Lebanon Temperature and the Global Warming During the 20th Century
A.K.A.El-Kadi
Department of Geography, Islamic University of Gaza, Gaza Strip, Palestine
e-mail kadi@iugaza.edu
Abstract
Lebanon annual and seasonal temperatures have been analyzed to detect the magnitude
of warming during the 20th century. Annual temperature shows a long-term significant
trend of 0.7oC during the 20th century. The temperature has risen strongly since 1980.
Spring, autumn and the annual temperature have risen by around 1.2oC since 1980, whilst
summer has risen by about 1.5oC. The strongest warming was in winter by 2.3oC from
1990 onward. The rises of Lebanon's temperature during the 20th century were similar to
those reported over the world and in different countries worldwide.
Keyword: Lebanon Temperature Global Warming Climate Change
Introduction
There has been a growing concern in the last few decades about the direct and immense
impact of the global warming on human and environmental systems. According to the
IPCC (2007) report the global temperature has been risen by 0.7oC in the period 19062005. Much intense warming was also found since the mid 20th century to 2006 by a
comparable amount of 0.65oC. The 1990s were likely to had been the warmest decade of
the past 1000 years over the Northern Hemisphere as a whole (Folland, et al., 2002). The
warming from mid1980s was unusually widespread and synchronous over large areas of
the land and oceans (Viner et al., 2000). The Mediterranean basin is unique in the world
because of its geographical position which brings it under the descending branch of the
Hadley circulation in summer while the westerlies prevail during the winter season. The
alternation between these two regimes and the strong influence of the Mediterranean Sea
make the region vulnerable to large scale climatic changes (Bolle, 2003). The Middle
East is the world’s most water-stressed region. The distinct trend towards Mediterranean
winter dryness during the last few decades of the 20th century is unique in the whole 500
years (1500-2000) precipitation time series (Luterbacher and Xoplaki, 2003)
Climate change is projected to cause sea level rise, more extreme weather events,
decreased precipitation and, ultimately, less surface and ground water availability; all
contributing to even greater water stress in the region, with severe environmental,
economic, political and security implications (Freimuth et al., 2007).
ÖNOL and Semazzi (2009), used climate model scenario to project future climate change
over the Eastern Mediterranean region by the years 2071-2100, proposed an increases of
3.1oC and 3.4oC for Lebanon and Syria respectively. Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel (2002)
evaluate the impact of different climate change scenarios on the projected changes of the
water resources of Lebanon and the Middle East. For Lebanon, they concluded that,
1
although precipitation was not predicted to decrease, the temperature would increase by
0.6–2.1°C in the 2020s. The increasing temperature would impact the water balance and
reduce available resources. They predicted a maximum decrease of 15% in the available
water and a 6% increase in agricultural water demand by the year 2020s.
This paper is set to examine the temperature of Lebanon over the 20th century in search
for detecting trend and variability. To find out whether it was influenced by the well
known warming that has affected different countries and the global temperature as well.
Data and Methods
Lebanon gridded temperature dataset for the 20th century (1901-2000), at a 0.5o latitude
by 0.5o longitude grids resolution over the area compiled by Mitchell et al., (2004), was
taken from Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK. The long-term climate
data time-series is used to test for evidence of the existence of trends, periodicities and the
validation of model predicition (Robinson, 1999). Trends are very important in climate
research and usually estimated using simple linear regression (Hannachi, 2007). Linear
regression analysis is used to detect the magnitude of warming and cooling trends (Turkes
et al., 2002; Jones and Lister, 2004). Time series of the temperature are presented by
kernel smoothing curves (Brazdil et al., 1996; Robson et al., 1998).
Results and Discussion
Seasonal Temperatures
Spring long-term warming is highly significant (Table 1). Spring show well defined
statistically significant warming of 1.2oC from 1901 to around 1960 (Figure 1 and Table
2). This was followed by insignificant decline of -0.65oC to 1980 (Table 2). The strong
warming of 1.23oC has commenced from 1980 onward.
Linear Trend of 1901-2000
Seasons
Trend +/Significance level
Spring
+0.93
0.004
Summer
+0.94
0.000
Autumn
+0.045
0.885 No.sig
Winter
+0.73
0.039
Annual
+0.66
0.001
Table 1. Seasonal and Annual long-term trend and the
Significance Levels 1901-2000
2
Summer
25.0
16.0
Temperature
Temperature
Spring
15.0
14.0
24.0
23.0
Mean = 23.8
13.0
Mean = 14.6
22.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Figure 1. Lebanon Spring Temperature (1901-2000)
Periods
1901-1960
1960-1980
1980-2000
Spring
Trends
+1.2
-0.65
+1.23
Sig
0.006
0.334
0.005
1901-1925
1925-1980
1980-2000
Autumn
Trends
+1.38
-0.75
+1.34
Sig.
0.025
0.069
0.037
Period
1901-1960
1960-1980
1980-2000
Figure 2. Lebanon Summer Temperature (1901-2000)
Summer
Trends
+0.98
-0.88
+1.49
Winter
Periods
Trends
1901-1960 +0.94
1960-1990 -1.05
1990-2000 +2.3
Annual Trends
1901-1960 0.84
1960-1980 -1.01
1980-2000
1.23
1901-2000
0.66
Sig.
