MR outline 05/13
May 2013
UK Statistics Authority
Monitoring Review Outline
Understanding Official Statistics in the Context of the Referendum on Scottish
Independence in 2014
'Outlines' set out the 'concern' to which a Monitoring Review relates, describe the issues to
be explored in the Review, the geographic coverage of the Review, a broad timetable, and
the broad methodology that we expect to follow in conducting the Review. Outlines are
prepared before the main work on a Review is undertaken. They serve both as a guide for
the team doing the research and as an indication of work in hand for others who might wish
to make a contribution to the Review.
The concern
The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence is likely to prompt wide-ranging debate on
matters that relate to official statistics, particularly comparisons of trends and patterns in
social and economic conditions between Scotland and other parts of the UK. The Statistics
Authority is concerned to ensure that those involved in public debate on these matters
should understand as much as possible about the relevant official statistics and the scope
for valid statistical comparisons, and that the presentation of the relevant official statistics
service – in all four administrations – should be as clear, consistent and helpful as possible.
Background
This Monitoring Review will:
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Summarise, and build on, factual information about the availability and
comparability of official statistics in all four administrations but with particular
focus on those for Scotland and their comparability with those for England,
Wales and Northern Ireland.
Investigate and discuss the history and reasons for differences in statistical
definition and methods between the four administrations, and consider the
scope for any of these to be overcome – for example by approximation
methods or supplementary analysis – to increase the range of comparable
data, either before the Scottish referendum or in the longer term.
Summarise advice to individuals, political parties and lobby groups involved in
public and political debate who wish to draw on the statistical base for
comparative purposes. In particular, how to identify authoritative statistics
amongst the mass of data available and how to make valid comparisons and
be alert to invalid ones. This will help to ensure that official statistics can
better support democratic debate in future.
Make a fuller examination of the availability and comparability of economic
statistics and statistics relating to health, setting out some of the key statistics
to illustrate where comparisons can be made and where they are problematic.
On the basis of the two sets of examples, the report will draw conclusions and
make proposals about whether further work of this kind should be prepared
before the referendum in relation to all the GSS theme areas.
Process and methods
The Review will be managed by the Head of Assessment with the support of M&A staff in
Edinburgh and London. The research will include:
 Reviewing earlier work and findings of the Statistics Authority and Statistics
Commission, including the large number of Assessment Reports that have
made comments about comparability;
 Investigating and drawing on other source material both about the current degree of
comparability and the history of the differences that affect the statistics;
 Identifying, and communicating with, users of statistics who wish to offer a
perspective on the issues being considered;
 Dialogue with senior statisticians in the devolved administrations and with
representatives of the GSS Task and Finish Group undertaking related work;
 Contacting, and seeking advice from, experts in the Library of the House of
Commons, the Scottish Parliament Information Centre, and the Royal
Statistical Society, particularly about the topics most likely to be the subject of
comparisons in the course of the Scottish referendum campaign and the
current level of understanding of the statistical issues that arise in making
comparisons;
 Investigating in more detail the comparability of statistics in two fields - the economy,
and health - and drawing out some key statistics to illustrate both the
comparisons that can be made and the comparisons that are problematic. It
may be necessary to establish ad-hoc expert groups to discuss technical
issues that arise in this part of the research;
 Focusing on the economy, this report will consider in particular comparisons of GDP
(real and nominal) and wider national and sub-national Accounts, trade and
public sector finances. It will explore the steps that have already been taken
in this area to ensure both quality and consistency in definitions and
assumptions;
 For health, the focus is likely to be on commissioning and how services are provided,
the efficiency and effectiveness of health service activities, and the overall
health of the populations;
 The Review will also summarise statistical developments in Scotland where new
statistics are being developed in response to the needs of the Council of
Economic Advisers and the Fiscal Commission Working Group. These
emerging estimates are classified as experimental, but will receive
considerable attention in the lead up to the Scottish referendum.
Building on the research, the report will set out its findings and conclusions and will include a
summary of specific advice for users designed to be usable in free-standing form. This will
be presented in ways intended to be accessible to those people likely to be involved in public
debate about comparisons between Scotland and other parts of the UK. The report will also
draw conclusions about the scope and need to extend the exercise undertaken for economic
and health statistics to other GSS theme areas, and make recommendations accordingly.
Relevant aspects of the Code
The main elements of the Code relevant to this Monitoring Review are:
Principle 1: Meeting user needs: “The production, management and dissemination of official
statistics should meet the requirements of informed decision-making by government, public
services, business, researchers and the public”.
Principle 3: Integrity: “At all stages in the production, management and dissemination of
official statistics, the public interest should prevail over organisational, political or personal
interests”.
Principle 4 practice 2: Ensure that official statistics are produced to a level of quality that
meets users’ needs …
Principle 4 practice 3: Adopt quality assurance procedures, including the consideration of
each statistical product against users’ requirements, and of their coherence with other
statistical products.
Principle 4 practice 6: Promote comparability within the UK and internationally … Make the
reasons for any deviations from standard models publicly available.
Principle 8 practice 2: Prepare and disseminate commentary and analysis that aid
interpretation, and provide factual information about the policy or operational context of
official statistics.
Principle 8 practice 6: Ensure that official statistics are disseminated in forms that enable
and encourage analysis and re-use. Release datasets and reference databases, supported
by documentation, in formats that are convenient to users.
Timetable
We are currently gathering and reviewing evidence, and plan to report to the Authority Board
in early October 2013.
Your views
We would welcome your views on any of the issues to be covered in this Review. It would be
helpful if we could receive your comments by 31 July 2013 if possible but late responses
would still be welcome. Please send any comments to: assessment@statistics.gsi.gov.uk.