Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 Incremental Political Reform and Transition toward Democracy He Zengke Executive Director, Prof. & Dr. China Center for Comparative Politics & Economics Abstract: Just like the economic reform, Chinese political reform is also a kind of incremental reform. China is in the period of political transition through political reform from totalism to authoritarianism and finally to democratic political system. Study on reform politics is very needed in this period. Reform politics should put its focus on the following grand issues: strategies and tactics of political reform, its motivation mechanism, historical periods and its future. This article will explore these issues. Key words: reform politics, mixed democracy, incremental political reform, dual track political system. There are two ways to realize political development, one way is political reform, and another way is political reform. Since reform and open up to the outside world, Chinese democratic political development has move forward along the way of incremental political reform and had made significant achievements. After more than 20 years of incremental political reform, Chinese political system has transformed from highly centralized and overall controlled totalism① to post totalism political system. This kind of post totalism political system is a kind of mixed political system, which combined both the characters of authoritarianism and democratic system, and Prof. Tang Tsou, Department of Political Science in Chicago University, put forward the argument that 20 th century Chinese Politics is belong to ‘totalism’ when he gave a speech in the ceremony of accepting an invitation to be the honorary professor of Peking University. He said that the concept of totalism is different from the term of ‘totalitarianism’ that adopted by some theorists in 1930s China or in current Western circles. It refers to a kind of guiding thought, that is, the power of political institutions could invade and control every stratum and every sector at any time and without any constraints. ‘Totalism Politics’ is a kind of political society based on this kind of guiding thought. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 thus is called neo-authoritarianism political system.① Owing to it, study on transition politics or reform politics become very urgent. Reform politics should focus on the ideal model and goals of political reform, its path, motivation mechanism, historical evolution and its future. Ⅰ.The Ideal Model of Chinese Political Reform: Mixed Democracy Regarding the concrete model of Chinese political reform, some scholars have thought them in depth and put forward a lot of ideal models which are very insightful. One model is the political system under the rule of law with consultations. Pan Wei pointed out that, ‘there are two choices for the direction of political reform, one choice is democratization, and another one is the rule of law. There are no countries that could realize these two goals at the same time; they can only be achieved in different sequences. Though democracy could be compatible with the rule of law, the two processes of democratization and the rule of law never took place together, since they can not be compatible due to the different direction of operations. …… Political reform around the direction of the rule of law and modern civil servants system adapt to Chinese characters better.’②He cries up heavily Hong Kong and Singapore’s model of political system which are belongs to the Chinese society, and he named this model as ‘the political system of the rule of law without democracy’. He thought that future direction of Chinese political reform is to establish a political system of rule of law combined with consultation, which should include five pillars of institutional arrangements: the neutral civil servants system, independent judicial system, independent anti-corruption institutions, far-ranging social consultation system encircling national and provincial People’s Congresses, the freedoms of speech, press, assembly and associations protected fully by the laws. He summed up five features of this model as following: 1) Emphasis the rule of law and deny the rule of people; 2) Emphasis the fairness of the laws, and thus appreciate especially the principle of ‘every one is equal before the laws’ ; 3) Emphasis the significance of enforcing laws strictly, make it difficult to pass a law consciously; 4) Emphasis to confine the scope and functions of government, to build the limited government, to safeguard the liberty of social and economic life, and thus to encourage the creativity of the whole nation; 5) Emphasis to pursuit the order and liberty that suit the Chinese traditions. ③ Second one is the model of cooperation state. Kang Xiaoguang brought forward the idea of building co-operation state model. He pointed out that, the basic formula of cooperation state is: authoritarianism politics + liberal market economy + corporatism + welfare state. As a kind of modern power-sharing system among different classes, corporatism state pursues the following four fundamental principles: the principle of autonomy, the principle of cooperation, the principle of checks and balance, and the ① Xiao Gongqin is a major advocator of neo-authoritarianism. He believes that neo-authoritarianism is an essential transitional period from totalism to democratic political system. He pointed out that, neo-authoritarianism has its positive roles in pushing forward the development of market economy and economic liberalization, and at the same time, it adapts to the new demands of the limited pluralism from the society. ② Pan Wei, The Rule of Law and Chinese Future Political System, Journal of Strategy and Management, No. 5, 1999. ③ Pan Wei, The Blind Worship on Democracy and the Direction of Chinese Political Reform, cited from the website of Chinese thoughts and cultures: http://www.6000year.com/readartile.asp?t_id=64331&classid= Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 principle of share. The first principle of the cooperation state is autonomy for both power, capital, knowledge and labor. The so-called power autonomy refers to carry out the authoritarianism politics. The ruling group outmatches all the social classes, these group is only responsible for themselves subjectively, but it is accountable to all people and the whole state from the point of view of objective outcome. The most members of bureaucrats come from intellectual class, and examination system bridges the intellectual class and the ruling class. The so-called ‘capital autonomy’ is the market economy plus the rule of law, that is, to build the capital autonomy via by the market mechanism and the rule of law encircling the protection of private properties. The principle of knowledge is the freedom of speech, press and academy. The so-called principle of labor autonomy is to organize the functionary associations which have the monopoly representation privileges, and workers could take part in politics through these associations. The purpose of ‘autonomy’ is to realize the effective cooperation. The cooperative political model is the system of multi-parties consultations or negotiations, in this system social members join into the functionary associations based on their labor divisions, and the public policies are jointly made by these associations and governments. Government chairs the classes’ negotiation in a neutral way, and social conflicts are resolved through negotiations. The implementation of the authoritarianism politics could confine the control of the wealthy on power to some extent, and to checks and balance the arbitrary power of the capital. The core content of the principle of share is to share in a fair way the wealth and opportunities, to restrict the economic power of the capital through building welfare state, to restraint the political power of the capital through authoritarianism and corporatism, and to safeguarding the basic rights of the disadvantaged groups. Cooperation state theory wishes to promote the compromise and equilibrium between liberty and equality. ① The third one is the theory of building democratic state institutions. Wang Shaoguang and Hu Angang believe that, Chinese political transition should focus on strengthening and improving the public authorities and make it democratization rather than blindly abolish or constraint the public authorities. In other words, the focus should be to make the existing state institutions democratization and institutionalization and standardization, to enhance vigorously the weakness part of the state institutions, and to build a government with strong capacity of good governance. Building fundamental state institutions should surround the following eight state capacities, which include: the capacity of safeguarding state security and public order (coerce capacity); the capacity of mobilizing and dispatching social resources (collect capacity); the capacity of fostering and consolidating national identity (legitimatize capacity); the capacity of maintaining economic and social orders (regulatory capacity); the capacity of retaining the control, supervision and coordination within state institutions(leadership capacity); the capacity of vindicating distributive justice ( redistribution capacity); the capacity of bringing the