0.000
0.085
0.008
Sig.
0.023
0.124
0.091
0.001
0.035
0.008
0.001
Table 2. Lebanon Seasonal and Annual Temperature Trends for
Different Periods and their Significance Levels.
Summer show the most intense warming of 0.94oC in the whole period (1901-2000).
Summer temperature started to increase from 1901 to 1960, then was followed by cooling
trend of -0.9oC from 1961 to 1980. The most interesting and intense significant warming
of 1.5oC was from 1980 to the 2000. Summer mean temperatures have tended to
increase at most stations of Turkey (Turkes, et al., 2002). The summer climate change
3
over the Eastern Mediterranean is likely to be the only local manifestation of much wider
scale, long-term adjustment, of the tropical circulation (Reddaway and Bigg, 1996), and
in the period 1970-1988 during summer, there was positive trend of most of the region
with a maximum of 0.5oC/10 years. The largest warming projected over the 21st century
for the Mediterranean is likely to be in summer (IPCC, 2007)
Autumn characterized by insignificant warming trend in the whole period 1901-2000
(Table 1). This might be caused by alternative warm and cold periods that concealed out
the long-term trend of autumn (Figure 3). Autumn show warming trend from 1900 to
mid1920s, that followed by long-run of cold period from mid1920s to early 1980s.
The warming of 1.340C from 1980 to 2000 was significant at 0.04 (Table 2). Autumn
shows similar characteristics pattern of warming to spring and summer seasons in the
period 1980-2000. Similar result was found for Egypt, were no overall trend was detected in
the whole period of autumn, though the period from 1980 onward identifies a comparable
warming trend of +1.3oC over Egypt (El-Kadi, 2008). For Greece no distinctive overall
trend was also found for autumn (Feidas et al., 2004).
The decreasing temperature from 1950 to early 1980s in autumn temperature, and the
warming after, were also detected in Turkish autumn temperatures (Turkes et al., 2002).
21.0
10.0
20.0
Temperature
Temperature
Autumn
19.0
18.0
Winter
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
Mean = 8.2
Mean = 18.7
17.0
5.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Figure 3. Lebanon Autumn Temperature (1901-2000)
Figure 4. Lebanon Winter Temperature (1901-2000)
Winter warming is 0.7oC and statistically significant during the 20th century (Table 1).
Winter characterized by significant warming from 1901 to 1960 (Table 2). Winter
temperature decrease from around mid1960s to 1990 (Figure 4). The last 10 years of
winter showed the most intense warming of 2.4oC in comparison to other seasons. Winter
months in the period 1976-1999, were characterized by rapid warming (Klein Tank,
2002). Significant positive trend of surface air temperature over the Mediterranean, due
to winter season is related to an increase of up to 6 hPa/50 years in the pressure data
(Brunetti, et al., 2002), and the winter warming is accompanied by an increase in the
number of warm-spell days (Klein Tank, 2002). The linear trend analysis revealed
significant increases in the anticyclonic types, while statistically significant negative
4
trends have been found in many cyclonic types over the Eastern Mediterranean in winter
during 1958-2000 (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007).
Annual temperature 1901-2000
Annual temperature has been significantly risen by 0.7oC in the whole period 1901-2000,
same for those of winter (Table 1). It is also consistent to the reported 0.6oC of the global
warming during the 20th century (IPCC, 2001).
It is noteworthy to see that the warmest year was mostly occurred in the last 10 years
1990-2000. This is also seen in both the Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures
(Folland et al., 2002). In much of Europe the recent decades have been approximately the
warmest of the instrumental period, and there has been an increasing warm extreme since
1990s (IPCC, 2007). Turkish annual temperature rates between 0.07 and 0.34oC/per
decade during the 1980-1990s (Turkes et al., 2002).
Since 1976, the global average temperature has risen at a rate approximately three times
faster than the century-scale trend (Alexandrov, et al, 2004). There was also pronounced
decrease in the Northern Hemisphere temperature between 1940 and 1970 (Bertrand and
Ypersele, 2002), this decrease was also reflected in the temperature of Lebanon in the
period 1960-1980 (Figure 5).
The annual temperature patterns indicate warmness trend from 1901 to around 1960
(Figure 3), similar to the summer and winter patterns. Then it weakly declined to the
around early 1980s, as noticed in the seasonal patterns of summer, autumn and winter.
The relative decline of this period was also found in the Eastern Mediterranean area
(Repapis and Philandras, 1988; Metaxas et al., 1991; Sahsamanoglou and Makrogiannis,
1992; and Reddaway and Bigg, 1996). The warming was then intensified from around
early 1980s to the end of the last century, consistent with the seasonal patterns. Leite and
Peixoto, (1996), found a general warming of 0.6oC over Portugal during 1856-1994, and
the 1980s-1990s was the most warming decades in the record. Most stations of Italy show
very clear cooling or relative stability trends from at least the early 1950s to about the
mid 1970s, followed by a strong warming since 1976 (Pirazzoli, and Tomasin, 2003).
