Exclusive vs. Independent Agents: A Separating Equilibrium Approach by Itzhak Venezia* Dan Galai* Zur Shapira** _________________ * The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, **Stern School of Business, New York University. The authors wish to thank Yaacov Bergman, Sari Carp, Claude Fluet, Eugene Kandel, Yoram Peles, Sridhar Seshadri, and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments and suggestions. They also acknowledge the financial support of The Gallanter Center, The Picker Center for Insurance, The Stern School of Business, the Krueger Center of Finance and the hospitality of the Center for Rationality. Address: Itzhak Venezia, School of Business, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel. Fax: 972-2-5881341, e-mail: msvenez@pluto.huji.ac.il. Abstract We provide a separating equilibrium explanation for the existence of the independent insurance agent system despite the potentially higher costs of this system compared to those of the exclusive agents system (or direct underwriting). A model is developed assuming asymmetric information between insurers and insureds; the formers do not know the riskiness of the latter. We also assume that the claims service provided by the independent agent system to its clients is superior to that offered by direct underwriting system, that is, insureds using the independent agent system are more likely to receive reimbursement of their claims. Competition compels the insurers to provide within their own system the best contract to the insured. It is shown that in equilibrium the safer insureds choose direct underwriting, whereas the riskier ones choose independent agents. The predictions of the model agree with previous research demonstrating that the independent agent system is costlier than direct underwriting. The present model suggests that this does not result from inefficiency but rather from self-selection. The empirical implication of this analysis is that, ceteris paribus, the incidence of claims made by clients of the independent agents system is higher than that of clients of direct underwriting. Implications for the co-existence of different distribution systems due to unbundling of services in other industries such as brokerage houses and the health care industry are discussed. I. Introduction Two distribution channels are dominant in the sale of insurance in the US and other countries: the independent agent system and the exclusive agent system (or direct underwriting). Exclusive agents are autonomous entities, which are contractually bound to represent just one insurer. Exclusive dealing arrangements include insurers who sell through employees (direct underwriters), companies who use exclusive agents, or companies who use mass merchandizing without employing salespersons. 1 The independent agent is also an autonomous contractor, but he/she represents the products of several competing insurers. One important aspect of the independent agents system is the right to ownership of the customer list. The independent agent has the legal rights over the customer list, which implies that the insurer may neither solicit the agent's clients directly, nor may he/she reassign a client to a different insurer. The independent agent, however, has the right to move his/her clients to a competing insurer. Many researchers find that exclusive agents enjoy cost advantages compared to independent agents.2 It has been debated whether one system dominates the other (see Callahan, 1990, Hammes, 1990 and Nicosia, 1990): and some speculate that eventually the costlier independent system will be eliminated (Kenney, 1974). Previous research attempted to resolve the seeming paradox of the existence of the two systems where one dominates the other. Most of this research focuses on the relationship between the insurer and the agent, as well as on the advantages and disadvantages for the insurer in using exclusive vs. independent agents (see, e.g., Barrese 1 We use the terms “exclusive agents” and “direct underwriters” interchangeably. 1 and Nelson, 1992, D’arcy and Doherty, 1990, Mayers and Smith, 1981, Cummins and Weiss, 1992, Marvel, 1982, Sass and Gisser, 1989, Kim, Mayers and Smith, 1996, Regan and Tzeng, 1998, Regan, 1997, and Regan and Tennyson, 1996). Recently, Posey and Yavas (1995) and Posey and Tennyson (1997) suggested that the key to explaining the co-existence of the two distributions systems lie in the different client-agent, rather than agent-insurer, relationships. The two systems may be able to coexist because they differ in the services they offer and the clienteles they attract. Posey and Yavas suggest that an important advantage with which independent agents provide their clients is in the search for an “appropriate” insurer. They show that in equilibrium, the two systems coexist: clients with higher search costs choose independent agents, while those with lower search costs opt for direct underwriters. This