Technical Status Report
May 5, 2006 (Updates & changes to sections of this report from earlier status reports are noted in bold italics.)
Contact: Tom Moore, Technical Coordinator (970.491.8837) or mooret@cira.colostate.edu
Background
The purpose of this ongoing series of status reports is to periodically describe what and when technical work
products from WRAP Forums and Workgroups or other sources will be available for use in the regional haze
planning process through 2006 and into early 2007. Progress on regional haze planning and technical work to
date indicates that some WRAP technical activities to support the 2007 plan development process will need to
continue into the first half of 2007, and that technical support will need to continue after mid-2007. Those
activities through mid-2007 are reflected in updates to Sections A and B of this document. As planned, a
major milestone encompassing regional technical work will be the delivery of the complete picture of that
work in October 2006. Descriptions of the individual projects are in the WRAP workplan, and methods and
details about the data (how and why the work was done) are also available from contractor reports or websites,
or from the Technical Coordinator. This update is specific to work accomplished through April 2006, and
describes plans to date for future technical analyses.
The status report is organized as follows:
 Section A - Access and content of existing data nodes;
 Section B - Progress updates for key existing and planned work product deliverables from Forums and
Workgroups, summarized from the project descriptions in the current WRAP Workplan Update for 2005-07
http://wrapair.org/WRAP/documents/05-07Workplan_final.pdf (a workplan update for 2006-07 is in
preparation);
 Section C - The Regional Modeling Center 2006 schedule and workplan; and
 Section D - Highlights and brief descriptions of selected specific analyses and projects related to regional
haze planning accomplished in the past few months.
A)
Existing Data Nodes
Visibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS) - http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/ – this system
provides ongoing access to IMPROVE and other visibility monitoring data, research results, and special studies
related to the Regional Haze Rule. Downloads of the IMPROVE data, custom displays of spatial, chemical, and
temporal patterns, as well as information about applying monitoring data for regional haze planning are
available. This information will be used in the Phase II Attribution of Haze (AoH) project during 2005-06. This
system was originally sponsored by the Ambient Monitoring & Reporting Forum, and currently has national
coverage through sponsorship by all 5 RPOs through September 2006. The complete preliminary dataset from
Regional Haze Rule Baseline Period (2000-04) as measured by the IMPROVE monitoring network has been
posted, and Class I area-specific data are available for review, including 5-year averages of the Best and Worst
20% visibility days and glide paths from baseline period averages to EPA default natural conditions.
The IMPROVE Steering Committee has approved a revised light extinction equation, and VIEWS staff are
working to implement that option for calculating deciviews and other haze metrics using either the
old/existing equation (circa 1988) or the revised (circa December 2005) light extinction equation. Both of
those options should be available in April 2006. In addition, there is an analysis project underway to assess
and possibly improve the default EPA natural conditions estimates, incorporating the revised IMPROVE
light extinction equation and improved statistical analyses, to cover the greater number of IMPROVE
monitoring sites and the associated increase in the available data. Discussions on this analysis project and
the consequences of the results will be hosted by the Attribution of Haze Workgroup and the Technical
Oversight Committee during the next few months.
Causes of Haze Assessment project (CoHA) - http://coha.dri.edu/index.html - this ongoing project of the
Ambient Monitoring & Reporting Forum project is completing detailed analyses of IMPROVE and
meteorological monitoring data in the WRAP region. Work to date includes multi-year back trajectory wind
plots for each monitored Class I area, trajectory regression analyses’ results used in the Phase I AoH project, and
extensive descriptive information about the monitoring data and each Class I area. Planned work for 2005-06
will be used include trend analyses and receptor modeling using the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF)
technique to relate source types and regions to the 2000-04 baseline period monitoring data, also to be used in
AoH Phase II.
Analyses of the long-term trends in the IMPROVE visibility data for monitoring sites with 8 to 16 years of
record are available at: http://coha.dri.edu/. The CoHA project team is completing the 5-year (2000-04) back
trajectory analyses for each IMPROVE site for various air quality conditions (worst/best visibility days, worst
sulfate days, et cetera), expanding the 3-year trajectories already complete at:
http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html. CoHA is also completing an analysis of
“was 2002 a typical/representative meteorological year”; that analysis and the 5-year trajectories will be used
in the AoH Phase II project. Also, the CoHA team is actively working on applying the PMF receptor
modeling technique to 2000-04 IMPROVE data in the WRAP region, with the goal of identifying source types
at the Class I areas, and specifically separating and determining the amount of smoke from fire emissions
versus urban carbon emission. The PMF analyses support the May 23-24 Smoke/Carbon/Dust Workshop and
AoH Phase II.
Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) - http://wrapedms.org/default_login.asp - this ongoing project
of the Emissions Forum is an emission inventory data warehouse and web-based GIS application that provides a
consistent, complete, and regional approach to emissions data tracking to meet the requirements for SIP and TIP
development, periodic progress reviews, and data updates. The EDMS serves as a central regional emissions
inventory database for all types of emissions, and uses associated software to facilitate the data collection efforts
for regional modeling, emissions tracking and associated data analyses. Baseline and future years’ emissions
data will be stored and accessed here, with the displays and regional summaries to be used in AoH Phase II.
Use of the EDMS is based on user registration and periodic listserv updates, requires a password for ad-hoc data
queries, but is open to all interested users.
The EDMS has been updated with 2002 point, area, mobile, and fire emissions, and EDMS will continue to
have additional inventory data added over the next several months. Testing of the EDMS for functionality
and operational performance was completed by the end of 2005. The EDMS is being revised by the
contractor to address concerns and problems found in the testing. The 2018 emissions inventories are being
loaded into EDMS. The Emissions Forum is developing and implementing a plan to operate the EDMS in a
cost-efficient and effective fashion.
Regional Modeling Center (RMC) - http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ - the objective of this ongoing project of
the Air Quality Modeling Forum is to provide the necessary technical and policy tools needed by states and
tribes for the Regional Haze Rule. The substantial effort by the RMC is intended to support State and Tribal
agencies in conducting regional haze analyses in the western United States. This analysis is being performed by
operating regional scale, three-dimensional regulatory air quality models that simulate the emissions, chemical
transformations, and transport of criteria pollutants and fine PM and consequent effects on visibility in Class I
areas in the WRAP region and across North America. Responsibilities of the RMC include: 1) Emissions
processing and modeling; 2) Air quality and visibility modeling simulations; 3) Analysis, display, and reporting
of modeling results, and 4) Storage/quality assurance of the modeling input and output files. The RMC offers
periodic listserv updates, provides data and technology transfer support, and uses monthly conference calls to
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review work products. Results from the RMC work will be used extensively in the AoH Phase II project. A
complete status report on RMC activities for the March 2004 through February 2005 period was completed in
August, and a report on 2002 base year “model performance evaluation” simulation work performed by the
RMC during 2005 is also complete, see:
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/final/2002_MPE_report_main_body_FINAL.pdf.
The RMC has developed a detailed workplan outline and budget for 2006 to largely complete regional
modeling work as well as supporting the BART modeling needs of the states, see additional information in
Section C, below. The RMC completed 3 regional modeling runs in late 2005, 1) base02a – modeling actual
2002 emissions data as of August 2005; 2) plan02a – modeling typical emission for the 2000-04 time period,
that included 2002 updated final actual emissions as of November 2005 for most source categories, but used
2000-04 fire emissions estimates and average operation factors for power plants; and 3) base18a – modeling
2018 base case emissions projections (rules/permits on the books as of 12/04) for anthropogenic sources, with
fire and other “quasi-natural” sources held constant. These modeling results were presented at the January
10-11 WRAP workshop in Tucson – see: http://wrapair.org/forums/ioc/meetings/060110m/index.html. The
“b” versions of each of those simulations are planned for March-May 2006.
In addition, the RMC website at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/index.shtml has been reorganized for
easier use. The regional visibility modeling results are available under the “Visibility Modeling” tab,
addressing CMAQ and CAMx results from various modeling scenarios, source apportionment analyses, and
sensitivity studies. The table at the top of this page under this tab allows the user access to a specifications
sheet for each modeling run, the emissions associated with that run, and the analysis and findings. The
RMC has added a “BART CalPuff Modeling” tab at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/bart.shtml. The RMC
is supporting and tracking technology transfer of data and modeling tools through the “Data Transfer” tab
at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/data_transfer.shtml.
Technical Support System (TSS) - http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/wraptss/ - the TSS is being developed as a
project of the Attribution of Haze Workgroup (http://wrapair.org/forums/aoh/TSS/index.html) to provide a
single portal to support regional haze planning using the regional technical data, analytical results, and tools
prepared by the WRAP’s Forums and Workgroups. The key data and summary results displayed on the TSS
are intended to support the air quality planning needs of western state and tribes, and will be maintained and
updated to support both the implementation of regional haze plans and other Western air quality analysis and
management needs. The primary initial and ongoing purpose of the TSS is to be the one-stop shop for
access, visualization, analysis, and retrieval of the technical data and regional analytical results prepared by
WRAP Forums and Workgroups in support of regional haze planning in the West. The TSS specifically
summarizes results and consolidates information about air quality monitoring, meteorological and receptor
modeling data analyses, emissions inventories and models, and gridded air quality/visibility regional
modeling simulations. These copious and diverse data are integrated for application to air quality planning
purposes by prioritizing and refining key information and results into explanatory tools. Finally, a major goal
of the TSS is to make the standard and user-specified maps, charts, tables, and graphs easily available for
export, while maintaining the original source data available for verification and subsequent analysis through
the TSS.
