China Livestock Market
Review & Outlook Proposal
2004/2005
December, 2004
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Ⅰ. GENERAL DEVELOPMENT SITUATION OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY AND POLICY
CHANGES IN 2004
CHAPTER ONE
Development Situation in 2004
1.1. Surplus Livestock Products, Fewer Exports
1.1.1. Overall Slide of Livestock Production in 2nd Quarter due to Bird Flue
1.1.2. Changes of Inventories and Slaughter of Hogs, Cattle, Poultry in Producing Regions in
First 3 Quarters
1.1.3. Constant Price Hike of Corn/Soymeal
1.1.4. Macro Economic Control Exercised in May Added Difficulties to Feed and Animal
Farms
1.1.5. Changes of Outputs of Feed Processing Enterprises (over US$600,000 of output value)
by Provinces in First Half of 2004
1.1.6. Changes of Outputs of Meat Processing Enterprises (over US$600,000 of output value)
by Provinces in First Half of 2004
1.1.7. Rapid Development of Ruminant Animals Such as Beef and Dairy Cattle
1.1.8. Inventories of Hogs Shrank in Non Producing Regions
1.1.9. Leading Livestock Enterprises Expanded
1.1.10. Improvement of Animal Breeds
1.1.11. Impacts from Fewer Exports of Livestock Products
CHAPTER TWO
Macro Adjustment Policies in 2004
2.1. Customs Tariffs Readjusted on Certain Livestock Products after WTO Entry
2.2. Preferential Policies Encouraging Foreign Investments on Processing
2.3. Reduction and Exemption of Agricultural Tax and Special Product Tax
2.4. Government Encouraged Regional Meat Processing Enterprises to Expand Nationwide
2.5. MOA Promulgated “Guiding Comments on Promoting Modernized Animal Production”
2.6. Plan on Non-pollution Livestock Products Promulgated
2.7. Policies on Improvement of Animal Breeds
2.8. Five-year Plan for Livestock Products and Feed
II. MEAT PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN 2004 AND FORECAST FOR 2005
CHAPTER THREE
Hog Market Review and Outlook 2004/05
3.1. Hog Production Review 2004
3.1.1. Hog Production Scale Shrank in Producing Regions
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3.1.2. Bird Flu in Asia Raised Pork Price
3.1.3. Constant Improvement of Hog Production Efficiency
3.2 Analysis of Hog Price
3.3. Analysis of Hog Production Cost
3.4. Analysis of Rising of Hog Exports
3.5. Analysis of Equilibrium of Pork Production and Consumption in Last 10 Years
3.6. Hog Production Outlook 2005
3.6.1. Forecast for Hog Price in 2005
3.6.2. More Small-scale Specialized Hog Producing Households
CHAPTER FOUR
Pork Market Review and Outlook 2004/05
4.1. Growth of Pork Production in the Nation and Producing Regions
4.1.1. Prosperous Pork Supply and Demand in First Half Year, Hog Production and
Processing Efficiencies Improved in Main Producing Provinces
4.1.2. More Supply of Pork in North China, Northeast and Southwest in Latter Half of Year
4.2. Variations of Pork Consumption Volumes in 2004
4.2.1. Less Poultry Meat Consumption and Growth of Pork Consumption in Large Cities
4.2.2. Reduction of Supply of Qualified Hog Products in Rural Areas, but More Slaughter
4.2.3. Growth of Pork Processing and Consumption in Cities
4.3. Persistent Price Hike of Pork at the 36 Large Cities in 2004
4.4. Analysis of Imports and Exports of Pork in 2004
4.4.1. Major Exporting Regions – the Southwest, North China and the Northeast
4.4.2. Rising of Pork Imports
4.4.3. Constant Growth Witnessed by Pork Exporting Regions
4.5. Forecast for Pork Production in Producing Regions in 2005
4.6. Forecast for Pork Consumption in 2005
4.7. Price Trend and Analysis of Pork in 2005
4.8. Analysis of Pork Exports in 2005
4.9. Production Situation of Top 10 Hog Slaughter Enterprises in 2005
CHAPTER FIVE
Production and Market Review and Outlook of Cattle and Beef 2004/05
5.1. Beef Cattle Production Grew in 2004
5.1.1. Analysis of Inventory and Slaughter of Beef Cattle
5.1.2. More Dairy Cattle Production and Rising of Beef Output
5.1.3. Analysis of Beef Outputs in the Nation and Producing Regions
5.1.4. Analysis of Production Costs of Cattle in Producing Regions
5.1.5. More Households Engaged in Beef Cattle Fattening
5.2. Analysis of Beef Price in the Nation and Key Cities
5.3. Analysis of Beef Consumption Volumes in 2004
5.3.1. Steady Beef Consumption in Rural Areas
5.3.2 Larger Proportion of Beef Consumption
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5.4. Analysis of Imports and Exports of Live Cattle and Beef
5.4.1 Analysis of Live Cattle Exports, Stable Situation
5.4.2 More Exports of Cut Beef
