URBPL 5020: URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING ANALYSIS
SPRING 2006
BEHS 101
REVISED – APRIL 20, 2006
PAMELA S. PERLICH, PH.D.
OFFICE: KGB 401
OFFICE HOURS: AFTER CLASS AND BY APPOINTMENT
EMAIL: PAM.PERLICH@BUSINESS.UTAH.EDU
WEBSITE: WWW.BUSINESS.UTAH.EDU/~BEBRPSP/
VOICE: 801.581.3358
CATALOG DESCRIPTION:
Application of linear algebra to analysis of urban and regional systems and their interrelationships: matrix
algebra, demographics, regional economics, urban housing markets, regional labor markets, travel
behavior, and spatial allocation of urban activities.
OBJECTIVES:
 Develop an understanding of the basic economic, demographic, and spatial interaction models that
are used for planning purposes.
 Utilize the computer models that are provided to generate some limited analyses.
 Prepare reports of analytical results.
 Develop an understanding of the relationship between these types of analytical models and
planning processes.
 Learn the important limitations of analytical models.
 Develop an understanding of applied demographic and regional economic concepts and analytical
principles.
 Become familiar with the current Utah planning context (demography and economy) and some
applications of these planning models in Utah.
COURSE MATERIALS:
Required Text::
Klosterman, Richard E., 1990. Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Maryland: 1990.
Other Readings / Resources:
Additional readings are available on ERESERVE
Course materials and updates are available: http://www.business.utah.edu/~bebrpsp/URPL5020/
Grades available on WEB-CT
GENERAL PLAN FOR THE COURSE:
The first section of the course will focus on the current Utah planning context, an overview of the role of
models in this process, and a general description of models and modeling.
The balance of the class will be a systematic study of specific planning models. We will use these models
in combination with data about Utah to construct various analyses. Our primary objective is for you to gain
experience at generating analyses and documenting you results. We will use spreadsheets (Excel) to
manipulate and display the results of our analyses.
(Note: This class requires a basic proficiency in Microsoft Excel and Word. If you have not taken URBPL
5/6010 or do not have a basic understanding of this software, you should independently acquire these skills.
There are any number of tutorials on the web; several are listed on the class website. The Marriott Library
also offers free software courses: http://www.lib.utah.edu/instruction/schedule.html )
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We begin with simple trend analysis. Next we review the basic matrix operations that are used to construct
many of the models that we will study of the rest of the semester. These include an exploration of a variety
of basic demographic (e.g., cohort component), economic (e.g., economic base, shift share, input-output),
and spatial allocation (e.g., gravity) models. This final section of the class utilizes the REMI Policy Insight
Model, which is a structural projection model that integrates most of these of models as sub-models.
Guest lecturers who work as modelers in planning organizations will explain the application of these and
other types of models such as transportation, air quality, and land use planning models.
GRADING AND POLICIES:
For undergraduates, grades are based on a midterm exam (20% of the semester grade) and five projects
(80% of the semester grade). Graduate students will complete an additional project to be arranged
individually. Semester grades for graduate students will be based on the graduate project (10% of the final
grade), a midterm exam (20% of the semester grade), and five Projects (70% of the semester grade).
Please note: I encourage you to work in teams on the projects. However, the final product must be your
own. Late projects are assessed a ten percentage point penalty for each working day (5 PM) that they are
late. If you have difficulties that cause scheduling problems, please discuss these in advance of the deadline
/ exam.
Grades (based on a 100 point scale):
97 and above: A+
93 through 96: A
90 through 92: A87 through 89: B+
83 through 86: B
80 through 82: Betc.
I expect that you understand the University of Utah regulations governing academic misconduct and the
implications of violating these rules. The University of Utah seeks to provide equal access to its programs,
services and activities for people with disabilities. If you will need accommodations in the class,
reasonable prior notice needs to be given to the Center for Disability Services, 162 Olpin Union Building,
581-5020 (V/TDD). CDS will work with you and the instructor to make arrangements for
accommodations. All written information in this course can be made available in alternative format with
prior notification to the Center for Disability Services.
CLASS SCHEDULE:
This schedule is provisional. Depending upon guest lecture scheduling and discovery of new materials, we
may progress through the material at a different pace than I have anticipated.
