WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
_________________
COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS
OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUP ON
INTEGRATED OBSERVING SYSTEMS
IMPLEMENTATION/COORDINATION TEAM ON
THE INTEGRATED OBSERVING SYSTEM
Fifth Session
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2
(1.VIII.2008)
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ITEM: 8.2
Original: ENGLISH
(GENEVA, SWITZERLAND, 15-18 SEPTEMBER 2008)
IMPACT STUDIES ON THE GOS
Observing System Experiments and Observing System Simulation Experiments
(Submitted by Jean Pailleux, Météo-France, and Ko Koizumi, JMA)
Summary and purpose of document
A comprehensive review of Observing System Experiments (OSE), of
Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) and other techniques to
assess the impact of observations, was performed in a WMO workshop in
Geneva, from 19 to 21 May 2008. This type of workshop has been normally held
with a four-year frequency and this one was the 4th one in the series. The
present document sums up the main findings of the workshop, conclusions and
recommendations which are worth reporting to OPAG-IOS and CBS.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Meeting is invited to take the draft recommendations into consideration during its
deliberations.
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Appendix:
Workshop Programme
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, p. 2
OBSERVING SYSTEM EXPERIMENTS AND OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS
Report on CBS OSE / OSSE Workshop, May 2008 and
other issues concerning observing system studies
1.
INTRODUCTION
The fourth WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP was held
in Geneva, Switzerland, from 19 to 21 May 2008. The Workshop was organized into four sessions,
(i) global forecast impact studies (including studies with some regional aspects), (ii) regional
aspects of impact studies, (iii) sensitivity, impact assessment techniques, observation network
design studies, and, (iv) workshop conclusions and recommendations. The Workshop programme
is reproduced as Appendix.
The present report documents the main findings of the workshop (section 2) and the main
conclusions and recommendations (section 3).
2.
MAIN FINDINGS OF THE WORKSHOP ON IMPACT STUDIES
As an important tendency of the period 2004-2008 has been the appearance of new
observing systems (especially from satellites), the individual impact of most individual observing
systems has decreased compared to 2004, but the total impact of the combined observing systems
has improved, and the GOS is now more robust because of the variety and quality of instruments
available.
In the previous workshop (Alpbach – 2004), AMSU/A was the satellite instrument largely
used and showing by far the largest impact in global NWP. Nowadays, AMSU/A is even more
largely used (3 or 4 instruments available on current polar orbiting satellites), but progress has
been achieved on other sounders, especially high resolution infra-red sounders (AIRS, IASI), and
the impact of AMSU/A is less dominant. The current ensemble of AMSU/A instruments compared
to one single AIRS or one single IASI instrument scores more. But one single AMSU/A has been
quantified to a slightly smaller value than one AIRS, itself slightly smaller than one IASI.
GPS-RO occultation measurements is a new type of observation which contributes to global
NWP with almost the same magnitude of impact as the satellite sounders (it contributes less than
the sounders at 500hPa, but as much in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere).
Measurements from up to 8 satellites, including the 6 satellites of the COSMIC constellation are
currently assimilated in operational global NWP.
Micro-wave instruments like SSM/I, SSM/IS and AMSU/B are also very important for largescale humidity fields, especially in the tropics.
MODIS winds are very important for polar caps, and their impact spread quickly to midlatitude: the impact is always found significant and positive in the southern hemisphere (and in the
northern hemisphere, most of the time).
Global wind profiles remain the more important information to observe, at least relatively to
the current GOS where the temperature profiles can be indirectly observed by satellite sounders or
GPS radio-occultation (no change with respect to the previous workshop, 4 years ago).
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, p. 3
Over the oceans, high-resolution surface wind observations from satellite instruments,
particularly from scatterometers, are the dominant source of information for the analysis and shortrange forecast of surface wind and surface pressure. However, surface pressure observations at
lower resolution are also important to anchor the surface pressure field in the NWP models.
The previous evaluation is mainly based on a synthesis of all known OSEs, including the
more recent ones presented at the Workshop. It generally puts more weight on medium-range than
on short-range forecasts. Another assessment technique is now used in some NWP centres. It
evaluates the sensitivity of the 24h forecast to each observation through adjoint computations. The
use of such an assessment technique is not systematic enough to be sum in a table. However
some results are documented in the Workshop proceedings (see for example the paper by
Gauthier et al.). They confirm the important impact of the radiosonde network and of the satellite
sounders (microwave and infra-red).
