ELETRICITY SUPPLY OPTIONS & CONSEQUENCES
By Alex Ham - October 2009
Electricity Supply – Western Cape
Population: ± 5.1 million
Peak electricity demand: 5100 MW
Supply sources are:> Koeberg – 2 nuclear reactors (@950MW)
(one unit has to be stopped for 2m/18m)
> Power via Transmission lines (Gauteng)
(availability average: 98.8%)
> Gas Turbines (5) Atlantis
> Gas Turbines (5) Mossel Bay
With 2 Koeberg M/C
With 1 Koeberg M/C
Peaking supply – Pump storage
Palmiet (2)
Steenbras
1900MW
2500MW
750MW
750MW
______
5900MW
4000MW
400MW
165MW
565MW
Gas Turbines – (Crisis measure) by Eskom
Kerosene fuel consumption for 5 M/C - 288000l/hr
@ fuel cost of R4.50/l - R1.3 million/hr
173c per kW/hr –fuel cost only
Equivalent coal station fuel cost for same output
R150,000-00/hr
Electricity Generation – Options
Solar Power
Two systems – Photo-Voltaic direct generation
Solar-thermal indirect generation
1. Capital cost:
2. Availability:
R40,000/kW
± 9 hrs/day
To meet the average electricity demand for Western Cape for 9hrs/day would need an
area of:
3800MW x 25,000m² = 95million sq. m
i.e. an area of 9,7km x 9,7km
Capital cost would be (R150 billion).
The largest single P-V installation in the world is in Portugal 5200PV Panels
Max output 11MW – Cost R48,000/kW (R528 million) 150 acres
Wind Power
1. Capital cost: R25,000/kW (large units > 1.5MW
2. Availability – only 15% of 24 hours on average (as demonstrated from experience
world-wide including over 5 yrs at Darling RSA)
Using all the potential (windy) sites in RSA would yield 19,700MW peak supply; however,
due to the fact that output could only be maintained on average for 15% of the time this
would equate to meeting only 12% of RSA’s present total electricity needs.
Eskom has 3MW but plans to install 100MW have had to be postponed due to lack of funds.
The latest 5MW prototype has a 3-blade rotor diameter of 115m and a tower height of
100m.
Wave Power
Most practical designs available utilise the oscillating water column principle and a low
pressure wind/air turbine.
Mean annual power level varies from 18kW/m to 40kW/m wave crest height.
If we were to utilise 100km of coastline we could generate on average 1400MW.
1. Capital Cost R37,000/kW +(very high maintenance costs)
Unfortunately as electricity consumers require power 24 hrs/day we must have a system
which is capable of generating electricity when the solar and wind installations provide
reduced or zero output. This is what is called BASE LOAD generation. We have basically
only two choices here:
Coal or Nuclear
Coal fired Power Stations
Capital cost R20,000/kW(with a 15% reserve, plant margin availability is 100%)
(Unit planned outage – large units 3m every 5 years)
Nuclear Power Stations – PWR
Capital cost R30,000/kW + (allowance for decommissioning)
(unit outage – 3 months every 18 months for refuelling)
 There are now some 440 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide.
 24 new reactors under construction
 127 new reactors in final planning mode and to be completed within next 10 yrs.
Fuel availability - Long term
Coal: Whilst a 4800 MW power station (Madupi) will consume 2400 tons/hr we have
adequate reserves to last RSA for the next 150-250 yrs.
Eskom used total of 125 Million tons coal in 2008 and the Chinese 25 times this!
Nuclear: There is an inexhaustible supply of the raw uranium on Earth
1kg of enriched uranium fuel has the equivalent energy as 120 tons of coal.
1kg of coal will boil a kettle of water 4 times.
1kg of enriched uranium will boil the same kettle every hour for 60 years.
Fuel cost comparisons – on equal energy output basis
Enriched uranium fuel (Koeberg) – 1.0 ………………..7c (SA) per kWh
Low grade coal (Eskom)
- 1.7 …………………10c (SA) per kWh
Fuel oil (Kerosene)
- 24.7 ……………….173c (SA) per kWh
Natural gas
- 18.5 ……………….130c (SA) per kWh
We all pay 69c per kWh for domestic electricity, but expect this to double within 5 years.
Subsidisation of Renewable Energy Generation
RSA’s National Energy Regulator (NERSA) has decreed that for existing installations the
electricity purchase price paid to IPP’s (Wind and Solar) are fixed for 20 yrs at
R2.10/kWh for solar
R1.25/kWh for Wind
(Eskom’s pooled generating cost is now 25c/kWh, excluding gas turbine operating costs at
180c/kWh)
Wind installations in RSA
1. The Darling Wind Power Co – installed 5.2MW utilising a substantial Danish grant.
NB.The Eskom 3.0MW installation, which cost R100m in 2002, received no subsidy.
