials that are associated with urban heat impacts. Figure 4 on the following page shows the arrangement of existing land uses across the municipality, and highlights the Armstrong Creek growth area. CoGG has the capacity to influence the location and type of development that occurs through strategic and statutory planning tools. While there are limits to the requirements that Council can make of developers, there are a range of potential urban heat mitigation measures that can be pursued through this process to reduce the likelihood and impact of urban heat on future development. Potential urban heat risks posed to new urban growth include: - health and wellbeing impact on future residents, particularly vulnerable groups (e.g. elderly, disabled) - increase in living expenses due to increased reliance on air conditioning and private vehicle transport - increase in social isolation - increase in urban heat impacts on surrounding areas. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Figure 4 CoGG land uses, key growth area and selected Council facilities (ABS data composite including planning zones) 1 - Ocean Grove Library & Shopfront 2 - Geelong West Town Hall 3 - Bellarine Multi Arts Centre 4 - Bellarine Aquatic Sports Centre 5 - City Hall 6 - Civic Centre Car Park 7 - Queens Park Golf Club & Kiosk 8 - Corio Leisure Time Centre 9 - City works (Corio) 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 19 AECOM 3.3.2 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 20 Wyndham City Council Council facilities and services WCC owns approximately 800 facilities across the municipality, varying from significant office buildings to parks to small buildings such as toilet blocks. Around 150 of these facilities are buildings, and the municipality is also responsible for 40 significant parts and sporting reserves. In addition to owning and managing physical assets, Council employees deliver a range of services that include community support and outreach, management of recreation facilities, waste management and administration of local laws. Urban heat poses a range of potential risks to WCC that relate to both physical assets and service delivery. In addition to being impacted by urban heat, Council’s assets also have the potential to increase urban heat impacts. Potential risks include: - heat stress to Council employees required to work outdoors (e.g. maintenance staff at recreation facilities, community outreach workers) - increased operating costs for Council buildings due to increased electricity consumption for air conditioning - reduced amenity of Council-owned recreation facilities, such as playgrounds - increased demand for community support for vulnerable residents during periods of extreme heat (exacerbated by urban heat impacts). New urban development WCC is one of Victoria’s fastest growing local government areas, and to support this rapid growth significant additional urban development will continue to occur. The number of private dwellings in the municipality is predicted to increase from approximately 70,000 in 2013 to 124,000 in 2031 (Forecast.id 2011a), and the majority of this increase will occur in new growth areas such as Ballan Road and Westbrook. In many cases this growth will result in vegetated, non-urban environments being replaced by the hard surfaces and materials that are associated with urban heat impacts. Figure 5 on the following page identifies a number of significant growth areas in the municipality. These are areas where urban heat risks may increase as development occurs, however also represent opportunities to implement urban heat mitigation strategies. WCC has the capacity to influence the location and type of development that occurs through strategic and statutory planning tools. While there are limits to the requirements that Council can make of developers, there are a range of potential urban heat mitigation measures that can be pursued through this process to reduce the likelihood and impact of urban heat on future development. These are explored in Section 4.0 of this report. Potential urban heat risks posed to new urban growth include: - health and wellbeing impact on future residents, particularly vulnerable groups (e.g. elderly, disabled) - increase in living expenses due to increased reliance on air conditioning and private vehicle transport - increase in social isolation - increase in urban heat impacts on surrounding areas. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Figure 5 WCC land uses, key growth areas and selected Council facilities (ABS data composite including planning zones) 1 - Wyndham City Council 2 - Hoppers Crossing Youth Resource Centre 3 - Wyndham Leisure & Events Centre 4 - Wyndham Cultural Centre 5 - Point Cook Learning Centre 6 - Werribee South Caravan Park 7 - Chirnside Park 8 - Manor Lakes Community Learning Centre 9 - Saltwater Reserve 10 - Jamieson Way Community Centre 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 21 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 22 The effects of urban development on land surface temperature can be seen below in Figure 6. While it is important to recognise the numerous variables that influence the individual temperature readings of these images, the broad pattern of urban development over time, and the impact of this on surface temperature reading, is instructive when considering the influence of built form on urban heat. Figure 6 LANDSAT land surface temperature image (average of 7 images from 1999-2005: Nury et al. 2012) and right: LANDSAT image with Wyndham thermal flyover overlaid (30m resolution) for 2012. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 3.4 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 23 Vulnerability Research has identified the increased risk posed by urban heat to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those suffering chronic illness and disability (Loughnan et al 2013). Urban heat may also have a greater impact on low income households due to the potential impact on living costs. The ABS provides an indicator of socio-economic vulnerability called Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), which can be used to identify the geographic spread of socio-economic vulnerability. Urban heat can cause or exacerbate health impacts such as heat stress, resulting in illness or death, and can also compound issues of social isolation by reducing comfort levels in outdoor areas and meeting places. It may also result in increased living costs associated with air conditioning and transport. Resulting flow on effects can include increased demand for medical care and emergency services, resulting in resource strains for local government, hospitals and emergency services. Thermal data has the potential to be used to identify whether urban heat risks are likely to disproportionally affect vulnerable residents, and enable mitigation measures to be prioritised to these areas. Loughnan et al (2009) developed a method to identify broad spatial patterns of vulnerability to heat stress at the local government area level. This utilises a series of 5 indicators: - Large numbers of aged care facilities - Language other than English spoken at home - Elderly people living alone - Low density (suburban) areas - High proportion of very old or very young residents. While broad scale analysis of this nature is useful in identifying general patterns of vulnerability, Norton et al (2013) recognise the need for ‘finer grain’ analysis to enable specific, localised responses to be undertaken. A recently launched online mapping project based on this report, ‘Mapping Vulnerability Index1’, undertakes this at census collector district level for all Australian capital cities. This online resource, and the discussion found in the VCCCAR supported report ‘Decision principles for the selection and placement of green infrastructure to mitigate urban hotspots and heat waves’, could be utilised by CoGG and WCC to further explore the geographic spread of vulnerability, intersection of this with urban heat ‘hot spots’ and prioritise mitigation efforts in these area. The following sections introduce some of the broad indicators of vulnerability for CoGG and WCC. It was not within the scope of this report to undertake detailed, localised analysis of the intersection between vulnerability and urban heat impacts, however it is recommended that this is undertaken as CoGG and WCC plan and prioritise specific urban heat responses. 3.4.1 City of Greater Geelong The following indicators of vulnerability are taken from the CoGG Profile.id website (2013a). Age CoGG has an older population in comparison to Greater Melbourne. Residents in the older age range, such as 65 and over, are not distributed evenly throughout the municipality which may indicate areas with a higher proportion of older residents are more vulnerable. Disability Approximately 5.6% of the CoGG population requires assistance with day-to-day tasks due to disability. This population is not evenly distributed across the municipality, and a number of areas of high concentration of disability assistance are evident. Income and education 1 NCCARF, CRF for Water Sensitive Cities, Water for Liveability and Monash University (accessed 22.07.13), http://www.mappingvulnerabilityindex.com/ 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 24 CoGG has a SEIFA score of 993, placing it around the middle of the ranking of disadvantage across Victoria’s municipalities. Within the municipality, the SEIFA index notes the highest level of disadvantage in the following suburbs: - Norlane - Whittington - Corio - Thomson/Breakwater. Specific analysis of thermal data for these areas was not undertaken through this project, however all are located within parts of the municipality that experience urban heat effects. Further detailed analysis to understand the intersection between the most vulnerable parts of the community and the most severe urban heat impacts would enable localised mitigation to be prioritised. 3.4.2 City of Wyndham The following indicators of vulnerability are taken from the WCC Profile.id website (2013b). Age WCC has a younger population in comparison to Greater Melbourne, potentially reducing vulnerability to the health impacts of urban heat. Residents in the older age range, such as 65 and over, are not distributed evenly throughout the municipality which may indicate areas with a higher proportion of older residents are more vulnerable. Disability Approximately 3.4% of the WCC population requires assistance with day-to-day tasks due to disability. This population is not evenly distributed across the municipality, and a number of areas of high concentration of disability assistance are evident. Income and education WCC has a SEIFA score of 1,013, placing it around the middle of the ranking of disadvantage across Victoria’s municipalities. Within the municipality, the SEIFA index notes the highest level of disadvantage in the following suburbs: - Heathdale - Manorvale - Woodville - Mossfiel. Specific analysis of thermal data for these areas was not undertaken through this project, however all are located within parts of the municipality that experience urban heat effects. Further detailed analysis to understand the intersection between the most vulnerable parts of the community and the most severe urban heat impacts would enable localised mitigation to be prioritised. 3.5 Potential impact from climate change Climate change projections prepared by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) provide an indication of the likely effect of future climate change on temperatures, rainfall, extreme weather events and sea level. These projections are based on greenhouse gas emission models and scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007). While the extent of projected changes will vary between specific locations within the CoGG and WCC local government areas, the broad changes expected are largely consistent. The detail of localised impacts are highly uncertain and beyond the scope of this project to explore, and are also less relevant when considering urban heat impacts at a strategic level. The primary climate changes that will impact on urban heat are changes to temperatures, both average temperatures and number of extreme heat events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Key projected changes that could influence future urban heat are summarised below (DSE 2008a): 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 3.5.1 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 25 City of Greater Geelong (Corangamite Region) Temperature - Under a medium emissions scenario, annual average temperature is expected to be between 0.5 to 1.1ºC warmer in 2030. - By 2070, average annual temperature are expected to be between 0.8 to 1.8ºC warmer under a lower emissions scenario or between 1.6 to 3.5 ºC warmer under the high emissions scenario. - The number of days over 30ºC each year is expected to increase from 21 to 26 by 2030 and up to 40 by 2070. - The number of days over 35ºC each year is expected to increase from 4 to 6 by 2030 and up to 12 by 2070 under a high scenario. Rainfall - While conditions are expected to be drier, when it does rain, rainfall intensity is expected to increase. Under a high emissions scenario average annual rainfall could decrease by up to 12% by 2070. 