Calculations for Target Beneficiaries
Preliminary Assumptions:
Total Population in Mogadishu: 600,000
Total Population under 5 years: 120,000
1. Severe Acute Malnourished (SAM) children
# of SAM cases = SAM incidence x point coverage x population under five
= k x SAM prevalence x point coverage x population under five
where k is a conversion factor to change prevalence to incidence
# of SAM cases
k = ---------------------------------------------------------------prevalence x point coverage x population under 5
We use the current amount of SAM cases admitted into the programme (around 6,000) as
the # of SAM cases, we use a SAM prevalence rate of 5%1 and assume that this is based
on a point coverage of 50%, we arrive at the following k value:
6,000 SAM cases
k = ------------------------------- = 2
0.05 x 0.5 x 120,000
Now, we use k as conversion factor to calculate the estimated number of target SAM
cases that are there in Mogadishu using the following formula:
Target # of SAM cases = population of under 5 x prevalence x target coverage x k
= 120,000 x 0.05 x 0.80 x 2
= 9,600 target # of SAM children
1
According to most recent FSNAU Somalia analysis
2. Moderate Acute Malnourished (MAM) Children
# of MAM children = MAM incidence x point coverage x population under five
# of MAM children = k x MAM prevalence x point coverage x population under five
where k is a conversion factor to change prevalence to incidence
# of MAM children
k = -------------------------------------------------------------------------------MAM prevalence x point coverage x population under five
We use the total number of MAM children admitted in the programme (around 18,175)
as the # of MAM children, we use a MAM prevalence rate of 15%2 and assume that this
is based on a point coverage of 50%
18,175
k = -----------------------------------0.15 x 0.50 x 120,000
k=2
Now we use k as a conversion factor to calculate the estimated number of target MAM
cases that are there in Mogadishu using the formula:
Target # of MAM cases = population of under 5 x prevalence x target coverage x k
= 120,000 x 0.15 x 0.80 x 2
= 28,800
2
According to the latest FSNAU Somalia analysis
3. Malnourished Pregnant and Lactating Women
We assume that 6% of the total population are pregnant and lactating women and that
17% of them are malnourished.
# of malnourished pregnant and lactating women = 600,000 x 0.06 x 0.17
# of malnourished pregnant and lactating women = 6,120