Class 1 (01/10/2006): Course Overview
Class 2 (01/12/2006): Planning and Models
QGET Technical Committee, “Planning Models,” pages 169 – 192, QGET Data Book, 3rd Edition, Utah
Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, 1998. Online
QGET Technical Committee, 2003 Baseline Scenario, Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget,
2003. Online
Nathan Keyfitz, “The Social and Political Context of Population Forecasting,” pages 17-1 through 17-3,
from Readings in Population Research Methodology, Volume 5: Population Models, Projections and
Estimates, United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 1993. ERESERVE
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Class 3 (01/17/2006): Methodology
T. Ross Reeve, “Models and Modeling,” Appendix A from T. Ross Reeve and Pam Perlich, State of Utah
Demographic and Economic Projection Model System, Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget,
1995. ERESERVE
William Alonso, “Predicting Best with Imperfect Data,” pages 248-255, Journal of the American Institute
of Planners, Volume 34, 1968. ERESERVE
B. Field & B. MacGregor, pages 9 – 18, Chapter 1 from Forecasting Techniques for Urban and Regional
Planning, 1987. ERESERVE
Project 1 Distributed
Class 4 (01/19/2006): Long Term Projections and State Planning Coordination
Guest Lecture: Robert Spendlove, Manager, Demographic and Economic Analysis, Utah Governor’s
Office of Planning and Budget http://www.governor.state.ut.us/dea/
Robert Spendlove, “Long Term Projection Tools: From UPED to REMI,” 2004 Economic Report to the
Governor, Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.
http://governor.utah.gov/dea/ERG/ERG2004/24REMI.pdf
Class 5 (01/24/2006): Curve Fitting Extrapolation
Richard Klosterman, “Extrapolation Techniques,” pages 1 – 47, Chapters 1-3 from Community Analysis
and Planning Techniques, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1990.
Joseph Lomax, “An Exercise in Trendlines and Graphing,” available online:
http://david.horner.faculty.noctrl.edu/Excel_tutorial/xlstut3.htm
Gottfried, Byron S. (2000) “Fitting Equations to Data,” Chapter 5, pages 110-157 from Spreadsheet Tools
for Engineers: Excel 2000 Version, (Boston: McGraw-Hill). ERESERVE:
http://ereserve.lib.utah.edu/ereserve/trms/annual/URBPL/5010/Perlich/fitting.pdf
Class 6 (01/26/2006): Computer Lab
Project 1 Concepts / Techniques
Excel Basics
Class 7 (01/31/2006): Matrix Methods
D. Krueckeberg and A. Silvers, "Basic Mathematics," pages 199-219, Appendix from Urban Planning
Analysis, 1974. ERESERVE
D. Krueckeberg and A. Silvers, "An Algebra for Linear Systems," pages 362-387, Chapter 11 from
Urban Planning Analysis, 1974. ERESERVE
Byron S. Gottfried, “Solving Simultaneous Equations,” pages 202 - 234, Chapter 8 from Spreadsheet
Tools for Engineers, Excel 97 Version, McGraw-Hill, 1998. ERESERVE
Project 1 Due
Class 8 (02/02/2006): Cohort Component Models
Richard Klosterman, "The Cohort Component Technique," pages 49-109, Chapters 4 - 8 from Community
Analysis and Planning Techniques, 1990.
Project 2 Distributed
Class 9 (02/07/2006): Cohort Component Models
Richard Klosterman, "The Cohort Component Technique," pages 49-109, Chapters 4 - 8 from Community
Analysis and Planning Techniques, 1990.
Ned Levine, "COHORT: Cohort Component Population Projection," pages 85-106 from Spreadsheet
Models for Urban and Regional Analysis, Edited by Klosterman, Brail, and Bossard, Center for Urban
Policy Research, 1993. ERESERVE
Cohort Component Model: Excel Worksheet
Class 10 (02/09/2006): Population Analysis Techniques – Fertility and Mortality
Richard Klosterman, "The Cohort Component Technique," pages 49-109, Chapters 4 - 8 from Community
Analysis and Planning Techniques, 1990.
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Ned Levine, "COHORT: Cohort Component Population Projection," pages 85-106 from Spreadsheet
Models for Urban and Regional Analysis, Edited by Klosterman, Brail, and Bossard, Center for Urban
Policy Research, 1993. ERESERVE
Class 11 (02/14/2006): Population Analysis Techniques – Migration
Richard Klosterman, "Migration Component," pages 89-99, Chapter 7 from Community Analysis and
Planning Techniques, 1990.
Bonny Berkner and Carol S. Faber, Geographic Mobility: 1995 to 2000 – Census 2000 Brief. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2003. http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/c2kbr-28.pdf
Class 12 (02/16/2006): Cohort Model Lab
In class computer exercises exploring the COHORT model
Study Guide for Midterm Distributed
Class 13 (02/21/2006: Population Analysis Techniques - Migration
Andrew M. Isserman, "The Right People, the Right Rates: Making Population Estimates and Forecasts
with an Interregional Cohort-Component Model," pages 45-64, American Planning Association Journal,
Winter 1993. ERESERVE
Migration Component, Gross Migration Model vs. Net Migration Model, Spreadsheet Model based on
the Isserman Article
Project 2 Due
Class 14 (02/23/2006): Catch-up and Midterm Review Session
Class 15 (02/28/2006): Midterm
Class 16 (03/02/2006): Regional Economics and the Economic Base Model
Hoover, Edgar M. and Frank Giarratani, “Introduction,” Chapter 1 from An Introduction to Regional
Economics, Regional Research Institute, 1999.
http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Giarratani/chapterone.htm .