There is active collaboration with the Implementation Workgroup and all the WRAP Forums and
Workgroups as to the content, format, and level of information detail on the TSS. The first TSS
Training/Orientation session was held on April 27th. The TSS is built upon the foundation and uses tools and
techniques developed for the VIEWS system described above; the WRAP plans to fund the TSS on an
ongoing basis and maintain support of VIEWS functions through the TSS.
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B) Overview of WRAP 2005-07 Key Technical Deliverables (May 2006 update, gray cells complete)
Time
Frame
Responsible Group/Subject
Emissions Forum
Fire Forum (Phase 2 EI project)
Deliverable (completion target month)
 Operational version of Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) with actual 2002 EI for WRAP
region. (done in September)
Final 2002 complete fire EI – actual 2002 emissions, stored in EDMS. (completed July)
Monitoring Forum (CoHA
project)
 Source apportionment of each state’s major emissions source category impacts at Class I areas in AoH
report. (done)
 Descriptive analyses of 2002 monitored impact at Class I areas in AoH report. (done)
Modeling Forum (source
apportionment project)
 Source apportionment of each state’s major emissions source category impacts at Class I areas in AoH
report. (done)
 Initial source apportionment of each state’s natural and manmade emissions at Class I areas in AoH
report. (done)
Attribution of Haze WG
 AoH Phase I Report complete – Integrated “weight of evidence” source attribution for each state’s
emissions source category impacts at Class I areas, from TSSA and CoHA projects, based on 2002
“interim” (not EDMS) EIs. (done)
Tribal Data Development WG
 Tribal monitoring data analysis from CoHA project for tribal Class I areas in AoH report. (done)
Stationary Sources Forum
 List of BART-eligible sources (done)
 Emission Inventory and Control Technology Technical Support project underway (scheduled work
completed)
Dust Emissions Forum
 Phase 2 windblown dust emissions inventory model completed, evaluated, and EI included in
subsequent modeling analyses. (done)
 Host dust control measures workshop (done)
2005 Q2
4
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
Emissions Forum
 Onroad, off-road, and road dust 2002, 08, 13, and 18 EI updates complete (completed October).
 2002 and 2018 offshore shipping, locomotives, and planes’ EIs complete (complete in early November)
 Complete second round of testing on EDMS performance (to be completed in December)
Fire Forum (Phase 3 EI project)
 2000-04 baseline period fire EI based on modifying 2002 actual emissions developed for haze planning
purposes. (modeling files and summary data delivered mid-October, final report Spring 2006)
Monitoring Forum (CoHA
project)
 Continuing development of conceptual models and processing of additional IMPROVE data as inputs
for the AoH Phase II project. (ongoing)
Modeling Forum (2002 base
case and source apportionment
modeling projects)
 Modeling performance evaluation using final actual 2002 emissions from SSJF/EF projects, and
compared to monitoring data, as inputs to AoH Phase II. (completed November)
 Boundary conditions and new emissions estimates from WRAP Fire Forum, other RPOs, Canada, and
Mexico updated. (completed September)
 Source apportionment underway, will not be complete until 2006, when a “final” 2002 actual emissions
are run for Regional Haze Plans (mid-2006)
Attribution of Haze WG
 AoH Phase II/Technical Support System = process 2002 source attribution report. (to be completed
October 2006)
Tribal Data Development WG
 Tribal monitoring needs draft report from CoHA project for tribal Class I areas. (done)
 Review, improve, project emissions inventories of point and oil/gas sources on tribal lands. (done)
Stationary Sources Forum
 Complete review and QA of the 2002 point and area source inventory. (done)
Mobile Sources Forum
 Continuing work on off-road retrofit program.
Dust Emissions Forum
 Establish a preliminary definition of dust and release for public review.
 Recommendations on appropriate size distribution of fine versus coarse dust emissions.
In and Near Forum
 Summarize PM10 SIPs for local sources and their transferability to Class I areas. (done)
Emissions Forum
 Evaluate EDMS testing results and develop action plan for ongoing management.
 Supervise contractor operation and needed improvements to EDMS.
Fire Emissions Forum (Phase 4
EI project)
 Identify inputs and scope out 2018 fire EI scenarios for haze planning purposes - 2018 fire EIs will
consist of 3 scenarios, using as inputs: ag burning rules on the books, applying Emissions Reduction
Techniques for prescribed fire, and forecasts for wildfire/wildland fire use/prescribed fire from Federal
Land Managers. (to be completed Spring 2006)
Monitoring Forum (CoHA)
 PMF analyses and processing of additional data as inputs to AoH Phase II. (to be complete mid-2006)
Modeling Forum (2018 base
case modeling project)
 Modeling evaluations (version A) using 2004-04 baseline period emissions as input to AoH Phase II
(December)
 Modeling evaluations (version A) using 2018 base case emissions as inputs to AoH Phase II (January)
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Attribution of Haze WG
 Publish preliminary IMPROVE monitoring data from 2000-04 for glide path. (November)
 Publish proposed Weight of Evidence source attribution method for assessing Reasonable Progress,
using technical monitoring, emissions, and modeling data
Stationary Sources Forum
 Complete work on first version of oil/gas and point/area source 2018 base case EI projection scenarios.
