“CLIMATE CHANGE” STUDENT’S FILE (4.5 weeks: 11 March – 10 April) PLAN I. Lead-in Climate Change Awareness Test Reading 1: PICTURING CLIMATE CHANGE II. Obligatory material Reading 2: THE PLANET IN PERIL Reading 3: GLOBAL WARMING? THE DENIERS ARE MY HEROES! III. Additional texts Reading 4: A CLIMATE OF OUR OWN MAKING Reading 5: HOW GREEN IS YOUR PET? Reading 6: THE DANGER OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR RUSSIA К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 1 I. Lead-in Climate Change Awareness Test 1. Do such words as “climate” and “weather” denote the same thing? 2. What is the difference (if any) between such terms as ecology, climatology and environment? 3. What is the mechanism of the greenhouse effect? What are the main greenhouse gases? 4. What determines a certain shift from fossil fuels to alternative fuels in the world? 5. How dangerous is the ozone layer depletion? Why? 6. What is environmental law concerned with? What are the most important environmental treaties? 7. How influential is the IPCC in the sphere of climate change? 8. What are the priorities of Greenpeace? What methods does this organisation use to achieve its goals? 9. What does the term “the Little Ice Age” denote? К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 2 Reading 1: Picturing climate change Stefan Bronnimann Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland The possibility of future climatic changes and man’s interference with climate are not new topics. Concerns of this kind are deep-rooted in our cultures. As a consequence, many aspects of the current debate on climate change and global warming are not unprecedented but have a history of their own. This concerns not only the scientific concepts involved. There is also a history of the public perception of the scientific climate debate, of the attitudes towards human intervention with climate and of the economic, social, and political relevance attributed to the topic. There is one often neglected aspect of the history of the climate change debate, namely how the scientific concept of climate change has been communicated to the public in the past and how it is presently. Climate change research The questions of whether and how climate changes and whether and how man influences climate have been debated by scientists at least since Theophrastus in the 4th century B.C. His works were translated into Latin in the Renaissance period and were influential to the thinking of scientists at that time. Two important lines of debate in the discussion on climatic change up into the 19th century concerned the impact of land-use changes on climate and progressive climate changes. In the early and mid 18th century, climate change was a subject treated by the philosophers of the enlightenment period such as Montesquieu and Hume. More scientific approaches to climate change research started in the second half of the 18th century, in line with efforts in agricultural, forestry and medical research and further advanced by scientific travelling and exchange and the availability of meteorological instruments. A milestone in the history of climate change research and its public awareness was the theory of ice ages which had important implications for climate research in general. It required mechanisms able to explain a large change in mean temperature. This challenge was a trigger for many climate change theories, some of which have influenced the discussion until today. The theory of the CO2 greenhouse effect originated, at least partly, in the debate on the causes of ice ages. Some scientists speculated that lower concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide could have caused ice ages. The processes considered in the 19th century to cause shorter-term climate changes were mainly solar influences and anthropogenic activity, but volcanic forcing and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers were also discussed. Among the anthropogenic influences on climate, the oldest topic is the effect of land-use changes. The debate on this topic became more and more popular during the 19th century when in many European countries deforestation and desertification became politically relevant. Effects of anthropogenic fossil fuel combustion on weather and climate have been considered since the 19th century. By the end of the 19th century, the debates about climate change and anthropogenic influence on climate culminated in a vivid discussion of the causes of the ice ages, the nature of historical climate variability, the possible human influence on future climate, and also the impact of climate change on the evolving economies and societies. The discussion was not confined to the scientific community, but also included political institutions and was carried out in public. Public perception of climate change and anthropogenic influence on climate К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 3 The question of whether climate is changing and whether man is influencing climate is not only or not primarily a scientific one. Climate has always been a matter of vital interest to societies, and so have changes in climatic conditions. However, climate change cannot be perceived by individuals and therefore gives rise to speculation and imagination. Concerning the causes of climatic changes, there has always been the idea in the public consciousness that man influences climate. It was familiar to people in medieval times. For example, extreme weather events were perceived as punishment, and prayers and ceremonies were believed to please God so as to make the weather favourable. Witches were thought to be able to change weather. After the Enlightenment period and during industrialisation, anthropogenic climate change appears in the public perception to diffuse concerns. A good example relates to the ‘year without a summer’, 1816, when in Switzerland some people blamed the modern lightning conductors for causing the endless rainfalls. In these cases the anthropogenic influence was not real, and the people were led by religious or mystic beliefs or simply by superstition and fears, not by scientific arguments. Apart from some scattered quotes in newspaper reports, there is little indication of scientific views on climate change at that time. A public perception of the scientific debate on climate change started only later, probably towards the end of the 19th century which expressed ambivalence towards climate change: there were age-old fears about extremes of climate, but there were also tourist illusions of a warm climate. Despite some