Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation in
Agriculture
International Symposium, Vienna, 22-23 June 2009
EXTENDED ABSTRACTS
Josef Eitzinger and Gerhard Kubu (eds.)
Institute of Meteorology (BOKU-Met)
Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment
University of Natural Ressources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU)
September 2009
ISSN 1994-4179 (Print)
ISSN 1994-4187 (Online)
BOKU-Met Report 17
A MODELLING FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
OF FINNISH AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
R. Rötter1, H. Lehtonen2, T. Palosuo1, T. Salo3, J. Helin2, H. Kahiluoto1, J. Aakkula2, K. Granlund4, K.
Rankinen4 and T. Carter4
1MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland,
reimund.rotter@mtt.fi – others: firstname.lastname@mtt.fi
2MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, 00410 Helsinki, Finland
firstname.lastname@mtt.fi
3MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, 31600 Jokioinen, Finland
firstname.lastname@mtt.fi
4Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), P.O. Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland
firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi
Abstract
Agrifood systems need to adapt to cope with the risks and opportunities related to global changes in
climate, markets and policies. The impacts of these changes on food production, the environment and
farmer livelihoods, as well as those of changes to technology and management practices, are not
clearly understood. There is a need for improved assessment methods and tools that consider multiple
factor and scale interactions (Van Ittersum et al., 2008). In recent years, European-wide consortia,
such as SEAMLESS, have worked for creating flexible and widely applicable frameworks for
integrated assessment and and modelling of agrifood systems That work has been valuable in
developing common concepts, methods and more flexible frameworks (Ewert et al., 2009).. However,
their relative generic character reduces its applicability when it comes to detailed regional applications,
e.g. as needed in identifying promising climate change adaptation and mitigation options for
agricultural systems.
In Finland, there are several individual, well-developed modelling tools available for the analysis of the
environmental and socio-economic impacts of agricultural activities from field to national scales.
Recently, a new project focussing on integrated assessment modelling of agrifood systems (IAMTools)
(MTT, 2009) has been launched at MTT Agrifood Research Finland to gather, evaluate, refine
and develop these component models and to link them in an IAM framework for Finnish conditions.
The framework was developed for ex-ante assessment of alternative policy and management options
in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation, biodiversity and reducing nutrient emissions
from agriculture. A set of alternative scenarios of the main global or national driving factors are downscaled
to construct regional scenarios of the major factors likely to influence agro-ecosystems. The
framework is being built by revising existing and designing new models, interlinking the models or their
results at the farm and regional (sub-national) level and integrating the information into GIS. The
component models applied are, for example, a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture
(DERMFIA), a static agent model of agriculture (SAMA), a dynamic crop growth simulation model
(WOFOST), models describing the nutrient dynamics in agricultural systems (INCA-N, ICECREAM
and COUP) and a hydrological rainfall-runoff model (WSFS-P) (Table 1). .
Table 1: Component models included so far in the Finnish Integrated Modelling Framework for
agrosystems analysis
DREMFIA - a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish Agriculture
Lehtonen, H. 2001. Principles, structure and application of dynamic regional
sector model of Finnish agriculture. Academic dissertation. Systems
Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology. Publisher: Agrifood
Research Finland, Economic Research (MTTL). Publications 98. Helsinki.
265 pages.
SAMA - Static Agent Model of Agriculture developed for several farm types in
Finland
Helin, J., Laukkanen, M., Kiokkalainen, K., 2006. Abatement costs for
agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loads: a case study of crop farming in
south-western Finland .Agricultural and Food Science, 15(4): 351-374
http://www.mtt.fi/afs/pdf/mtt-afs-v15n4p351.pdf
COUP – a model for soil-plant-atmosphere systems
Jansson, P.-E. and Karlberg, L. 2004. Coupled Heat and Mass Transfer
Model for Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Systems. Royal Institute of Technology,
Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden, 435 pp.
WOFOST – a dynamic crop growth simulation model
Boogaard, H. L., C.A. van Diepen, R.P. Rötter, J.M. Cabrera, and H.H. van
Laar, 1998. User’s guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model
and Control Center 1.5, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 143 pp.
INCA-N – an integrated nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in
catchments
Wade, A., Durand, P., Beaujoan, V., Wessels, W., Raat, K., Whitehead,
P.G., Butterfield, D., Rankinen, K. and Lepistö, A. 2002. Towards a generic
nitrogen model of European ecosystems New model structure and
equations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6, 559-582.
WSFS-P - a hydrological rainfall-runoff model
Huttunen, I., Huttunen, M., Vehviläinen, B., Tattari, S. 2007. Large scale
phosphorus transport model. In: Heckrath, G.,Rubaek, G. H., Kronvang, B.
(eds.). Diffuse Phosphorus Loss :Risk Assessment, Mitigation options and
Ecological Effects in River Basins: The 5th International Phosphorus
Workshop (IPW5), 3-7 September 2007 in Silkeborg, Denmark. Aarhus,
Aarhus Universitet, Faculty of Plant Science. P. 215-217. DJF Plant
Science; 130. ISBN 87-91949-20-3.
http://www.agrsci.dk/var/agrsci/storage/original/application/115f2ba1481b6a
113288c6f9a773d572
ICECREAM - a field-scale nutrient transport model
Yli-Halla M., Tattari S., Bärlund I., Tuhkanen H.-R., Posch M.,Siimes K. and
Rekolainen S. 2005. Simulating processes of soil phosphorus in geologically
young acidic soils in Finland. Transactions of the ASAE 48(1): 101–108.
This framework represents a novel approach to the integration of data and output from several existing
models. The aim is to apply the tool in relation to questions of high importance for Finnish agriculture,
especially policy interventions targeting more sustainable agriculture-environment interactions, for
example, in terms of water quality, greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change.
Keywords: integrated assessment, modelling, climate change, adaptation and mitigation options,
agrifood systems, multiple scale interactions, scenarios
References
Ewert, F, Van Ittersum, M.K.,.Bezlepkina, I., Therond, O., Andersen, E., , Heckelei, T., et al., 2009. A
methodology for enhanced flexibility of integrated assessment in agriculture. Environmental
Science & Policy (2009), doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.02.005.
MTT, 2009., www.mtt.fi/iam-tools IAM-Tools project webpage by MTT Agrifood Research Finland
Van Ittersum, M.K., Ewert, F., Heckelei, T., Wery, J., Alkan Olsson, J., et al., 2008. Integrated
assessment of agricultural systems - A component-based framework for the European Union
(SEAMLESS). Agricultural Systems 96: 150-165.