Concerning the impact of some regional observing systems:
-
Radiosondes are relatively more important for regional models than for global models; isolated
profiles of wind and temperature (from radiosondes, AMDAR…) are crucial for NWP.
-
Radiances from geostationary satellites are used in several regional systems with a small
positive impact: there is still a lot of potential to improve the use of this type of data.
-
Wind profilers have shown neutral impact on average: slightly positive in some impact studies,
slightly negative in others. In the workshop of 2004, there were very few results, the impact
was marginal but positive. Quality control and screening procedures in data assimilation is an
issue which affects the results and should be further studied.
-
Radar data and GPS surface observations have demonstrated their positive impacts on
regional assimilation systems, and on some occasions also on global systems.
3.
WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The discussions on the workshop presentations and results took also into account the reports
from the preceding workshops and the latest comments made by ET-EGOS. They led to the following
conclusions and recommendations.
Almost all centres were able to identify positive impacts on forecast skill of practically all parts
of the observing system. This is a testament both to the quality of the Global Observing System and to
the increasing level of maturity of the models and assimilation systems used to ingest the information
for numerical weather prediction. A tremendous activity is now evident in regional NWP using
variational assimilation systems to explore new data types. The methodology has converged, and
rapid progress is being made in many countries.
Several studies seem to indicate that the impact of simultaneous use of mass (temperature)
and wind observations exceeds the sum of the individual impacts in experiments where the two types
of information were used separately, especially in the tropical regions. This will have implications for
the requirements of the observing system of the future as far as the balance between observations
pertaining to the different model variables is concerned.
3.1.
Interaction between NWP centres, data providers and data users
a) Some regional observation data sets appear to be more and more useful for regional NWP
and will soon be useful also for global NWP. It is recommended to implement a global
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, p. 4
exchange of these data sets, starting by (i) Radar data radial wind and reflectivities as the
highest priority, (ii) GPS surface networks as second priority.
b) For polar orbiting satellite instruments, the quick availability of data in real-time NWP is
important for operational NWP (global and regional). It is then recommended to develop
and maintain ad hoc telecommunication means allowing the quick re-transmission of some
data (like the existing systems EARS and AP-RARS).
3.2.
Observational data requirements
a) Because of the lack of profile-type observations in the polar latitudes, every effort should be
made to maintain the existing radiosonde sites, and/or find new systems to observe the
vertical structure of the atmosphere (wind, temperature, humidity) in the polar areas. The
IPY year is an opportunity to have new systems deployed (e.g. drifting balloons and
unmanned aerial vehicles). An exhaustive list of these IPY-specific observations should be
made available to all NWP users, and the extension of some of these systems beyond the
IPY should be considered.
b) One of the highest priority in terms of observation requirements is to add more profile
observations in many data-poor areas. Thus, all the AMDAR opportunities should be used
to improve the wind and temperature data coverage, especially in data-poor areas like the
inter-tropical regions or Central and South Africa. This implies collecting new wind and
temperature profiles at certain airports by equipping some aircraft flying regularly to these
airports, and also to get the data from cruise levels in these regions (which are otherwise
data-poor regions). The long-term future of the AMDAR system is also an issue to consider.
c) Remote radiosonde stations are still of exceptional value (as shown with isolated islands,
ASAP observations and AMMA radiosonde observations). They are essential and should
not be closed although they are the most expensive. We have not yet reached the point of
satellite utilisation that makes it possible to close down such stations. The work done for
the AMMA campaign to re-activate some radiosonde sites and improve the radiosonde
network over West Africa has been extremely beneficial and has shown the large existing
potential for improving data sparse radiosonde networks.
d) The importance of hyperspectral infra-red sounders (with respect to for example AMSU) for
meeting the upper-air observation requirements is a major finding of this 2008 workshop,
with respect to the 2004 workshop. The assimilation of cloudy radiances from these
sounders has started to give very encouraging results.
e) The rapid development of GPS-RO data has led to a situation where their role in
operational global data assimilation is almost as important as the ones of the microwave or
infra-red sounders. However the current satellites providing the GPS-RO measurements
are research satellites with no guarantee of continuity in the future. It becomes very
important to study the issue of future GPS-RO observing systems and their operational role
in the GOS.
f)
The key role of THORPEX, IPY and campaigns such as AMMA, for defining observation
requirements is acknowledged. This includes the activities related to observation targeting.
