Forecasting earthquakes using the IRIS Earthquake Browser
Steps :
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Select a region of the world that is of interest to you
Interrogate the earthquake catalog to determine the number of various sized
events that occur in a 25 year period for your region.
o Start with a minimum magnitude of 8.5 and then decrease the magnitude
in 0.5 magnitude intervals
Make a 3 column table of
o Magnitude
o total number of earthquakes greater than or equal to a specified magnitude
o number of earthquakes/year
Plot this information on the graph provided (or use Excel)
Magnitude
Number of events >= magnitude
Number/year
Questions to discuss with your partner
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Do you see any patterns or trends in earthquake occurrence in the 2 regions?
How might this information help to forecast future earthquakes?
What is the likelihood that an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater (which can
cause severe damage) will occur in the next year in the 2 regions?
How might this information be useful to society?
Is there a risk for forecasting earthquake likelihood using a data set that is only 25
years?