paper follows the line of reasoning of Posey and Yavas in justifying the coexistence of the two systems by the differences in services and clienteles. Our major assumption is that independent agents are expected to act on behalf of the insured, as opposed to direct underwriters who represent the insurers. In case of conflict over claims, the independent agent is more likely to assist the insured in the claims settlement process than the direct underwriter is. The above presumption is based on Cummins and Weiss (1992), Mayers and Smith (1981), and Kim, Mayers and Smith (1996), who argue that independent agents are more effective in representing the interests of their clients since they own the policyholder list (in the exclusive agents system the insurance company owns the list). Independent agents can therefore, threaten more credibly, to switch their clients to an 2 See, e.g., Joskow, 1973, Cummins and VanDerhei, 1979, Barrese and Nelson, 1992, and Pritchett and Brewster, 1979. 2 alternative insurer if their claims are not treated fairly and promptly. As Peretz (1998) noted, attempts by insurance companies to lower the commissions they pay to independent agents fail due to the agents' threat to move clients to other insurers. Indeed, Etgar (1976) shows that independent agents typically provide their clients with more generous claims settlements. In addition, a study by Barrese, Doerpinghaus, and Nelson (1993), finds that independent agents provide higher quality of services than exclusive agents do. We show that equilibrium may exist where riskier clients choose the more expensive independent agents with lower deductibles and the safer clients prefer the cheaper direct underwriting. This occurs because riskier clients believe that there are higher chances they may need an agent’s help in case of damage. They are willing to pay for the superior services offered by the higher-priced independent agents. Our model provides, therefore, an alternative explanation for the co-existence of the two systems. It also provides a testable hypothesis different from that of Posey and Yavas; namely, that ceteris paribus, clients of the independent agents system experience either a higher incidence of claims, or higher levels of claims. The paper is structured as follows: In section II we lay out the basic assumptions, in Section III we present the model, in Section IV we provide a numerical example and discuss the viability of the equilibrium. Conclusions and possible extensions of the model to other industries are presented in the last section. Technical material is presented in the Appendix. 3 II. Assumptions There are two types of insurance companies in the market, differing in the distribution systems they use. One employs direct underwriting, the other, independent agents. It is assumed for simplicity of exposition that if the client is insured via an independent agent, it is guaranteed that in case of damage, he or she will be reimbursed. If the client is insured via direct underwriting there is a probability (<1), but no certainty of reimbursement.3 It is commonplace that insurance contracts sometimes fail to provide appropriate coverage from the point of view of the insured. That is, the insured sometimes does not get paid even when he or she is certain they should be paid. This may occur because of insurer insolvency, or more often, from disputes between the insurer and the insured. The vast number of contested claims resolved by courts demonstrates that there exists a significant probability that a claim will not be covered. Also, delays in payments which often occur are tantamount to partial default (see Doherty and Schlesinger, 1990). An important task of the agent is to help the client in settling claims. This is necessary because sometimes damages are not clear-cut, and contracts do not always encompass all eventualities. We assume that every agent makes an effort to settle claims. The amount of effort is determined so as to optimize the agent’s value function. The more effort expended, the better the claims settlements for the clients are, and hence the higher 3 This assumption is made to simplify the analysis and can be relaxed. A necessary condition for our claim is that a > d, where a and d are the probabilities of reimbursement for the independent agent and direct underwriter, respectively. We show in Appendix 2 that the separating equilibrium results can also be obtained in this case. Analysis of the case of certain reimbursement has an additional advantage as it allows comparison of the deductible choice in our case with the more traditional models of deductible choice (see, e.g., Mossin, 1968) which assume a guaranteed repayment. 