fears, climate change was not presented as something entirely negative. There was a strong fascination for the topic and there was a positive judgement of a change towards a warmer climate. In fact, ‘global warming’ has for a long time been considered beneficial to mankind. There was not only a positive judgement, but there were even plans to make the climate warmer. This positive judgement gave way to a predominantly negative one only after the 1950s. Nevertheless, these examples reveal that there are ‘age-old concerns’ about extremes of climate which are part of the cultural background, for scientists as well as for the public. These concerns may also play a role in the current debate on climate change, i.e. the way it is communicated by scientists, activist groups and the media as well as the way it is understood by the public. Today, the climate change issue is illustrated more often with photos of recent extreme weather events. They make allusion to the often heard notion that extreme events have increased in frequency and will further increase in frequency due to climate change. Thus, they imply that we are currently witnessing the start of a new, disastrous climate epoch—of course, the projection of weather extremes into an apocalyptic future climate is not new. The communication is based on the same age-old concerns. It seems that, in the current news market, photos of extreme events sell better than illustrations of a slowly ongoing climate change. Scientists often portray the global warming issue as something unprecedented, and in many respects it certainly is. However, we often forget that the statements of today’s climate researchers add to a debate which has been going on for centuries and in which resound many deep-rooted notions. Ex. 1 Read the text and answer the following questions: 1. How long is the history of climate change research? How did it develop? 2. What theory was a turning point in the history of climate change research? К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 4 3. What is the cause of so many speculations about changes in climatic conditions? 4. How did people account for climate change in the past? 5. When did people’s perception of climate drastically change? 6. How do the media present climate change issue nowadays? 7. What conclusion does the author of the article come to? Ex.2 Look for words and expressions in the text to match the following definitions, translate them, reproduce the context in which they are used in the text. 1. to regard as belonging to, resulting from, produced by 2. knowing something, knowing that something exists and is important, being interested in something 3. a possible effect or a result of an action or a decision 4. to form an opinion about something without knowing all the details or facts 5. created by people or caused by human activity 6. dissolution of a thick layer of ice covering a large area of land for a long time, esp. those in Antarctica and Greenland 7. a slowly moving mass of ice originating from an accumulation of snow 8. the act of cutting down or burning the trees in the area 9. a process by which fertile land turns into barren soil 10. any process in which a substance reacts with oxygen to produce a significant rise in temperature and the emission of light 11. the fact of climate being likely to vary 12. enclosed within bounds; limited; restricted 13. the simultaneous existence of two opposed and conflicting attitudes, emotions, etc Ex.3 Continue the following strings of collocations with the words in bold. Use some of the word combinations in sentences of your own. 1. to attribute : relevance, __________ , __________ , ___________ 2. anthropogenic: activity, __________ ,__________ , ___________ 3. to be confined to: ___________ , ___________ , _____________ 4. to have, __________ , __________ , _________ , _________ awareness of 5. to have, _________ , __________ , _________ , _________ implications for Ex.4 Fill in the gaps using the words and expressions from Ex.2 and Ex.3. 1. Surrounded by winter snow and ice, melting seems to be a good thing, but, on a global scale, the __________ of __________ and __________ is a sign of global warming. 2. __________ effects, processes or materials are those that are derived from human activities, as opposed to those occurring in biophysical environments. 3. While much of that debate was __________ to economic terms, some broader ideas of social planning were also proposed. 4. Generally, the lack of policy development has been due to either limited awareness or __________ towards climate change issues. 5. Written accounts of miracles __________ to Jesus are believed by different denominations to varying degrees: much depends upon interpretation and the reliability of the source. 6. Nowadays due to media coverage as well as increase in public __________, global warming has become the topic of discussion everywhere. 7. Climate change will have enormous financial __________ in the years to К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 5 come. 8. __________ is expanding and accelerating into the remaining areas of undisturbed forest, and the quality of the remaining forests is declining. 9. The rest of the dry land has either become desert or is being threatened by __________. 10. Excluding fossil fuel __________, how else do humans affect the carbon cycle? 11. Climate __________ can cause abrupt disruptions, such as floods, droughts, or tropical storms. 12. This contradiction sums up Western Europe’s __________ towards Russia, at once welcoming it as its own and rejecting it at the same time. 13. Just as one may ___________ on global warming induced catastrophes, one may just as plausibly also __________ on catastrophes that may result from absent global warming. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 6 II. Obligatory material Reading 2: The Planet in Peril Jim Hansen YaleGlobal, 2006 Global warming, arctic ice melt and rising oceans will shrink nations and change world maps In Sweden and Norway, the treeline is marching northward and uphill as the snowline recedes. In the Arctic, the polar bear finds its habitat shrinking. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, animals are slowly moving north to escape rising temperatures. Behind the silent movement hides a disturbing story that we had better take note of before it is too late. If the present warming trend continues, rising seawater will claim coastal cities all over the world. Animals have no choice but to move, since their survival is at stake. Of course, climate fluctuated in the past, yet species adapted and flourished. But now the rate of man-made climate change is reaching a level that dwarfs natural rates of change. If climate change is too great, natural barriers, such as coastlines, spell doom for some species. If emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase at the current rate – "business as usual" – then a large fraction of the species on Earth, as many as 50 percent or more, may become extinct. The species most at risk are those in polar climates and the biologically diverse slopes of alpine regions. A few species, such as polar bears, no doubt will be "rescued" by human beings, but survival in zoos or reserves will be small consolation to bears or nature lovers. In the Earth's history, during periods when average global temperatures increased by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit, there have been several "mass extinctions," when between 50 and 90 percent of the species on Earth disappeared forever. If human beings follow a business-as-usual course, continuing to exploit fossil fuel resources without reducing carbon emissions or capturing and sequestering them before they warm the atmosphere, the eventual effects on climate and life may be comparable to those at the time of mass extinctions. Life will survive, but on a transformed planet. For foreseeable human generations, the world will be far more desolate than the one in which civilization flourished during the past several thousand years. To arrive at an effective policy we can project two scenarios concerning climate change. In the business-as-usual scenario, annual emissions of CO2 continue to increase at the current rate for at least 50 years. In the alternative scenario, CO2 emissions level off this decade, slowly decline for a few decades, and by mid-century decrease rapidly, aided by new technologies. The business-as-usual scenario yields an increase of about 5 degrees Fahrenheit of global warming during this century, while the alternative scenario yields an increase of less than 2 degrees Fahrenheit during the same period. The last time that the Earth was five degrees warmer was 3 million years ago, when the sea level was about 80 feet higher. In that case, the world would lose Shanghai, Tokyo, К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 7 Amsterdam, Venice and New York. . In the US, 50 million people live below that sea level. China would have 250 million displaced persons. Bangladesh would produce 120 million refugees, practically the entire nation. India would lose the land of 150 million people. The greatest threat of climate change for human beings lies in the potential destabilization of the massive ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, a catastrophe that would be as irreversible as the extinction of species. The business-as-usual scenario, with 5 degrees Fahrenheit global warming would certainly lead to the disintegration of the ice sheets. The only question is when the collapse will begin. The business-as-usual scenario, which could lead to an eventual sea level rise of 80 feet could produce global chaos, leaving fewer resources with which to mitigate the change in climate. The alternative scenario, with global warming under 2 degrees Fahrenheit, still produces a rise in the sea level, but the slower rate allows time to develop strategies for adapting to the changes. The Earth's creatures, save for one species, do not have thermostats in their living rooms that they can adjust for an optimum environment. But people – those with thermostats – must take notice, and turn down the world’s thermostat before it is too late. It’s not too late – but the world has at most 10 years to alter the dangerous trends of global warming The threat to the planet from global warming is clear: including species extinction, violent weather patterns and the washing away of coastal cities, displacing millions. Fortunately, so are the solutions. Despite what naysayers claim – that energy-use patterns cannot be altered to any great extent – real change is possible given the political will to enact it. If such change is not enacted, however, pessimistic prophecies become self-fulfilling, especially with intensive efforts by special-interest groups to prevent the public from becoming wellinformed. In reality, an alternative scenario is possible. The US is only half as efficient in energy use as Western Europe, which encourages efficiency by fossil-fuel taxes. China and India, using older technologies, are less energy-efficient than the US and have a higher rate of CO2 emissions. Available technologies could improve energy efficiency. Economists agree that the potential could be achieved most effectively by a tax on carbon emissions, although only strong political leadership could persuasively explain the case for such a tax to the public. Consumers who make a special effort to save energy could gain; well-to-do consumers who insist on three Hummers would pay for their excess. Achieving a decline in CO2 emissions faces two obstacles: the huge number of vehicles that are inefficient in using fuel, and continuing CO2 emissions from power plants. The world must delay construction of new coal-fired power plants until the technology needed to sequester CO2 emissions is available. In the interim, new electricity requirements should be met with renewable energies. Much could be done to limit emissions by improving fuelefficiency standards in buildings and appliances. Such improvements are entirely possible, but require strong leadership. The public can act as our planet's keeper. The first human-made atmospheric crisis emerged in 1974, when chemists reported that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) might destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the Earth from the sun's ultraviolet rays. How К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 8 narrowly we escaped disaster was not realized until years later. Yet the same scientists and political forces that succeeded in controlling the threat to the ozone layer now fail in controlling the global-warming crisis. There is plenty of blame to go around: Scientists present facts about climate change clinically, failing to stress that business-as-usual will transform the planet. The media, despite overwhelming scientific consensus concerning global warming, give equal time to "contrarians" supported by the fossil-fuel industry. Special-interest groups mount disinformation campaigns, sowing doubt. The government fails to provide leadership. Leaders with a long-term vision would place value on developing efficient energy