ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine April 15, 2005 ChangeWave Research Report: Cosmetic Medicine Cosmetic Procedures Market Still Skyrocketing Overview This report presents the latest ChangeWave Alliance survey on Cosmetic Medicine. Our previous survey (May 2004) showed escalating interest in cosmetic procedures and a growing perception that they are becoming routine. To follow-up, we went back to our healthcare members to examine how the healthcare industry and patients are dealing with cosmetic surgery issues – including those procedures that have the most momentum. The survey was completed March 21, 2005, and a total of 116 Alliance members participated, including 58 doctors. Key Findings: Surging Interest in Cosmetic Procedures. More than a third of responding doctors (38%) report a “Significant Increase” in patient inquiries/requests for cosmetic procedures over the past 12 months – a 14-point surge since our May 2004 survey. Another 38% say they have seen a “Small Increase.” Cosmetic Procedure Growth Rates. More than two-thirds of doctor respondents (69%) say the growth rate for cosmetic procedures is faster than the average growth rate for medical services generally, 14-points more than our May 2004 survey. Consumers Increasingly Considering Cosmetic Procedures at Younger Ages. Fifty-six percent (56%) of responding doctors say the average age of patients making inquiries or requests about cosmetic procedures has decreased over the past year, compared with 41% in May 2004. More Patients are Viewing Cosmetic Procedures as Routine. Nearly nine-in-ten doctors (89%) report that patients in their work locales increasingly view cosmetic procedures as something routine, compared with 82% previously. Procedures With Most Momentum – Last 12 Months. Doctors chose Botox Procedures (Net Difference Score = +64) and Gastric Surgical Procedures to Limit Eating (+39) as the cosmetic procedures that have increased most over the past 12 months, followed by ‘Surgical Procedures to Treat the Face’ (+35) and ‘Collagen and other Dermal Filler Procedures to Treat the Face’ (+26). Dysport Sticking it to Botox? Better than one-in-four doctors (28%) see Dysport – if approved – capturing more than 25% of the Botox market in the first year it becomes available. This is an 8-point increase over our May 2004 survey results. Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine The Isolagen Process. If approved, one-third of responding doctors (34%) believe that between 1 and 10% of patients that currently use Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to Isolagen. ChangeWave Research Director Michael Shulman finds the projected market acceptance rate to be higher than current company estimates. Hyaluronic Acid-Based Dermal Fillers. The survey results also suggest that Hyaluronic Acid (HA) based dermal fillers could eventually be a competitive product. A third of doctors (34%) believe that more than 20% of patients currently using Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments will migrate to HA when it becomes available. Bottom Line: The survey results show a continuing surge in patient interest and in the overall growth rates for cosmetic procedures. Moreover, consumers are increasingly considering cosmetic procedures at younger ages and viewing it as something routine. Botox and Gastric Surgery are the cosmetic procedures that appear to have increased most over the past 12 months. Dysport looks to be a serious competitor to Botox once it becomes available. Hyaluronic Acid Based dermal fillers also could eventually become a competitive product. Isolagen, if approved, looks to capture only a small percentage of the current Botox market, but the Alliance findings suggest its market acceptance rate could be higher than the Street currently estimates. The ChangeWave Alliance is a group of 5,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries—credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports. Helping You Profit From A Rapidly Changing World ™ www.ChangeWave.com Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 2 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine Table of Contents Summary of Key Findings ............................................................................................ 4 The Findings .................................................................................................................. 5 ChangeWave Research Methodology ....................................................................... 13 About ChangeWave Research ................................................................................... 