2012-10-19/Bo Sjö
Understanding the Eurostat yield curve1
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html
Spot rate = zero coupon bonds eq. Derived from coupon bonds YTM
Instantaneous forward = implicit forward rates.
Par yield = avkastning som ger kupongräntor (tror jag)
There are many different yield curves.
Yield curves:
1) On the run Yield curve yield to maturity yield curve
(Notice: Some say it is not necessary to calculate spot curves etc to understand the term structure
of interest rates. The difference is small and you will reach the same conclusion).
2) Spot yield curve derived from the on the run yield curve (= term structure of interest rates,
there is no reinvestment risk involved; the stated yield is equal to the actual annual return.
That is, the yield on a zero-coupon bond of n years maturity is regarded as the true n-year
interest rate. )
3) (Instantaneous) Forward yield curve (=Implicit forward rates)
4) Par yield curve - Calculate the yield at par from bonds in the yield curve. This is used to set
the price (at par) for new bonds. If necessary add credit risk premium for corporate bonds)
Curves are sloping, compare with historical average, and change from previous day/week/”big news”
Slope of yield curve is usually measured as = long term yield – short term yield
Normal: slightly positive, in which yields are at “average” levels and the curve slopes gently upwards
as maturity increase (Perhaps a flat yield curve, constant inflation + liquidity risk, borrow long, more
investor short term)
1
Builds on Moorad Choudhry Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve.
Positive steep upward sloping: in which yields are at historically low levels, with long rates
substantially greater than short rates
Negative or inverted or negative : in which yield levels are very high by historical standards, but
long-term yields are significantly lower than short rates;
Humped: where yields are high with the curve rising to a peak in the medium-term maturity
area, and then sloping downwards at longer maturities
Expectation theory Implicit forward rates = expected future short rates
Liquidity:
We can consider this theory in terms of inflation expectations as well. Where inflation is
expected to remain roughly stable over time, the market would anticipate a positive yield curve.
However the expectations hypothesis cannot by itself explain this phenomenon, as under stable
inflationary conditions one would expect a flat yield curve. The risk inherent in longer-dated
investments, or the liquidity preference theory, seeks to explain a positive shaped curve.
Generally borrowers prefer to borrow over as long a term as possible, while lenders will wish to
lend over as short a term as possible. Therefore, as we first stated, lenders have to be
compensated for lending over the longer term; this compensation is considered a premium for a
loss in liquidity for the lender. The premium is increased the further the investor lends across the
term structure, so that the longest-dated investments will, all else being equal, have the highest
yield.