5.4.3. Impacts from Reduction of International Beef Trade to China’s Import of Side Products
5.4.4 More Imports of High-Grade Beef and Side Products
5.5 Outlook of Beef Cattle Production 2005
5.5.1 The State Continues to Assist Cattle Rearing
5.5.2 Steady Growth of Inventory and Slaughter of Beef Cattle
5.6 Changing Trend of Beef Consumption in 2005
5.7 Stable Beef Price Trend in 2005
5.8. Changes of Imports and Exports of Live Cattle and Beef
5.9. Analysis of Supply and Demand of Beef, 1996-2005
5.10. List of Enterprises with Annual Slaughter over 20,000 Cattle
CHAPTER SIX
Poultry Production, Consumption and Market Review and Outlook 2004/05
6.1. Slow Growth of Meat Supply in Major Poultry Producing Regions
6.1.1. Bird Flue Resulted to Less Export of Frozen Chickens in 2004, and Reduction of Broiler
Inventory in Exporting Regions
6.1.2. Price of Compound Feed for Broilers Fell due to Bird Flu in First Half Year, Price Rallied
Quickly Since July
6.1.3. Feed Cost for Broiler Production in Non-producing Regions
6.1.4. Slight Growth of Poultry Inventory and Slaughter in Producing Provinces
6.1.5. New Pattern of Poultry Rearing and Production
6.1.6. Regions not of Grain Production Reduce Poultry Production
6.1.7. Cost Analysis of Broiler Production
6.2. Poultry Meat Consumption in 2004
6.2.1. Higher Consumption of Cut Broiler Products
6.2.2. Analysis o Broiler Production Cost in the Nation and Producing Regions
6.3. Low Level of Prices of Poultry and Poultry Meat in 2004
6.3.1. Loss of Broiler Production in South China and East China in First Half Year
6.3.2. Overstocks of Frozen Broilers in North China, Northeast and Southwest in First Half
Year
6.3.3. Analysis of Price Trend of Chick Broilers
6.3.4. Analysis of Price Trend of Poultry Meat (Cut Chicken Meat)
6.4. Analysis of Imports and Exports of Poultry and Poultry Meat In 2004
6.5. Forecast for Poultry and Poultry Meat Production in 2005
6.5.1. Stable Growth of Inventory and Slaughter of Poultry
6.5.2. Changes of Poultry Breeds
6.5.3. Yellow Bird Production Converges from South to North Continually
6.5.4. Specialized (Chinese Way of Processing) Poultry Meat Producing Regions to Be
Developed
6.6. Poultry Meat Consumption to Rise in 2005
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6.7. Poultry and Meat Prices to Keep at Low Level in 2005
6.8. Forecast for Exports of Poultry Meat and Live Poultry in 2005
6.8.1. Exports of Live Poultry to Decline
6.8.2. Exports of Poultry Meat to Remain Steady
6.9. Analysis of Supply and Demand of Poultry Meat
6.10. Production Situation of Large Poultry Slaughter Enterprises in 2005
CHAPTER SEVEN
Review and Outlook of Sheep and Mutton Production
7.1. More Commercial Sheep and Goat in 2004
7.1.1. Analysis of Inventory and Slaughter of Meat-Type Sheep in Producing Regions
7.1.2. Change to In-house Feeding from Outdoor Feeding in Pastoral and Semi-pastoral
Regions in the Northwest Caused Shrinkage of Inventories in Certain Places
7.1.3. More Production of Mutton in Producing Regions
7.1.4. More Quality Mutton Imported
7.1.5. Production Cost of Mutton
7.2. Steady Growth of Mutton Consumption in 2004
7.3. Changes of Retail Price of Mutton in 31 Provinces and Cities
7.4. Imports and Exports of Mutton and Live Sheep
7.5. Production Situation of Live Sheep in 2005
7.5.1. Extension of Foreign Quality Meat-Type Sheep in Producing Regions
7.5.2. Stable Production of Mutton in 2005
7.5.3. Rising Mutton Exports in 2005
7.6. List of Enterprises with Annual Slaughter over 100,000 Sheep
CHAPTER EIGHT
Poultry Layer
8.1. Production of Poultry Eggs in the Nation and Producing Provinces in 2004
8.2. Less Egg Supply in the South, More Transportation from the North
8.3. Bird Flue in Second Quarter Led to Shortage of Making up of Layer Inventory
8.3.1. Rising of Cost of Feed Raw Materials, and Rising of Egg Cost
8.3.2. Price Hike in North China Owing to Exporting Eggs to South China and East China
8.4. Production Cost and Profit of Chicken Eggs in Producing Regions
8.5. Analysis of Poultry Egg Consumption in Cities and Rural Areas
8.6. More Quality Poultry Eggs and Processing Volume
8.7. More Supply of Green-food Non-pollution and Functional Eggs
8.8. Analysis of Average Prices of Chicken Eggs in 31 Provinces and Cities
8.9. Dwindling of Exports of Fresh Eggs
8.10. Rising of Egg Prices alongside Growth of Feed Cost
8.11. Low Growth of Poultry Egg Production in 2005
8.12. Steady Consumption Growth of Poultry Eggs in 2005