14 Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 3 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine I. Summary of Key Findings Cosmetic Procedure Procedures with Market Skyrocketing Most Momentum – Last 12 Months 38% of doctors see a “Significant Increase” in patient inquiries for cosmetic procedures over past 12 months – a 14point surge since May ’04 Another 38% see a “Small Increase” Cosmetic Procedure Growth Rates 69% of doctors say the growth rate for cosmetic procedures is faster than the average growth rate for medical services generally 56% say the average age of patients making cosmetic procedure inquiries has decreased over the past year – a 15-pt increase since May Botox Procedures (+64) Gastric Surgical Procedures to Limit Eating (+39) Surgical Procedures to Treat Face (+35) Collagen and other Dermal Filler Procedures to Treat Face (+26) Least Momentum Varicose Vein Procedures (+4) Bottom Line: Continuing Surge in Cosmetic Procedures The survey results show a continuing surge in patient interest and in the overall growth rates for cosmetic procedures. Moreover, consumers are increasingly considering cosmetic procedures at younger ages and viewing it as something routine. Botox and Gastric Surgery are the procedures that appear to have increased most over the past 12 months. Dysport looks to be a serious competitor to Botox once available. Hyaluronic Acid Based dermal fillers may also eventually become a competitive product. Introduction This report presents the latest ChangeWave Alliance survey on Cosmetic Medicine. Our previous survey (May 2004) showed escalating interest in cosmetic procedures and a growing perception that they are becoming routine. To follow-up, we went back to our healthcare members to examine how the healthcare industry and patients are dealing with cosmetic surgery issues – including those procedures that have the most momentum. The survey was completed March 21, 2005, and a total of 116 Alliance members participated, including 58 doctors. Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 4 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine II. The Findings Total Respondents (n = 116) Doctor Respondents (n = 58) All Other Respondents (n = 58) (1) Question Asked: Based upon what you are seeing in your work locale, has there been an increase, decrease, or no change over the past 12 months in patient inquiries or requests for cosmetic procedures? A Significant Increase Over Past 12 Months (10% or More) A Small Increase Over Past 12 Months (Less Than 10%) No Change Over Past 12 Months* A Decrease Over Past 12 Months Don't Know Other Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 38% 38% 22% 0% 2% 0% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 24% 51% 20% 0% 4% 0% *Note that in the previous May 2004 survey this choice was “No Increase Over Past 12 Months”, whereas in the current survey it is “No Change Over Past 12 Months”. Surging Interest in Cosmetic Procedures. More than a third of responding doctors (38%) report a “Significant Increase” in patient inquiries/requests for cosmetic procedures over the past 12 months – a 14-point surge since our May 2004 survey. Another 38% say they have seen a “Small Increase.” (1A) Question Asked: Year over year consumption of medical services in general is increasing by double digits. How would you characterize the growth rate for cosmetic procedures? Growth rate for cosmetic procedures is faster than the average growth rate for medical services generally Growth rate for cosmetic procedures is similar to the average growth rate for medical services generally Growth rate for cosmetic procedures is slower than the average growth rate for medical services generally Don't Know Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 69% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 55% 22% 37% 7% 2% 2% 6% Cosmetic Procedure Growth Rates. More than two-thirds of doctor respondents (69%) say the growth rate for cosmetic procedures is faster than the average growth rate for medical services generally, 14-points more than our May 2004 survey. Another 7% say the growth rate for cosmetic procedures is slower, and 22% say the rates are similar. Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 5 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine (2) Question Asked: Which of the following statements best reflects what you have personally observed in your work locale over the past year? (a) Patient Age The average age of patients making inquiries or requests about cosmetic procedures is increasing The average age of patients making inquiries or requests about cosmetic procedures is decreasing The average age of patients making inquiries or requests about cosmetic procedures has not changed Don't Know Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 27% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 27% 56% 41% 16% 24% 2% 8% Consumers Increasingly Considering Cosmetic Procedures at Younger Ages. Fiftysix percent (56%) of responding doctors say the average age of patients making inquiries or requests about cosmetic procedures has decreased over the past year, compared with 41% in May 2004. (b) Patient Attitudes Patients are increasingly viewing cosmetic procedures as something routine Patients are increasingly becoming more reluctant to undergo cosmetic procedures Patients attitudes have not changed about the use of cosmetic procedures Don't Know Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 89% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 82% 0% 2% 7% 12% 4% 4% More Patients are Viewing Cosmetic Procedures as Routine. Nearly nine-in-ten doctors (89%) report that patients in their work locales increasingly view cosmetic procedures as something routine, compared with 82% previously. Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 6 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine (3A) Question Asked: Based upon the number of patient requests or inquiries you are seeing in your work locale, which of the following cosmetic procedures would you say have increased the most over the past 12 months? (Check All That Apply) Botox Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area* Gastric Surgical Procedures to Limit Eating** Collagen and other Dermal Filler procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area Surgical Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area*** Liposuction Procedures to Reduce Body Fat**** Hair Removal Procedures Breast Cosmetic Surgical Procedures***** Varicose Vein Procedures****** Procedures to Eliminate Scars/Tattoos/Blemishes None of the Above Don't Know Other Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 71% 53% 40% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 67% 39% NA 40% 36% 31% 31% 28% 26% 0% 3% 7% 47% 41% NA 33% 39% 37% NA 6% 4% (3B) Question Asked: And which cosmetic procedures would you say have increased the least over the past 12 months? (Check All That Apply) Varicose Vein Procedures****** Liposuction Procedures to Reduce Body Fat**** Procedures to Eliminate Scars/Tattoos/Blemishes Hair Removal Procedures Collagen and other Dermal Filler procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area Gastric Surgical Procedures to Limit Eating** Breast Cosmetic Surgical Procedures***** Botox Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area* Surgical Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area*** None of the Above Don't Know Other Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 24% 19% 19% 17% 14% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 24% 22% 20% NA NA 14% 14% 7% 5% 2% 26% 2% 27% 22% 10% 8% NA 20% 0% * In the previous survey, the response was “Procedures to treat aging of the face/facial area through injections/implants.” ** In the previous survey, the response was “Procedures to limit the ability of the body to eat (e.g. gastric bypass). “ *** In the previous survey, the response was “Procedures to treat aging of the face/facial area through surgery.” **** In the previous survey, the response was “Procedures to reduce body fat (i.e. liposuction). “ ***** In the previous survey, the response was “Procedures to increase breast size.” ****** In the previous survey, the response was “Procedures to eliminate/reduce varicose veins. “ Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 7 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine Net Difference Score – Doctors Botox Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area Gastric Surgical Procedures to Limit Eating Surgical Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area Collagen and other Dermal Filler Procedures to Treat the Face/Facial Area Liposuction Procedures to Reduce Body Fat Breast Cosmetic Surgical Procedures Hair Removal Procedures Procedures to Eliminate Scars/Tattoos/Blemishes Varicose Vein Procedures Increased the Most 71% 53% 40% 40% Increased the Least 7% 14% 5% 14% 36% 31% 31% 26% 28% 19% 14% 17% 19% 24% Net Difference +64 +39 +35 +26 +17 +17 +14 +7 +4 Procedures With Most Momentum – Last 12 Months. Doctors chose Botox Procedures (Net Difference Score = +64) and Gastric Surgical Procedures to Limit Eating (+39) as the cosmetic procedures that have increased most over the past 12 months, followed by Surgical Procedures to Treat the Face (+35) and Collagen and other Dermal Filler Procedures to Treat the Face (+26). (4) Question Asked: Historically, insurers/payors have not reimbursed for cosmetic procedures other than those directly related to a patient's health (e.g., gastric bypass) or to correct a major disfigurement (e.g., repair of cleft palate). Are insurers/payors exhibiting an increased willingness or a decreased willingness to pay for cosmetic procedures? Insurers/payors exhibit an increased willingness to pay for what was previously considered elective cosmetic procedures Insurers/payors exhibit a decreased willingness to pay for what was previously considered elective cosmetic procedures No change in insurer/payor willingness to pay for what was previously considered elective cosmetic procedures Don't Know Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 7% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 2% 19% 22% 71% 67% 3% 8% Slight Increase in Cosmetic Procedure Reimbursement. Seven percent (7%) of doctors now say Insurers/payors exhibit an increased willingness to pay for elective cosmetic procedures compared to 2% in May 2004. Also, fewer doctors in the current survey report seeing a decreased willingness to pay for these procedures than in May (19% currently vs. 22% previously). Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 8 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine (5) Question Asked: A Botox competitor called Dysport, manufactured by Inamed, is currently in trial. Dysport requires fewer injections for the same results as Botox. If approved, what percent of the Botox market do you think it would command in its first year on the market? 0-5% 5-10% 11-25% 26-50% Over 50% Don't Know Doctors Current Survey Mar ‘05 3% 19% 17% 21% 7% 33% Doctors Previous Survey May ‘04 2% 12% 35% 10% 10% 31% Dysport Sticking it to Botox? Better than one-in-four doctors (28%) see Dysport – if approved – capturing more than 25% of the Botox market in the first year it becomes available. This is an 8-point increase over our May 2004 survey results. (6) Question Asked: Which of the following vendors do you think will gain the most traction in the marketplace over the next 12 months and why? (n = 15) Candela Laserscope Syneron Palomar Medical Cutera 47% 33% 13% 13% 0% Candela (47%) is the top choice of respondents for vendors likely to gain the most traction in the marketplace over the next 12 months, followed by Laserscope (33%). Sample of Alliance Member Responses: (a) Candela Doctor DRM7263 writes, "Candela. Strong market presence & state-of-the-art technology." JOH9038 writes, "Candela. Largest player in cosmetic lasers. Margins tight and others may not survive." Doctor GUT8640 writes, “Candela and Laserscope have a very good marketing plan.” Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 9 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine (b) Laserscope Doctor DRJ5952 writes, "Laserscope innovative technology." Doctor STE3218 writes, "Laserscope, very aggressive sales staff." HHA9729 writes, “Laserscope.” (c) Palomar Medical Doctor HER4689 writes, "Palomar. New products." BJA2582 writes, “Palomar - Breadth of offerings.” (d) Syneron Doctor MIN9289 writes, "Syneron-non-invasive, few side effects." (7) Question Asked: Are you familiar with the company Isolagen or the Isolagen process? Yes No Doctors 21% 79% (7A) Question Asked: Isolagen has pioneered a process, available in England, that extracts fibroblast cells from a patient and manufactures large quantities of them. The duplicated cells are then re-injected into the patient. The treatment could last up to a year and could cost between $7,000 and $10,000. The Isolagen process is currently awaiting FDA approval in the US. Do you see a market for this cosmetic procedure? Yes, 1-5% of patients currently using Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to Isolagen Yes, 6-10% of patients currently using Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to Isolagen Yes, 11%-20% of patients currently using Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to Isolagen More than 20% of patients currently using Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to Isolagen Do not see a market for the Isolagen process Don't Know Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. Doctors 24% 10% 9% 0% 10% 47% 10 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine The Isolagen Process. If approved, one-third of responding doctors (34%) believe that between 1 and 10% of patients that currently use Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to Isolagen. We note that ChangeWave Research Director Michael Shulman finds “this projected market acceptance rate is much higher than company estimates.” (8) Question Asked: Several companies are working on HA (Hyaluronic Acid) based dermal fillers and will eventually market them as a "natural alternative" to animal based collagen fillers. If competitively priced (within 10% of current dermal fillers) do you see a market for this product? Yes, 1-5% of patients currently using dermal fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to HA (Hyaluronic Acid) based dermal fillers Yes, 6-10% of patients currently using dermal fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to HA (Hyaluronic Acid) based dermal fillers Yes, 11%-20% of patients currently using dermal fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to HA (Hyaluronic Acid) based dermal fillers More than 20% of patients currently using dermal fillers/Botox treatments would migrate to HA (Hyaluronic Acid) based dermal fillers Do not see a market for HA (Hyaluronic Acid) based dermal fillers Don't Know Doctors 7% 14% 16% 34% 2% 28% Hyaluronic Acid-Based Dermal Fillers. The survey results also suggest that Hyaluronic Acid (HA) based dermal fillers could eventually be a competitive product. A third of doctors (34%) believe that more than 20% of patients currently using Dermal Fillers/Botox treatments will migrate to HA when it becomes available. (9) Question Asked: What would you say is the hottest new cosmetic procedure that has not yet generated much discussion in the general media? Doctor 8486810 writes, “Botox is still the hottie.” Doctor DRJ5952 writes, “Dermal fillers for wrinkles.” CRA1451 writes, “Men, men, men. Implants, chin tucks, eyes, etc.” Doctor GUT8640 writes, “Mesotherapy.” Doctor KJA2163 writes, “Mesotherapy for the reduction of fat and cellulite.” Doctor MTA6607 writes, “Gastric banding; Gastric bypass.” Doctor 799519 writes, “Laparoscopic gastric bending is more and more replaced by laparoscopic gastric sleeve operation that costs less, requires no adaptation afterwards, and less complications. Laparoscopic gastric bypass for severe obesity is still rising in favor of open ga.” Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 11 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine WPB8388 writes, “Neurostimulators that replace gastric by-pass.” Doctor MIM3324 writes, “Laser therapy of all types especially for hair removal.” Doctor FER6743 writes, “Neither hot nor new but micro-dermabrasion seems to me capable of increasing use.” Doctor SKR3776 writes, “Dermabrasion.” Doctor RAV1272 writes, “Non Ablative Laser Resurfacing (Fraxel).” Doctor WLU8236 writes, “Spray-on tanning - micro-powered devices for delivery of skin care products.” Doctor DON7620 writes, “Breast reduction surgery.” AGI1147 writes, “Cosmetic acupuncture. Not much potential for huge new product sales, but the procedures are becoming increasingly common. The risks are much lower than other cosmetic procedures, so many patients may start here rather than more aggressive treatment.” Doctor HER4689 writes, “Non-surgical face lifts.” WIL6687 writes, “LED Lights for acne and other facial blemishes and fine lines.” Doctor ELB6765 writes, “I don't think any haven't reached the media.” Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 12 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine III. ChangeWave Research Methodology This report presents the findings of the latest ChangeWave Alliance survey on Cosmetic Medicine. The survey was conducted between March 16 - March 21, 2005. A total of 116 Alliance members participated, including 58 doctors. The Alliance’s proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system is based upon the systematic gathering of valuable business and investment information directly over the Internet from accredited members. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, interprets and reconciles the information in a cohesive manner and converts the information into valuable quantitative and qualitative reports. The Alliance has assembled its membership team from senior technology and business executives in leading companies of select industries. Nearly 3 out of every 5 members (58%) have advanced degrees (e.g., Master’s or Ph.D.) and 94% have at least a fouryear bachelor’s degree. The business and investment intelligence provided by the Alliance provides a real-time view of companies, technologies and business trends in key market sectors, along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources. Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 13 ChangeWave Research: Cosmetic Medicine IV. About ChangeWave Research ChangeWave Research, a subsidiary of Phillips Investment Resources, LLC, identifies and quantifies "change" in industries and companies through surveying a network of thousands of business executives and professionals working in more than 20 industries. ChangeWave has a very unique asset in its 5,000-member Alliance. We have assembled our membership team from a broad cross section of more than 20 vertical markets such as telecom, semiconductors, data storage, and biotechnology, along with a wide range of professional disciplines including CIOs, IT managers and programmers, executive management, scientists, engineers and sales personnel. The ChangeWave Alliance is composed of senior technology and business executives in leading companies - credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. This proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system provides a real-time view of companies, technologies and business trends in key market sectors along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy - well in advance of other available sources. ChangeWave surveys its 5,000 Alliance members on a wide range of investment research topics and converts the findings into valuable investment and business intelligence reports. ChangeWave delivers its products and services on the Web at www.ChangeWave.com. ChangeWave Research does not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this report. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report. For More Information: ChangeWave Research 9420 Key West Avenue Rockville, MD 20850 USA Telephone: 301-279-4200 Fax: 301-610-5206 www.ChangeWave.com service@changewave.com Helping You Profit From A Rapidly Changing World ™ www.ChangeWave.com Copyright ©2005 ChangeWave Research All rights reserved. 14