A CONCEPT NOTE ON POPULATION SITUATION ANALYSIS
Introduction
Globally, people are living longer and healthier lives, and couples are choosing to have fewer children.
However, huge inequities persist and daunting challenges lie ahead. While many richer countries are now
concerned about low fertility and ageing, Kenya, like other poor nations, is struggling to meet the needs of a
rapidly growing population with huge disparities between the rich and the poor. In addition, more people in
Kenya, like in other developing countries, are vulnerable to food insecurity, water shortages, and weatherrelated disasters.
In light of several developmental frameworks agreed upon by the international community, the Government
of Kenya is committed to mainstreaming population dynamics, reproductive health and gender issues into
National Development Strategies. This strategic axis is anchored on the ability of all relevant stakeholders to
be able to not only understand how population dynamics interrelate with the development process, but also
how to integrate population and reproductive health dynamics, and their linkages and impacts, on poverty and
inequality.
Objectives
The purpose of the population situation analysis is to document incisively the overall situation of the well
being of the society of Kenya and to inform the government, civil society, individuals and the entire spectrum
of stakeholders, challenges and opportunities that Kenya has and suggest ways of how to address these
challenges while utilizing the opportunities gainfully. Specifically, the PSA will:
 Equip users with an instrument for assessment and advocacy;
 Contribute to greater efficiency and strategic impact of technical assistance in the field of population
and development for public policy formulation and implementation and especially for the elaboration
of national development strategies based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); and
 Result in a document that will be attractive for various national actors in government, civil society,
and the private sector, as well as cooperation agencies.
The process and documentation of PSA requires working together with national actors in order to analyze
and demonstrate the relevance of population issues in a country’s development strategy, and the practical
implications for public policies. Hence the need for extensive dialogue involving high levels of participation
for effective identification of the needs and proposals for action, while at the same time building ownership
and enhancing national capacities. In this regard, a task force that is headed by a high-level government
official and comprising members drawn from various key government agencies and civil society, will be
formed to provide guidance and oversight during the PSA process.
Components of PSA
The PSA report is expected to comprise six core thematic areas, namely: introductory section consisting of
objectives of PSA, background and guiding principles; a comprehensive overview of the country situation
including progress towards meeting national and international development goals; a synthesis of data and
information on population dynamics, sexual and reproductive health in the context of economic and social
processes; an examination of the extent to which inequalities exist including the exercise of rights; highlights
of relationships and impacts and the relevance of public policies; and a final section providing a summary
including core challenges and opportunities for action. These thematic areas will be better organized along the
chapters outlined herebelow.
Chapter I: Introduction
This chapter is expected to consist of objectives of PSA, background and guiding principles, a comprehensive
overview of the country situation, and progress towards meeting national and international development
goals.
Chapter II: Overview of the situation of the country with regard to international agreements
This chapter will form the background of the country situation and will include a review of population
dynamics and the potentialities or constraints imposed by the national context. The review shall consist of: a
global analysis of the country with regard to the most important aggregate characteristics of the demographic
transition; the economic, socio-cultural, political, and institutional context; the country position with respect
to its international commitments, with emphasis on the MDGs and the ICPD Programme of Action.
Chapter III: Population dynamics
This will identify more specifically the main characteristics of the population processes and the main
challenges or problems confronted by the country in these areas. It will, therefore, consider all population
behaviours (but the emphasis placed on each category of behaviour will be determined by the importance that
it has in the country), according to the stage of the demographic, epidemiological, and urban transition, as
well as the availability of information. Tentatively, it is envisioned that there will be 11 sections, namely:
1. Trajectory and Growth of the Population in the Context of the Demographic Transition;
2. Changes in the Situation of Sexual and Reproductive Health, with an Emphasis on Fertility;
3. Sexual and Reproductive Health: Health Systems and Service Delivery (Health Systems and Service
Delivery, Emergency Obstetric Care, Unmet Need, Obstetric Fistula);
4. Changes in Overall, Infant, Child, and Maternal Mortality;
5. Morbidity, Mortality and the Epidemiological Transition;
6. Situation and Trends with Respect to HIV/AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs);
7. Changes in the Age Structure, with Special Reference to Ageing, Adolescents and Youth and their
Emergence as a Priority Group;
8. Marriage and Family Patterns;
9. Settlement Patterns and Population Mobility (Urbanization and Changes in Regional Population
Distribution, Internal Migration, Emergency Situations: Natural Disasters, Armed Conflicts,
Displacement);
