WORLD
FOOD PROGRAMME
FOOD AND
AGRICULTURE
ORGANIZATION
A Joint FAO/WFP Report on the Crop and Food Situation in the Country
for the Development Partners Group Meeting of February 2008
Highlights
1.
The Ministry of Agriculture Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC)
released recently a final forecast of the 2006/07 food crop production
and 2007/08 food requirements, showing a Self-Suffiency Ratio of
106 percent at national level.
2.
Despite the above indicated favourable food situation at national
level, many localised areas notably in the bimodal rainfall areas are
likely to face food shortages before the next harvests in June
onwards.
3.
The high level of post harvest losses, extensive cross border trade
and other non-food use for the cereals such as seeds, brewing and
feeds, means that less cereals will be available for consumption. The
surplus of non-cereals (banana, cassava, potatoes etc) are bulky-andperishable staples with high transportation costs making the crosssubstitution effect between non-cereals and cereals ineffective.
4.
Reports from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) and other
sources indicate poor rainfall performance during November 2007
through January 2008.
4.
The Food Security Information Team (FSIT) is planning to conduct a
Rapid vulnerability Assessment during 11-24 February in areas with
potential likelihood to experience food insecurity during the 2007/08
consumption year.
5.
Major staple prices are reportedly rising on most of the markets. This
is in part attributed to the localized poor production last season
6.
With the current SGR stocks stand at 127,000, the Government
should be able to undertake any food intervention recommended from
the planned assessment
UN-FAO
1. The Ministry of Agriculture Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC) released
recently a final forecast of the 2006/07 food crop production and 2007/08
food requirements, showing a Self-Suffiency Ratio of 106 percent at national
level, as shown in Figure 1. This implies prediction of a surplus of over
625,000 Metric Tonnes. The surplus is largely composed of non cereals
including root crops and banana, which are difficult to both transport over
long distances and store due to poor transport and processing/storage
infrastructure. In this respect, there are locations with various levels of
production-requirements gaps.
The potential food deficit regions are Arusha (the districts of Arusha, Longido,
Meru, Monduli and Ngorongoro); Manyara (the districts of Babati, Hanang,
Mbulu and Simanjiro); Kilimanjaro (the districts of hai, Mwanga, Same and
Moshi); Shinyanga (the districts of Kishapu and Meatu); Morogoro (the
districts of Ulanga, Morogoro and Mvomero) and Mwanza (Magu district).
Figure 1: Comparison of 2006/07 national food production and 2007/08 food
requirement estimates.
Source: MAFC
2.
Reports from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) and other sources
indicate poor rainfall performance during November 2007 through January
2008, as shown in Figure 2. As a consequence, in some places planting was
not done, in others it was delayed while in others the crops wilted.
Poor rainfall performance has affected vegetation, with the Normalised
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) being below average, as can be seen
from Figure 3. Despite the vegetation deterioration compared to the long
average, no serious effects of poor rainfall have been reported on pasture and
water availability.
Figure 3: Current - Long Term Mean NDVI
for Dekad 2 of January, 2008
Source: NOAA
Source: USGS/NASA
Major staple prices are reportedly rising on most of the markets. This is in
part attributed to the localized poor production last season, disappointing
production this season and the rising transport costs particularly caused by
higher fuel costs.
Average m aize w holesale prices in selected urban m arkets
40,000
Average 2001-2005
2006
2007
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Dar es salaam
Moshi
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
TShs per 100 Bag
4.
Figure
2:
Precipitation
anomaly (mm), 1 October
2007 - 21 January 2008
Sum baw anga
5.
The Food Security Information Team is planning to conduct a Rapid
vulnerability Assessment during 11-24 February in areas with potential
likelihood to experience food insecurity during the 2007/08 consumption year.
The majority of those locations are those identified by MAFC to have
experienced food production-requirement gaps as mentioned earlier under
article 2 above. Other areas to be covered by the RVA were identified based
on other sources. A complete list of the locations to be assessed will be drawn
shortly.
6.
Zanzibar Food security and Nutrition (ZFSN) policy and programme have been
endorsed by the Inter Sectoral Steering Committee (ISSC) and have been
submitted to Cabinet. The Government of Zanzibar (RgoZ) is now focusing in
successful implementation of the programme and has, in cooperation with FAO,
started up activities at district level to strengthen capacity for integration of Food
security and Nutrition (FSN) in district level plan. Last week a first training was
held in North A district of Unguja. Other districts will follow. The Ministry of
Agriculture Livestock and Environment (MALE) is also working closely with several
line ministries to ensure that FSN is included in the MTEFs.
7.
In response to the Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) conducted by the
Food Security Information Team (FSIT) in August 2007, FAO distributed 183
MT of maize and sorghum seeds to 19 out of the 21 needy districts for
planting during the 2007/08 crop production season. As shown in Table 1, the
seed benefited approximately 29,000 households.
Table 1:
Seed Aid distributed for the 2007/08 production year (Based on 2007 Aug-Sept. RVA), in
Metric tons
Region
Districts
Arusha
Longido
Monduli
Sub total
Kilimanjaro Mwanga
Hai + Siha
Sub total
Lindi
Kilwa
Liwale
Sub total
Manyara
Hanang
Mbulu
Simajiro
Sub total
Shinyanga Kishapu
Bariadi
Sub total
Singida
Singida (R)
Iramba
Singida (U)
Manyoni
Sub total
Tabora
Igunga
Nzega
Uyui
Sub Total
Total
No. of
Vulnerable
households
1,671
1,334
3,005
2,170
2,332
4,502
395
1,006
1,401
758
3,745
1,050
5,553
1,027
612
1,639
1,784
4,150
1,150
1,746
8,830
2,344
1,231
501
4,076
29,006
Source: FAO Representation, Dar es Salaam
Various seed types after conversion and
considering agro-ecological suitability
Maize
Sorghum
Paddy
Total
17
17
13
13
30
0
0
30
11
7
17
12
7
19
23
14
0
36
8
8
10
10
10
0
8
18
8
8
37
37
11
11
56
0
0
56
3
3
2
2
0
5
0
5
5
5
12
12
3
3
5
5
0
26
0
26
7
7
4
4
2
2
0
12
0
12
118
57
8
183
UN-WFP
The evolution of the current food security situation