technology and sources of clean energy. Rather than subsidizing fossil fuels, the government should provide incentives for companies to develop alternatives. Instead, politicians cast policies that favor short-term profits of energy companies as providing jobs, in the best economic interests, taking no account of the mounting costs of environmental damage or future costs of maintaining the fossil-fuel supply. Today’s leaders won’t pay for the tragic effects of a warming climate. If we pass the crucial point, history will judge harshly the scientists, reporters, special interests and politicians who failed to protect the planet. But our children will pay the consequences. It is not too late. The world has at most ten years to alter the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions. A good energy policy, economists agree, is not difficult. Fuel taxes should encourage conservation. With slow, continual increases of fuel cost, energy consumption will decline without harming the economy. Quality of life need not decline. Jim Hansen is director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and adjunct professor of earth and environmental sciences at Columbia University's Earth Institute. Ex.5 Suggest Russian equivalents for these word combinations from the text, reproduce the context in which they are used in the text. 1. shrinking habitat 2. to claim coastal cities 3. survival is at stake 4. to spell doom for 5. extinct, extinction of species 6. biologically diverse 7. to reduce /capture /sequester carbon /CO2 emissions 8. to project two scenarios 9. a naysayer 10. pessimistic prophecies 11. to improve energy efficiency 12. in the interim 13. a contrarian Ex.6 Continue the following strings of collocations with the words in bold. Use some of the word combinations in sentences of your own. 1. to claim : coastal cities, __________ , ___________ , ___________ , ____________ 2. shrinking, _________ , __________ , __________ , _________ habitat 3. Survival, __________ , __________ , __________ , ___________ is at stake 4. To improve, ___________ , ___________ , ___________ , ___________ energy efficiency К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 9 Ex.7 Fill in the gaps using the words and expressions from Ex.5 and Ex.6. 1. “Earth's environment has tumbled downhill to the point where humanity's very ___________,” a branch of the United Nations said. 2. The Asian elephant has played a central role in Thai history, yet rapidly ___________ and a drastic reduction in numbers mean that it is now an endangered species. 3. Obama's policies __________ for tanker owners as his number one strategy is to eliminate the need for crude oil imports from the entire Middle East and Venezuela. 4. The loudest global warming __________ in the Senate, Sen. Inhofe said in a recent Environment and Public Works Committee hearing that we must rely on sound science in our actions on climate. 5. In industrial countries, the subject of unemployment evokes ___________ of a fast-approaching future in which tens of millions of people will never find jobs. 6. As coal powerhouses continue to proliferate, natural disasters and health problems will increasingly ___________. 7. The southern Appalachian Mountains are one of the most ___________ regions in the world. Biodiversity is extremely high in terms of both the variety of different species and the abundance of each species. 8. Most ___________ are not caused by major catastrophes or horrendous climactic changes, but by small changes in climate or __________, depleted resources, competition, and other changes that require adaptation and flexibility. 9. There was a climate change __________ who testified before the Senate last week. He made the claim that climate scientists were some kind of club and they all made money by somehow supporting each other's findings. 10. Finding a practical way to __________ carbon emissions is considered critical to the mitigation of climate change while continuing to use fossil fuels, which currently account for more than 80 percent of energy production in the United States and more than 90 percent worldwide. 11. It's been five years since the band released a new album, but __________ they've been touring a lot. 12. In this respect, we _________ with different degrees of integration. In the first, of "lesser integration", the future process of trade liberalisation will be similar to that observed since the collapse of the communist system. In the second scenario, of "greater integration", the opening-up process will quicken in the future. 13. When companies begin examining how to __________, they quickly realize that some energy solutions are technological or design-oriented, while others are related to behavioral or operational issues. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 10 Reading 3: Global warming? The deniers are my heroes! Alan Caruba, 2009 It has been nearly three decades since I first wrote that “global warming” was a hoax and I have had to repeat myself countless times since then. Along the way I met many of the socalled “deniers” and “dissenters”. We all knew that Al Gore was lying. We all know that President Obama is lying. And yet the lies continue. The most amazing aspect of the hoax is that, despite a decade of global cooling, the mainstream media, print and electronic, relentlessly continue to write about curbing “greenhouse gases” as if they have anything to do with the Earth’s climate fluctuations. The primary greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere is 95% WATER VAPOR. The primary source of warming and cooling on Earth is the SUN. The claim that carbon dioxide (CO2) has anything to do with the climate, other than to react to changes in it hundreds of years after they occur, is totally discredited, but I still read magazines like Business Week or The Economist, Time and Newsweek, as well as newspapers, whose reporters and editors demonstrate an astonishing ignorance—a willful ignorance—by continuing to publish global warming lies saying that our carbon footprint must be reduced. Even the advocates of global warming began to speak and write about “climate change” several years ago in order to avoid the obvious fact that the Earth began cooling in 1998. Climate alarmists deny this and in desperation say that global warming has merely “stalled”. To my way of thinking, the earth is either warming or cooling. It is always doing one or the other. As to trends over time, it depends on when you want to measure. Alarmists only allow dates that support their alarmism and refute all other dates as