GLOBAL ENERGY MODEL – UPDATING OF THE GEM-DYN [Filippov Sergey P., ERIRAS, +7 (499) 1274665, fil@eriras.ru] [Savin Vladislav V., ERIRAS, +7 (499) 1230811, vsavin@eriras.ru, w11bsavi@mail.ru] [Beresentsev Mikhail M., RKS, +7 (495) 6474293, mikle_zu@mail.ru] [Marchenko Olev V., ESI SO RAS, +7 (3952) 511562, marchenko@isem.sei.irk.ru] [Solomin Sergey V., ESI SO RAS, +7 (3952) 511562, solomin@isem.sei.irk.ru] [Lebedev Alexander V., RZD, +7 (3952) 636334, avleb@irk.essr.ru] [Tropanets Vladislav V., RGSU, +7 (3952) 636334, avleb@irk.essr.ru] Overview [In Russia world energy models are developed mainly in Academy of Sciences (in Moscow’s Energy Research Institute and in Irkutsk’s Energy Systems Institute), where, for example, in the 1990s a global energy model for 10 mega-regions and time horizon till 2050 was developed. This was a linear quasi-dynamic optimization model that had a detailed description of many technologies in extraction, conversion, transportation and consumption of energy, a set of ecological constraints (for example, for CO2, NOx, SO2 etc.) and allowed modeling answers to many questions regarding long-term tendencies in the global energy developments: extent of the energy technologies developments, differences in energy structure between mega-regions, fuel and energy trade between mega-regions, CO2 quotes distribution between mega-regions etc.] Methods [On the base of the above mentioned global energy model our team renewed the optimization model for the global energy. We used the the same procedure: extraction of primary energy (coal, oil, gas, nuclear resources, biomass, water, wind, solar, geothermal energy, and energy from space) conversion to secondary energy (electrical energy or fuels: gasoline, methanol, hydrogen etc.) conversion to final energy (electrical, heat, mechanical, chemical). In total we built a model with 8 technology groups: energy extraction technologies, conversion technologies in general, electricity production technologies, chemical energy production technologies, heat production technologies, mechanical energy technologies, pollution removal technologies, transportation technologies. In total 719 technologies in 10 regions (as in GEM the regions were: North America, Europe, Japan and Korea, China, Former Soviet Union, South Asia, Latin America, Australia and New Zealand, Africa under Sahara and Middle East) were modeled. The time horizon was beginning 2010 till 2050, time step 10 years. The model was given by following formulas: 5 10 Z crj xrj min t 1 r 1 jJ s.t. a jJ1 a jJ 3 x bri - extractions constraints, iI1; rij rj a lb x bri - final energy production constraints, where iI3; rij rj qJ a iI1; min rj jJ 5 x ariq xrq bri - electricity production regimes constraints, iI4, and q≠j; rij rj constraints, iI5, and q≠j; jJ 4 a jJ 4 a jJ1 x arij xrj arij xrj rij rj jJ 2 jJ 3 a jJ 4 , J 5 a qJ x arij xrj bri - pollution riq rq jJ 6 x 0 - balance equations for primary energy, where rij rj x arij xrj arij xrj ariq xrq 0 - balance equations for secondary energy, where iI2, and q≠j; rij rj jJ 2 jJ 3 qJ x arij xrj a pij x pj ariq xrq 0 - electricity and power consumption balances, iI3, iI4, q≠j, p≠r; rij rj rR jJ 2 xrj ub max rj pR jJ 3 qJ - lower and upper bound constraints. Here I1 is the list of the primary energy resources, I2 is the list of the secondary energy resources, I3 is the list of the final energy (mechanical, chemical, electrical, heat), I4 is the list of electricity production regimes, I5 is the list of the pollution types, and J1 are extraction technologies, J2 / J3 are energy import / export technologies, J4 are conversion to secondary energy technologies, and J5 are final energy production technologies, and J6 are pollution removal technologies, q≠j. We used the simple linprog method of Matlab solver (Mathworks product) for solving the corresponding linear optimization model. Objective function was the cost of using the given technology in the given region in the given time period. The lower bounds were all zeros; the upper bounds were usually set to 1000 GWe for technology’s capacity (with some exceptions). The constraints were for: resources extraction, investments, ecology, and demography and energy consumption; in total, 81 balance inequalities blocks and 11 balance equations blocks.] Results [As the results the model delivers the total amount of installed capacities for a given energy technology in a given region at a given time period. This allowed: 1. Analysing the different global scenarios of the global energy developments (different levels of final energy consumption, different levels of nuclear energy constraints, different levels of ecological or financial constraints); 2. Researching changes in world energy structure (different approaches to the usage of primary energy resources, different speed for exhaustion of the cheap energy resources, different levels of synthetic fuels production, and different strategies for the energy resources usage for the final energy production); 3. Studying specific details in energy sectors developments in different regions and interregional energy connections (regional peculiarities in energy resources usage for the electrical, heat and mechanical energy production; details of interregional fuel exchange); 4. Exploring possibilities for sustainable developments (costs of different pollution removal strategies for global energy system and global economy developments, influences of different emissions trade mechanisms on global and regional energy sector and economy); 5. Exploring scenarios for new energy technologies (nuclear technologies, renewable energy technologies, ‘space energy’ technologies). The main results from the model are: 1. If we expect the growth of the energy consumption till 2050, then through global energy system has enough resources the time of the cheap energy is gone. 2. Global constraint on emissions have big impact on energy sector development around the world and make nuclear and renewable energy technologies the most efficient mean to solve the pollution problems. 3. Cheap oil, gas, and coal resources will be to large extent exhausted till 2050, so prices from 2010 till 2050 should double. 4. The most usable renewable resources are traditional hydropower, biomass and wind energy.] Conclusions [The presented model allows seeing and analysing tendencies in the global energy developments till 2050. It makes it possible to see efficient ways for usage of regional and global energy resources not only in the future, but also in the present.] References [Belyaev L.S., Marchenko O.V., Filippov S.P., Solomin S.V., Stepanova T.B., Kokorin A.L.: World energy and sustainable development transformation. – Novosibirsk: Nauka, 2000 {Беляев Л.С., Марченко О.В., Филиппов С.П., Соломин С.В., Степанова Т.Б., Кокорин А.Л.: Мировая энергетика и переход к устойчивому развитию. – Новосибирск. Наука, 2000} Filippov S.P., Lebedev A.V. Instruments for global energy research. ISEM SB RAS. Preprint Nr.3. Irkutsk, 2003. {Филиппов С.П., Лебедев А.В. Вычислительные инструменты для глобальных энергетических исследований: Обзор / ИСЭМ СО РАН. Препринт № 3. - Иркутск, 2003}. Filippov S.P., Lebedev A.V. Multiregional dynamical model for global energy system. ISEM SB RAS. Preprint Nr.4. Irkutsk, 2003 {Филиппов С.П., Лебедев А.В. Мультирегиональная динамическая модель мировой энергетической системы / ИСЭМ СО РАН. Препринт № 4. - Иркутск, 2003}. Filippov S.P., Lebedev A.V. Programm codes for global energy research. ISEM SB RAS. Preprint Nr.5. Irkutsk, 2003{Филиппов С.П., Лебедев А.В. Программный комплекс для глобальных энергетических исследований / ИСЭМ СО РАН. Препринт № 5. - Иркутск, 2003}.]