3.5.2 Wyndham City Council (Port Phillip and Westernport Region) Temperature - Under a medium emissions scenario, annual average air temperature is expected to be between 0.6 to 1.1ºC warmer in 2030. - By 2070, average annual air temperature are expected to be between 0.9 to 1.9ºC warmer under a lower emissions scenario or between 1.8 to 3.7 ºC warmer under the high emissions scenario. - The number of days over 30ºC each year is expected to increase from 30 to 34 by 2030 and up to 49 by 2070. - The number of days over 35ºC each year is expected to increase from 9 to 11 by 2030 and up to 20 by 2070 under a high scenario. - The number of days over 40ºC each year could double by 2030 and increase to up to 5 days by 2070. Rainfall 3.5.3 While conditions are expected to be drier, when it does rain, rainfall intensity is expected to increase. Under a high emissions scenario average annual rainfall could decrease by up to 24% by 2070. Potential impact of climate change on urban heat Increases in temperature may increase the absorption and retention of heat by built surfaces. Changes to rainfall patterns may reduce vegetation cover and reduce the moisture content of ground surfaces, which can result in increased daytime surface heating. In a broad sense, it is likely that these projected changes will exacerbate the extent and impacts of urban heat already being observed. Discussed in section 3.0 above, this could result in impacts on health, infrastructure, essential service delivery and the economy. Table 3 Projected changes in number of extreme heat days in Melbourne (DSE 2008b) 2030 (medium emissions) Current 2070 (low emissions) 2070 (high emissions) Annual days over 30C 30 34 39 49 Annual days over 35C 9 11 14 20 Annual days over 40C 1 2 3 5 The table above summarises the potential increase in days of extreme heat for the Melbourne region, a particularly relevant indicator when considering urban heat impacts. It highlights the significant changes projected under current climate change scenarios. An increase in the frequency of extreme heat days is likely to result in an increase in hospital admissions, injuries and deaths due to heat stress, dehydration and sunburn, as well as 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council disruptions to transport and other essential infrastructure and services (DSE 2008b). If urban heat is not managed, these impacts could be significantly exacerbated. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 26 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 4.0 Responding to UHI risks 4.1 Practical mitigation responses 27 A range of measures have been identified in the review of relevant literature that have potential to reduce urban heat impacts. These are outlined in Table 4 below. The measures relevant to City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council will depend on the individual circumstances of the facility or urban area being considered, as well as the objectives of the mitigation effort. All of these practical mitigation measures need to be considered by councils in plan making and operations. Table 4 General urban heat mitigation opportunities (adapted from Coutts et al 2010). Mitigation measure Desired effect Increase vegetation Encourage evapo-transpirative cooling, shade built surfaces. Water sensitive urban design Retain water to increase evaporation, increase water availability for irrigation. Increased albedo Increase reflection of solar radiation, reducing heat storage. High thermal emittance surfaces (use of reflective coating for roof surfaces, allowing traditional colours to be maintained). Reduce heat storage in roof coverings. Outdoor landscaping Protect buildings from solar radiation using external vegetation. Use of deciduous species can allow protection in summer and access in winter. Street design Use street orientation and width to allow urban ventilation and balance urban heat impacts with passive thermal performance. Parkland and open space Use vegetated open space to provide local cooling, including for surrounding urban areas. Green roofs / walls Reduce heat transfer into buildings and encourage evapotranspiration. Evaporative air coolers Reduce the release of waste heat from reverse cycle air conditioning outside buildings (increased water consumption is a drawback). Building design Improve occupant comfort and reduce cooling requirements. Mass transport / active transport Reduce private vehicle use, resulting in less waste heat from exhaust. 4.2 Plan making The tables below highlight examples of council strategies and plans where there may be opportunities to make specific mention of urban heat risks and mitigation approaches, or where there are opportunities to improve what is already incorporated into existing plan documents. It should be noted that the examples included below represent a small sample of the opportunities that may exist to better incorporate urban heat considerations into Council plans and strategies, and a complete review of existing plans and strategies has not been completed as part of this study. 4.2.1 City of Greater Geelong Table 5 Key plans and strategies – City of Greater Geelong. Plan Current status and opportunity Precinct Structure Plans (PSP) The Armstrong Creek East Precinct and Town Centre PSPs were reviewed to understand current appreciation of urban heat in the context of future development. 