4 is the reputation of the agent, as well as the future demand for his/her services. On the other hand, the effort invested by the agent for settling claims is costly to the agent. We assume that the benefit and cost functions of effort are about the same for both types of agents. However, costs of reimbursement of claims may differ: in contrast with independent agents, direct underwriters experience higher costs since payments to their clients are made by their own firm. It is, therefore, reasonable to assume that the direct underwriters make less effort to help their clients settle claims compared with independent agents. Consequently, we assume that clients using the independent agent system enjoy higher probability of reimbursement. We denote by A the excess (effort) costs that the independent agent chooses to incur in claims settlement. For the direct underwriter these costs are assumed to be zero. It is also assumed that if a damage occurs, its amount is known and fixed, denoted here by K. We assume there are two types of potential insurance buyers in the market: Highrisk (H) clients and Low risk (L) clients, differing in the probability of incurring a damage. The probabilities of damages for insureds of types H and L are denoted P H and PL, respectively. All potential insureds are assumed to be risk averse with exponential utility function with risk aversion measure . (This assumption is made only to facilitate the numerical examples, and does not affect the qualitative results). All clients are small (and hence price takers), and have full information about contracts available from all insurers. Each firm offers a contract, or a menu of contracts, from which the insured may choose just one. The objective of the firm is to maximize its expected profits (implying all firms are risk neutral). Perfect competition drives insurers to provide the optimal form 5 of insurance contract, which under the assumptions made above, is full coverage above a deductible (see, Arrow, 1963). Thus, each firm provides contracts of the form [D, (D)] which specify the deductible D and the associated price (D). Insurers can provide any deductible in the range [0,K].4 Full information concerning prices and contracts available forces all contracts with the same deductible D to have the same price. Under competition, the profits under all contracts available in the market are driven to zero. III. The Model If a separating equilibrium exists where the only clients buying from independent agents are the riskier clients and those buying from direct underwriting are the safer ones, and if expected profits are zero, the pricing formulas become: a(D) = PH[KD + A], (1) for the independent agent system, and: d(D) = PL[(KD)], (2) for direct underwriting. Next, we derive the optimal contract for each system, based on which we infer the contracts to be offered in equilibrium. The optimal deductible that can be offered in a direct underwriting system for an insured of type i, i = H, L, can be evaluated by The function (D) must satisfy -1 <' <0, where ' denotes differentiation with respect to D. ' <0 since a higher deductibles implies lower payments to the insured. ' >-1 since otherwise the marginal pay for a $1 of a deductible equals or exceeds $1. This will not be worthwhile unless the probability of damage is 1, which rules out insurance. 4 6 maximizing his/her expected utility subject to the pricing function d(D). The deductible is calculated by choosing D so as to maximize: Ei{U[W|direct]} = Pi{U[W0-d(D)-D] + (1-)U[W0-d(D)-K]} + (1-Pi)U[W0-d(D)], for i=H,L, (3) where Ei denotes expectations of a type i client, d(D) denotes the pricing function under the direct underwriting system, W denotes the insured (random) final wealth, W0 denotes initial wealth, and U(.) the client’s utility function. The assumption of an exponential utility function implies (see Appendix 1) that the optimal deductible for an insured i (i = H, L) with a probability of damage, Pi, buying from direct underwriting is given by: D*id = (1/)ln{-d/((1+d)) [((1-Pi)/Pi)+(1-)exp(K)]} (4) where ’d denotes the derivative of d(D) with respect to D. The expected utility of a client i, (i = H,L) buying a policy from the independent agent system is given by: Ei{U[W|Agent]} = PiU[W0-a (D)-D]+ (1-Pi)U[W0-a (D)], (5) where a(D) denotes the pricing function in the independent agent system. The optimal deductible for this client is obtained by choosing D to maximize the above expression subject to the pricing function a(D) and is given (see Appendix 1) by: D*ia = (1/)ln{- [ a/(1+a)] [(1-Pi)/Pi)]}, 7 (6) The pricing functions (1) and (2) imply that a and d, equal -PH, and -PL, respectively. 