meaningless. Climate change! As if the Earth’s 4.5 billion year history is not one long record of climate change! As if there would be any life on Earth without carbon dioxide, the plant food of all vegetation that in turn sustains animal life. Led by Joseph Bast, The Heartland Institute, a non-profit, free market think tank has been at the forefront of the battle for truth for many years. In 2008 and 2009, the Institute brought together the finest minds from the world of meteorology and climatology in conferences that laid waste to the unsubstantiated claims of global warming. I attended both conferences and had an opportunity to meet some of the “deniers”. In the beginning there were a handful such as Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Others who joined the struggle against an avalanche of lies about “global warming” included Drs. Patrick J. Michaels, Robert Balling, Tim Ball, and S. Fred Singer, Willie Soon, Joseph D’Aleo, Vincent Gray, and William Gray, all meteorologists and climatologists of international repute, as well as Howard Hayden, an Emeritus Professor of Physics. There are others, who did much to undermine the global warming lies, unnamed here for purposes of length, but who are no less deserving of honor. Nevertheless, the propaganda war to slander these men continues to this day. A favorite tactic to discredit them was to post “biographies” К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 11 on Wikipedia suggesting they were all in the pay of corporations and could not be trusted. Think tanks such as The Heartland Institute, the Hudson Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and the Business & Media Institute all deserve praise for taking leading roles in disputing and debunking the global warming hoax. The work of these think tanks and individuals is hardly over. The horrid “Cap-and-Trade bill” is a nightmare of taxation on energy use and a vast transference of billions to near useless “renewables” (solar and wind). At the same time, access and use of America’s vast energy reserves of coal, natural gas, and oil continues to be denied by Congress and administration that is hell bent on destroying the nation’s economy. The “deniers” are being vindicated by Mother Nature. The truths they have been telling are showing up this year in America and around the world in early snowfalls, icy road conditions, and blizzards that will bring entire cities to a standstill. Spring and summer may be a little late in 2010. In time, the “deniers” will be honored for their service to humanity, for their courage, and for hopefully saving this nation and others from the torrent of deceit coming out of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and every environmental organization in America and worldwide. For the IPCC to continue promoting the human-induced global warming scare in the face of clear contrary evidence is grossly improper and should be subject to independent review. Man-made global warming does not exist. The IPCC should be challenged to justify its reckless and baseless climate scare-mongering. Ex.8 Look for words and expressions in the text to match the following definitions, translate them, reproduce the context in which they are used in the text. 1. a deliberate attempt to deceive or trick an audience into believing, or accepting, that something is real, when the person knows it is not; or that something is true, when it is false. 2. a person who does not agree with opinions that are officially or generally accepted, someone who declines to acknowledge some statement as true 3. to control or limit something, especially something bad 4. constant changes in size, amount, quality, etc., especially from one extreme to another 5. the total set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by an organization, event or product 6. someone causing unnecessary fear and anxiety 7. to come to a standstill 8. unsupported, not proved to be true by evidence 9. a sudden or overwhelming flow of untrue statements intended to mislead 10. the opinion that people have of somebody 11. to make a false spoken statement about somebody that is intended to damage the good opinion that people have of them 12. to expose the falseness of an idea, belief, etc. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 12 13. brought about by human influence, man-made 14. the use of fear to influence the opinions and actions of others towards some specific end with the feared object being exaggerated Ex.9 Continue the following strings of collocations with the words in bold. Use some of the word combinations in sentences of your own. 1. to debunk: the global warming hoax, __________ , __________ , ___________ 2. unsubstantiated : claims, __________ , ___________ , ___________ , ____________ 3. human-induced : global warming, ________ , __________ , __________ , __________ 4. to reduce, __________ , ___________ , ___________ , __________ carbon footprint Ex.10 Fill in the gaps using the words from Ex.8 and Ex.9. 1. An __________ claim is not necessarily false; it just offers none of the concrete “stuff” upon which the claim is based. 2. Some scientists believe that global warming is not anthropogenic and will soon be reversed, based on an assumption that __________ in climate are controlled by solar activity. 3. Among other things he talks about how he and other scientists that have tried to __________ global warming myths have been seriously harassed. 4. While the warming signal is not straightforward, scientists have recently concluded that the observed warming is caused by __________ climate change, and that natural forcing, such as solar or volcanic factors, cannot explain the phenomenon. 5. The choices we make in our homes, our travel, the food we eat, and what we buy and throw away all influence our carbon __________. 6. When the full scope of the scientific errors involved in the climate change __________ is exposed everyone will realize this has been the greatest folly since the flat earth theory. 7. Global warming __________ are meeting in New York this week to state that global warming is either not real or if it is, is a benefit to the planet. 8. But that's only one small truth amidst an __________ of lies that she has told throughout her lifetime in a desperate attempt to conceal the shocking, unbelievable truth about herself. 9. The work of these artists is represented in museums of international __________ and is internationally acknowledged in specialist circles. 10. For example, while the auto industry has agreed to __________ gases from its assembly lines, it has not been asked — nor has it promised — to reduce gases from the tailpipes of the cars and trucks it builds. 