DETECTION ACCURACY OF ACTIVE FAULT BASEDON SEISMIC REFLECTION METHOD DATA Katsumi Ebisawa, Toshio Kogure, Hideaki Tsutsumi, Shohei Motohashi and Masaharu Sakagami Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES), Japan Abstract The authors examined the accuracy of detection of active fault detected by seismic reflection method using the active fault data at Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion and National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. It was demonstrated that the detection possibility of active faults was quite large and the detection percentage was about 90 %, when the seismic reflection method was applied suitably against them under sedimentary layer. The percentage of dip-slip faults to total faults was detected 86 % and that for strike-slip faults is 14 %. The detection percentage of the former fault was about six times as large as that of the latter. It was predicted that active fault of fault length over 6 km may be detected by the seismic reflection method. . 1 1. Introduction As a part of the advanced seismic design guideline, Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization has been conducting the development of methodology for evaluating the exceedance probability spectra of seismic motion occurred by the buried fault. On the other hand, Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) and National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) have been conducting the investigation of active faults by using the various investigation methods (geophysical prospecting included the seismic reflection method, trenching, boring and outcrop investigation etc.). In order to estimate the accuracy of detection of active faults by the seismic reflection method, the authors examined the accuracy using 55 active faults data in HERP’s and AIST’s database 1),2). Furthermore we also examined the relationship between the fault displacement obtained by the seismic reflection method and the fault characteristics (fault length, average slip rate etc.) obtained by trenching, boring and outcrop investigation, etc. This paper describes the above detection accuracy and the relationship between the fault displacement and the fault characteristics. 2. Overview of active fault data (1) Data used the examination The active fault data of Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) 1) and National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) 2) were used to examine. The active faults in HERP’s and AIST’s data were classified into the following two types. - Buried fault: Fault with no surface appearance due to overburden - Surface fault: Fault with any surface appearance such as a fault outcrop Both HERP’s and AIST’s data were obtained by the seismic reflection method and other investigation methods that are the trench, boring and outcrop, etc. The parameters of the data obtained by the seismic reflection method are as follows. - Displacement at the sedimentary layer - Displacement at the basement The sedimentary layer is defined as after the neogene period. The basement is defined as before the paleogene period. On the other hand, the parameters of the data obtained by the trench and outcrop etc. are as follows. - Types of displacement; dip-slip or strike-slip or dip & strike-slip - Average slip rate - Fault length The confidence for the above three parameters is described in the HERP’s data but that is not described in the AIST’s data. (2) Arrangement way of data Both the displacement data obtained by seismic reflection method, and the fault characteristics data obtained by the trenching, boring and outcrop investigation, etc. in the HERP’s data were arranged for the buried and surface faults as shown in Table 1 (A). Those in the AIST’s data were also arranged as shown in Table 1 (B). The total number of faults in Table 1 (A) and (B) is 55. 2 The profile location and the displacement obtained by the seismic reflection method for the Kyoto-Nara north basin fault zone at the sedimentary layer and basement are shown in Fig.1. The prospecting depth is about 800 m. The former displacement is from 50 to 100 m. The latter is 150 to 200 m. The fault of Tonami west plain was investigated by the seismic reflection method, Gravity method and the boring. The prospecting depth is about 1000 m. The location and the displacement of this fault are shown with the columnar by the boring in Fig.2. The displacement at sedimentary layer is about 380 m. Table 1 (A) Active fault data of Headquarter for Earthquake Research Promotion Surface fault Buried fault Active fault name Ishikari-teichi-toen fault zone Kitakami-teichi-seien fault