10. International Migration, Trafficking and Cross-Border Movement; and
11. Socio-demographic Information as an Instrument of Analysis, Policies and Empowerment.
Chapter IV: Overview of inequalities and exercise of rights
This chapter will serve as a synthesis of results presented in previous chapters as well as examining the
conceptual linkages with development parameters. In particular, this chapter is expected to present a detailed
overview of inequalities according to socio-economic, regional and gender groups thus demonstrating the
contrasting situations that characterize these different groups in the country. It is expected that the PSA will
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illustrates not only manifestations of inequality/poverty, but also the extent to which this inequality persists
despite advances in the demographic transition. It will also describe the extent to which inequalities have been
reduced through the application of a rights-based perspective.
Chapter V: Relationships and impacts
In this chapter, it is expected that an analysis of the most important connections between the various
components of population dynamics, reproduction, and gender, and their actual or potential implications for
public policies, will be presented. In particular, highlights of the need to reduce poverty and inequalities and
guarantee human rights will be presented.
Chapter VI: Challenges and opportunities
This chapter will be the final section of the PSA that is anticipated to:
a) serve as a summary and conclusions, with an emphasis on the relevance of the findings and the
identification of the main challenges and priorities that confront the country, as well as the
contribution that can be made from the viewpoint of population analysis;
b) highlight the opportunities and the need for investing in rights-based public policies for reducing
inequalities; and
c) define the context for strategic interventions that UNFPA can undertake as part of a joint effort
of the United Nations System to support the development of the country.
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ANNEX 1: DETAILED CONTENTS OF CHAPTER II AND III OF PSA
Chapter
II
Organization
Review of population dynamics and the potentialities or constraints imposed by the national
context:
 a global analysis of the country with regard to the most important aggregate characteristics
of the demographic transition;
 the economic, socio-cultural, political, and institutional context;
 the country position with respect to its international commitments, with an emphasis on
the MDGs and the ICPD
Include socio-demographic information as an instrument of analysis, policies and
empowerment
Write a paper of at most 20 pages including tables, illustrations and references
III
This chapter will identify more specifically the main characteristics of the population processes
and the main challenges or problems confronted by the country in these areas. It will,
therefore, consider all population behaviours but the emphasis placed on each category of
behaviour will be determined by the importance that it has in the country, according to the
stage of the demographic, epidemiological, and urban transition, as well as the availability of
information.
III
Focus on:
Sections  Trajectory and growth of the population in the context of the demographic transition
1&7
 Changes in the Age Structure, with Special Reference to Ageing , Adolescents and Youth
and their Emergence as a Priority Group
Include socio-demographic information as an instrument of analysis, policies and
empowerment
Write a 15-20 page paper including tables, illustrations and references
III
Focus on:
Sections  Changes in the Situation of Sexual and Reproductive Health including Family Planning,
2&8
with an Emphasis on Fertility
 Marriage and Family Patterns, with an Emphasis on Early marriage
Include socio-demographic information as an instrument of analysis, policies and
empowerment
Write a 15-20 page paper including tables, illustrations and references
III
Focus on:
Section 3  Sexual and Reproductive Health: health systems and service delivery (health systems and
service delivery, emergency obstetric care, unmet need , obstetric fistula)
Include socio-demographic information as an instrument of analysis, policies and
empowerment
Write a 15-20 page paper including tables, illustrations and references
III
Focus on:
Sections  Changes in overall, infant, child, and maternal mortality (MDGs 4 & 5)
4, 5 & 6  Morbidity, mortality and the epidemiological transition
 Situation and trends with respect to HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (STIs),
TB and Malaria (MDG 6)
Include socio-demographic information as an instrument of analysis, policies and
empowerment
Write a 15-20 page paper including tables, illustrations and references
3
III
Sections
9 & 10
Focus on:
 Settlement patterns and population mobility (urbanization and changes in regional
population distribution, internal migration, emergency situations: natural disasters, armed
conflicts, displacement)
 International migration, trafficking and cross-border movement
Include socio-demographic information as an instrument of analysis, policies and
empowerment
Write a paper of at most 25 pages including tables, illustrations and references
4