11. Climate __________ is big business, which includes falsifying data to instill climate hysteria and perverting scientific studies into mere propaganda. 12. Climate change _________ claim that the short-term costs of their policy prescriptions pale in comparison with the apocalyptic costs of no immediate action. 13. For so many years the church __________ scientists as being tools of Satan, and just now their true innocence is becoming vividly apparent. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 13 14. I've been seeing a lot of people making the claim that global warming has __________ or stopped over the past few years. But I haven't seen any data yet. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 14 III. Additional texts Reading 4: A Climate of Our Own Making Climate change grabs international attention, but spurs little action. Scott Barrett YaleGlobal, 2006 In the history of diplomacy, probably no international negotiation has received as much attention, and achieved as little, as the climate-change negotiations. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have risen every year since negotiations began more than 15 years ago. A new approach to negotiation is needed, but governments must also confront the inevitability of climate change. It is unlikely that concentrations will stabilize within the next several decades. Other kinds of international response are required. The physics of climate change are simple. Gases that occur naturally in the atmosphere – primarily carbon dioxide and water vapor – trap the sun’s heat keeping the planet about 34° C warmer than it otherwise would be. This is the natural greenhouse effect. Human activity, at least since the industrial age, but probably since the invention of settled agriculture, has added to this concentration of gases. Higher concentrations are sure to warm the climate, but predicting climate change is difficult because of other changes, such as the Earth’s orbit about the sun. Abrupt climate change has occurred in the past, and human activities could trigger more abrupt change. Of course, if concentrations continue unchecked, the climate will change still more. The Framework Convention on Climate Change, negotiated in 1992, establishes the goal of stabilizing concentrations at a level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” This would seem a sensible goal – who could favor dangerous interference with our one and only climate? However, the goal may not be the best way to approach the problem. One reason is that limiting concentrations has a cost. Substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within the next few decades would require a massive increase in nuclear power – the only viable energy alternative available now. In reducing one risk – climate change – the world would add another. The danger of an accident, a terrorist attack, coupled with the problem of nuclear waste disposal – all these risks would need to be borne. As well, we don’t know the concentration level that is “dangerous.” Thresholds undoubtedly exist, but we don’t know exactly where they exist. We only know that the probability of encountering a threshold increases with the concentration level. It is also essential to define “dangerous.” Climate change is unlikely to pose an existential threat to humanity. It won’t even result in massive loss of human life. Because the consequences of climate change are limited, the response is also likely to be limited. Hard choices must be made. Expressing a goal in terms of concentrations implies that mitigation is what matters, but that is not true. Damages associated with climate change can also be reduced by adaptation. The term “adaptation” is normally taken to include efforts like switching the crops that farmers grow or reinforcing the Thames Barrier to protect London from rising tides. But adaptation К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 15 has many more implications. The poorest countries are the most vulnerable to climate change – more so because of resource constraints than geographic vulnerability. For example, malaria spreading to new territories will result in a substantial loss in life. What should be done about it? One option would be to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations to limit this threat. Another, however, would be to invest in malaria control, including the prevention of resistance to antimalarial drugs and the development of a vaccine. The latter investments would not only reduce the increase in malaria associated with climate change, but reduce the burden of malaria overall. These are the kinds of choices we must face. Governments and researchers need to think of transforming the nature of technology worldwide. This will require substantial investment in R&D. With luck, R&D might discover a “silver bullet” technology that produces energy at lower cost than fossil fuels. However, this seems unlikely. R&D would have a more profound impact if the technologies developed were characterized by increasing returns, but no technology currently being considered displays this characteristic. Finally, a focus on technology may help overcome domestic political economy challenges for mitigation. Carbon-capture-and-storage has the disadvantage of being an add-on cost, but it also has a possibly important political economy advantage: It allows fossil fuels to be burned even while greenhouse gas emissions are cut. Rich countries will need to finance new technologies, but poor countries should be the priority markets. Countries like China and India are growing rapidly, and any investment underlying this new growth should be climate-friendly. This different approach requires government leadership in R&D, private-sector development of new technologies, and government leadership in creating markets for the new technologies worldwide. It will also require a North-South partnership for a new kind of global development. These are big ambitions, but modest proposals cannot address the challenge of climate change. Environmental economist Scott Barrett is professor and director of the International Policy Program of Johns Hopkins University. He wrote “Environment and Statecraft: The Strategy of Environmental Treaty-Making,” published by Oxford University Press. Ex. 11 Summarize the text making use of at least 10 words in bold type from the text. Reading 5: How green is your pet? 23 October 2009 by Kate Ravilious New Scientist Should owning a Great Dane make you as much of an