(October/November)
Emissions Forum
 Complete continuing needed improvements to EDMS.
 Supervise contractor operation and needed improvements to EDMS.
 EDMS updated with 2018 base case EI data. (March-April)
Fire Emissions Forum
 Phase 4 EI project - 2018 fire EI scenarios for haze planning purposes - 2018 fire EIs will consist of 3
scenarios, using as inputs: ag burning rules on the books, applying Emissions Reduction Techniques for
prescribed fire, and forecasts for wildfire/wildland fire use/prescribed fire from Federal Land
Managers. (to be completed Spring 2006)
 Fire Tracking System development – scoping study to determine best existing system in use now, and
needed modifications. (March)
Monitoring Forum (CoHA
project)
 Continue work on products for AoH Phase II report.
 Work on analyzing final regulatory dataset from IMPROVE 2000-04 monitoring data.
Modeling Forum
 Modeling evaluations (version B) using 2004-04 baseline period emissions as input to AoH Phase II
(April)
 Source apportionment (PSAT modeling) of each state’s 2000-04 major emissions source category
impacts at Class I areas for AoH Phase II report. (to be complete in July)
 Modeling evaluations (version B) using 2018 base case emissions as inputs to AoH Phase II (May)
 Source apportionment (PSAT modeling) of each state’s 2018 base case B major emissions source
category impacts at Class I areas for AoH Phase II report. (to be complete in July)
 Develop 2006-07 work plan.
 Begin preparation of documentation for BART CalPuff modeling support.
 Continue emissions processing to correct 2018 base case and develop 2018 control strategy EIs.
Attribution of Haze WG
 AoH Phase II – continue development of integrated Weight of Evidence source attribution method
example graphics. (March)
 TSS alpha version roll-out. (January)
Stationary Sources Forum
 Determine interest in evaluating regional backstop or active cap and trade program for point sources.
 Continue work on BART analysis coordination, control strategy development and evaluation.
Dust Emissions Forum
 Complete definition of dust
 Begin PM10 Dust Regional Haze Pilot SIP project for Salt Creek Wilderness in SE New Mexico.
2006 Q1
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Emissions Forum
 Complete continuing needed improvements to EDMS.
 Supervise contractor operation and needed improvements to EDMS.
 EDMS updated with 2018 base case EI data. (May-June)
Fire Emissions Forum
 Complete Phase 4 EI project.
 Fire Tracking System development ongoing.
Monitoring Forum (CoHA)
 PMF results and other work products to support AoH report.
Modeling Forum (2018 control
 Continuing source apportionment of each state’s 2018 major emissions source category impacts at
Class I areas, associated with control strategy scenarios.
 Source apportionment of each state’s natural and manmade emissions at Class I areas.
 Conduct sensitivity modeling results from applying BART EGU presumptive limits for WRAP region,
and other similar modeling studies.
2006 Q2 strategy modeling project)
2006 Q3
Attribution of Haze WG
 Continue work on AoH Phase II/TSS projects.
 TSS training/orientation session. (April 27th)
Stationary Sources Forum
 Determine interest in evaluating regional backstop or active cap and trade program for point sources.
 Begin work on refining Oil & Gas emissions inventories.
 Continuing emissions analyses for 2018 control strategy scenarios.
Dust Emissions Forum
 Continue work on PM10 Dust Regional Haze Pilot SIP project for Salt Creek Wilderness in SE New
Mexico, incorporating Dust Definition project methodology.
Emissions Forum
 Supervise contractor operation and needed improvements to EDMS.
Fire Emissions Forum
 Fire Tracking System development ongoing.
Monitoring Forum (CoHA)
 Complete work products to support AoH report.
Modeling Forum (2018 control
strategy modeling project)
 Continue control strategy modeling analyses of sources’ and each state’s 2018 major emissions source
category at Class I areas, associated with control strategy scenarios.
 Complete source apportionment of each state’s natural and manmade emissions at Class I areas.
Attribution of Haze WG
 Complete work on AoH Phase II projects, integrating work products from EF, MF, AMRF, SSJF,
FEJF, TDDWG, and DEJF for IWG use through the TSS. (September-October)
Stationary Sources Forum
 Continuing emissions analyses for 2018 control strategy scenarios.