26,207 of the 76,460 expected population growth to 2031 in CoGG is projected for the Armstrong Creek Growth Area. Ensuring PSPs for this area adequately consider urban heat risks, among other sustainability and liveability considerations, will make a significant impact. The PSPs reviewed made no specific reference to urban heat, however a range of provisions were identified that may support reduced urban heat impacts. These include 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Plan 28 Current status and opportunity objectives, guidelines and requirements related to: - shading streets and pedestrian spaces through verandahs and shade trees - minimising areas of unshaded car park - urban form and landscaping to provide shade around buildings. Future PSPs represent an important opportunity to consider how street design and orientation, water management and landscaping can support improved urban heat outcomes. High level strategic objectives, supported by more detailed provisions in design guidelines and infrastructure plans, could be altered to include consideration of urban heat. PSP Guidelines include a requirement for an energy statement. Urban heat is a consideration that should form part of this statement, given its potential to increase energy consumption 2009-2013 Geelong Health and Wellbeing Plan The current Geelong Health and Wellbeing Plan expires this year. This represents an important opportunity to bring the consideration of urban heat into the municipality’s strategic plan for community health and wellbeing. The current plan recognises the impact that urban design and open space networks can have on health and wellbeing, however does not recognise the potential risks of urban heat in this context. The revised plan could recognise the impact urban heat can have on physical and mental health, and recommend consideration of urban heat impacts in the context of service delivery, emergency management planning, new urban development and Council facilities. In particular, the plan could identify risks to vulnerable segments of the community, and put in place strategies to manage these risks. City of Greater Geelong Heatwave Management Plan The CoGG Heatwave Management Plan, developed in October 2009, sets out the systems and processes Council intends to put in place to reduce the impact of heatwaves on public health. The plan makes note of the factors contributing to health impacts of heatwaves, however makes no specific mention of the potential for heatwaves impacts to be exacerbated by urban heat. As has been outlined in this report, local temperatures can be significantly influenced by the built form and landscaping associated with urban environments. In the event of a heatwave, areas likely to experience higher temperatures due to urban form could be more vulnerable to public health impacts. A revised Heatwave Management Plan should recognise this elevated risk and include procedures to respond. Subject to further work and analysis, a heatwave vulnerability map could be developed that made note of both the most vulnerable populations as well as the urban areas most likely to experience elevated temperatures. 4.2.2 City of Wyndham Table 6 Key plans and strategies – City of Wyndham. Plan Current status and opportunity Precinct Structure Plans (PSP) Existing PSPs for Ballan Road and Manor Lakes were reviewed, to understand current recognition of urban heat impacts. While these plans make no specific reference to urban heat, they do include a range of provisions that have potential to support improved urban heat outcomes. These include objectives, guidelines and requirements related to: - encouraging canopy tree cover in streets, car parks and open spaces (e.g. Ballan Road PSP and Manor Lakes PSP) - integration of open space networks (e.g. Ballan Road PSP) - using recycled water to contribute to maintaining a green urban environment (e.g. Ballan Road PSP) - use of buildings and landscape treatments to provide shade (e.g. Manor Lakes). 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM Plan City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 29 Current status and opportunity Future PSPs represent an important opportunity to consider how street design and orientation, water management, landscaping, and material and colour selection can support improved urban heat outcomes. High level strategic objectives, supported by more detailed provisions in design guidelines and infrastructure plans, could be altered to include consideration of urban heat. PSP Guidelines include a requirement for an energy statement. Urban heat is a consideration that should form part of this statement, given its potential to increase energy consumption Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS) The MSS sets the broad strategic direction for planning across the municipality. It is currently under review, with a draft version out for comment. Key urban heat concepts and actions relevant to strategic and statutory planning could be included in the final draft of the MSS, providing a strategic basis for future planning decisions that consider urban heat impacts. Community Health and Wellbeing Plan The Community Health and Wellbeing Plan is due to expire at the end of 2013. The revised version of this plan has the opportunity to consideration to urban heat impacts on health and wellbeing. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and disabled, can be disproportionally affected by extreme heat, and urban heat impacts have the potential to exacerbate this. Recreational behaviours and exercise can also be impacted. As shown by analysis of surface temperature of public open spaces including ovals and play grounds design, material selection and landscaping can significantly influence surface temperatures of important public spaces. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 4.3 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 30 Operations / implementation In addition to being considered at a strategic level in plan making, councils also need to consider urban heat in their day to day operations, including maintenance and replacement activities (buildings and public open space), provision of guidance and statutory decision-making (planning) and in considering public health and emergency response policies and procedures. The following tables provide an indication of the potential relevance of urban heat to each council directorate for both CoGG and WCC. This is not intended to be exhaustive, but to provide an initial indication of the potential risks or responses that each directorate may consider in relation to urban heat. 4.3.1 City of Greater Geelong Table 7 Integrating urban heat into core function activities – City of Greater Geelong Directorate Core functions Urban heat relevance City services Engineering Environment and Natural Resources Infrastructure Operations and Waste Parks and support services Consideration of urban heat in specification and design of new infrastructure, maintenance of existing infrastructure. Community services Aged and Disability Services Arts and Culture Community Development Family Services Health and Local Laws Planning for urban heat impacts on vulnerable groups, including elderly and disabled members of the community. Potential to reduce passive street surveillance during extreme events and subsequently increase crime rates and anti-social behaviour. Corporate services Communication and Marketing Administration and Governance Corporate Strategy and Property Management Customer Services and Councillor Support Financial Services Information Services Organisation Development Produce property management guidance outlining urban heat responses City Development Planning Strategy and Economic Development Tourism Consider incorporating assessment of urban heat risks in new subdivisions and planning permit approvals processes. Economic development, planning and tourism Incorporate into future climate change adaptation work, including Barwon South West regional plan. Integrating urban heat mitigation into upcoming strategies, budgets, staffing, resourcing, link to updated risk register. Consider and plan for potential increased cooling costs due to a combination of climate change and rising energy prices, compounded by urban heat. Consider inclusion of specific reference to urban heat in future revisions of the Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS), new overlays and zone amendments. Encourage developers to include urban heat mitigation provisions in urban design guidelines of new estates (e.g. roof colour and landscaping). Produce planning and design guidance for new development, renewal projects and renovations. This to consider various scales including precinct/subdivision, block, street and individual building. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 31 Directorate Core functions Urban heat relevance Projects, recreation and central Geelong Capital Projects Events, Central Geelong and Waterfront Leisure Services Sport and Recreation Strategic Projects/Urban Design Consideration of urban heat in specification and design of new Council facilities including buildings, open spaces and sporting facilities. 4.3.2 Consider urban heat outcomes in street tree selection and maintenance, landscaping and maintenance of parks (including irrigation). City of Wyndham Table 8 Integrating urban heat into core function activities – City of Wyndham Directorate Core functions Urban heat relevance Sustainable Development Communications and Events Town Planning Environment and Sustainability Economic Development Strategic Planning Consider urban heat in development of future environment and climate change strategies, including adaptation planning. Consider inclusion of specific reference to urban heat in future revisions of the Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS), new overlays and zone amendments. Encourage developers to include urban heat mitigation provisions in urban design guidelines of new estates (e.g. roof colour and landscaping). Consider incorporating assessment of urban heat risks in new subdivisions and planning permit approvals processes. Produce planning and design guidance for new development, urban renewal projects and smaller buildings. This to consider various scales including precinct/subdivision, city block, street and individual building. Community Development Libraries and Community Learning Aged, Disability and Recovery Early Years and Youth Social Development Business Services Advocacy Corporate Services Planning for urban heat impacts on vulnerable groups, including elderly and disabled members of the community. Advocate for urban heat impacts to be incorporated into State Planning Policy Framework, to provide strategic support for local responses. Information Services City Governance Financial Services Risk and Compliance Organisational Development Increased urban heat impacts have the potential to reduce passive street surveillance during extreme events and subsequently increase crime rates and anti-social behaviour. Produce property management guidance outlining urban heat responses Integrating urban heat mitigation into upcoming strategies, budgets, staffing, resourcing, link to updated risk register. Infrastructure City Presentation and Recreation Buildings and Waste Major Projects Consideration of urban heat in specification and design of new Council facilities including 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM Directorate City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 32 Core functions Urban heat relevance Engineering Services Parks Assets Management and Maintenance buildings, open spaces and sporting facilities. Consider urban heat outcomes in street tree selection and maintenance, landscaping and maintenance of parks (including irrigation). 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 5.0 Limitations and next steps 5.1.1 Limitations 33 High resolution thermal mapping provides a great communication tool to convey the idea of urban heat. However, there are some limitations with high resolution thermal imagery that are of concern. Corrections: Thermal remote sensing actually involves the measurement of surface radiation, and using the inverse of Plank’s Law, is converted to a surface ‘brightness’ temperature. Data supplied by the provider here is essentially a raw data product that has only been radiometrically corrected. The data is not corrected for: Atmospheric effects: As radiation from the land surface passes through the atmosphere to the sensor, it is affected by absorption by the atmosphere. This is related to the transmittance and emittance of the atmosphere and varies with temperature and humidity. Given the low altitude, and the warm, dry conditions at the time of the flight, these effects are likely to be relatively small (Figure 7). Emissivity: Surface temperatures are influenced by the emissivity (the ability of a surface to emit radiation). Surfaces with a low emissivity appear cool when they may in fact be warm. This is especially evident for rooftops (e.g. corrugated iron) where