eco-outcast as an SUV driver? Yes it should, say Robert and Brenda Vale, two architects who specialise in sustainable К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 16 living at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. In their new book, Time to Eat the Dog: The real guide to sustainable living, they compare the ecological footprints of popular pets with those of various other lifestyle choices - and the pets do not fare well. Cats and dogs devastate wildlife populations, spread disease and add to pollution. It is time to take eco-stock of our pets. To measure the ecological paw, claw and fin-prints of the family pet, the Vales analysed the ingredients of common brands of pet food. They calculated, for example, that a medium-sized dog would consume about 164 kilograms of meat and 95 kilograms of cereals over the course of a year. It takes 43.3 square metres of land to generate 1 kilogram of chicken per year and 13.4 square metres to generate a kilogram of cereals. So that gives him a footprint of 0.84 hectares. For a big dog such as a German shepherd, the figure is 1.1 hectares. Meanwhile, an SUV - the Vales used a 4.6-litre Toyota Land Cruiser in their comparison - driven a modest 10,000 kilometres a year, uses 55.1 gigajoules, which includes the energy required both to fuel and to build it. One hectare of land can produce approximately 135 gigajoules of energy per year, so the Land Cruiser's eco-footprint is about 0.41 hectares - less than half that of a medium-sized dog. The Vales are not alone in reaching this conclusion. When New Scientist asked John Barrett at the Stockholm Environment Institute in York, UK, to calculate eco-pawprints based on his own data, his figures tallied almost exactly. "Owning a dog really is quite an extravagance, mainly because of the carbon footprint of meat," he says. Eco-pawprints Then there are all the other animals we own. Doing similar calculations for a variety of pets and their foods, the Vales found that cats have an eco-footprint of about 0.15 hectares (slightly less than a Volkswagen Golf), hamsters come in at 0.014 hectares a piece (buy two, and you might as well have bought a plasma TV) and canaries half that. Even a goldfish requires 0.00034 hectares (3.4 square metres) of land to sustain it, giving it an ecological fin-print equal to two cellphones. This kind of analysis appeals to David Mackay, a physicist at the University of Cambridge and the UK government's new energy adviser. He believes we should put as much thought into choosing a pet as we do into buying a car. "If a lifestyle choice uses more than 1 per cent of your energy footprint, then it is worthwhile reflecting on that choice and seeing what you can do about it," he says. "Pets definitely deserve attention: by my estimates, the energy footprint of a cat is about 2 per cent of the average British К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 17 person's energy footprint - and it's bigger for most dogs." Alternatively, consider the cumulative environmental impact of our furry friends. The US, which tops the list for both cat and dog ownership in absolute terms, is home to over 76 million felines and 61 million canines. Taking the estimated cat population for the top 10 cat-owning countries, the Vales calculate that the land required just to feed these cats is over 400,000 square kilometres. That's equivalent to one-and-a-half times the area of New Zealand. A further five New Zealands are required to feed the pooches living in the top 10 dog-owning countries - which, perhaps surprisingly, does not include the UK. Then there are the other environmental impacts of pets. Every year, for example, the UK's 7.7 million cats kill over 188 million wild animals. That works out at about 25 birds, mammals and frogs per cat. Similar figures have emerged from surveys in the US and Australia. There is also a knock-on effect because cats feasting on wildlife can leave wild predators such as hawks and weasels short of food. Dogs are not entirely blameless either. In 2007, Peter Banks and Jessica Bryant from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, monitored bird life in woodlands just outside the city to assess the impact of dogs being walked there. They showed that bird life in areas frequented by dogs, even when kept on a lead, had 35 per cent less diversity and 41 per cent fewer birds overall. Areas with off-lead dogs seem to suffer even more: ongoing studies in the UK indicate that dogs are aiding the decline of some rare species of bird. So what is an eco-friendly animal lover to do? If you already have a pet, then changing its diet can help. Meat is the key, since its production is so energy-intensive. You can almost halve the eco-pawprint of your dog simply by feeding it many of the same sort of savory foods that you eat, which are likely to be far less protein-rich than most dog foods. Dog owners might also want to avoid walking their dog in wildlife-rich areas, and cat owners could consider keeping their pets indoors. "Cats are nocturnal, so the single most important thing people can do to reduce predation is to keep cats in at night," says Michael Woods of the Mammal Society in Southampton, UK. And if you are thinking of acquiring a pet? "Shared pets are the best - the theatre cat or the temple dogs," says Robert Vale. But if you must own your own, think about getting an animal that serves a dual purpose. He recommends hens, which partly compensate for their eco-footprint by providing eggs. Or there is an even better alternative, if you can stomach it. "Rabbits are good," he says, "provided you eat them." Kate Ravilious is a science journalist based in York, UK, and the guilty owner of a К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 18 medium-sized dog Reading 6: The Danger of Climate Change for Russia By Alexey O. Kokorin and Inna G. Gritsevich, this article originally appeared on the Russian and Eurasian Security Network Global warming could significantly change the Russian climate, though it will affect different parts of the county in different ways. The impact will be especially strong on Russia’s extensive permafrost and forests. Rising temperatures will also influence the economy and people’s lifestyles. Russia can help limit the possible adverse consequences, but doing so will require skillful management and the introduction of a wide range of new policies. Observed and Predicted Climate Changes Recently published international reports and scientific articles make it possible to identify the consequences of climate change for various Russian regions