Dust Emissions Forum
 Complete work on PM10 Dust Regional Haze Pilot SIP project for Salt Creek Wilderness in SE New
Mexico, incorporating Dust Definition methodology, incorporate results on TSS.
Emissions Forum
 Supervise contractor operation and needed improvements to EDMS.
Fire Emissions Forum
 Fire Tracking System development ongoing.
2006 Q4
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Monitoring Forum (CoHA)
 CoHA operating at maintenance level.
Modeling Forum (2018
control strategy modeling)
 Continue control strategy modeling analyses of sources’ and each state’s 2018 major emissions source
category at Class I areas, associated with control strategy scenarios.
Attribution of Haze WG
 Release version 1 of fully operational TSS and data results (October)
 Routine operation of TSS (ongoing, with periodic data and version updates).
Stationary Sources Forum
 Continuing work on control program development.
Dust Emissions Forum
Emissions Forum
 Supervise contractor operation and needed improvements to EDMS.
Fire Emissions Forum
 Routine operation of Fire Tracking System.
Monitoring Forum (CoHA)
 CoHA operating at maintenance level.
Modeling Forum (2018
2007 Q1 control strategy modeling)
 Regional modeling simulation of visibility improvement from BART engineering analyses.
 Complete regional modeling for final haze control strategies, final report, end RMC project as presently
constituted.
Attribution of Haze WG
 Routine operation of TSS (ongoing, with periodic data and version updates).
Stationary Sources Forum
 Complete work on control program development
Dust Emissions Forum
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C)
Regional Modeling Center Schedule and Workplan for March 2006 through Spring 2007
The Regional Modeling Center’s schedule for producing modeling result over the next several months is
summarized below. Dates are subject to change. See: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml for the
specifications for each modeling scenario, the emissions inputs, and analysis of the visibility/air quality
modeling results.
Modeling Scenario Name Purpose
Target Completion Date
Clean02a
Evaluate contribution of natural emissions to
May 2006
modeled visibility/air quality
Base02b
Evaluate model performance, uses actual 2002
May 2006
emissions
Plan02b
Final 2000-04 baseline period modeling run
May 2006
Plan02b source
Identify contributions of states’ source
July 2006
apportionment
categories to 2000-04 haze at each Class I area,
using actual 2002 emissions for all categories
except fire, which uses 2000-04 “typical,
average” emissions
Base18b
Final 2018 base case projection modeling run
May 2006
Base18b source
Identify contributions of states’ source
July 2006
apportionment
categories to 2018 haze at each Class I area,
using emissions projected for growth, control,
and rules on the books
Sensitivity18a
Apply BART Rule EGU “presumptive limits”
July 2006
and “SO2 Annex” to Base18b emissions and
test for visibility improvement
PMBART18
Zero-out run for PM emissions from BART
July 2006
sources using regional model
VOCBART18
Zero-out run for VOC emissions from BART
July 2006
sources using regional model
Sensitivity18b
Test suites of emissions reductions under
Early Fall 2006
consideration by WRAP region states
Additional runs Fall 2006 and Winter 2006/07 to be determined
2006 Modeling Plan
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Regional Modeling and Analysis to
Support the Development of December 2007 Regional Haze SIPs/TIPs
March 27, 2006
1. Purpose
a. Complete regional and source-specific modeling analyses of stationary sources required by BART
and Regional Haze Rules
b. Complete regional modeling analyses needed for WRAP region to address weight-of-evidence and
implementation plan needs for jurisdictions submitting haze plans in December 2007
c. Complete modeling analyses to evaluate the visibility improvements from air pollution control rules,
strategies, and programs adopted or proposed for application by 2018 in the WRAP region, for
sulfate, nitrate, organic and elemental carbon contributions to visibility impairment.
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2. Introduction
a. Background
i. Overview of Regional Haze Rule
ii. BART discussion
iii. Overview of WRAP
iv.
Overview of RMC Responsibilities
v. Modeling Components of December 2007 Regional Haze Plans
b. Topics and Purpose of Regional Simulations – in sequence
i. Identify RMC work on BART Modeling Analyses
ii. Perform other source-receptor visibility culpability assessments
1.
Source Attribution Approaches
2.
Zero-Out Modeling of Impacts (Brute Force)
iii. PM Source Apportionment Modeling of Impacts (See Appendix A)
iv.
Evaluate point source emissions reductions options using control strategy analyses for EGU
presumptive limits and possibly alternative Emissions Management scenarios
v. Perform final regional modeling analysis of 2002 (base02b) and 2000-04 baseline
(planning02b) periods
vi.
Simulate visibility changes from final 2018 “base case emissions projections” (base18b) and
2018 control scenarios to support regional haze implementation plans
vii.