5 Inserting these values into (4) and (6) we obtain: D*Ha = (1/)Ln[ (1-PH) / (1-PH) ] = 0 (7) D*Ld = (1/)ln{ [(1-PL) + PL((1-)/)exp(K)] /(1-PL)} (8) and Note that in the above scenario, as in Mossin (1968), the optimal deductible for the insured in the case of the independent agency system is zero when the insurer has zero profits. In the case of direct underwriting however, the optimal deductible is strictly positive. The reason is that buying insurance from direct underwriters does not eliminate all risks even if the deductible is zero because of the non-guaranteed reimbursement.6 Moreover because of uncertain reimbursement, the lowest wealth (“worst eventuality”) that could be obtained is (W0-K-d(D)), which, in the case of fair pricing equals [W0-KPL(K-D)]. The value of this wealth is minimized when D equals zero and the risk averse insured who wants to avoid this alternative chooses a positive deductible.7 It is shown below that the assumption of perfect competition which leads to zero expected profits, and the provision of optimal deductibles for the insured, results in a reactive separating equilibrium given a wide range of parameters values (cf., Riley, 5 If the monopolistic competition drives the profits of all firms to the same proportion k above costs, then the pricing formulas become:a (D) = PH(1+k)(K-D +A), and,d (D) = (1+k)PL(K-D). The corresponding optimal deductibles are then given by: D*Ha =(1/)ln{ (1+k)(1-PH) / [1-(1+k)PH] }, and D*Ld=(1/)ln{ (1+k)[ (1-PL) + PL(1-)exp(K) ] /[(1-(1+k)PL] }. All the results carry through to this case. 6 Doherty and Schlesinger (1990) also analyzed optimal contracts when reimbursement is uncertain. 7 Another way to see why D*Ld> 0 must be positive, is to consider the effect of a marginal increase, in the deductible from zero for type L clients. This decreases the premium by PL, and hence increases the wealth of the client by PL in all states of nature, but also decreases his or her wealth by in the case of damage and reimbursement (with a probability of P L). However, the positive effect on utility of the lower premium is higher than the negative effect on utility of the lower reimbursement. This occurs because the benefits of a lower price are obtained also when the client has a damage and is not reimbursed, a case where the final wealth is extremely low and hence the marginal utility loss is very high. 8 1979). The concept of a reactive equilibrium has been shown to be an appropriate equilibrium concept in situations such as the one discussed here. It applies where a Nash equilibrium may not exist, that is, for situations where for any potential equilibrium contract, deviations may be profitable.8 The Nash equilibrium makes the strong assumption that other firms remain passive to such deviations. Reactive equilibrium has been introduced to “correct” for that passivity by postulating that a firm which considers diverging from equilibrium, can anticipate that other firms will react to its action. Consequently, the firm will not deviate if it anticipates that competitors’ reactions may annul any benefit from its initial deviation. In the situation discussed in this paper, a (reactive) separating equilibrium is obtained by direct underwriting firms offering lower prices and higher deductibles. The price/deductible combination should be set so as to deter the high risk clients from buying policies from direct underwriting firms. To that end, the difference in prices between the agent system and direct underwriting should be set so that it is worthwhile for the low risk clients (but not for high risk clients) to face a higher probability of no reimbursement and a higher deductible. The formal conditions for a reactive separating equilibrium are proved in the following proposition. Proposition 1: If inequalities (9) and (10) below hold, then the contract [D*Ld, (D*Ld)] defined by (2) and (8) and offered by direct underwriters, and the contract [D*Ha, (D*Ha)] defined by (1) and (7) and offered by the independent agent system, provide a reactive 8 This concept has been used widely in finance and insurance (see, e.g., Miller and Rock, 1985, Cresta and Laffont, 1987, and Venezia, 1991). 9 separating equilibrium. All high-risk clients choose the independent agent system while low risk clients opt for direct underwriting. EH{U[W0-X-a(D*Ha)]} > EH{U[W0-X-d(D*Hd)]}, (9) EL{U[W0-X-a(D*La)]} < EL{U[W0-X-d(D*Ld)]}, (10) where X is the random variable denoting damages. Proof: To show that the set of contracts is an equilibrium set, one needs to show that if these contracts are offered, neither buyers nor sellers have an incentive to purchase a different contract. That is, buyers do not have an incentive to buy other contracts and sellers do not have an incentive to offer other contracts. Suppose the parameters of the utility functions and loss distributions are such that inequalities (9) and (10) hold. In this case, high-risk clients prefer the optimal contract under the independent agent system [D*Ha, (D*Ha)] whereas the safer clients prefer the contract offered by the direct underwriters, [D*Ld, d (D*Ld)]. Next, we show that the independent agents and the direct underwriters offer the above-specified contracts without deviating from their terms. Suppose a firm in the agent system9 considers deviating from equilibrium by offering the new contract [D’,(D’)] that will attract low risk clients only. Such a contract can usually be constructed. Competition however will drive the