emissivity is very low. Current procedures for dealing with emissivity correction for high resolution thermal imagery are inadequate, though is probably the largest source of error. Directional effects: The sensor actually ‘sees’ surface radiation from multiple directions and those temperatures from surfaces that are ‘off-nadir’ may appear cooler than those surfaces located directly perpendicular to the surface (e.g. viewing a thermal image of a wall, the apparent temperature of the wall may change at the edges of the image, when in fact the temperature is the same). Topographic changes can also be corrected for. The implication of this is that the actual surface temperature values observed by the sensor are not precise and can be several degrees out. Addressing these corrections increases the cost associated with capture and postprocessing. The thermal maps provide an idea of the relative differences in surface temperature rather than absolute temperature differences. Figure 7: Demonstration of the effects of different corrections applied (e.g. atmospheric and direction corrections listed above) for a transect across the city of Vancouver BC. Directional brightness is equivalent to the data provided to Geelong and Wyndham. These data are a coarser resolution, but demonstrate the uncertainty of not undertaking corrections (Voogt and Oke, 2003) Plan view only: The image only provides a bird’s-eye-view of the surface, and so does not capture the full 3D nature of the urban environment which influences urban micro-climates. Snapshot in time: Land surface temperatures at this high resolution are clearly highly variable spatially, but also temporally. Surface temperatures will change with different times of capture, different meteorological conditions, and changing surface conditions (e.g. soil moisture). This makes meaningful comparisons of images over time difficult. It is not really possible to establish a ‘baseline’ dataset of surface temperature. Surface-air temperature relationships: The key assumption in using thermal data for urban climate analysis is that air temperature patterns follow land surface temperature patterns. However, Tomlinson et al. (2011) states that “a significant research gap still exists which is the quantification of the relationship between measured air temperatures and remotely sensed LST data”. This is especially true at the micro-scale for high resolution thermal data. Wind speed and atmospheric stability influence correlations and they are poorer during the day when the 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 34 atmosphere is unstable and turbulence is higher. As an example, surface temperatures may be high next to the ocean, but air temperatures would be low due to sea breezes. Building energy efficiency: This thermal data cannot be used to identify poor performing buildings in terms of energy efficiency. The uncertainty with emissivity means that rooftop temperatures are not precise. Also, surface temperatures are just that: they do not give an indication of the insulating effects of buildings or their energy efficiency. Data quality: Quality data collection is essential. The data quality of these images appears very good. Flight need to be conducted progressively over the target area (e.g. East to West). Obviously, an issue for Geelong is the time taken for flights meant that the surface heated as the collection of data was undertaken. Taking N-S strips of data will make presentation and interpretation of data easier. This has been an issue in other thermal mapping exercises. A balance between resolution and flight time is needed. If smaller focus areas are identified for thermal mapping, this reduces the time – flights should probably aim to be less than one hour in duration. 5.1.2 Further work Thermal imagery: Identifying hot-spots in the landscape is good way to help prioritise investment in reducing urban temperatures. In deciding on future thermal mapping exercises, it is critical that the objectives of mapping are clear. If information is sought on a particular focus area for intervention (e.g. retro-fit), then high resolution thermal imagery may be useful for this purpose to identify hot streets, or to target unirrigated areas, etc. but, the limitations should be kept in mind. However, the imagery already collected provides information on the types of surfaces and urban arrangements/designs that cause high surface temperatures, which is not likely to change. In developing new areas and retrofitting existing areas, targeting areas with high solar access will help improve human thermal comfort. In summary, the benefits of high resolution thermal mapping are dependent on the objective of the mapping exercise. If mapping is to be undertaken again it should focus on target areas, consist of short duration flights, and should be corrected as best as possible. Mapping vulnerability: As noted earlier in the report, a heatwave vulnerability map could be developed that made note of both the most vulnerable populations as well as the urban areas most likely to experience elevated temperatures Satellite imagery: An alternative approach is the use of satellite imagery. A variety of products are available at different resolutions. LANDSAT has been used many times in studies of urban heat island. LANDSAT ETM+ data is available from 1999 onwards, and can provide 30m resolution. There are limitations with LANDSAT data (i.e. captured every 16 days, capture at 11am only, data from 2003 only 80% of scene available). An example of LANDSAT ETM+ data is provided in Figure 8 below. While limitations exist, benefits include standardised approaches for all the necessary corrections including atmospheric and emissivity corrections. The entire region is captured simultaneously, eliminating effects of flight time that were seen for Geelong. A new LANDSAT satellite has been launched and will become operational in 2013. This coarser data can still be used to identify hots-spots in combination with aerial photography, and may be easier to identify though this approach. The coarser scale probably means a better representation of air temperature variations too. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 35 Figure 8: Comparison of high resolution (0.5m) thermal mapping (left) versus 30m resolution of the same data (middle). LANDSAT satellite data provides a similar image to the scaled up version here. The LANDSAT image (right) is for 11am 25 Feb 2012. The ‘hotspots are in the same location as the high resolution thermal image, as are the cool spots. The white bands are the missing data. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM 6.0 City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 36 References Coutts, Andrew, Beringer, Jason and Tapper, Nigel(2010) 'Changing Urban Climate and CO2 Emissions: Implications for the Development of Policies for Sustainable Cities', Urban Policy and Research,, First published on: 06 January 2010 (iFirst) Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008a), Climate Change in Victoria, Victorian Government, Melbourne. Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008b), Climate Change in Port Phillip and Western Port, Victorian Government, Melbourne. Forecast.id (2013a), Wyndham City Council Population Forecasts, http://forecast2.id.com.au/Default.aspx?id=124&pg=5330, viewed 06/06/13. Forecast.id (2013b), City of Greater Geelong Population Forecasts, http://forecast2.id.com.au/Default.aspx?id=268&pg=5320, viewed 06/06/13. Loughnan, Margaret, Nicholls, Neville, & Tapper, Nigel. (2009). Hot spots project: A spatial vulnerability analysis of urban populations to extreme heat events. Retrieved 1 February 2013, from http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/2BE6722DD7C4874ACA257A360024E0DE/$FILE/heatwaves_hotspots_pr oject.pdf Loughnan, ME, Tapper, NJ, Phan, T, Lynch, K, McInnes, JA (2013), A spatial vulnerability analysis of urban populations during extreme heat events in Australian capital cities, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast pp.128. Norton, BA, Coutts, AM, Livelsley, SJ, Williams, NSG (2013) Decision principles for the selection and placement of green infrastructure to mitigate urban hotspots and heat waves. VCCCAR report. University of Melbourne and Monash University. http://www.vcccar.org.au/sites/default/files/publications/Urban%20Heat%20Island%20Decision%20principles%20 green%20infrastructure.pdf Nury, S, Coutts, A and Beringer, J (2012), The spatial relationships between vegetation, built area and land surface temperature distribution in the City West Water service area using satellite imagery, City West Water and Monash University, Melbourne Australia. Profile.id (2013a), City of Greater Geelong, http://profile.id.com.au/geelong, viewed 06/06/13. Profile.id (2013b), Wyndham City Council, http://profile.id.com.au/wyndham, viewed 06/06/13. Tomlinson, C. J., Chapman, L., Thornes, J. E. & Baker, C. 2011. Remote sensing land surface temperature for meteorology and climatology: a review. Meteorological Applications, 18, 296-306. Voogt, J. A. & Oke, T. R. 2003. Thermal remote sensing of urban climates. Remote Sensing of Environment, 86, 370-384. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council 37 Appendix A AECOM has not been commissioned to undertake a comprehensive literature review on urban heat. The documents that have been reviewed to preparing this executive report are outlined in Table 2. Table 9: Literature reviewed Title UHI focus and practical use Decision principles for the selection and placement of green infrastructure to mitigate urban hotspots and heat waves Urban heat mitigation opportunities (including impact of green infrastructure) Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies Heat Island Reduction Activities Provides a summary of the strategies, as distinct from individual measures, that can be used to reduce urban heat island. Largely aimed at government organisations, it summarises approaches such as demonstration projects, incentive programs, planning and building policies etc. Document type/citation Author Date Research paper Briony A. Norton, Andrew M. Coutts, Stephen J. Livesley and Nicholas S.G. Williams March 2013 Government report Climate Protection Partnership Division in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Atmospheric Programs ND See citation 2010 AECOM, for City of Melbourne 14 November 2012 Provides useful and pragmatic advice regarding the potential impact of different types of green infrastructure on urban heat, and the relevant considerations when planning for use of green infrastructure. The strategies contained in this, while discussed in a USA context, have potential for transfer to the CoGG and WCC contexts. Changing Urban Climate and CO2 Emissions: Implications for the Development of Policies for Sustainable Cities Provides a discussion of the importance of considering urban climates when planning for future, sustainable urban development. Particular focus is given to the potential duel benefits associated with some UHI mitigation measures, which are found to also have potential benefits in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the sustainability of water management. Journal article Economic Assessment of the Urban Heat Island Effect This report analyses the economic impact of current and future UHI effects on the City of Melbourne. It explores the Consultant report Coutts, Andrew, Beringer, Jason and Tapper, Nigel(2010) 'Changing Urban Climate and CO2 Emissions: Implications for the Development of Policies for Sustainable Cities', Urban Policy and Research,, First published on: 06 January 2010 (iFirst) 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM Title City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council UHI focus and practical use 38 Document type/citation Author Date See citation 2008 Sultana Nasrin Nury Dr. Andrew Coutts Prof. Jason Beringer June 2012 impact of UHI on extreme heat, and the impact of extreme heat on health, transport, energy demand, trees and animals and crime, and the costs associated with this. It provides a useful discussion of the economic costs that may be attributable to UHI for Melbourne’s CBD. It notes that mitigation efforts would be improved if a cost benefit analysis was undertaken for the range of available measures to reduce UHI. Urban form and climate change: Balancing adaptation and mitigation in the U.S. and Australia This article does not directly focus on UHI, but considers it in the context of future climates and the need for cities to effectively prepare for changed climates. It uses case studies to discuss the relationship between measures to mitigate climate change and measure to adapt to climate change. It