Andrew Krikelas, "Why Regions Grow: A Review of Research on the Economic Base Model," pages 16 29 from Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July/August 1992. ERSERVE
Donald H. Farness, "Detecting the Economic Base: New Challenges," Pages 319-328, International
Regional Science Review, Volume 12, Number 3, 1989. ERESERVE
Project 3 Distributed
Class 17 (03/07/2006): REMI Policy Insight and Transight Models
Guest Lecture: Jonathan S. Lee, Economic Analyst, REMI, Amherst, Massachusetts www.remi.com
Class 18 (03/09/2006): Economic Base Estimation and Projection Models
Richard Klosterman, "Economic Analysis Techniques," pages 113-204, Chapters 9-13 from Community
Analysis and Planning Techniques, 1990.
Richard E. Klosterman and Yichun Xie, "ECONBASE: Economic Bases Analysis," pages 161-182 from
Spreadsheet Models for Urban and Regional Analysis, Edited by Klosterman, Brail, and Bossard, Center
for Urban Policy Research, 1993. ERESERVE
Richard E. Klosterman and Yichun Xie, "SHDT-SHR: Local Employment Projection" pages 183-203,"
from Spreadsheet Models for Urban and Regional Analysis, Edited by Klosterman, Brail, and Bossard,
Center for Urban Policy Research, 1993. ERESERVE (Begin page 24)
Spring Break – March 13 – 17 – Enjoy
Class 19 (03/21/2006): Air Quality Modeling
Guest Lecture: Patrick Barickman, Modeler, Utah Department of Environmental Quality
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Class 20 (03/23/2006): Input-Output Models
Peston, Maurice H. "Input-Output Analysis," pages 43-55 from Elementary Matrices for Economics, Sage
Publications, 1969. ERESERVE
Schaffer, William A., "The Logic of Input-Output Models," pages 22-32, from Regional Impact Models,
Regional Research Institute, 1999. http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Schaffer/index.html
Class 21 (03/28/2006): System Dynamics Modeling
Guest Lecture: Professor Phillip Emmi, Director, Urban Planning Program, University of Utah
http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/
Project 3 Due / Project 4 Distributed
Class 22 (03/30/2006): Gravity Model
Cartwright, Timothy J. "Urban Form: The Lowry Model of Population Distribution," pages 165-181 from
Modeling the World in a Spreadsheet, Johns Hopkins Press, 1993. ERESERVE
Class 23 (04/04/2006): Modeling Approaches for Education Planning
Patricia Murphy, Budget Administrator and Projections
Randy Raphael, Statistician
Utah State Office of Education, School Finance and Statistics
http://www.schools.utah.gov/finance/
Class 24 (04/06/2006): Spatial Interaction Models
Cartwright, Timothy J. "Urban Form: The Lowry Model of Population Distribution," pages 165-181 from
Modeling the World in a Spreadsheet, Johns Hopkins Press, 1993. ERESERVE
Walter Isard, “Gravity Models and Spatial Interaction Models,” Chapter 6 from Methods of Regional and
Interregional Analysis, 1998. ERESERVE
Class 25 (04/11/2006): Modeling in Support of Long Range Transportation Planning
Guest Lecture: Scott Festin, Data Manager and Planner, Wasatch Front Regional Council
Center for Urban Transportation Studies, Guidebook on Statewide Travel Forecasting, U.S. Department
of Transportation, 1999. Online: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep10/state/swtravel.pdf
Project 4 Due / Project 5 Distributed
Class 26 (04/13/2006): Structural Models – Long Term Projections – UPED and REMI
Smith, Stan Tayman, Jeff and Swanson, David. “Structural Models I: Economic-Demographic,” pages
185 – 214 from State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis, Kluwer Academic,
2001. ERESERVE
REMI, REMI Policy Insight User Guide, Version 6.0. http://www.remi.com/downloads/PIuserV60.pdf
Class 27 (04/18/2006): REMI Lab – Project 5 Work
Class 28 (04/20/2006): REMI Lab – Project 5 Work
Class 29 (4/25/2006): Graduate Presentations / REMI Lab: Project 5 Work
Graduate Projects Due
May 2: Project 5 Due in my office before noon.
Happy Summer!
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