price of this contract to equal its fair value, and hence (D’) must equal PL[K-D’+A]. This contract is not sustainable since another firm in the independent agent system can come up with a better contract for the low risk clients. It can offer [D*La, (D*La)] which was derived in (6) as the optimal among all fairly priced 10 contracts. Therefore, the firm that initially deviates from equilibrium gains nothing from this deviation as its contract is merely eliminated by other contracts. The contract [D*La, (D*La)] will not prevail either, since by (10), it is dominated by the contract [D*Ld, (D*Ld)] offered by direct underwriters. It thus follows that firms do not deviate from the equilibrium contract [D*Ha, (D*Ha)] offered by independent agents, and [D*Ld, (D*Ld)] offered by direct underwriters. QED IV. Sensitivity to the Parameters and a Numerical Example We now examine the conditions (parameters) under which a reactive equilibrium is reached. The key to reaching this equilibrium is that the clients separate, namely, that inequalities (9) and (10) hold. To find when this occurs, we examine the clients' monetary tradeoffs when choosing between the systems. A risky client, H, who chooses the independent agents system over the direct underwriters, actually prefers paying the additional price a - d in order to avoid the chance of losing (KD) with probability PH(1). This probability denotes the chance that a direct underwriter’s client will suffer a damage and will not get paid. In a similar situation, the client of the independent agent will receive (KD). From (1) and (2) it follows that for a given deductible, D, the extra price to be paid, a d, is: a d = PH (KD+A) PL (KD), (11) which, after some rearrangement of terms can be written as: a d = (KD) (PH PL) + PL (1) (K D) + APH 9 (12) The argument for firms in the direct underwriting system is very similar, and hence will not be repeated 11 We note from (12) that the higher the difference (PH PL) between the probabilities, the higher the differences in prices. It then becomes more difficult to convince the high-risk clients not to mimic the low risk clients by buying policies from direct underwriters. If, on the other hand, the difference between PH and PL is small (in the extreme PH = PL), both type of clients would again want to buy from the same system. If A is low, both types patronize independent agents; if A is large, both types buy from direct underwriters. Another way to view the choice between the systems is as follows: the direct system describes a “no frills” system without guaranteed reimbursement. The agent system describes a “deluxe” system, which offers extra insurance against no repayment. The riskier clients want to buy this extra insurance, for an additional price. The larger (P H PL), the higher the additional price paid for the extra insurance, and the lower the chance that the high risk clients want to buy it. To examine what happens when PH and PL are very close it is convenient to set PH = PL . In this case the two types of clients exhibit similar behavior, either both buy the extra insurance or both decline it (again depending on A). This is also the case, by continuity argumentation, when PH is close to PL but not identical to it. For the purpose of illustration we present below the equilibrium contracts for some sets of parameters. The following parameters are considered: PH = .05, K = 500, PL = .01, = .01, A = 10, = .9. In this case the optimal contracts are given by: D*Ha = 0, D*La = 0, D*Hd = 57.2, D*Ld = 13.9, *a = 25.5, *d = 4, and the corresponding expected utilities are: here. 12 EH{U[W0-X -a(D*Ha)]} = -1.29, EH{U[W0-X-d(D*Hd)]} = -1.83 EL{U[W0-X -d(D*Ld)]} = -1.19 , EL{U[W0-X-a(D*La)]} = -1.29 It can be seen from the above data that the proposed contracts provide a separating equilibrium. The high-risk clients enjoy a higher expected utility when buying through the independent agent system rather than from direct underwriting, and the reverse is true for the safer clients. It can also be verified that the expected profits of the insurers in the agent system, as well as those in the direct distribution system, are zero. As suggested in the above Proposition, a separating reactive equilibrium is achieved. In Appendix 2 we show that a separating equilibrium exists even when reimbursement is not certain in the independent agent system, but is more likely than in the direct underwriting system. To evaluate how robust is the existence of a separating equilibrium to the set of parameters chosen for the illustration, we looked at the range of parameters that allows separation. Table 1 shows the range of values that each variable can assume (holding the other variables constant at their initial values described above), while a separating equilibrium is still maintained. Table 1 shows that the parameters could change considerably and the equilibrium is still maintained. In particular, the existence of a separating