8.13. Stable Market Price Level of Poultry Eggs in 2005
8.14. Constant Rising of Exports of Poultry Eggs in 2005
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8.15. More Production of Non-pollution Fresh Eggs in 2005
APPENDIX:
Table1.1, SSB’s Readjustment of Livestock Statistics
Table2.1, Pork Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 1991-2004
Table2.2, Monthly Hog Retail Prices by Provinces, 2000
Table2.3, Monthly Hog Retail Prices by Provinces, 2001
Table2.4, Monthly Live Hog Retail Prices by Provinces, 2002
Table2.5, Monthly Live Hog Retail Prices by Provinces, 2003
Table2.6, Monthly Live Hog Retail Prices by Provinces, 2004
Table2.7, Hog Slaughter by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table2.8, Hog Exports By Destination Countries And By Month, 2000
Table2.9, China’s Live Hog Exports by Destination in Dec., 2001
Table2.10, China’s Live Hog Exports by Destination in Dec., 2002
Table2.11, China’s Live Hog Exports by Destination in Dec., 2003
Table2.12, Hog Exports And Imports 1995-2004
Table3.1, Pork Production by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table3.2, Rural Per Capita Pork At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table3.3, Urban Per Capita Pork At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table3.4, Monthly Pork Retail Prices by Provinces, 2000
Table3.5, Monthly Pork Retail Prices by Provinces, 2001
Table3.6, Monthly Pork (bone) Retail Prices by Provinces, 2002
Table3.7, Monthly Pork (bone) Retail Prices by Provinces, 2003
Table3.8, Monthly Pork Imports by Original Countries, Jan.-Doc., 2004
Table3.9, Pork Imports by Original Countries, 1995-2004
Table3.10, Pork Exports by Destination Countries, 1995-2004
Table4.1, Poultry Meat Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 1991-2004
Table4.2, Broiler Production Cost & Returns in State-Run Farms,1997~2004
Table4.3, Monthly Broiler and Corn Retail Prices, 2004
Table4.4, Poultry Meat Production by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table4.5, Rural Per Capita Poultry Meat At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table4.6, Urban Per Capita Poultry Meat At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table4.7, Monthly Live Broiler Retail Prices by Provinces, 2000
Table4.8, Monthly Live Broiler Retail Prices by Provinces, 2002/2004
Table4.9, Monthly Broiler Retail Prices by Provinces, 2001
Table4.10, Monthly Broiler Meat Retail Prices by Provinces, 2002
Table4.11, Broiler Production Cost & Returns in State-Run Farms, 1997-2004
Table4.12, Poultry Meat Imports by Original Countries, 1995-2004
Table4.13, Poultry Meat Exports by Destination Countries, 1995-2004
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Table5.1, Beef Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 1991-2004
Table5.2, Cattle and Buffaloes Inventory by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table5.3, Cattle Slaughter by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table5.4, Beef Production by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table5.5, Rural Per Capita Beef At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table5.6, Urban Per Capita Beef At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table5.7, Monthly Beef Retail Prices by Provinces, 2001
Table5.8, Monthly Beef (Boneless) Retail Prices by Provinces, 2002
Table5.9, Beef Imports by Original Countries, 1995-2004
Table5.10, Beef Exports by Destination Countries, 1995-2004
Table6.1, Sheep and Goat Inventory by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table6.2, Sheep and Goat Slaughter by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table6.3, Mutton Production by Provinces, 1991-2004
Table6.4, Rural Per Capita Mutton At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table6.5, Urban Per Capita Mutton At-Home Consumption, 1991-2004
Table6.6, Monthly Mutton Retail Prices by Provinces, 2000
Table6.7, Monthly Mutton(Bone) Retail Prices by Provinces, 2004
Table6.8, Mutton Exports by Original Countries, 1995-2004
Table6.9, Mutton Imports by Destination Country, 1995-2004
Table7.1, Monthly Egg/Corn Retail Prices in Major Provinces, 2004
Table7.2, Monthly Egg/Feed Retail Prices in Major Provinces, 2004
Table7.3, Monthly Poultry Egg Retail Prices by Provinces, 2004
Table7.4, Monthly Poultry Egg Retail Prices by Provinces, 2004
Table7.5, Poultry Egg Exports by Destination Countries, 1995-2004
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