zone Nagamachi-Rifusen fault zone Motoarakawa fault zone Isehara fault Kurehayama fault zone Morimoto & Togashi fault zone Isewan fault zone Yanagase & Sekigahara fault zone Kyoto-bonchi – Narabonchi fault zone (Southern areas) [Nara-bonchi-toen fault zone] Uemachi fault zone Ikoma fault zone Chuo Tectonic Line fault zone (Kongo-sanchi-toen – Iyo-nada) Mashike-sanchi-toen fault zone Tobetu fault Hakodate-heiya-seien fault zone Yamagata-bonchi fault zone Tachikawa fault zone Kannawa & Kozu – Matuda fault zone Miura-hanto faults (Main areas) Tukioka fault zone Tonami-heiya fault zone (Western aeras) Tonami-heiya fault zone (Eestern aeras) Inadani fault zone Fujikawa-kako fault zone Yoro-KuwanaYokkaichi fault zone Suzuka-toen fault zone Nosaka & Syufukuji fault zone Biwako-seigan fault zone Kohoku-sanchi fault zone Mikata fault zone Hanaore fault zone (Southern areas) Arima-Takatsuki fault zone Yamasaki fault zone Kikukawa fault Nagao fault zone Seismic reflection method Displacement Displacement at basement at sedimentary (m) layer (m) (5) 500 150-200 150 500-1500 Slip direction Confidence Dip *** Fault characteristics Average velocity rate (m/103years) Confidence 0.8-1.5 * Fault length (km) Confidence 66 ** 200 Dip *** 0.2-0.4 ** 62 ** 150-200 Dip *** 0.5-0.7 ** 21-40 * 200 50 500 50-100 ! Dip Dip Dip *** *** *** (0.05) 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.6 1 ! ** * * 25 21 22 26 ! ** ** ** (10-20) 30-150 Dip Dip *** *** 0.1-0.2 0.6-0.8 * ** 42 48 ** ** 50-100 Dip *** 0.6 ** 35 ** Dip Dip Strike *** *** *** 0.4 0.5-1 1.8-3.5 ** * ** 42 38 66-74 ** ** ** 400-500 50 ? ? Dip *** 1 * 60 ** ? ? ? ? Dip Dip *** *** 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.4 * ** 20 24 * ** 350-400 Dip *** 1-2 ** 60 ** ? ? ? ? Strike Dip *** ! 0.2-0.3 1-3 ** ! 33 25 ** ! ? ? Strike *** 0.5-2.8 * 14 ** 380 Dip Dip *** *** 0.4 0.3-0.4 ** ** 30 26 * ** ? Dip *** 0.3-0.4 ** 30 ** 200 (30) Dip Dip *** ! 0.5-1.3 2-7 * ! 78 20 ** ! 1500 Dip *** 3-4 ** 60 *** Dip Dip & strike Dip *** *** 0.1-0.4 0.2-0.8 ** ** 34-47 31 ** ** *** 1.1-1.6 * 59 *** Dip & strike Dip Dip *** 0.5 ** 25 *** *** *** 0.8 0.3 * * 26 15 *** ** 50 Strike *** 1.5 ** 55 ** ?? ? Dip Strike Dip ** *** *** 0.06-0.09 ! 0.05-0.1 * 32 44 24 ** ** *** 120-130 ? ? 100-200 ? ? ? ?? ?? (10-30) (10-30) ?? ? (30) 3 * ? : :In the case that fault could be detected but its displacement could not be estimated by seismic reflection method ??: In the case that fault could not be detected by seismic reflection method but that could be detected by other methods, trench investigation and outcrop etc. ! : The type of active fault could not be decided. Blank: Not description Dip: Dip-slip fault, Strike: Strike-slip fault, Dip & strike: Dip & strike-slip fault *** :Confidence of decision for dip and strike- fault- High ** : the above confidence- Middle * : the above confidence- Low Table 1 (B) Active fault data of National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Active fault name Seismic reflection method Displacement Displacement at basement at sedimentary (m) layer (m) Slip direction Confidence V - Fault characteristics Average velocity rate (m/103years) Confidence - Fault length (km) Surface fault Buried fault Nara-bonchi-toen-kishin 150-200 50-100 0.2 12-20 fault Uemachi-kishin fault 400-500 V 0.4 44 Ikoma-kishin fault 150 50 V 0.2-0.4 34 Rokko-kishin fault 400-500 100-150 H 1 35 (Rokko-san segment) Rokko-kishin fault 300 0.5-1.9 20 (Hokutan segment) Rokko-kishin fault 200 V 0.1-0.2 10 (Senzan segment) Shizuki-kishin fault 300 V 0.1 12 Minato-Honjo ? ? V 0.1 19 -kishin Fault Chuo-kozosen Izumi100-150 V 0.1-0.6 18 Kongo-kishin fault (Kongo segment) Chuo-kozosen Izumi(4-5) V 0.8-1 30 Kongo-kishin fault (Kitan-kaikyo segment) Chuo-kozosen Shikoku(5) 25 kishin fault (Naruto-kaikyo segment) Mikata-kishin fault (10-30) V 0.2-1 24 Hanaore-kishin fault (30-50) 57 (Southern areas) Nosaka-kishin fault ? V 0.1 32 Biwako-seigan-kishin ?? ?? V 2 65 fault(Aibano segment) Biwako-seigan-kishin ? V 2 65 fault(Hira segment) Turuga-kishin fault ?? ?? 