equilibrium is only weakly sensitive to the fixed collection costs. This can be attributed in part to the low chances of damages. The difference between high risk and low risk clients’ respective chances of damage must be reasonably large to prevent the riskier clients from choosing the less expensive direct underwriting. Finally, one relatively surprising result is that the highest 13 value of damage, K, permitting a separating equilibrium is bounded from above. The reason for this is that when the possible value of damage is too high, even lower risk clients prefer the independent agent system. V. Conclusion We have shown that the coexistence of the independent agent system alongside the lower cost exclusive agent system may be plausibly explained by the different clienteles being catered by the two systems. Our model predicts that insureds in the independent agent system have on average higher claims. The empirical implications of the model agree with the observation of Berger, Cummins and Weiss (1995) that the independent agent system is more costly than the direct underwriting, but that the differences in cost efficiency are less than price efficiency differentials. This observation reinforces the argument that independent agents provide a different and/or a higher quality product. Future research should attempt to test the predictions of the theory directly, namely that ceteris paribus, clients of direct underwriting have a lower incidence or lower levels of claims than policy holders of independent agents. 10 Independent agents often "sell" themselves as protectors of the insured in case of a claim (this of course is not a proof they are right). In one commercial on Israeli radio, the commentator asks: "In case you are sued, who are you going to hire for your lawyer, the prosecutor? Of course not, then why would you have a direct underwriter handle your 10 As a matter of casual empiricism, we have the following piece of data. In Israel, there are only two firms (established in 1996) that sell through direct agents: AIG, and "Direct Insurance". In 1997, the percentages of these firms' premiums, out of all firms' premiums in property and liability insurance were 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively (Israel Insurance Association, Financial Reports Analysis, 1998). Their corresponding claims' payments were 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. This may indicate that relative to the 14 claim?" In another commercial they describe a medical patient in need, trying to call some anonymous hospital to help him in his predicament. He either gets evasive answers, or an impossible answering machine. The announcer then says: "In medical need you will not call the 'direct hospital services,' you will call your personal physician, why would you act differently in case you need help in settling claims? Call your independent insurance agent!" Note that our framework explains the existence of the independent agent system by these agents’ superior claims service, whereas Posey and Yavas explain it by the search services offered by independent agents. As search technology continues to advance and consumers are increasingly able to buy insurance via the Internet, the relative merit of the differential claims service based framework may become apparent. The implications of this study can be extended to other industries that employ different distribution channels, such as security brokerage firms and health care providers. Security brokerage firms are often classified into two types: discount brokers and full service brokers. The latter are more expensive, and unlike the former, provide also investment recommendations. In general, as is the case with insurance agents, brokerage firms provide many services to their customers. In addition to the execution of trades, they also provide services such as margin lending, advice, bookkeeping, and holding of the stocks for the client (see, e.g., Brown, 1996). Brokerage firms choose the bundle they offer. They can use the bundle to separate clients with differing unknown traits (risk tolerance, informativeness, income, etc.)11 In analogy with our study, one could test what traits are separated by the different types of premiums they charged direct insurers had either fewer and/or lower claims than firms using independent agents. 