and to address the three most important issues: the impact of climate change on energy, agriculture, and the permafrost zone, which occupies about 60 percent of the country’s territory. On the basis of this information, it is possible to draw several macro-economic conclusions affecting Russia. The increase in temperature, which is the main indicator of climate change, will not be uniform across Russia’s vast territory. Scientists predict different levels of increase in different parts of Russia. The amount of precipitation will also increase, especially during the cold period of the year. As a result, in several regions ground water levels will rise, expanding the extent of the swamps. Because of hotter winter weather in many regions there will be less snow accumulation, which could have a negative impact on the harvests. The change in the temperatures and precipitation amounts will also affect the flow of the rivers. The instability in climatic conditions will grow worse as the frequency and intensity of extreme phenomena increases. For example the incidence of floods due to heavy downpours will increase, especially in mountain foothill areas, where they are often accompanied by destructive torrents and landslides. Impact on the Permafrost and Forests Climate change will have several negative consequences for the permafrost, particularly along its southern border. Additionally, the warmer air temperatures will increase the number of droughts and heat waves, causing further melting in the permafrost and other harmful consequences. These changes will have negative consequences for the forests. For example, there could be a replacement of conifers with deciduous trees since the latter are less affected by climate change. If the warming of the northern taiga continues, the result will be an outbreak of epidemics in the forest and the spread of harmful parasites. One likely consequence of climate change will be an increase in the number of forest fires. The shifting of climatic zones and the destruction of the current ecological balance will have an impact on a wide variety of plants and animals. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 19 Impact on the Economy and Life Styles In the coming decades, the influence of climate change on the economy, living conditions and health of the Russian population will increase. In the majority of cases, this influence will be negative. Among the positive impacts of climate change, however, most specialists list the reduction of the amount of time Russians will have to rely on heating. By the middle of the twenty-first century, the heating season in the central parts of Russia will be 5-10 percent shorter. Overall, by 2050, Russians could save as much as 10-20 percent of their current energy usage thanks to global warming. Unfortunately, it is not clear if it will be possible to fully take advantage of this positive effect. The instability and variability of weather conditions during various parts of the year will generate negative short-term phenomena – unseasonable periods of anomalous heat and cold, frosts, strong winds, and snow storms. These will require additional use of energy. Thanks to changes in the Earth’s soil due to the melting of the permafrost, increasing ground water levels, and overall warming and the rising number of extreme phenomena, the expected life-span for buildings is expected to drop. Current studies show that more than a quarter of houses in the northern cities of Yakutsk, Vorkuta, and Tiksi, built in the 1950s to 1970s, could become uninhabitable in the next 10-20 years. There will be particular new pressures on pipes and with a change in the flow of rivers and the amount of ice; there will also be more pressure on pipes under ground. This pressure will lead to more frequent accidents, with oil spills and gas leaks, especially in the northern parts of the country, where most pipes are located. Some believe that climate change will have positive effects on Russian agriculture. The extent of farmable land will increase 150 percent. The frost-free growing season will expand by 10-20 days a year. The quality of the soil in the Black Earth region will improve. However, the droughts will increase across Russia, which could lead to serious water problems and a reduction of the harvest. The amount of water supplied to the population and the economy will have to increase. It will grow by 12-14 percent by 2015. However, there will be an increase in the inequality of its distribution across the territory of the country. The most hard-hit areas will be those that are heavily populated, which today are experiencing a shortage of water. Thanks to rising temperatures in urban areas, Russia can expect 4,000 to 28,800 more deaths per year. In the lower Volga and other southern regions, with hotter and drier weather, there could be water shortages and increased threat of cholera, rodent-borne diseases, and a variety of other health issues. Macroeconomic Conclusions and Recommendations The above discussion focuses only on the direct dangers facing Russia in the coming decades. In the longer term, the negative consequences could be much worse, especially if there are no reductions in the global production of greenhouse gases, which would make it possible to hold the temperature increase to two degrees. Some believe that “with skillful management of the processes, several countries could avoid losses.” But it is very important to understand here what “skillful” management means for Russia: Timely adaptation of the economy to the new climatic conditions. State support for technologies of the future and incentives for the private sector to introduce these innovations. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 20 Achieving maximal benefits from “natural” energy and economic advantages: the presence of extensive natural gas reserves, great expanses for growing exportable bio-fuels, hydro-electricity and reserves of fresh water. Imposing a strict international regime to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, and limiting global climate change by 2050 to 2 degrees. Those conditions would allow Russia to realize its comparative advantages and make a contribution to preserving the planet’s climate. Unfortunately, if the temperature rises 3-4 degrees, Russia will face losses that will be much larger than the costs of implementing a timely transfer to new energy technologies. Ex. 12 Summarize the text making use of at least 10 words in bold type from the text. К.В. Малыхина. Английский язык для студентов IV курса факультета МО “CLIMATE CHANGE” 21