Evaluate model response to emissions at clean conditions’ levels
viii. Evaluate visibility improvements from fire management and other emissions control programs
in regional sensitivity analyses as resources allow
ix. Last in the regional modeling sequence, evaluate visibility improvements from all control
strategies, rules, and control programs identified by WRAP region States, to be called the “2018
Final All Control Strategies” run
c. Presentation of Results
i. WRAP RMC Simulation Specifications
ii. 2018 Uniform Rate of Progress model test following EPA guidance
iii. 2018 changes in controllable (anthropogenic) components of visibility
iv.
2018 changes by species concentrations (e.g., SO4, NO3, etc.)
v. Other to be determined
vi.
Remaining Major RMC Report Deliverables
1.
2006 Report (report in Fall 2006)
2.
Project Final Report (complete final report by Spring 2007)
3. Types of RMC BART Modeling Assistance – in sequence
a. RMC CALPUFF Modeling Assistance – purpose is to have States identify subject-to-BART list of
sources for those States wishing RMC to conduct CALPUFF modeling for them – AK, AZ, NM, NV,
SD, UT
i. Specifically identify individual States’ BART analysis work to date and planned activities &
reference existing CalPuff BART Modeling Protocols
ii. For States doing their own CalPuff subject-to-BART modeling – RMC will provide 2001-2003
MM5 data formatted for CalMet as desired
1.
Develop windows of MM5 data in CALMET format for four separate modeling domains
at 36 km for 2001 through 2003 (domains will include States identified plus neighboring
States’ Class I areas, centered on:
a. Arizona + New Mexico
b. Utah + Nevada
c. South Dakota
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d. Montana
For States NOT doing their own CalPuff subject-to-BART modeling (AK, AZ, NM, NV, SD,
and UT) – RMC will:
1.
Develop a WRAP region CALPUFF Modeling Protocol for States needing that support –
separate protocol for Alaska CALPUFF modeling (see protocol outline in Appendix B).
Interact with States on analysis.
2.
Prepare CALMET modeling databases for 2001, 2002 and 2003
3.
Conduct CALPUFF threshold/culpability/subject-to-BART modeling for all WRAP
region States not doing it on their own
4.
Publish results of #3, above so States can complete BART engineering analyses to
estimate likely source-specific NOx and SOx BART emissions reductions
5.
Conduct CalPuff modeling to estimate benefits of source-specific BART emissions
reductions
6.
Publish results
iv.
Identification of BART sources in 2002 SMOKE database
1.
Cross reference list BART to IDA
b. Exemption Modeling – use the regional models to screen BART-eligible sources for PM and VOC
emissions
i. Assume doubled annual average approximates maximum 24-hour actual emission rate
ii. SMOKE for BART Sources VOC and PM only
iii. Subtract SMOKE BART from fully merged file to make Zero-Out BART emission inputs
iv.
Add SMOKE BART to fully merged to make Double BART emission inputs
v. CMAQ run with Zero-Out BART emissions
vi.
Post-processing visibility impacts at Class I Areas
iii.
4. RMC BART, Regional Sensitivity, Regional Control Strategy Modeling – in sequence
a. Needs from States identified in #2 about for RMC BART Modeling Analysis and subsequent
Regional BART and Alternative Programs Modeling Analysis
i. States identify their own BART-eligible Sources in priority order
1.
Confirm 2018 source-specific emissions data suitable for CalPuff subject-to-BART
analysis identified in #2.a.iii.3, above
2.
Provide estimate of 2018 pollutant/stack-specific and State-wide emission reductions (for
QA)
3.
RMC to identify timeline and formats for data
b. Modeling Platforms
i. CAMx vs. CMAQ differences
ii. PSAT methodology
c. RMC Planned Runs
i. Final 2002 base case regional modeling analysis (base02b)
1.
CMAQ at 36km, results at each Class I area
ii. Simulate visibility in 2000-04 baseline period using final “baseline period emissions”
(planning02b)
1.
CMAQ at 36km, results at each Class I area as inputs to EPA guidance-specified method
for forecasting future visibility conditions
2.
CAMx with PSAT to identify contributions of sources to 2000-04 baseline period
visibility impairment, including all other planning02b emissions per Appendix A
iii. Simulate visibility changes from final 2018 “base case emissions projections” (base18b)
1.
CMAQ at 36km, results at each Class I area as inputs to EPA guidance-specified method
for forecasting future visibility conditions
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2.
iv.
v.
vi.
CAMx with PSAT to identify contributions of sources to 2018 visibility impairment,
including all other base18b emissions per Appendix A
2018 Point and Area Source Control Scenarios to support regional haze implementation plans –
(sensitivity18a,b,c)
1.
Using BART Rule NOx and SOx “presumptive limits” for emissions from EGUs, rerun
SMOKE for point sources
a.
Merge with other emissions from base18b
b.