0.5-0.6 16 Yoro-kishin fault 1500 V 2 55 Rokko-kishin fault (50) H 1.5 38 (Arima-Takatuki Tectonic Line) ? : :In the case that fault could be detected but its displacement could not be estimated by seismic reflection method ??: In the case that fault could not be detected by seismic reflection method but that could be detected by other methods, trench investigation and outcrop etc. ! : The type of active fault could not be decided. Blank: Not description Dip: Dip-slip fault, Strike: Strike-slip fault, Dip & strike: Dip & strike-slip fault *** :Confidence of decision for dip and strike- fault- High ** : the above confidence- Middle * : the above confidence- Low 4 Confidence - - Sanbyaku fault Obitoke fault Takai fault Tenri frexure 0 5 Level (m) -200 -400 basement -600 Profile location -800 0 1000 2000 3000 1000 Profile location Result of seismic reflection method Fig.1 Results of seismic reflection method for Kyoto-Nara basin fault zone 3) 4000 Tonami plain fault zone Gravel Sandy mudstone 6 Depth (m) Altitude (m) Mudstone Sandy mudstone Mudstone Faults location Result of seismic reflection method with columnar by boring Fig.2 Results of seismic reflection method for Tonami west plain fault zone 4) 3. Examination results (1) Methods of geophysical prospecting The following four methods in the geophysical prospecting were used to each fault of 55. - Seismic reflection method (95 %) - Gravity method (21 %) - Electric method (19 %) - Electromagnetic method ( 2 %) The value in ( ) is the percentage of the use frequency. The percentage of the seismic reflection method is 95 % and that is the highest frequency. (2) Detection accuracy of active fault by reflection shooting method In order to examine the accuracy of the seismic reflection method for detecting active faults, the fault data in Table 1 were used. These faults were divided into the following three cases. - Case 1: In the case that fault can be detected and its displacement is also estimated by seismic reflection method, - Case 2: In the case that fault can be detected but its displacement can not be estimated by seismic reflection method and - Case 3: In the case that fault can not be detected by seismic reflection method but that can be detected by other methods, trench investigation and outcrop etc. The numbers of faults for each case are shown in the Table 2. Case 1 Table 2 Breakdown of Active Fault Data Type 1: Type 2: Type 3: Dip-slip fault Dip & Strike-slip fault Strike-slip fault 30 0 4 Case 2 9 1 3 Case 3 2 1 0 Total 41 2 ( ): The type of active fault is not described. < >: The type of active fault can not be decided. 7 Total 34 (3)<1> 13 3 (1) 50 (4)<1> In this table 2, the total number of faults is 55. The number of case 1 & 2 that are detected by seismic reflection method is 51. The percentage of the number of Case 1 & 2 to the total number is about 90 %. The active faults that could not be detected by seismic reflection method are 10 %. The reasons that could not be detected depend on the following characteristics of the seismic reflection method. - The application of seismic reflection method to the strike-slip faults is not suitable. - Since the decision of the fault segmentation is difficult, the profile location predicted by seismic reflection method is not always suitable. 7 (3) Tendency of dip and strike-slip faults detected by seismic reflection method The tendency of the dip and strike-slip faults detected by reflection shooting method is shown in Table 2. The faults were divided into the following three types; - Type 1: Fault of dip-slip component - Type 2: Fault of both dip and strike-slip components - Type 3: Fault of strike-slip component The numbers of Type 1, 2 and 3 are 41, 2 and 7, respectively. The numbers of Type 1 and 2 including dip-slip component are 43 and the percentage of these fault to total fault is 86 %. The percentage of Type 3; strike-slip fault, is 14 %. The detection percentage of fault of dip-slip component was larger than that of strike-slip component by about six times. (4) Histograms of displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method The histograms of displacement at the sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method are shown in Fig.3. The histogram at the sedimentary layer is the uniform distribution from 100 to 500 m except below the 100 m. On the other hand, the histogram at the basement is the concentrated distribution from 100 to 200 m. and before and behind 500 m. (5) Relationship between displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method and average slip rate estimated by other geological investigation methods The relationship between the displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method, and the average slip rate estimated by other geological investigation methods are shown in Fig.4. From Fig.4, there can be seen a clear correlation between the displacement at the basement and the average slip rate, but no correlation between the displacement at the sedimentary layer and that. (6) Relationship between displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method, and fault length estimated by other geological investigation methods In the same way as (5), the relationship between the displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method, and the fault length estimated by other geological investigation methods are shown in Fig.5. From Fig.5, the fault length at both sedimentary layer and basement is 10 to 100 km. There can be seen no correlation between the displacement at the sedimentary layer and the fault length. However we can see a tendency of correlation between that of basement and that. The dotted line in Fig.5 represents the correlation. The magnitude was calculated by the following Matsuda equation; logL=0.6M-2.9 (M:6.2-8.4), where L is fault length and M is magnitude. The chain line in Fig.5 represents the resolving power limit of seismic reflection method and its value is about 25 m. The magnitude of intersecting point of dotted and chain lines is about 6.1. The magnitude 6 corresponds about the fault length of 6 km. It may well be predicted that the active fault of fault length over 6 km will be detected by seismic reflection method. 8 10 : National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) Numbers 断層数 of faults 8 : Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) 6 産総研 推本 4 2 0 0-49 50-99 100-149 150-199 250-299 200-249 300-349 350-399 400-449 450-499 500~ 堆積層変位量(m ) Displacement at sedimentary layer (m) 5 産総研 : AIST Numbers断層数 of faults 4 推本 : HERP 3 2 1 0 0-49 50-99 100-149 150-199 250-299 200-249 300-349 350-399 400-449 450-499 500~ 基盤変位量(m ) Displacement at basement (m) Fig.3 Histogram of displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method 9 Displacement at sedimentary layer (m) 堆積層変位量(m) 10000 : National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) : Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) 1000 推本 産総研 100 A class : 1-10 (m/103 years) B class : 0.1-1 (m/103 years) C class : 0.01-0.1 (m/103 years) 25 25 B class C class 10 0.01 A class 0.1 1 平均変位速度(m/千年) Average slip rate (m/103 years) 10 10000 Displacement at basement (m) 基盤変位量(m) : AIST : HERP 1000 A class : 1-10 (m/103 years) B class : 0.1-1 (m/103 years) C class : 0.01-0.1 (m/103 years) 推本 産総研 100 25 10 0.01 C class B class 0.1 1 平均変位速度(m/千年) Average slip rate (m/103 years) 25 A class 10 Fig.4 Relationship between displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method, and average slip rate estimated by other geological investigation methods 10 Displacement 堆積変位量(m at sedimentary ) layer (m) 10000 : National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) :Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) 1000 推本 産総研 100 25 25 10 1 10 100 1000 断層の長さ ) Fault length (m (m) 基盤変位量(m) Displacement at basement (m) 10000 : AIST : HERP 1000 推本 産総研 100 25 25 10 1 10 M6.1 100 1000 Fault length (m) 断層の長さ(m) M7.0 M8.0 M : Magnitude estimated by using Matsuda Equation Fig.5 Relationship between displacement at sedimentary layer or basement detected by seismic reflection method, and fault length estimated by other geological investigation methods 11 4. Summarization and future plan (1) Summarization The main examination results are summarized as follows. - When the seismic reflection method was applied suitably against the active faults under sedimentary layer, it was demonstrated that the possibility of their detection was quite large and the detection percentage was about 90 %. - The percentage of the dip-slip fault to the total fault is 86 % and that for the strike-slip fault is 14 %. The detection percentage of the former fault was larger than that of the latter by about six times. - It may well be that the active fault over about fault length of 6 km will be detected by seismic reflection method. (2) Future plan In order to obtain high quality data concerning geophysical prospecting, the main issues are as follows: - To accumulate the related geophysical prospecting data with the deep boring data, - To examine the detection accuracy of buried faults using the various geophysical prospecting data. In order to realize these plans, it is important that the deep boring data are accumulated. References 1) Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion: Investigation report of active faults based on earthquake investigation research grant from 1995 to 1999 fiscal year. * 2) National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology: Overview report of active fault research survey from 1996 to 2000. * 3) Koji Okumura, et al: Total investigation of Nara basin east fault zone, Overview report of active fault research survey on Heisei 8 fiscal year, Geological Survey of Japan, 1997. * 4) Toyama prefecture: Survey report of Tonami west plain fault zone based on a basic survey grant related earthquake on Heisei 10 fiscal year, 1999. * *: In Japanese 12