demand of ① Kang Xiaoguang, On the Cooperative State, origin from Journal of Strategy and Management, No. 5, 2003, cited from the website of Chinese thoughts and cultures: http://www.6000year.com/readartile.asp?t_id=66096&classid=2 Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 citizens participation into the channel of official institutions (admit capacity); the capacity of coordinating different interests and formalizing public policies (integrate ion capacity). The breakthrough point of building basic state institutions should be to adjust the relationship, to establish the modern public finance system, to enlarge the channels of citizen’s political participations, and at the same time to strengthen party building. In a simple word, China needs to implement the second generation reform strategy, that is, to push forward actively the basic state institutions. ① The fourth one is the theory of incremental democracy. Yu Keping raises the view of incremental democracy of political reform. It includes several major points: first point is to emphasis the democratic procedures and to realize the procedural democracy; second point is to appreciate the role of civil society organizations and citizens in building socialist democracy; third point is to cry up the rule of law, put the ruling party under the rule of law; fourth point is to push forward the inner party democracy and grassroots democracy as breakthrough point; fifth point is to let the ruling party and government play a leading role in building democracy. ② The fifth one is the theory of rule of law with democracy. Wang Guixiu thought that, the fundamental malpractice of the old system is ‘over-centralization of power’, which manifests as ‘over-centralization of power into the hand of party committee’, ‘over-centralization of power into the national government’, and ‘over-centralization of power into the senior officials’. Political reform needs to reform this kind of political system, to build ‘a kind of system of rule of law with democracy. ’③ These five views on political reform have different emphases. The theory of political system of rule of law with consultancy stresses the priority of the process of rule of law. The view of corporatism state stresses the cooperation and negotiation between authoritarianism state and functionary associations. The theory of building democratic state institutions stresses the fundamental role of building state capacity. The theory of incremental democracy stresses the irreplaceable role of both civil society and state in building democracy. The view of political system of rule of law with democracy stresses to realize inner party democracy in order to solve the problem of over-centralization of power into the hand of senior officials. But all of them have some common elements. First, all of them highly appreciate the rule of law, put it as the first and most important goal of political reform. Second, all of them thought that their political reform plan could be accept by various parties, and thus is easy to realize the transition smoothly between the new and the old political system and would not cause big social shock. Due to it, their plans are feasible and could put into operation. Finally, all of them are very cautious on electoral democracy especially general elections nationwide. Some scholars such as Pan Wei and Kang Xiaoguang e even oppose the electoral democracy firmly. The theory of ‘political system of rule of law with consultancy’ views the democratization and the move forward toward rule of law as two processes that could not be compatible and even fight off each other. It is not only contradict with the reality of parallel development of grassroots democracy ① Wang Shaoguang, Hu Angang, Zhou Jianming, Second Generation of Reform Strategy: Pushing forward actively the state institutions building, Journal of Strategy and Management, No. 2, 2003, pp. 90-95. ② Yu Keping, 2006, Democracy and Top, Peking University Press, pp.318-321. ③ Wang Guixiu, On the Breakthrough Point of Political Reform, Journal of Scientific Socialism, No.1, 2002, p.4. Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 and building the state of rule of law, but also hard to get support from various social groups due to it does consciously spurn democracy. In addition, when they oppose democracy in general, the theory of political system of rule of law with consultancy has included some basic elements of liberal democracy and deliberative democracy such as independent judicial system, social consultancy system, the freedoms of speech, press, assembly and associations under the legal protection into its model as major institutional pillars. Therefore, their theory exists inner contradictions. The theory of corporatism state views authoritarianism state as a kind of permanent political system, while international and domestic academia intend to see authoritarianism politics as a kind of periodical and transitional political system, its destination is democratic political system. The theory of building democratic state institutions stresses the priority of building state capacities and has the tendency of state-center, and thus pays less attention on the idea of democratic governance such as the capacity building of civil society and deliberation and partnership between civil society and state. The theory of incremental democracy pays less attention on deliberative democracy. The theory of political system of rule of law with democracy stresses inner party democracy and thus pay little attention on social democracy especially grassroots democracy. All of these five theories have their merits and we could draw lessons from them. Based on the above theory, I would like to put forward my view on political reform, that is, to build the compound democratic political system under the guide of liberal socialism. Liberal socialism advocates the political idea of liberty first compound with social justice, which is a kind of political value system that could compatible with socialist market economic system. Compound democratic political system is a kind of political institutional arrangement that manifests the political idea of liberal socialism. It is a kind of political system that composed of electoral democracy, liberal democracy and deliberative democracy. The so-called electoral democracy refers to that leaders at various levels are elected through general, free and competitive elections. The electoral democracy is the major element of procedural democracy, and it is also the institutional guarantee of building political accountability. The liberal democracy includes such elements as constitutional democracy, rule of law, the limited government, independent judicial system, checks and balance of power; freedom of press, its core is to push forward the transition toward rule of law. The liberal democracy is institutional guarantee of political freedoms and rights of citizens and of the development of civil society. Deliberative democracy is an important form of democracy, which makes the deliberative policy-making process between functionary associations and state institutionalization through a lot of channels such as elite’s recruitment, policy consultation, public hearings, media discussions, and public deliberation. Its purpose is to maintain social justice and hear the voice of the disadvantage groups in the compulsory distribution process of social values. The path toward building the compound democratic political system is to combine the way of bottom up of pushing forward electoral democracy, the way of top-down process to advance the rule of law, and the way of breakthrough from the middle levels of deliberative democracy and extend to grassroots level and higher levels. The theory of Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 the compound democracy draws the idea of democratic governance, which pointed out that, the direction of political reform should be to deepen democracy, advance the rule of law, safeguard the human rights, raise the government efficiency, and promote clean government. It not only pays attention on state capacity buildings, but also pays attention on civil society capacity building. It not only emphasis the democratization, but also emphasis the rule of law. It not only stresses the political freedom, but also stresses the social justice; it not only stresses inner party democracy, but also stresses the social democracy. It not only emphasis political reform, but also emphasis the smooth transition from the old system to the new system and their link up. Therefore, the compound democratic political system is a kind of desirable and feasible political choice. Ⅱ. The Preference Path of Chinese Political Reform: Incremental Political Reform Chinese economic reform is a kind of incremental reform. Meanwhile, Chinese political reform is also a kind of incremental reform. In recent years, international and domestic transitional economists have engaged in study in depth on the path of Chinese economic reform and its characters and have made a lot of valuable academic works. Some scholars from political science circles recently have put forward many insightful views on the path of Chinese political reform and its characters. The transitional economics began its study on the path characters and its benefits and weaknesses of Chinese economic reform from the