15 distributions systems by comparing the portfolios of clients of discount brokers to those of full service ones, and examine whether they differ in their risks, performance (which may indicate the degree to which they are informed), or other attributes.12 The less informed investors (analogous to the riskier clients in the insurance industry) need the investment counseling of full service brokers more than the better-informed investors do. Consequently, the less-informed turn to full service brokers more frequently, but their performance lags behind that of the more informed investors who use discount brokers. In the health care industry there are also two main distribution systems: HMOs which provide few frills and are usually less expensive, and private insurers, who are more expensive but provide better services. As in the case of the insurance industry and brokerage firms, it can be conjectured that the two systems separate between different types of clients, according to risk, risk aversion, social status, education, income, etc. (Browne and Doerpinghaus, 1993, find adverse selection in HMO’s although they did not compare clienteles of HMO’s to those of private insurers, an endeavor worth pursuing). In all these cases (the insurance industry, health care providers, and brokerage houses) there is a common trend of unbundling of services. The more expensive system that provided more services, has been established first and enjoyed exclusivity for a long period. The less expensive systems came later, offered fewer services and threatened to erode the market share of the veteran systems. However, the more expensive systems were not eliminated. For example, in 1994 independent agency insurers controlled 52 percent of the total market (see Bests’s Aggregates and Averages 1995), and full service 11 See Brennan and Chordia, 1994, Irvine, Kandel and Wiener, 1997. Shapira and Venezia (1998) found significant differences between the patterns of behavior of investors in Israel, between those who had their portfolios managed by their brokers and those who managed their portfolios on their own. 12 16 brokers still accounted for 75% of all individual investor trading in 1992 (Wall Street Journal, September 18, 1992). Different distribution systems provide different bundles of services according to the different preferences and attributes of the clients. One may expect to observe different systems coexisting, while the costs of operating these systems differ considerably. 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Venezia, Itzhak, “Tie-in Arrangements of Life Insurance and Savings: an Economic Rationale, The Journal of Risk and Insurance”, 58 (1991): 383-396 21 Appendix 1 The Optimal Deductible Differentiating (3) with respect to D and assuming U(W) = -exp(-W), one obtains: Ei[U (W|Direct)]/D = -exp(-Wo) {’d exp (d) [Piexp(D) + Pi(1-)exp(K) + (1-Pi)] + exp(d)PiexpD)} (A1) = -exp (-Wo)exp(d) {Piexp(D)(1+’d) + (1-Pi)’d + Pi (1-)exp(K)} (A2) Equating the derivative to 0 and rearranging terms one obtains:13 D*id=(1/)ln{-’d’d))[((1-Pi)/Pi)+(1-)eexp(K)]} (A3) We next provide conditions under which the second derivative becomes negative. 2Ei[U(W|Direct)]/D2 = -exp(-W0){’dexp(d) G + exp(dG’} (A4) where G is the term in curly brackets in (A2). From (A1) it follows that at the optimum G equals 0, and hence the sign of the second derivative is determined by the sign of - G’. G’, however, is given by: G’ = Pexp(D)(1 + ’d) + Piexp(D)’’d + (1-Pi)’’d (A5) Assuming that d is linear (e.g.d = (1+k)Pi(K-D)), and since we have already assumed that 'd >- 1, it follows that G’ > 0 and that iU(W|DirectD2 < 0. 13 The optimal deductible in case the client buys from the agent system is obtained as a special case of the above analysis with = 1, and a replacing d., and to save space we do not repeat the derivations. 22 Appendix 2 Uncertain reimbursement in the agent system If there is uncertainty in the reimbursement of the client in the agent system, then this system becomes a special case of direct underwriting. In this case we denote the respective probabilities of reimbursement by a and d, where 1 > a > d The expected utility of a client of type i, i = H, L, buying from system s, s=a, d (where a and d denote the agent system and direct underwriting, respectively), becomes in this case: Ei{-exp(-W)|s} =-{Pi[sexp(-(W0-s-D)) + (1-s)exp(-(W0-s-K))]+ (1-Pi)-exp(-(W0-s))}, for i=H,L, s= a,d The optimal deductibles are given in this case by: D*is =(1/)ln{-’s’s))[((1-Pi)/Pi)+Pi(1-)exp(K)]} for i=H,L, s= a,d If the prices are given by: a(D) = PHa(K-D +A),and d(D) = PLd(K-D), then the equilibrium optimal deductibles are given by D*Ld = (1/) ln{ [(1-PL) + PL(1-d)exp(K)] / dPL) } D*Ha = (1/) ln{ [(1-PH) + PH(1-a)exp(K)] / aPH) } The analysis thereafter is quite similar to the case of sure reimbursement for the agent system. One difference which is somewhat tangential to the analysis is that with certain reimbursement the deductibles in the agent system are lower than in direct underwriting (in the agent system they must be zero). This, however, is not necessarily true with uncertain reimbursement. The reason being that the optimal deductible is an increasing function of the chances of damage. This occurs because as the probability of damage increases, so does the price. Existence of a separating equilibrium can be shown with the parameters of Table 1, even if the probability of reimbursement in the agent system is less than 1. Actually as long as this probability is higher than .939, a separating equilibrium exists. 23