CMAQ 36 km 2018 point source control case
c.
Visibility projections
d.
Report on results
2.
If chosen by States to pursue, perform a Cumulative Assessment of Alternative Program
options, either Trading or Backstop Trading, rerun SMOKE for point sources
a.
Assume WRAP/States provide source-by-source emissions allocation numbers
b.
Merged with other emissions from base18b
c.
CMAQ 36 km 2018 point source control case
d.
Visibility projections
e.
Report on results
3.
Control strategy sensitivity run based on input on from individual states on their plans
a.
Modify individual point and area emissions sources as needed and merge with other
emissions from base18b
b.
Include effects of California NAAQS control strategies – if timing allows, if not, in
“final18control”
c.
Effects of 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 attainment/reasonable further progress plans in
nonattainment areas
d.
CMAQ 36 km 2018 point source control case
e.
Visibility projections
f.
Report on results
2018 Final All Control Strategies (final18control)
a.
Last run, to be completed at the end of all other modeling runs
b.
Include all emissions reductions that States plan to adopt in their haze
implementation plans
c.
For each State, use State-provided emissions allocation numbers for individual
BART sources and/or individual sources in an Alternative Point Source Control
programs - rerun SMOKE for 2018 point sources
d.
Include effects of California NAAQS control strategies if these were not modeled in
“control18c”
e.
Merged with other emissions from base18b
f.
Visibility projections
g.
Report on results
2018 Regional Sensitivity Scenarios (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are identified as definitely needed in that
order, others as resources allow/need indicates)
1.
Clean Conditions Scenarios
a.
Natural Emissions Only
i. Actual 2002 wildfires, biogenics, windblown dust (modeling complete,
analysis underway)
2.
Ammonia emissions sensitivity (2) - % increase and % decrease regionally
3.
Road dust emissions sensitivity (zero-out run regionally)
4.
Fire - alternative future emissions scenarios
5.
Sensitivity of International Transport and Off-Shore Marine Emissions Sensitivity,
including alternative growth and control options for marine vessels
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6.
7.
8.
Alternative growth/control assumptions for Canada and Mexico
Clean Conditions Scenarios
a.
Natural Emissions Only
i. 2000-04 baseline wildfire, biogenics, only non-agricultural dust - 2002
complete (vi.1.a.i, above) – answer needed?
ii. GEOS-CHEM boundary conditions with no anthropogenic emissions – answer
needed?
Separate Dust Sensitivity – none planned
5. References
Appendix A: White Paper on PM Source Apportionment
(http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/PSAT_White_Paper_111405_final_draft1.pdf) and Modeling Plan
for using CAMx with PSAT
Applies to 2 regional modeling runs:


planning02b case – represents emissions during 2000-04 regional haze baseline period – see
specifications sheet
base18b case – represents emissions forecasts to 2018 accounting for growth and control programs on
the books through 2004, includes corrections from base18a run – see specifications sheet
Tracers - run PSAT tracers for sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) families - source regions, emissions
processing steps and file formats are shown below
6 Emissions Categories






Point (including stationary offshore)
 All inland point sources + Pacific point
 Gulf point
Anthropogenic Fires (WRAP only)
 WRAP agricultural fires and anthropogenic prescribed fires
Total mobile (on-road, off-road, including planes, trains, ships in/near port, off-shore shipping)
 WRAP on road
 CENRAP on road
 Eastern RPOs on road
 Non US on road mobile
 All Off road mobile with monthly or seasonal inventory
 All Off road mobile with annual inventory
Natural emissions (natural fire, WRAP only, biogenics)
 WRAP wild fires
 WRAP non federal rangeland and natural prescribed fires
 WRAP wildland fire use
 All biogenics
Elevated fire sources in other RPOs
 VISTAS and CENRAP fires
 Canada fires
Everything else (area, all dust, fugitive ammonia, non-elevated fire sources in other RPOs)
 CENRAP area fires
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








Windblown dust
CENRAP ammonia
WRAP ammonia
All area sources
All road dust
All fugitive dust
Gulf offshore area
Pacific offshore marine
WRAP oil and gas
Emissions Processing Approach






Stationary points:
o Process through SMOKE; generate elevated ASCII + low-level CAMx emission files (do not
merge low-level with any other sources)
Anthropogenic fires:
o Process through SMOKE; generate CMAQ 3-d emissions files
o Use CMAQ2CAMx converter to get binary elevated and low-level CAMx point source files
(do not merge low-level with any other sources)
Total mobile:
o Process through SMOKE; run SMKMERGE to merge all sources; run SMK2EMISS to get
CAMx emission files.
