April Cattle Market Update
Kenny Burdine
We are quickly approaching the historical peak in Kentucky calf prices that usually
occurs in late April or early May. Five weight steers are still averaging a little over $1
per lb, with yearling prices in the low-mid $80’s on a state average basis. The chart
below shows Kentucky average calf prices through March as compared to 2008. The
overall health of the US economy continues to affect beef demand and hence, live cattle
prices.
The annual prospective plantings report was released last week and did have an impact on
cattle prices. Specifically, planted corn acreage was estimated to decrease by just under
one million acres. I think this was largely expected, although the increase in soybean
acreage was likely less than expected. Planting decisions are being made now and will
set the basic supply side for the 2009 corn crop. From there, we will focus on planting
progress, weather, and demand to drive corn prices, which will have a major impact on
feeder cattle this year.
On a side note, I haven’t talked much about the 2007 Census of Agriculture numbers.
According to the 2007 Census, the average beef cow herd in Kentucky is just a little over
30 cows with over 83% of herds having fewer than 49 cows. Kentucky was estimated to
still have more than 5 million acres of grazing land, which includes a significant amount
of cropland and woodland that is pastured. Additionally, we know that the Kentucky
beef herd has gotten a bit smaller since the census was conducted.
Kentucky Auction Prices
500 to 600 lb Medium / Large Frame #1 Steers
120
80
60
2008
2009
Source: KY Livestock and Grain Market news
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
40
Jan
$ / cwt.
100