comparison of economic transitions between China and Russia. The mainstream view is that China has gone along the road of incremental reform, while Russia has chosen a way of radical reform named as shock treatment. Incremental reform is a process to advance reform through making experiments, to move forward step by step, implement the plan from parts first then to the unity. Through the comparison of reform performance between China and Russia, the recognize view in academia is that incremental reform is better than radical reform. Some scholars have verified this view in theory. The different initial conditions, different goals and nature of reform, all of them decided that China and Russia chose different reform plans. The favorable initial conditions, the socialist nature and goals of reform decide that China could only choose incremental reform pattern. ①One theory that supports incremental reform comes from epistemologically empiricism and evolutionism. American economist Murell believes that, the philosophical support on incremental theory could come from two different theoretical schools, that is, ‘evolution economics’ and ‘conservative political philosophy’. All of them oppose the ‘constructive rationalism’ tradition of institutional evolution, and advocate the ‘evolution rationalism’. The evolutionism economics views the society as a kind of information process mechanism. Social evolution is a process of aggregative development of the current information and knowledge stocks. The evolutionists call this process as ‘climb the mountain via by grasping stones’ (there are surprisingly similarities between it and Deng Xiaoping’s Liu Wenge, Yuan Qingshou, ‘Transition Economics and its Concerned Issues: the Comparison of Reforms between Russia and China’, The Journal of Economist, No.3, 2000, pp.90-96. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 word ‘get through the river via by touching the stones’). Institutional evolution just like climb the mountain, the information and knowledge stock of every organization is very limited, and thus could only move forward cautiously and step by step. The evolutionists thought that, reform process is a process of ‘learning by doing’. The evolutionism attaches importance to the partial experimentations and trials and the relevant accumulated experiences and wisdoms, and consequently opposes those plans that have very large size, fast speed and less reversibility. Incremental reform needs not only to preserve the existing system to some extent, but also to encourage the development and expansion of the new system, and thus it will lead to the ‘dual track system’. ① Another theory that supports incremental reform comes from the analysis on the costs and benefits of reform. Many scholars pointed out that, the radical reform is very fast but very costly, while the incremental reform is very slow but costs fewer. Fan Gang, a Chinese scholar, distinguished the reform cost into the so-called ‘implementation cost’ and ‘rub cost’. He believes that, the implementation cost is the decreasing function of the radical degree of reform, while the rub cost is the increasing function of the radical degree of reform. The implementation cost of incremental reform is higher than that of radical reform, but its rub cost is far lower than that of radical reform, and thus it is a reform path with less resistance. ②Lin Yifu and some other scholars pointed out that, Chinese incremental reform has had the nature of ‘Pareto Improvement ’, that is, it focuses on expanding the total sum of the distributable resources in order to make people benefit at large and doesn’t change the established interest structure directly. ③ Incremental reform stress the top-down pattern of reform, its reform began from the micro-level, partial experiments, and increment reform out the exist system, and then move forward step by step to the macro reform, overall spreading, and inventory reform within the system. This is another difference between China’s incremental reform and former Soviet Union and East European bloc’s reform. Its advantage is that it could transform the big shock into little shock, and thus reduce the risk of social turbulence. Incremental reform has its own limitations, such as the adding up cost and follow-through apportion cost will increasingly rise, and thus the resistance of further reform will consequently rise. ④ Due to lack of scientific design on whole system, the link up and coordination of different reform measures is quite insufficient, the rub cost between the old system and the new system and among various parts of the new system is very huge. Enlightened by the transitional economics, some political scientists also began to sum up the path characters and basic experiences of Chinese political reform from the point of view of reform politics. Zheng Yongnian pointed out in his article ‘Political Incrementalism: Political Experiences of 20 Years Reform’ that, Chinese political reform is a process of making progress continually via by trials and manifests the Zhang Jun, ‘Transition Economics: What have We Known’, Journal of Battlefront of Social Science, No. 5, 1998, pp.13-26. ② Reference to Fan Gang, ‘Two Reform Patterns and Two Kinds of Reform Costs’, Journal of Economic Study, No.1, 1993. ③ Reference to Lin Yifu etc., 1995. Chinese Miracle: The Development Strategy and Economic Reform, Shanghai Sanlian Publishing House and Shanghai People’s Press. ④ Huang Shaoan, ‘The Basic Experiences and Lessons of Chinese Economic Reform’, Journal of Shandong Social Science, No.5, 2002, p.8. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 feature of Incrementalism. ①Xu Xianglin Pointed out that, Chinese political reform is a kind of incremental reform, which refers to a kind of rational and reliable policies made by reformers in terms of the realism goals and leave the rooms for adjusting at any moment the exiting policies. This is due to the limited conditions that known and lack of comprehensions on the reform outcomes. The accumulated effects of incremental reform have made great achievements. The reason of its success is that, reformers insist on the incremental reform pattern from the start to the end and guided by the realism goals when the reform began. The policy choices of political reform is rational and prudence, the reform on the old system maintain the relatively balance of inheritance and change all the time. ②In his another article, Xu Xianglin Stresses that the method of ‘Going Cross the Rive through Touching the Stones’ provides opportunities of learning continually from the reform process for the leaders, executors, and people. Meanwhile, it makes policy choices flexible to be evaluated and adjusted in terms of the reform outcomes. Incremental reform manifests the character of wavelike progress. Due to this, it reduces the possibilities of reform falling into traps and is helpful to cope with the uncertainness that take place in the reform process. The successful use of the ‘Pass over the Rive through Touching the Stones’ as a kind of epistemological and methodological instrument has guaranteed the ceaselessly progress of Chinese incremental political reform. ③ Yu Keping pointed out that, just like economic reform, Chinese political reform is also a kind of incremental and inventory reform. Besides the characters of incrementalism and path-dependence, he also stresses to both retain the existing inventory and create new increment. Meanwhile, he also believes that, incremental political reform has the nature of ‘Pareto Improvement’, that is, to realize the stability, order and efficiency of political reform through enlarging the new adding interests in the premise of no harm on the citizens’ existing interests. ④It is worth to point out that, some scholars doubt the nature of ‘Pareto Improvement ’ that whether political reform has, since they thought that political reform is a kind of adjustment of the existing power and interest arrangements, as a result, it will have to change the original interests and thus hurts some people’s interests. The most important thing is to compensate the victims of political reform. Kang Xiaoguang thought that, Chinese reform model is a kind of incremental reform that ‘Going cross the River through Touching the Stones’, this kind of reform has no clear directions and goals, each concrete reform measure is to response urgently to the coming crisis. Reform as a kind of learning process, is a kind of passive reaction to the crisis. But due to the occupation of leading position between the relationship of state and society, government as a kind of ‘rational economic persons’ could choose the most beneficial plan among various alternative plans. Owing to it, the ruling party and government could overcome various crisis, realizing Zheng Yongnian, ‘Political Incrementalism: the Political Experiences of Chinese 20 Year’s Reform’, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 6, 1999. ② Xu Xianglin, ‘Chinese Incremental Political Reform on the Bases of Political Stability’, Journal of Strategy and Management, No.5, 2000, pp.16-26. ③ Xu Xianglin, ‘Pass over the River via by Touching the Stones’, Journal of Tianjin Social Science, No.3, 2002, pp.43-46. ④ Yu Keping, ‘Implement actively the Incremental Political Reform and Building Socialist Political Civilization’, Latest Developments of Theories, Vol. 1595, April 15, 2003, pp.9-11. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 both the ‘successful change’ and the ‘successful conservation’. ① To sum up the theories of the transitional economics and reform politics on the path characters and basic experiments of Chinese reform, we could reach the following fundamental conclusions: incremental political reform is the best way of Chinese political reform. Its characters are the following: the guiding thought of political reform is that ‘Going cross the River through Touching the Stones’; the reform process is a process of moving forward step by step via by making experiments and trials; reform process is an irreversible process that makes breakthrough continually via by periodical achievements from easy reform to difficult reform, from the outside to the core, from increment to inventory. The reasons that why incremental political reform is the best way of Chinese political reform are the following: first, reformers could keep leadership on the reform continually, and could rationally and timely choose feasible reform plan on the bases of measuring costs and benefits of different plans; second, it consciously choose a reform path that resistance is very small, try to transform one big shock into several small shocks, reduce the rub cost of reform, and thus it is easier to reach the equilibrium of political reform and political stability than that of radical reform; third, incremental political reform stresses to make experiments in some regions first, to test by practice, and to adjust timely the relevant reform plans in terms of the reform effects, and to reach both the goal of institutional innovations and the goal of solving the uncertainty of reform outcome, and thus to avoid the reform lock into the traps; finally, the fruits of political transition of incremental political reform are more firmly consolidated, this is because that reform plan is based on the experiences of making experiments and thus have more opportunity to succeed, and because that the reform speed suits the speed of the evolution of social structure and political culture, and consequently the transition of political system is on the bases of the evolution of social structure and political culture. Ⅲ. The Creative Structural Transformation in Political Transition: Dual track Political System Incremental political reform needs a relevant longer period of political transition. During this transitional period, the co-existence of the old and new systems is a kind of normal political form. Dual track price system is called by many economists as the important innovations of Chinese economic reform. The transformation from the truck of the planning price to the dual track price system of the co-existence of the planning price and market price and then to the truck of market price is the key element of smooth transition of market-orientation reform. Whether it could creates such a kind of new system that could be compatible with the old political system and also could replace step by step the old political system is a key element of successful institutional transformation for political reform. The dual track political system is the guarantee of soft landing of political reform. In the political transition process from totalism to democratic system, the Reference to Kang Xiaoguang, ‘China as a Special Case—Rethinking on the 25 Years’ Experiences of the Mainland China’, Journal of Strategy and Management, No.4, 2003, pp.56-62; Kang Xiaoguang, ‘Why China Succeed: Rethinking on the 25 Years’ Experience of the Mainland China’, Journal of China Reform, No. 10, 2003, pp.5-7. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 authoritarianism political system as a kind of dual track political system which has both the characters of the old system and the new system is a kind of necessary transitional political system. Chinese political system before the reform and opening up to the outside world had both characters of totalitarianism and totalism. In the one hand, the power is highly concentrated on the national government, the ruling party and the individual senior officials. On the other hand, the state power penetrated into every corner of the whole society, state functions are no limitations, and the society had been swallowed by the state. It is hard to build democratic political system directly and quickly on the bases of such a kind of political system, this is because that democracy needs the relevant conditions to support it which include social and economic infrastructures, political structure, and political culture. The core element of political reform that stipulated by Deng Xiaoping is to implement the decentralization, which purpose is to realize the separation of enterprises from the government, the separation of government from the ruling party, to provide incentives for both national and local governments. China has steadily built a kind of technocrat’s authoritarianism political system after a long period of reform effort. This kind of political system has safeguarded the economic liberty and property rights, enhanced the development of market mechanism, released the control on the society, and formed preliminarily a kind of limited plural political arrangements. The authoritarianism political system has reached to some extent the equilibrium between the leadership of the ruling party, the authority of the national government, and the efficiency of government, regional creativity, and the autonomy of the society. The authoritarianism political system has created the essential conditions for the further transition toward democratic political system, such as the development of market economy, the growth of civil society, the increasingly pluralism of the interest groups, and the popularization of civic culture. The democratic political system could only been consolidated on such a firm bases. Just like mentioned above, the democratic political system that China needs to build should be a kind of compound democratic political system, which tries to realize the combination of electoral democracy, liberal democracy and deliberative democracy. Building dual track political system is an important bridge toward electoral democracy, liberal democracy and deliberative democracy. During the transition process from selective and appointment politics to the electoral politics, the dual track institutions that combine the elements of both selective politics and electoral politics provides necessary bridge for the transition. The traditional cadres’ recruitment and promotion system is a kind of pick up and appointment system control by the higher authorities. There are many innovative institutional arrangements in the process of reforming party and government cadres recruitment and promotion system in recent years, such as, ‘two rounds of voting for party secretary at the village level’, publicly recommending and competitive election for township mayors and party secretaries, and more transparent and democratic procedures of cadres examination and promotion which combine ‘democratic recommendation’ , opinion poll with the investigation of the organizational department, the discussion and approval of the higher authorities, and the public Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 notice for criticize before the formal appointment. These innovative institutional arrangements has resolved the issue of the combination of inner party democracy with social democracy in a better way, enlarged the degree of citizen’s participation in the process of cadres recruitment and promotion, safeguarded the right to know of the citizens, and meanwhile they also insisted on those basic principles such as the leadership of the ruling party and recruitment and promotion of cadres by the ruling party. They are a kind of creative dual track system since they have found the link up point between the cadres selective and appointment system and the mass recommendation and election system. Meanwhile, these innovative institutional arrangements had also had the potential to transition further toward electoral democracy, and thus they created the conditions for the transformation from the dual track system to the new single truck system. Therefore, in the transition process from the selective and appointment system to the electoral politics, it is worthwhile to encourage and advance such kind of institutional innovations. The dual track system that co-existence of rule of persons and the rule of law also pave the way for the transition from the rule by persons toward the rule of law. During the period of the Culture Revolution (1966-1976), China has experienced a period of rule by persons without any legal system, consequently citizen’s freedoms and rights were ignored, and political turbulence had lasted for a long time. After the reform and opening up to the outside world, improvement of socialist legal system has become an important goal of political reform. Emphasis on setting up legal system and enforcing legal system strictly, improving the legal system has been in fact an essential transitional period from the rule by persons to the rule of law, and this transitional period is a kind of rule by persons with the legal system. The 15th Party Congress had established the goal of building a socialist state of rule of law. Priority has been put on the govern by