2. No commercial solar installation in operation yet.
3. Co-generation using waste bagasse & waste wood at Sugar Mills & Sappi/Mondi has
at times supplied power into the national grid but to my knowledge get no subsidy.
Subsidised – Renewable Energy Generation – Overseas
Germany has installed the most wind power as well as solar power PV in the world.
Wind 21,000MW (USA – 14,000MW, UK – 3000MW)
Solar 25,000MW
IPP in Germany are paid 456 (SA cents)/kWh - Solar
IPP in Germany are paid 180 (SA cents)/kWh - Wind
IPP in RSA are paid 70 (SA cents)/kWh - Wind
Consumers in Cape Town have the option to buy “Green Power” from the municipality
at a premium of 35c/kWh above the normal tariff.
Pollution:
The worst pollution, which impacts the most on mankind is:
1. Water pollution caused by industry with cadmium, arsenic, lead, mercury and
complex chemical compounds being discharged into water, streams, dams, sea.
2. Ground water pollution cause by leeching of waste dump-sites – old and new.
3. Nuclear waste generated at nuclear stations is strictly controlled and encapsulated
in SS drums which are then encapsulated in concrete and buried at Vaalputs site.
Negligible operational releases
4. Air pollution caused by fossil fuel fired power stations.
a) Particulate latter – controlled
b) Nitrous oxide – brown haze – cars!
c) Sulphur dioxide – new plants have lime scrubbers
d) Carbon dioxide
Govt & Eskom – lost opportunity
The Eskom initiative to encourage the use of solar water heating is frankly a disgrace
and they are missing a golden opportunity.
In order to supply the electricity required by each 3kW geyser Eskom needs to invest
generating capacity costing at least R20,000/kW) – R60,000.00.
An efficient solar water heater that does not require a back-up/booster electric
heating element will cost R12,000.00 to install. Eskom offers you a grant of
R3663.53.
They could afford to offer consumers who install such solar water heaters the full
costs and thereby still save themselves some R50,000/consumer.
Each of Eskom’s new large power stations of 4800MW, which is budgeted to cost R87
Million could be delayed by installing only 1,600,000 solar heaters. They would also
save operating cost, and pollution.
Pebble-bed Reactor – Progress
The Govt & Eskom have already spent some R4.0 Billion in the design/development of
this HTGR.
 They started with a 60MW unit design and changed it to 165MW output.
 The pressure vessel/165MW was 28.5m ht x 6mØ. Weight 1030 tons.
 Operating temperature 950°C.
 Both the European and RSA licensing authorities would not approve the design
because of nuclear concerns.
 They have now scaled it down to 70MW - 750°, and as long as the Govt keeps
funding the project they hope to do a complete redesign.
 The application focus has now changed away from electricity generation to
chemical industry applications, e.g. coal gasification.
The Chinese are already building a much smaller simplified version and they will be
completed within 2 yrs.
Global Warming
Some scientific facts
1. The present (average global) temperature is 7°C below the average for most of the
last four recent interglacials and 3°C lower than during the MINOAN, ROMAN &
Medieval Warming periods.
2. No greenhouse catastrophe occurred in the Cambrian Period when the CO2 was 20
times higher than today and the temperature was 7°C warmer than today.
3. The major temperature measuring stations around the world have recorded no
global warming since 1998, in fact global average temperatures have fallen.
4. Since the Kyoto Protocol in February 2007 US$10 billion/month has been spent
wastefully in a vain attempt to avert a speculated 0.5°C temperature rise by 2050!
5. Mother Nature does not build Gardens of Eden for the eco-conscious. She has given
us at least 50 mass extinctions. She is the mother of catastrophe and constantly
changes the unwritten rules. The dynamic geological structure of the earth and the
overwhelmingly powerful influence of our sun are the two variables controlling
changes on earth.
6. There is a pretty dismal history of experts making predictions about the end of
planet earth and other frightening catastrophes. Most predictions including those
of climate zealots, have religious over tones. Pessimistic predictions attract much
interest and there is always a crowd ready to listen and believe.
7. The New Testament tells us (Matthew 16:28) that the world will end before the
death of the last Apostle – but it didn’t!
8. Human-induced global warming is a popular belief because it offers the satisfaction
of righteousness without actually having to do anything. It is now becoming a
pseudoscience fully exploited by certain industries and many politicians (Gore).
May I suggest you read:
Heaven and earth, global warming the missing science, by
Professor Ian Plimer