finds that in some cases these measures are complementary, while in others they are potential conflicts. The summary of practical actions being taken at a local scale (largely in the US and Australia) provides a useful reference point for local governments. Journal article The spatial relationships between vegetation, built area and land surface temperature distribution in the City West Water service area using satellite imagery This technical paper focuses on the relationships between vegetation, built form and surface temperature. Research report Hamin E.M., & Gurran, N.,, Urban form and climate change: Balancing adaptation and mitigation in the U.S. and Australia, Habitat International (2008), doi:10.1016/j.habitat int.2008.10.005 It finds that, within the area studied which includes Wyndham, there is a strong relationship between both vegetation cover and built form, and surface temperature. Effectively, the more built up areas with lower vegetation cover generally showed higher surface temperatures. It concludes that increasing vegetation cover can be an appropriate measure to reduce surface temperatures, and that thermal mapping can be useful in identifying specific locations 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM Title City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council UHI focus and practical use Document type/citation Author Date Charlie J. Tomlinson, Lee Chapman, John E. Thornes and Christopher Baker 2011 for targeted intervention. Remote sensing land surface temperature for meteorology and climatology: a review This technical paper reviews a range of remotely sensed data sources in the context of land surface temperature. It focuses on thermal infrared sensing, for use in applications such as urban heat island measurements. It is a relatively technical paper, with potential value in decision making regarding the most appropriate data sources for future UHI measurement and monitoring. Journal article Adapting to Urban Heat: A Tool Kit for Local Governments This tool kit was prepared to guide American local governments in decision making regarding UHI mitigation. It presents a decision making framework to consider a series of outcome criteria and governance criteria for four UHI mitigation measures (cool roofs, green roofs, cool pavements, urban forestry). It provides a useful discussion of relevant decision making considerations for local governments, and while directed to an American context, has potential applicability for Australian local governments. Local Government tool kit Georgtown Climate Centre Sara P. Hoverter August 2012 Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Systems: Strategies for Planning Regimes This research focuses on the opportunities and tools available to planners to improve the ability of urban systems to respond to climate change through effective adaptation. While not specifically focused on UHI, some specific interventions discussed have UHI mitigation potential, and the use of planning policies and strategies more broadly is highly relevant when exploring opportunities for local governments to address UHI. Research paper Tony Matthews February 2011 Responding to the Urban Heat Island: A Review of the Potential of Green A review of international research in to the potential of green infrastructure to mitigate urban heat island impacts. It looks specifically at shade Literature review Annie Hunter Block, Stephen J. Livesley, Nicholas S.G. Williams 2012 Meteorological Applications Meteorol. Appl. 18: 296–306 (2011) Urban Research Program Research Paper 32 February 2011 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 39 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Title UHI focus and practical use Infrastructure trees, green roofs and green walls and facades. It concludes that these green infrastructure elements can have a positive impact on local surface and ambient temperatures, however their impact on the broader urban heat island at a city scale is less clear. It provides a useful summary of the characteristics and benefits of these three types of green infrastructure and discussion of their potential use in Australian climates. Document type/citation Author 40 Date VCCAR A multi-scale assessment of urban heating in Melbourne during an extreme heat event and policy approaches for adaptation This technical study focuses on examining airborne thermal imagery to explore the impact of surface types and urban arrangements on surface temperatures. Research report Andrew Coutts & Richard Harris School of Geography and Environmental Science Monash University November 2012 A spatial vulnerability analysis of urban populations during extreme heat events in Australian capital cities Final Report This paper presents the results and recommendations of the development and analysis of a tool exploring health vulnerability and urban heat. It found that key vulnerability indicators for heat-related health impacts in urban areas included demographic features such as older populations, disabled residents, ethnicity and cultural diversity. It concluded that a range of mitigation opportunities were available, and that due in part of projected future climate change, without mitigation heat related illness and death are likely to rise. Research paper Dr Margaret E Loughnan Professor Nigel J Tapper Dr Thu Phan Kellie Lynch Judith A McInnes 2013 Loughnan, ME, Tapper, NJ, Phan, T, Lynch, K, McInnes, JA 2013, A spatial vulnerability analysis of urban populations during extreme heat events in Australian capital cities, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast pp.128. 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Appendix B Figure 9 CoGG thermal data 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 41 AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Figure 10 WCC thermal data 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 42 AECOM AECOM City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council Urban Heat Island Report: City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council AECOM Australia Pty Ltd Level 9 8 Exhibition Street Melbourne VIC 3000 Australia T +61 3 9653 1234 1 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.aecom.com ABN 20 093 846 925 29-Jul-2013 Prepared for – City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham City Council – ABN: 38 393 903 860 1