law, stressing the administration by law and judicial justice, while the law-making work has been improved. This is another important turning point and milestone event for the transition from the rule by persons to the rule of law. After the 16th Party Congress, domestic academia are actively advocating to govern the ruling party by law and to be the ruling party by legal elections and to build judicial examination system, etc., which indicate that there may be new breakthrough in the road to the rule of law. In the process of transition from monopoly decision making system to the deliberative decision making system, there is dual track system that co-existence of monopoly of decision making power and share of decision making power. In the horizontal decision-making power distribution within the regime system, dual track system refers to that the ruling party and the government as executive system is in the leadership position of the decision making process, and at the same time the People’s Congress and People’s Political Consultancy Conference could play the role of examination and approval, consultation and deliberation in the decision making process. It also fits the basic character of the so-called political system of rule of law with consultancy or ‘Incorporation of politics into administration’ model. ① The ‘Incorporation of politics into administration’ is named by King Yaoji on Hong Kong’s political system, Which character is that decision making power concentrated on the executive branch, the parliament has only performed ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 vertical decision making power distribution system within the regime, the suggestion that empower various provinces equal representatives and voices in the Finance and Economic Committee of National People’s Congress and meanwhile retain the resource distribution power and personnel appointment power in the hand of national government is a kind of institutional design that belongs to dual track system. In the decision making power distribution system that advocates the cooperative governance by the state and society together, the suggestion of corporative state model which require to remain the leadership of the state and meanwhile to build the negotiation mechanism between the functionary associations and state, is in fact also a kind of dual track decision-making system. These dual track decision making institutional designs open our minds and create the favorable conditions for the deliberative democracy. The 16th Party Congress put forward a lot of policy claims which are important measures toward deliberative democracy. These policy claims include the following: reform and improve the policy making system; establish public opinion collection system; establish public notice and public hearing system for the important items; improve the experts consultation system; push forward the decision making process more scientific and more democratic. ①Some local governments have created a lot of good institutional innovations such as the dialogue program between urban residents and municipal officials, the democratic consultation, deliberative conversations, the evaluation of People’s congress on the performance of governmental officials, the public forum by the internet media, all of them provide important platform for citizens participation into the discussion and examination of public policies. Therefore, these good practice is worthwhile to advocate and spread into more regions. Ⅳ. The Basic Driving Forces of Chinese Political Reform: Driven by Crises plus Interests Motivation Why did China’s political reform happen? Why could it last? This is an issue concerned by domestic academia. Study on the reasons why China’s political reform took place and lasted needs to analysis the motivation mechanism of political reform. Analysis on the motivation mechanism of political reform could be carried out from many different points of views. I would like to analysis it from the point of view of neo-institutionalism. From the perspective of neo institutionalism, reform in fact is an institutional innovation process that breaks the old system and replaces it with new system. Political reform is a process of political institutional innovations. The national and local governments are the major players of institutional innovations. If we distinguished the institutional evolution into the induced institutional change by individuals or groups and the compulsory institutional evolutions engaged by the role of consultation and examination and approval. The Chief Executive and various functionaries have also hearing opinions from various social circles via by building citizens consultation committees. Kang Xiaoguang prefers this kind of policy making system, and suggests the mainland China to adopt the similar decision making system. ① Jiang Zemin, 2002, Building the Overall Xiaokang Society and Create the New Situation of Socialist Intercourse with Chinese Characters—Report on the 16th Party Congress of Chinese Communist Party(Nov.8th, 2002), pp.34-35. Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 government in terms of the usual practice of economics,① then political reform is a kind of compulsory institutional evolution under the leadership of government. Governments at various levels are the providers of the new system and the reformers of the old system. Why did government want to reform the old system and provide new system? Government as reformer is in fact also a kind of rational economic person, and wants to make a rational choice that could maximize its interests via by the calculation of the costs and benefits. Only if the implementation cost is too big to bear due to the increasing resistance from the demanders of the new system, the reformers have realized that the crisis is coming, and then the reform will be put on the agenda, the old institutional equilibrium will be broken out. In other words, only when the old system faced with the heavy challenges and were into big troubles, the reformers would realize the pressure and the necessity of reform. Only when they are sure that the expected benefits are bigger than the expected costs, the suppliers would have the motivation to provide new system through engaging in institutional innovations. Otherwise, the outcome will be the shortage of institutional supply. In a simple word, the awareness of crisis advances the institutional reform, while the interest’s prediction drives the institutional innovations. The occurrence and last of Chinese political reform is the outcome of these two factors playing their role together. Opening up to the outside world and the Globalization make China’s political reform face the heavy challenges from the fierce outside competition and the strong pressure from the demonstration effects of the foreign regimes, all the Chinese leadership, intellectuals and the original people could feel this kind of challenges and pressures. The miserable lessons from the Culture Revolution make people discard the old political system since they have realized its basic weakness of the over--centralization of powers after they become the victim of it. After the reform and opening up to the outside world, the political legitimacy base of the ruling party and government has transformed from the legitimacy of revolution toward the legitimacy of economic performance. The performance that manifested in economic development and the rise of people’s life level has become the major instruments to gain political benefits such as win people’s support. The developmental state has become the basic feature of the state during this period. The major concern of the reformers is that whether it could advance economic development and whether it could adjust to the demand of economic reform when they decide whether or not to launch political reform and how to choose the prefer sequence of political reform. And thus it is not difficult to understand the reasons that why political reform is a kind of adaptive reform, why administrative reform could enjoy the priority on the agenda of political reform. The reasons are the following: it could bring about bigger predicated political benefits to advance political reform in terms of the requirements of economic development and economic reform, while administrative reform is such a kind of reform that could promote both economic development and economic reform and not to hurt the political stability and political leadership. Chinese political reform Lin Yifu, 1994, ‘The Economic Theory about the Institutional Evolution: Sponsor Evolution and Coercive Evolution’, in Coase etc., Property Rights and Institutional Evolution---the Collection of Translated Papers by Property Rights School and Neo-Institutional Economics, Shanghai Sanlian Publishing House and Shanghai People’s Press, p.386. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 has manifested the character of wavelike progress. After entering into the mid term of reform, the new pressures for political reform have emerged. These new pressures include: the rampant political corruption, the weakens of state capacity, the serious unfairness of income distribution, the shock of non-institutional participation tide on political stability, the huge change of the Soviet Union and Eastern European Regimes, and China’s joining into WTO. All of them have challenged greatly the existing political system and make it feel heavy pressure due to the increasing demand about political reform. The performance legitimacy has its own limitations that hard to overcome. When economic development faced with difficulties and the polarization between the rich and the poor become increasing worse, the bad performance inevitably weaken the legitimacy. Building the new legitimacy base become more and more important. The strong motivation for advancing political reform comes from the demand to build long term, dynamic political stability mechanism, to curb the rampant political corruption, to promote economic development, and to maintain social justice. Carrying out political reform that could move forward to the electoral democracy and rule of law has become the rational policy choice to ease the coming political crisis and to gain the predicted political benefits. As a result, a new round of political reform has happened. What are the conditions needed that innovative institutional arrangements lasts for a long time? In other words, what are the conditions of successful institutional innovations? According to the view of neo-institutionalism economics, successful institutional innovations should realize the reward increase by degree for various parties, let all the parties that influenced by the institutions could benefit from the new institutional arrangements, and reach the outcome of win-win game, or at least could meet the Kaldor Criteria① to let the victims gain enough compensation and thus reduce the resistance on reform. At the same time, it also needs to realize the decrease by degree of the institutional implementation cost, make the ratio of cost-benefit of the new institutions higher than that of the old institutional arrangement. Only if this requirement be met, the new institutional arrangement could get support from the relevant parties and thus could last and spread into more regions. In addition, the ideological support on the new institutions is also very important. Public support on the institutions comes from not only the consideration on their own interests but also the judgment on the fairness of the institutions. The role of ideology is to guide people to realize the justice of the special institutions and then support them consciously, which could reduce the institutional implementation cost. Xu Xianglin has engaged in a comprehensive and concrete analysis on the conditions that political reform could last. He pointed out that, the continuation of political reform need to meet five requirements: first, political reform must have the Cardo Pointed out that, ‘Any potential change should be tested by the following: need to ask all those people that hurt by reform outcome, get their opinion that how much should pay them for the incontinence bring about by the reform. Similarly, need also to ask all those people who gains from the reform, get their opinion how much money they would like to transfer and meanwhile not to give up their gained interests. If the sum of the latter one is larger than the sum the former one, it could be affirmed that this is the social desirable reform’. It’s meaning is that, if the reform want to get social support and lasted, the beneficiary of reform or the reformers themselves need to give sufficient compensation to the victims of the reform under the premise of not to weaken the established interests. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 ability to solve the social and political crisis faced; second, political reform must have the ability to maintain and consolidate the leadership of the ruling party and increase its political resources and political legitimacy; third, political reform must have the ability to retain the relative stability and inheritance of the political system; fourth, the existing political system must have the ability to adjust itself; fifth, the rulers must have the ability to learn by doing, could draw lessons and learn new knowledge continually from the practice, and could understand and grasp the fruits of political reform. He thought that, China’s incremental political reform have met all the five requirements, and thus could implement smoothly and could last for a long time. ① Kang Xiaoguang believes that, Chinese government have strong capacity to learn and to preserve, and thus could realize both ‘successful change’ and ‘successful conservation’ at the same time, this is also the important reason that why China’s reform has been successful. ② Local government reform and innovation is an important part of China’s political reform. As the subject of institutional innovations, local governments have made a lot of beneficial experiments in government reform and innovations. The motivations of local government innovations are similar with national government in some aspects, but they are also different in many aspects. The similarities are the following: when the outside pressure is large enough, which come from the outside competition from the other regions and the demonstration effects of the advanced institutions, some local governments will engage in institutional innovations as a response to the pressure. The difference is the following: the content of the expected political benefits and political costs faced by national and local government is quite different. The expected political benefits for the national government are to enhance political legitimacy and retain at the power for a long time. The expected political benefits and political costs of local governments are from higher authorities, this is because the promotion and awards of local governmental officials dependent on higher authorities under the cadres selective and appointment system, consequently the indices of examination and evaluation on official’s performance and various system of ‘deny all performances if performance in one index is bad’ stipulated by higher authorities have been guiding the behaviors of local officials. The performance on the indices of economic examination and evaluation such as the amount of attracting foreign direct investments and private capitals, the total sum of GDP and the annual growth of economic development, have decided the promotion of local officials. The performances on public security, collective appeals, anti-corruption, birth control, any item of the above could influence the promotion or punishment of local officials. Good performance and the consequent promotion are the major motivations of local officials to launch institutional innovations. In order to improve the investment environment, to promote regional economic development, to maintain social stability, to reduce corruption, and to advance social justice, local government officials have Xu Xianglin, ‘China’s Incremental Political Reform on the Base of Political Stability’, Journal of Strategy and Management, No.5, 2000, pp.16-26. ② Reference to Kang Xiaoguang, ‘China as an Exceptionalism--Rethinking on the Lessons of Mainland China’s 25 Years Reform’, No. 4, 2003, pp.56-62; Kang Xiaoguang, ‘Why China has been Succeed—Rethinking on the Lessons of Mainland China 25 Year’s Reform’, Journal of China Reform, No.10, 2003, pp.5-7. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 engaged in multiple political reform, administrative reform and reform of public service provision. Linking up with that, the sustainability and popularity of local government reform and innovations rely to a large extent on the attitude of higher authorities especially the attitude of central government. If higher authorities support and encourage those local officials who are bold in engaging in reform and innovations and spread actively those innovative institutional arrangements, then local government reform and innovations will go into an orbit of virtue circle. Otherwise, local government reform and innovations will become increasingly shrink. Ⅴ. The Historical Process of China’s Political Reform: Periods, Progresses and Problems Since 1978 China has lunched its reform and open up to the outside world, China’s political reform has entered into its 20th year. ‘Four periods’ view is very popular when scholars divide the historical course of China’s political reform into different periods. Huang Weiping, Wang Guixiu and Wang Huaichao, all of them have put forward this kind of view, though they are different by the stages and the content of different stages. Huang Weiping thought that, it is the first stage of foundation settlement for China’s political reform which were from the end of 1978 to 1985, its focal points are to carry out the administrative institutional reform and to rebuild the grassroots regime in rural areas; it is the second stage of hot propaganda for China’ s political reform from 1986 to the early 1989, the focal points are to separate the government from the ruling party and continue to engage in administrative reform; it is the third stage which is a historical turning point, it focus on keeping political stability; it is the stage of development recessively for China’s political reform, which focus on to advance administrative reform and the rule of law in order to adapt to the demands of market economy development, and its strategy is to dwell political reform into the economic reform. ①According to Wang Guixiu, the four phases are the following: the first phase is to raise the task of political