Annual
Temperature
17.0
16.0
15.0
Mean = 16.3
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Figure 5. Lebanon Annual Temperature (1901-2000)
5
Brazdil et al., (1996) reported that the existence of change points, signal two significant
different mean during 1951-1990. The change point around 1987 can signal important
warming intensification of the 1980s to 1990s, well recognized in most central European
temperature series, another change point appears in many series around 1965. Similar
characteristics patterns are also observed in Lebanon (Figures 5).
Most researches dealing with temperature change and variability indicated a warming
climate, but with different trends and magnitudes. The onset of climatic change in the
North Atlantic and the European sector was identified in the decade 1981-1990, with a
trend commencing in the beginning of the 1970s (Werner, et al., 2000), and a significant
part of this warming is likely due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
(Moberg, et al., 2003; IPCC, 2007). Model simulation of the temperature responses to
natural and anthropogenic forcing indicated that the most recent warming of the last
century was the response to the anthropogenic forcing related to increase level of the
greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001; Bertrand and van Ypersele, 2002; Karoly and Wu, 2005;
Hegerl, 2006), whereas the early century warming is usually regarded as a manifestation
of the natural effects (Houghton, et al., 2001; Meehl, 2004; IPCC, 2007. Solar forcing
was also documented as the main reason of the early 20th (1901-1930s) century warming
trend (Viner et al., 2000; Meehl et al., 2009). Volcanic eruptions and the increasing
industrialization following World War II, increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere
are considered the major factors of decreasing the 1940-1960s temperature (Meehl, 2004;
IPCC, 2007).
Conclusion
The increase and the decrease of Lebanon temperature are consistent with those observed
in the Mediterranean regions and in different countries; e.g. Eastern Mediterranean
(Reddaway and Bigg, 1996; Turkey (Turkes, et al., 2002); Portugal (Leite and Peixoto,
1996); South Korea (Jung et al., 2002); Central Mediterranean and Italy (Pirazzoli, and
Tomasin,2003); North America (Englehart, and Douglas, 2003); British Isles (Wood,
2004); Egypt (Hasanean, 2004); Greece (Feidas, et al., 2004); Greater Alpine region
(Auer, 2007); and to global temperature (Folland et al., 2002; Kennedy, et al 2006).
The period from 1960 to early1980s was cold for the seasonal and annual temperature,
though the cooling for autumn was initiated earlier in the mid1920s and continue to the
1980. The well known warming over the Northern Hemisphere from early 1980s onward
was manifested in the temperature of Lebanon. From 1980, the annual and spring
temperature was warmed by 1.23oC, whereas summer and autumn was warmed by 1.5oC
and 1.23oC respectively. The highest warming was recorded for winter by 2.3oC from
1990 onward. This confirmed that the warming of Lebanon from early 1980s was faster
than any time before within the 20th century. For Lebanon, the search for an increased
supply of water was accelerated and giving urgency during the 1980s by the striking
expansion in the urban-industrial activities (Karam, direct access).
It was known that, prior to about 1930 the solar and volcanic activity were the major
forcing of the climate systems; these two forces are clearly unable to induce the rapid
warming observed after 1970s (Meehl, 2009). The resurgence of volcanic activity
combined with a decreasing solar output can easily explain the cooling trend exhibited in
6
the Northern Hemisphere during the period from 1950s to the 1970s (Figure 5), and the
rapid warming after 1970s is the response to accelerate greenhouse warming (Bertrand
and van Ypersele, 2002; Viner et al., 2000).
The climate change projections indicated potential for increased stress on the future
water-dependant socioeconomic activities of the Eastern Mediterranean region including
Lebanon (Önol, and Semazzi, 2009). According to IPCC (2007) the future projection of
the annual precipitation is very likely to decrease in most of the Mediterranean area over
the 21st century. For Syria, Iraq and Lebanon the projected reduction in winter
precipitation for the 2071-2100 is in the range of 24%-32% in reference to 1961-1990
baseline. Fortunately, most of the annual precipitation deficit over these countries is
compensated by autumn rainfall (Önol, and Semazzi, 2009). Meanwhile, Lebanon has
high water resources per capita relative to other countries in the Eastern Mediterranean
region; however, it will still be unable to meet its local demand by 2025. Despite this
seemingly abundant resource, and contrary to current notions about water abundance in
Lebanon, the country is facing serious problems of unavailability, both in quantity and
quality and is poised to experience a water deficit within 10-15 years (Halwani, 2009).
Therefore, the net usable surface water and groundwater resources might be reduced by
5–15%, and in fact the baseline scenario predicts a drop in per capita water resources of
around 50% for the Eastern Mediterranean including Lebanon by 2025 (Bou-Zeid and ElFadel 2002). With these projected changes, Lebanon will likely seek to extract more
water out of the Wazzani, which is one of the tributaries of the Jordan River (Freimuth et
al., 2007).
The results of this research is of a particular interest to the Lebanese policy makers,
hydrologist, agricultural engineering and Environmentalist.
7
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