For each research campaign, all observations should be made available on the GTS
whenever possible depending on the data volumes, for real-time evaluation of these extra
observations, and a list of expected extra observations should be made available to NWP
centres before the campaign.
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, p. 5
3.3.
Proposals for future studies
a) The use of the adjoint technique to compute a FIO (Forecast Impact to Observation, via an
adjoint computation) is highly recommended to complement OSEs and DFS, to all the
centres which can afford it (the adjoint of a forecast model is needed). A somewhat
systematic exchange of results between some centres (as is currently done for monitoring
of observation availability and quality) is also desirable.
b) For studying rapidly and objectively the optimization of stations of the Regional Basic
Synoptic Network in the WMO Regions (especially radiosondes to start with), it is
recommended to study the design of a simple mathematical tool, in the form of a portable
software, based on the optimal estimation theory (along the lines of Pokrovsky, 2008, in the
present proceedings, but using appropriate NWP background statistics rather than
climatology, and taking into account the cost of each individual station).
c) More attention should be given to the forecasts at ranges 7 to 14 days, in some future
impact studies. In this context, some studies should address the requirements in surface
variables such as soil moisture, SST and sea-ice and also the observation requirements in
the stratosphere. Ensemble prediction systems could be a helpful tool for these future
studies.
d) Concerning the stratosphere, the requirements for conventional observations will have to
be studied again in the new context where GPS-RO has started to play a major role, and
when ADM-AEOLUS wind data are likely to be available within few years. The current Joint
OSSE project provides a testbed for studies to answer the general question of observation
requirements in the stratosphere.
e) Consistent with the outcome of the previous Workshop in Alpbach, the Workshop again
recognized the potential value of a properly calibrated OSSE system as a tool to provide
guidance for the evolution of the GOS. The Workshop took note of the emerging Joint
OSSE collaboration that is coordinated within the US by the Joint Center for Satellite Data
Assimilation and that includes input also from ECMWF and KNMI. Hope was expressed
that the Joint OSSE collaboration will be further developed and expanded, and that the
developers of space-based observing systems in particular will participate in funding the
system and will make use of its output in their decision-making processes. One typical
example is GPS radio-occultation which should be studied through OSSEs.
f)
Studies related to surface emissivity over land are highly required for regional NWP in
order to fully exploit the satellite observations. Some are already available, but the efforts
should be increased.
g) The same approach for the organization of future observing systems impact studies and
the reporting on their outcomes should be used again in a similar workshop planned for
2012. However, several other organizations are possible and worth discussing, taking into
account the existence of the THORPEX Programme, active on the same scientific subject.
The ET proposed that CBS-XIV makes a recommendation for holding the 5th NWP “Impact”
workshop in 2012.
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CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, APPENDIX
FOURTH WMO WORKSHOP ON THE IMPACT OF VARIOUS OBSERVING SYSTEMS ON NWP
(Geneva, Switzerland, 19-21 May 2008
PROGRAMME
Monday, 19 May 2008
Welcome and Opening Remarks
1000 am
WMO Secretary-General or representative, John Eyre on the expectations for the
evolution of the GOS, Jean Pailleux to sum up Alpbach and introduce the workshop
format, Miroslav Ondráš on practical aspects (5 to 10’ each).