reform which is from the third Session of 11th Party Congress to 1980; the second phase is to draw the political reform plan form 1980 to the 13th Party Congress; the third phase is to move forward circuitously from the 13th Party Congress to the 14th Party Congress; the fourth phase is to realize a breakthrough in the thinking way of political reform. ② Wang Huaichao thought that, it is the phase of tentative exploration on political reform from the end of the 1970s to the mid 1980s; it is the overall deployment phase of political reform from the mid-1980s to the end of 1980s; it is the phase of drawing lessons and adjusting thinking way of political reform from the end of 1980s to the mid-1990s; it is the phase to advance political reform in terms of the demands of socialist market economic development which has been from the mid-1990s to present. ③Chinese political reform manifests the character of wavelike march. During these four phases, there are four rounds of administrative institutional reform, meanwhile grassroots ① Huang Weiping, 1998, Discussion freely on China’s Political Reform, Beijing: Central Compilation & Translation Press, pp.135-149. ② Wang Guixiu, 1999, ‘A Reform that is Hard and Long: Rethinking in the 20th Anniversary of Political Reform ’, in Liu Zhifeng Edit, Report on the Issue of China’s Political Reform, Beijing: China’s Cinema Press, pp.27-30. ③ Wang Huaichao, ’24 Years of China’s Political Reform’, Journal of the Latest Development of the Theories, Vol.1595, April. 10, 2003, pp.14-27. Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 democracy has gone forward, and the content of reform remains some continuity. But in the other side, the thinking way of political reform has made important adjustment since 1990s, mentioned no longer to solve the root cause of illness of the old political system which is the ‘over centralization of power’, and mentioned no more the separation of the government from the ruling party. It now stresses to strengthen the leadership of the ruling party, but at the same time, speeding up the step of building modern civil servant system, introducing step by step the citizen’s participation institutions into the selection and appointment system of the party and government senior officials. The ruling party have also accepted and adopted those terms such as ‘rule of law’, human rights, ‘Checks and Balance of Power’, and consequently strengthened the relevant institutional building. Political reform in the past more than 20 years has made great achievements. As mentioned above, Chinese political system before the reform is a kind of mixed political system that combined totalitarianism and totalism. The over-centralization of the power is the root cause of illness of this kind of political system. The core content of political reform is to decentralize the power, and thus to realize the separation of the enterprises from the government, the separation of government with the party, the decentralization of power between national and local governments, the separation of society from the state. After more than 20 years’ political reform, it has made great progress in the separation of enterprises from government, the separation of economy from the politics and the autonomy of the society. Market-orientation economic reform and the consequently administrative reform that adapt to it which major content are to transform the functions of government and to simplify economic administrative institutions of government, have realized basically the separation of state –owned enterprises from the government, meanwhile keep the necessary length between government and private enterprises, and thus realized the separation of economy from the politics. With the development of grassroots democracy, villager’s self-governance has made huge achievements, and urban resident self-governance has also had a good start. With the contraction of government functions and the development of the private sector, various kinds of civil organizations and associations have emerged, meanwhile the state has still remained strong control on civil society, and the latter one has manifested both the characters of official and civil organizations. The reform of transferring law-making power, financial power and handling daily affairs power to the local governments by national government in 1980s has stimulated the enthusiasm of local governments for economic development. As a result, local governments have become the power engine of economic growth. But the reform of decentralization has also weakened the authority and capacity of regulation and control of national government. Since the mid-1990s, national government has strengthened its control on local governments and enhanced its capacity of regulation and control via by implementing the system of tax division between central and local government, appointing and removing local leaders, and enhancing vertical leadership of the functional departments of central government. But at the same time it also holds back the enthusiasm and creativity of local governments. How to divide reasonably the purview of administrative power among Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 governments at various levels and to build a kind of intergovernmental system that could stimulate initiatives of governments at various levels has still been an issue that waits to be solved. The intersect of government with the party organizations and the over-centralization of power into the hands of individual leaders involved in the reform of the leadership system of the ruling party and the state, and thus is a key issue of political reform. In order to solve the problem of over-centralization of power into the individual leaders within the party, the collective leadership system has been established step by step since the 3rd plenary session of the 11th party congress, consequently the power of individual leaders has been restrained to some extent by the collective leadership. But how to strengthen the restraint from the angel of democratic empower has not been solved yet. Therefore, the development of inner party democracy seems increasingly urgent. The separation of government from the party is an important issue that could not be evaded for political reform. It needs to reform the leading way and govern pattern of the ruling party on the base of developing inner party democracy, and realize gradually the functional separation of the government organizations from the party organizations. The battle of assaulting fortified positions for political reform needs to be put on the agenda as soon as possible. When we pointed out the achievements and progresses of political reform, we also need to realize a serious of problems caused by the relevant lag behind of political reform. Comparison with economic reform which has entering into the phase of assaulting fortified positions, political reform has still been in the phase of periphery battle. ①Up to now, political reform has been still a kind of adaptable reform which select the priority and content of political reform in terms of the demands of economic reform. The progresses of different parts of political reform is quite imbalance. The administrative reform has made relatively great progress. The reform of cadre’s personnel system has made some progress. The reform of intergovernmental relations has move forward two steps and back off one step. The reform of the leadership system of the government and party, the reform of decision making mechanism, judicial system reform, and the building of checks and balance of power, all of them still lag behind. The electoral democracy has still settled at the level of village self-governance. The level of institutionalization of civic engagement is still very low. Lag behind of political reform has caused various non-institutional and illegal behaviors of political participation such as collective appealing more frequently and more radical. The tensions between cadres and mass, between party and mass have become increasingly intensified. The corruption in the political sphere such as the corruption of chief officers, the corruption within the selection and appointment system of cadres, judicial corruption, and bribes within public sector, have been increased. The legitimacy of the ruling party and the state has been eroded rapidly. Going to heaven or hell for future China dependents to a large extent on whether China could pass through the ridge of political reform. ② Wang Guixiu, 1999, ‘A Reform that is Hard and Long: Rethinking in the 20th Anniversary of Political Reform ’, in Liu Zhifeng Edit, Report on the Issue of China’s Political Reform, Beijing: China’s Cinema Press, pp.27-30. ② Huang Renzong, ‘The Ridge of China’s Political Reform’, Journal of Strategy and Management, No.2, 2002, ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 Ⅵ. The Prospect of China’s Political Reform: A Race between Reform and Revolution Advancing continually incremental political reform is both the essential requirement of the development gradually of civil society but also the strategic choice of the political leaders. The two most important theoretical models are the theory of civil society and the theory of strategic choice. ① These two theoretical models supplement each other and reveal the motivation mechanism of China’s incremental political