The final production forecast released early January 2008 by the Government
indicates that the national food security situation is satisfactory. According to
the general food balance sheet (attached) extracted from the report, the
nation has a marginal total food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) of 106%,
achieved from combined cereal and non-cereal staples, with cereal production
alone meets 87% of consumption requirement.

Given the high level of post harvest losses, extensive cross border trade and
other non food use for the cereals such as seeds, brewing and feeds, much
less cereals will be available for consumption, particularly in areas where
maize and sorghum are the main staples.

Although availability of non-cereals (banana, cassava, potatoes etc) meets
the requirement by 103%, most of them are bulky-and-perishable staples,
geographically they are not readily available in many places. The poor
infrastructure and inadequate processing facilities always hinder the
marketing of non-cereal commodities in cereal deficit regions, making the
commodity cross substitution effect ineffective.

The performance of short rains “vuli” in the bimodal rainfall areas of the
coastal and north-eastern regions has been a mediocre (attached figure from
TMA). This has affected many households, making them vulnerable to food
insecurity.

The figure above shows rainfall performance during the October, November,
December and January (ONDJ) period in various areas across the country.
There has been a poor rainfall performance far below normal levels in both
unimodal and bimodal rainfall areas except areas around lake Victoria basin
and Pemba Island, which received above normal rainfalls. While the
agricultural season is progressing in the unimodal areas of central and
southern parts of the country, the season is ending in the bimodal areas and
farmers are getting prepared for the long rain “masika” which normally sets in
early March through June.

