GLOBAL ENERGY MODEL – UPDATING OF THE GEM-DYN
[Filippov Sergey P., ERIRAS, +7 (499) 1274665, fil@eriras.ru]
[Savin Vladislav V., ERIRAS, +7 (499) 1230811, vsavin@eriras.ru, w11bsavi@mail.ru]
[Beresentsev Mikhail M., RKS, +7 (495) 6474293, mikle_zu@mail.ru]
[Marchenko Olev V., ESI SO RAS, +7 (3952) 511562, marchenko@isem.sei.irk.ru]
[Solomin Sergey V., ESI SO RAS, +7 (3952) 511562, solomin@isem.sei.irk.ru]
[Lebedev Alexander V., RZD, +7 (3952) 636334, avleb@irk.essr.ru]
[Tropanets Vladislav V., RGSU, +7 (3952) 636334, avleb@irk.essr.ru]
Overview
[In Russia world energy models are developed mainly in Academy of Sciences (in Moscow’s Energy Research Institute and in
Irkutsk’s Energy Systems Institute), where, for example, in the 1990s a global energy model for 10 mega-regions and time horizon
till 2050 was developed. This was a linear quasi-dynamic optimization model that had a detailed description of many technologies
in extraction, conversion, transportation and consumption of energy, a set of ecological constraints (for example, for CO2, NOx,
SO2 etc.) and allowed modeling answers to many questions regarding long-term tendencies in the global energy developments:
extent of the energy technologies developments, differences in energy structure between mega-regions, fuel and energy trade
between mega-regions, CO2 quotes distribution between mega-regions etc.]
Methods
[On the base of the above mentioned global energy model our team renewed the optimization model for the global energy. We used
the the same procedure: extraction of primary energy (coal, oil, gas, nuclear resources, biomass, water, wind, solar, geothermal
energy, and energy from space)  conversion to secondary energy (electrical energy or fuels: gasoline, methanol, hydrogen etc.) 
conversion to final energy (electrical, heat, mechanical, chemical).
In total we built a model with 8 technology groups: energy extraction technologies, conversion technologies in general, electricity
production technologies, chemical energy production technologies, heat production technologies, mechanical energy technologies,
pollution removal technologies, transportation technologies. In total 719 technologies in 10 regions (as in GEM the regions were:
North America, Europe, Japan and Korea, China, Former Soviet Union, South Asia, Latin America, Australia and New Zealand,
Africa under Sahara and Middle East) were modeled. The time horizon was beginning 2010 till 2050, time step 10 years.
The model was given by following formulas:
5
10
Z   crj xrj  min
t 1 r 1 jJ
s.t.
a
jJ1
a
jJ 3
x  bri - extractions constraints, iI1;
rij rj
a
lb
x  bri - final energy production constraints, where iI3;
rij rj
qJ
a
iI1;
min
rj
jJ 5
x   ariq xrq  bri - electricity production regimes constraints, iI4, and q≠j;
rij rj
constraints, iI5, and q≠j;
jJ 4
a
jJ 4
a
jJ1
x   arij xrj   arij xrj 
rij rj
jJ 2
jJ 3
a
jJ 4 , J 5
a
qJ
x   arij xrj  bri - pollution
riq rq
jJ 6
x  0 - balance equations for primary energy, where
rij rj
x   arij xrj   arij xrj   ariq xrq  0 - balance equations for secondary energy, where iI2, and q≠j;
rij rj
jJ 2
jJ 3
qJ
x    arij xrj    a pij x pj   ariq xrq  0 - electricity and power consumption balances, iI3, iI4, q≠j, p≠r;
rij rj
rR jJ 2
 xrj  ub
max
rj
pR jJ 3
qJ
- lower and upper bound constraints. Here I1 is the list of the primary energy resources, I2 is the list of the
secondary energy resources, I3 is the list of the final energy (mechanical, chemical, electrical, heat), I4 is the list of electricity
production regimes, I5 is the list of the pollution types, and J1 are extraction technologies, J2 / J3 are energy import / export
technologies, J4 are conversion to secondary energy technologies, and J5 are final energy production technologies, and J6 are
pollution removal technologies, q≠j.
We used the simple linprog method of Matlab solver (Mathworks product) for solving the corresponding linear optimization model.
Objective function was the cost of using the given technology in the given region in the given time period. The lower bounds were
all zeros; the upper bounds were usually set to 1000 GWe for technology’s capacity (with some exceptions). The constraints were
for: resources extraction, investments, ecology, and demography and energy consumption; in total, 81 balance inequalities blocks
and 11 balance equations blocks.]
Results
[As the results the model delivers the total amount of installed capacities for a given energy technology in a given region at a given
time period. This allowed: 1. Analysing the different global scenarios of the global energy developments (different levels of final
energy consumption, different levels of nuclear energy constraints, different levels of ecological or financial constraints); 2.
Researching changes in world energy structure (different approaches to the usage of primary energy resources, different speed for
exhaustion of the cheap energy resources, different levels of synthetic fuels production, and different strategies for the energy
resources usage for the final energy production); 3. Studying specific details in energy sectors developments in different regions
and interregional energy connections (regional peculiarities in energy resources usage for the electrical, heat and mechanical energy
production; details of interregional fuel exchange); 4. Exploring possibilities for sustainable developments (costs of different
pollution removal strategies for global energy system and global economy developments, influences of different emissions trade
mechanisms on global and regional energy sector and economy); 5. Exploring scenarios for new energy technologies (nuclear
technologies, renewable energy technologies, ‘space energy’ technologies).
The main results from the model are: 1. If we expect the growth of the energy consumption till 2050, then through global energy
system has enough resources the time of the cheap energy is gone. 2. Global constraint on emissions have big impact on energy
sector development around the world and make nuclear and renewable energy technologies the most efficient mean to solve the
pollution problems. 3. Cheap oil, gas, and coal resources will be to large extent exhausted till 2050, so prices from 2010 till 2050
should double. 4. The most usable renewable resources are traditional hydropower, biomass and wind energy.]
Conclusions
[The presented model allows seeing and analysing tendencies in the global energy developments till 2050. It makes it possible to
see efficient ways for usage of regional and global energy resources not only in the future, but also in the present.]
References
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Степанова Т.Б., Кокорин А.Л.: Мировая энергетика и переход к устойчивому развитию. – Новосибирск. Наука, 2000}
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