TEACHING RESOURCES
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MODULE 10: HOW WILL BANGLADESH’S PRECIPITATION CHANGE?
TEACHING ACTIVITY PLAN: BANGLADESH
A lack of consistency between models representing monsoon processes contributes to uncertainty in estimates of future precipitation in this region. (Christensen et al., 2007)
Tropical cyclones are poorly captured by Global Circulation Models and the potential changes in intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones in the future are uncertain. Evidence suggests that
tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense under a warmer climate as a result of higher sea-surface temperatures but the changes to storm tracks and frequency of events
introduces uncertainty at a regional scale.
For further information see Christensen et al. (2007) IPCC Working Group I Report: ‘The Physical Science Basis’, Chapter 11 (Regional Climate projections): Section 11.4 (Asia).
ACTIVITY ONE
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Precipitation has fallen in Bangladesh by 1.1mm per month since 1960.Precipitation in the monsoon season (JJA) has fallen more than this. Precipitation has actually increased in
MAM.
ACTIVITY TWO
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In the future, there will be small increases in precipitation in Bangladesh. It is particularly hard to make precipitation projections for Bangladesh, as the monsoon is relatively poorly
understood.
Areas near the Bay of Bengal are likely to experience more precipitation in the future due to the greater frequency of tropical cyclones.