As a result of the above-mentioned factors, the food security situation in
many parts of the country has been deteriorating. Many poor households will
have problems in accessing enough food through markets and other means as
the prices of the cereals have been increasing beyond their purchasing power.

There has been a sporadic outcry in the local press from some regions
alerting on pending food insecurity including some location in the regions of
Shinyanga, Kilimanjaro, Mwanza, Singida and Lindi.

The government in collaboration with other partners (FSIT) is planning to
carry out an assessment the vulnerability in the drought affected areas in mid
February to evaluate its impact of the food security and livelihoods of the
people.

The Government should be able to undertake any food intervention
recommended from the planned assessment by releasing stocks from its
Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR). Currently the SGR is stocked with 127,000
Mts of maize and sorghum, about 84% of the recommended annual stock
level.

Other immediate measures taken by the government include export ban for
cereal, though its effectiveness in alleviating food insecurity is questionable.
The government is also supporting importation of cereal and an import tax
waiver has been granted to the local traders.

As part of WFP strategy to strengthen the capacity of the government and
other partners on food security assessment skills, a total of 30 staff from
Government and partner NGOs, at central level, received a two-week
intensive training that focused on all the pillars of food security, which are
food availability, access and utilization as well as livelihoods approach.
Similar trainings are planned for this year at district level.
The training is supported by the WFP regional office in Kampala (ODK) and is
part of a regional effort to build national capacity in conducting food security
assessments. This initiative is expected to continue with additional training
workshops in 2008.
Rainfall reliability zones in Tanzania versus food aid interventions.

The map shows different zones where major cereals, namely maize and
sorghum (including all types of millets) could potentially give higher
production based on the amount and reliability of rainfall in the respective
zones. Maize, the major staple, would perform well in zone I and II,
however, the crop is grown almost in all agro-ecological zones of the country
resulting to serious crop loss when rainfall performance is below normal.

While farmers in the marginal rainfall areas (zone III & IV) have been urged
to grow drought tolerant crops such as sorghum and millets, availability of
such seeds and reliable markets for the produce have been the major
bottleneck.

Consequently, most of the previous food deficit and food aid interventions
have been taking place in these areas (zone III & IV) as the map below
confirms.
WORLD
FOOD
PROGRAM
ME
Districts Targeted (1994 – 2007)
•EMOP 5384 (1994-1996)
Districts Targeted with Food Aid
1994 - 2007
•EMOP 5825 (March - November 1997)
•EMOP 5889 (December 1997 – Feb 1999)
•EMOP 6112 (March-May 1999)
•EMOP 6298 (December 2000 -March 2001)
•EMOP 10313 (December 2003 -May 2004)
•EMOP 10313 (May 2006 -Jan 2007)
Bukoba
Tarime
Musoma
Ukerewe
Muleba
Bunda Serengeti
Mwanza Magu
Ngara
Ngorongoro
Bariadi
Biharamulo Sengerema
Monduli
Kwimba
Geita
Arumeru Hai Rombo
Maswa
Arusha
Moshi
Meatu
Shinyanga
Mbulu
Kibondo Kahama
Mwanga
Babati
Igunga
Same
Iramba
Nzega
Lushoto
Hanang
Kasulu
Kiteto
Muheza
Korogwe
Singida Kondoa
Tanga
Kigoma
Urambo
Karagwe
Handeni
Tabora
Mpanda
Dodoma
Unguja
Dar es Salaam
Kisarawe
Kibaha
Kilosa
Morogoro
Chunya
Iringa
Nkasi
Sumbawanga
Bagamoyo
Mpwapwa
Manyoni
Pemba
Pangani
Mbeya
Mufindi
Mafia
Rufiji
ero
mb
Kilo
Mbozi
Rungwe Makete
Njombe
Ileje
Kyela
Ulanga
Liwale
Kilwa
Lindi
Ludewa
Songea
Mbinga
Nachingwea
Tunduru
Masasi
Mtwara
Newala