W5
POC Workshop
Evaluation of climate change projections
Co-Convenors: Michael G. Foreman (Canada) and Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Japan)
The most recent set of global climate model projections have been submitted to, and are being analyzed by, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the publication of their Fourth Assessment Report in
2007. PICES Working Group 20 was created to perform an evaluation of these projections for the North Pacific
and its marginal seas, and to compute products, such as ensemble averages, that would assist PICES groups like
the Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystem Response Task Team (CFAME), in their analysis of climate effects
on marine ecosystems, and ecosystem feedbacks to climate. In this workshop, presentations and discussions
will focus on ongoing research that addresses the terms of reference of the new working group, and on strategies
for future work that is needed to fill the gaps. Presentations related to the direct analysis of global climate
projections and the calculation of ensemble averages; to results from higher-resolution regional ocean and
coupled atmosphere-ocean models that are forced by, and take their boundary conditions from the IPCC models;
and to the development of local and regional data sets (e.g., SST, river flow, sea ice cover) based on either
model projections or historical observations, will all be welcome. The development of work/action plans,
liaisons with other PICES groups and outside organizations (e.g., CLIVAR), and future activities will also be
discussed.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
09:00-18:00
09:00-09:15
Introduction by Convenors
09:15-09:45
Curtis Covey (Invited)
Managing, using and expanding the IPCC database of climate model output (W5-2774)
09:45-10:00
Hiroyasu Hasumi and Takashi T. Sakamoto
Overview of the present state and future projection of North Pacific climate simulated by
CCSR/NIES/FRCGC global coupled models (W5-3190)
10:00-10:15
Muyin Wang, James E. Overland and Nicholas A. Bond
What will the North Pacific look like in the next 40 years? (W5-3047)
10:15-10:30
Michael G. Foreman
Highlights from recent publications describing climate projections for the North Pacific (W53179)
10:30-10:45
Rong-Shuo Cai, Ji-Long Chen and Rong-Hui Huang
The response of marine environment in the offshore area of China and its adjacent ocean to
recent global climate change (W5-3249)
10:45-11:00
Tea/Coffee Break
11:00-11:30
Michio Kawamiya, Chisato Yoshikawa, Tomomichi Kato and Taroh Matsuno (Invited)
Significance of ocean’s response to climate warming in the global carbon cycle (W5-3011)
11:30-12:00
Keith B. Rodgers, Christophe Menkes, Thomas Gorgues, Laurent Bopp and Olivier
Aumont (Invited)
A modeling study of interannual to decadal variability in Equatorial Pacific biogeochemistry
and ecosystems (W5-2906)
12:00-12:15
Sang-Wook Yeh, Cheol-Ho Kim, Young-Gyu Park and HongSik Min
Characteristics of Pacific sea surface temperature variability associated with global warming
during the 20th century (W5-3003)
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12:15-12:30
Zhenya Song and Fangli Qiao
The establishment of the atmosphere-surface wave-ocean circulation coupled numerical model
and its applications (W5-3216)
12:30-12:45
Elena I. Ustinova
Evaluation of climatic variability in the Far-Eastern Seas using regional data sets (W5-2874)
12:45-14:00
Lunch
14:00-14:15
William Crawford, Jake Galbraith and Nick Bolingbroke
Temperature and salinity along Line-P: Fifty years of observations (W5-3202)
14:15-14:30
Hee-Dong Jeong, In-Seong Han, Ig-Chan Pang, Ki-Tack Seong, Woo-Jin Go, Sang-Woo
Kim, Won-Deuk Yoon, Yong-Kyu Choi and Jun-Yong Yang
Seasonal long-term variation of temperature in Korean waters (W5-3191)
14:30-14:45
Masao Ishii, Takayuki Tokieda, Shu Saito, Takashi Midorikawa, Shinji Masuda and
Akira Nakadate
Decadal trend of dissolved oxygen in the North Pacific along 165ºE – A preview (W5-3006)
14:45-15:00
Dong-Young Lee and K.C. Jun
Estimation of design wave height through long-term simulation of sea states for the North
East Asia regional seas (W5-3064)
15:00-18:00
Discussion (with a Tea/Coffee Break at 15:30-15:50)
 what CFAME would like from WG20
 overall WG plans: who will do what, collaborations, etc.
 future workshops (inter-sessional, with CFAME?)
 funding possibilities
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