Session 1a: Global forecast impact studies (chair: Jean Pailleux): 10.30 am – 12.30 pm
1030 am
1100 am
1130 am
1200 am
1230 pm
Erik Andersson (ECMWF)
A summary of OSE and OSSE activities at ECMWF
Alexander Cress (DWD)
Global impact studies at Deutscher Wetterdienst
Florence Rabier (Météo-France)
Global impact studies at Météo-France
Steve Lord (NCEP)
Data Impact Experiments in JCSDA and NCEP / EMC
Lunch
Session 1b: Global forecast impact studies with some regional aspects (Chairperson:
Steve Lord): 1345 pm – 1745 pm
1345 pm
1415 pm
1445 pm
1515 pm
1545 pm
1615 pm
1645 pm
1715 pm
1800 pm
Lars Peter Riishojgaard (JCSDA)
Observing System Simulation Experiments in JCSDA
Richard Dumelow (Met Office)
Impact studies using the Met Office global and regional model
Stéphane Laroche and Real Sarrazin (Service Météorologique Canadien)
Impact studies with observations assimilated over North America and North Pacific
Break
Ko Koizumi (JMA)
Global and regional OSEs at JMA
Peter Steinle (BoM / CAWCR)
Global and regional OSEs in Australia
John Eyre and Stephen English (Met Office)
Impact studies with satellite observations at the Met Office
Zhang Hua and Chen Dehui (CMA - CAMS)
Adaptive estimation and tuning of satellite observation error in assimilation cycle with
GRAPES
Cocktail
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, APPENDIX, p. 2
Tuesday, 20 May 2008
Session 1c: Global forecast impact studies (Co-chairpersons: John Eyre and Lars-Peter
Riishojgaard): 0830 am – 0930 am
0830 am
0835 am
Erik Andersson (ECMWF)
Short presentation on ADM: AEOLUS: an example of a future global observing system
and related preparation studies
Summary and discussion of sessions 1a and 1b (global aspects only)
Session 2a: Regional aspects of impact studies (Chairperson: Ko Koizumi): 0930 am –
1300 pm
0930 am
1000 am
1030 am
1100 am
1130 am
1200 am
1230 pm
1300 pm
Harald Schyberg and Nils Gustafsson (SMHI)
An overview of observation impact studies performed in the HIRLAM community
Claude Fischer (Météo-France)
An overview of observation impact studies performed in the ALADIN community
Break
Hee-Sang Lee (KMA)
Impact of ProbeX-IOP observations on the predictive skill of heavy rainfall in the middle
part of Korea
Warren Tennant (South African Weather Service)
The impact of AMDAR and radiosonde observations on a regional model forecast
system in southern Africa
Alexander Cress (DWD)
Regional impact studies performed in the COSMO community
Dale Barker (NCAR)
Regional data impact studies at NCAR and the JCSDA
Lunch
Session 2b: Regional aspects of impact studies (Co-chairpersons: Harald Schyberg and
Warren Tennant):1415 pm – 1515 pm
1415 pm
Summary and discussion of session 2a and regional aspects of session 1b
Session 3a: Sensitivity, impact assessment techniques, observation network design studies
(Chairperson: Florence Rabier): 1515 pm – Wednesday 0930 am
1515 pm
1545 pm
1615 pm
1645 pm
1715 pm
1745 pm
1815 pm
Carla Cardinali (ECMWF)
A complementary approach to OSE to monitor the observing system contribution to the
forecast error
Break
Ron Gelaro (NASA / GMAO)
Examination of observation impacts derived from OSEs and adjoint models
Rolf Langland (Navy / NRL)
Applications of adjoint-based observation impact monitoring at NRL-Monterey
Jochen Dibbern and Stefan Klink (EUMETNET / EUCOS)
Relevance of impact studies for EUCOS and EUCOS requirements in future studies
Johannes Schmetz (EUMETSAT)
Relevance of NWP impact studies for future satellite programmes
Adjourn
CBS/OPAG-IOS/ICT-IOS-5/Doc. 8.2, APPENDIX, p. 3
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
0830 am
0900 am
Oleg Pokrovsky (MGO, Russian Federation)
Optimising regional radiosonde networks
Pierre Gauthier (UQAM)
Intercomparison of sensitivity to observations in the context of the THORPEX and
T-PARC
Session 3b: Sensitivity, impact assessment techniques, observation network design studies
(Co-chairpersons: Pierre Gauthier and Jim Caughey): 0930 am – 1030 am
0930 am
0935 am
1030 am
Stefan Klink (DWD / EUCOS)
Short presentation of the EUCOS / PREVIEW Data Targeting System (DTS)
Summary and discussion of session 3a
Break
Session 4:
Workshop Conclusions and Recommendations (Co-chairpersons: Erik
Andersson and Jean Pailleux): 1100 am – 1530 pm
1100 am
1230 am
1345 pm
1530 pm
Discussion and Recommendations
Lunch
Conclusions and wrap-up
Closure of the workshop
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