Natural Emissions:
o Process fires through SMOKE; generate CMAQ 3-d emissions files
o Merge natural fires with biogenics
o Use CMAQ2CAMx converter to get binary elevated and low-level CAMx point source files
Elevated fire sources in other RPO:
o Process fires through SMOKE; generate CMAQ 3-d emissions files
o Use CMAQ2CAMx converter to get binary elevated and low-level CAMx point source files
Everything else:
o Process through SMOKE; run SMKMERGE to merge all sources; run SMK2EMISS to get
CAMx emission files.
Families:
Sulfur – 2 tracers [SO2i Primary SO2 emissions; and PS4i Particulate sulfate ion from primary emissions plus
secondarily formed sulfate]
Nitrogen – 7 tracers [RGNi Reactive gaseous nitrogen including primary NOx (NO + NO2) emissions plus
nitrate radical (NO3), nitrous acid (HONO) and dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5); TPNi Gaseous peroxyl acetyl
nitrate (PAN) plus peroxyl nitric acid (PNA); NTRi Organic nitrates (RNO3); HN3i Gaseous nitric acid
(HNO3); PN3i Particulate nitrate ion from primary emissions plus secondarily formed nitrate; NH3i Gaseous
ammonia (NH3); and PN4i Particulate ammonium (NH4)
Source Areas:


Each WRAP state
Pacific Off-shore Region
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



The group of CENRAP states
Remaining contiguous US East, including Gulf of Mexico
Mexico
Canada
Appendix B: RMC BART CalPuff Modeling Protocol
a. Overview of Approach
Step A – BART Culpability
Analysis (0.5 deciview
threshold for 2002 actual
maximum emissions rate*)
AK
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
Tribal
Step B – BART Engineering
Analysis**
Step C – 2018 Visibility
Benefit Analysis for estimated
emissions reduction from
BART application
Alaska DEC
WRAP RMC
Arizona DEQ
WRAP RMC
All by California ARB
All by Colorado DPH&E: http://apcd.state.co.us/documents/techdocs.html
Idaho DEQ issued RFP with OR and WA to do steps A & C with 12km MM5 met data - ID to do
step B
All by Montana DEQ, using WRAP RMC-prepared 36km met data
Nevada DEP
WRAP RMC
WRAP RMC
New Mexico ED
WRAP RMC
WRAP RMC
All by North Dakota Department of Health
Part of ID RFP with WA to do steps A and C - see ID note above - OR to do step B
South Dakota DENR - 2
WRAP RMC
WRAP RMC
eligible sources, 1 is PM only
Utah DEQ
WRAP RMC
WRAP RMC
Part of ID RFP with OR to do steps A and C - see ID note above - WA to handle B? - the WA
status is unknown because WA and Region X are working together
All by Wyoming DEQ, using a contractor at 12 km or 4 km MM5 met data - 18 eligible sources
All federal sources as far as is known, so these are up to their respective Regional Offices
WRAP RMC
WRAP RMC
*- data to be provided by permitting agency
** - may be based on separate contract support funded by Stationary Sources Joint Forum
b. Meteorological Modeling
i. MM5
ii. CALMET
c. CALPUFF Modeling
i. CALPUFF Inputs
d. Potential BART-Eligible Sources
i. ERG Report
ii. List Sources being Considered
e. Visibility Assessment Approach
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D)
Highlights of selected specific analyses and projects related to regional haze planning (May 2006)
The Dust Emissions Joint Forum’s report: Application of the WRAP's Draft Definition and Categorization of
Dust to the Saguaro West Class I Area, A Case Study was completed in March 2006. See:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/dejf/documents/defdust/Saguaro_West_Case_Study_ReportDRAFT_mar06-.pdf. Please provide comments to Lee Alter.
The Fire Emissions Joint Forum has recently completed review of results for several projects:
Small Fire Sensitivity Modeling, see:
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/results_Base02a12k_vs_Base02a12kfire/RMC_small_fire_sensitivity_final.p
pt The FEJF is considering the next steps in applying these results to the tracking of fire emissions for
regional haze plans.
Evaluation of Fire Tracking Systems, see:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/meetings/060307m/FTS_Eval_1030a.ppt. The FEJF is developing a
white paper to guide the implementation of a WRAP FTS.
Guidance for Regional Coordination of Smoke Management Programs, see:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/meetings/060307m/RCG-Version7Redlined-MtgDraft.pdf
The Stationary Sources Joint Forum is forming workgroups to refine the initial oil and gas emissions
inventories and coordinate BART engineering analyses.
The Ambient Monitoring & Reporting Forum’s Causes of Haze Assessment project is developing a method
and preparing results for receptor modeling analyses using a technique called Positive Matrix Factorization,
see: http://www.coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html for more information. These
monitoring data-based source apportionment results will be used in the AoH Phase II project, and are a
complement to the source apportionment analyses conducted by the Regional Modeling Center using a
regional gridded dispersion model.
16