reform and further political transition. After more than 20 years reform and open up to the outside world, the rudiment of China’s civil society has formed. The awareness of subject and rightness of citizens have boosted up. Various civil organizations and associations have increasingly flourished and have learnt gradually to self-governance. The stratum of middle level income has play a more and more important role in the whole social stratum structure and its force has been grown up. The relation of domination and dependency between state and society has been changing gradually. Political state, private sector and the third sector or civil society have begun to form the relevant independent subject of governance. The polycentric and autonomous governance structure will subvert the traditional government pattern of order and following the order centered on the state from its root. The democratic governance that stresses the cooperative management between government and civil society and the participation of stakeholders into the decision making process will become the mainstream of political development. The great transformation of social structure and pursue of civil society have become the strong driving force for further advancing incremental political reform. Faced with the strong pressure of demanding for democracy from civil society, the ruling group has to make difficult choice. If they just postpone or refuse to carry out political reform, then they will miss the good opportunity, as a result they will lost the power due to the coming political upheaval or revolution. “No reform there will have any means of subsistence” (Deng Xiaoping). If the reformers carry out rashly the radical political reform such as multi-party system and general election, then the reformers themselves will become the victim of the radical reform before they could gain any benefits since the reformer will lose the control on the reform and the opposition party will replace them to be in power. Revolution, upheaval or radical political reform will bring about the social turbulence, which neither meet the requirement of most people for the stability and wealthy nor come up to the basic interests of the political leadership group for lasting peace and order. Therefore, advancing continually incremental political reform and opening up gradually citizen’s political participation has become the rational strategic choice. What is the sally port of next step for China’s incremental political reform? Regarding the sally port of political reform, domestic academia has put forward many different views. Some scholars suggest that, inner party democracy is the sally port of political reform. Some scholars believe that, the rule of law should be carried out first; pp.72-82. ① Reference to Guo Dingping, ‘On the Background and Logics of the Contemporary Political Transitional Theory’, Academic Quarterly of Shanghai Social Science Academy, No.3, 1997, p.61. Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 democracy should give place to the rule of law for the next step of political reform. Some scholars argued that, the focal point should be to establish the negation and collaboration mechanism between the functional associations and the state. Some other scholars insisted on that, building state infrastructures around enhancing state capacities should go ahead one step before advancing democratization. All of these views are based on constructionist philosophy which try to design and plan the future political system in light of their own ideal, while incremental political reform is based on the evolutionist philosophy which stresses ‘learning by doing’. Watching the historical track of incremental political reform in the past 20 years, its path is to breakthrough from multiple sally ports and around multiple ways. Electoral democracy make breakthrough in the election of village committee first and then caused the important institutional innovations of ‘two rounds of voting for party secretary at village level’, and consequently promoted a series of important reforms of election for township leaders such as ‘public recommendation and open selection of town leaders’, ‘election of town mayors by two rounds of recommendations and one round of voting ’, and ‘direct election of town mayors’. Liberal democracy began from building legal system and transforming government functions, and then went deep into administration by law, come into power in accordance with legal procedures, building clean and efficient government, and finally put it into the agenda that carry out judicial system reform in the purpose of judicial justice and judicial independence. Deliberative democracy got breakthrough from making decision making process more science and more democratic, and are going deep into the institutionalization of deliberative decision making. Therefore, the next sally port of political reform should be to move forward further on the base of consolidating the above institutional innovations. Electoral democracy should put focal point on the democratic election at township level, which include direct election of town mayors and ‘two round of voting for township party secretary ’, and to carry out the link up mechanism between town mayor election and township party secretary elections when the conditions are mature. Liberal democracy should put its focal point on enhancing the authority of the Constitution and advancing further judicial system reform. Deliberative democracy should commit itself to institutionalize the deliberative decision-making in the big and medium size cities and then extent step and step to the upper and lower levels. In the history of Chinese political modernization since 1840s, the reformism and radicalism and consequently the reform and revolution have come forth by turns several times. The incremental reforms had been replaced by the revolution several times since the revolution missed its good opportunities, and thus Chinese political modernization has a bad fortune’s wheel. ①How far could it go for current China’s incremental political reform? This is dependent on two factors. One factor is that whether the reform could move forward timely and make breakthrough. Another factor is the capability of the current political system for further reform and the capacity of the current leadership group. First, China’s incremental reform belongs to crisis driven reform, which refers to that the scope and the intensity of the crisis is still Chu Jianguo, ‘The Evolution of Chinese Political Modernization Model’, Jianghan Tribune, No.7, 1997, pp.15-17. ① Congrès Marx International V - Contribution – Paris-Sorbonne et Nanterre – 3/6 octobre 2007 under control of the ruling group, meanwhile the ruling group has had strong awareness of crisis and realized that the reform accord with its own basic interests, and thus would like to advance reform timely to resolve the crisis. If the leadership group lack of the intention to reform, the opportunity of reform will go away silently, and the revolution will set in without anticipation due to the accumulation and explosion of contradictions and crisis. To this point, reform and revolution have had a race for time. Just like Zhu Xueqin said, if we still could climb up the mountain, we should be cautious to talk about revolution. However, the revolution often follow after the reform, if the revolution speed up, then the reform needs to move forward faster. ① Refolution is the only way to avoid revolution which means the reform in fast lane. Therefore it is very important for the leadership group to have strong awareness of crisis and to have the ability to advance in time political reform and to make important progress continually. Second, as Xu Xianglin pointed out, the level of institutionalization is very low for the staring point of China’s reform, meanwhile the there exist big gap between current political institutions and the operational mechanisms of the real politics, all of these provide very large space of institutional legalities for further incremental political reform. ②Kang Xiaoguang pointed out that, China’s future is open and uncertain, the possibility of failure could not be excluded. Whether China could succeed relies on the race between the speed of accumulation of problems and the speed of solving problems, and relies on the learning capacity of Chinese government and the create capability of Chinese people. Since the beginning of the reform, Chinese government has displayed very strong capacity of learning, and the creativity of Chinese people will not be lower than that of Singapore’s people. ③ Therefore, it is justifiable to be optimistic with some cautious for the prospect of China’s incremental political reform and the political transition toward democracy. Zhu Xueqin, ‘Revolution in these Thousand Years’, cited from website of sohu in May 5,2005: http://star.news.sohu.com/20050503/n225433140.shtml ② Xu Xianglin, ‘China’s Incremental Political Reform on the Base of Political Stability’, Journal of Strategy and Management, No.5, 2000, pp.16-26. ③ Reference to Kang Xiaoguang, ‘China as an Exceptionalism--Rethinking on the Lessons of Mainland China’s 25 Years Reform’, No. 4, 2003, pp.56-62; Kang Xiaoguang, ‘Why China has been Succeed—Rethinking on the Lessons of Mainland China 25 Year’s Reform’, Journal of China Reform, No.10, 2003, pp.5-7. ①