Climate and river flows in the Eastern Nile (EN) are highly variable, with streamflows varying by as much as +/-
30% in the Ethiopian highlands from year to year. The region is thus prone to extremes of droughts and floods.
Major floods in the region directly result in loss of life and significant economic damages, particularly for the poor who frequently inhabit vulnerable floodplain areas. Floods result in loss of crops, cattle and agricultural machinery, loss of houses and property, displacement of communities, deterioration of health conditions, and disruption of social life. Over the longer term, the repeated economic disruptions associated with flooding undermine poverty alleviation efforts, disrupt sustained economic growth, and are a source of risk that inhibits investment in economic activity.
Despite the impacts and transboundary nature of riverine flooding in the Eastern Nile, while there is some flood warning activity in individual countries, there is no integrated or cooperative flood warning system for the Eastern
Nile basin. Moreover, current flood mitigation efforts largely focus on emergency response during major disasters.
Floodplain management activities to reduce the susceptibility to flooding are limited at the national level and there are no mechanisms to collaboratively identify or plan mitigation measures at the regional level. Advance warning of imminent flood events to floodplain dwellers at the community level is limited and often ineffective.
Improved capabilities to forecast rainfall and flow, with agreed mechanisms to disseminate information, would increase warning time. This information, along with well-planned flood preparedness programs in each country, could reduce damages and loss of life in Ethiopia and Sudan, and enhance Aswan Dam operations for water conservation and flood mitigation in Egypt. Transboundary cooperation would greatly enhance flood management in all EN countries, and provide valuable experience in sharing information and jointly managing the river on an operational basis. This will lay a solid foundation for broader regional cooperation in integrated water resources management and development.
The FPEW project is an agreed project within the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) of the Nile
Basin Initiative (NBI). The NBI, launched in February 1999, is a regional initiative which includes nine Nile riaparian countries and provides an agreed framework to fight poverty and promote sustainable development.
ENSAP, which includes Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, is an investment oriented sub-basin level program. To initiate a regional, integrated, multi-purpose program, the Eastern Nile riparians have identified a first set of investments in the areas of integrated water resources management, flood management, power generation and interconnection, watershed management, and irrigation and drainage.

Due to the devastating impacts of hydrologic variability on the people and economies in the region, in March 2001, the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (ENCOM) requested that funding be sought to advance work in flood management. In 2004, ENCOM decided to fast-track the FPEW project to show tangible results of Nile Basin collaboration on the ground. The proposed project has evolved from national and regional consultations, and is being prepared by national and regional teams.
The Bank has been actively engaged in supporting the NBI since its inception as a means of promoting regional stability and cooperation, and unlocking the development potential of the Nile. The FPEW project is particularly appropriate for Bank support due to the transboundary nature of flooding, the potential to visibly demonstrate the benefits of regional cooperation, and the potential to directly impact the poor.
Objectives . The development objective of the Project is to reduce human suffering and damages, as well as capture the benefits of excess flood waters, resulting from flooding in the Eastern Nile. As a first joint flood project among the EN countries, the project will primarily focus on risk management and non-structural approaches to reducing the impacts of riverine floods, including floodplain management and mitigation planning, flood forecasting and warning, and emergency preparedness and response at regional, national and community levels. This will contribute to the longer term goal of establishing a comprehensive and regional approach to flood management, which integrates watershed, river and floodplain management and incorporates a wide range of structural and nonstructural flood mitigation options within a broad, multipurpose framework
Expected Results.
Expected results from the project are likely to include:
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Assessment of the vulnerability and flood risk in the EN region to support flood mitigation and preparedness planning and ENSAP investment planning.
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Improved floodplain management for major urban damage centers and flood-prone rural communities at the national level, and identification of transboundary options for enhancing flood management at the regional level.
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Operational flood forecasting systems in the EN countries with appropriate compatibility and agreed mechanisms for exchanging information.
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Enhanced emergency preparedness and response at national and community levels, and joint emergency preparedness and response plans at the regional level.
Proposed focus and scope. The Eastern Nile basin is complex and broad in geographic scope, encompassing a number of major sub-basins (the Abbay-Blue Nile, Tekeze-Atbara, Baro-Akobo, portions of the White Nile, and the
Main Nile). The nature of flooding varies from broad scale riverine floods, to localized flash flooding, to wetlands inundation. The extent of flooding, and response to it, also varies by country. Given this complexity, this first joint flood project will follow a phased approach to preparation and implementation. Project preparation will include the development of a broad flood risk reduction strategy, along with project implementation plans for priority components/activities in selected geographic area(s). Based on lessons learned and demonstrated success during implementation, the project scope and activities can be expanded as appropriate and/or additional projects can be
‘spun off’’.
The expected scope and geographic focus of the project, as agreed during national and regional consultations, is summarized below. Potential activities will be prioritized within country context.
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Forecasting activities, will focus on riverine flooding in the Abbay-Blue Nile, Tekeze-Atbara, Main Nile systems.

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Mitigation planning and emergency preparedness and response activities will vary by country, with focus on selected riverine areas: o Ethiopia – selected flood-prone areas, particularly in the Lake Tana area o Sudan – major urban damage centers and rural communities along the Main and Blue Nile 1 o Egypt – enhance High Aswan Dam (HAD) operations to maximize flood protection and to mitigate downstream risk.
Proposed Components. The project is intended to address the transboundary aspects of technical, institutional, social and capacity-building issues related to flood preparedness in the Eastern Nile. Effective preparedness also necessitates national and community focused work on flood issues. Likely major components are summarized below. The relative importance of each component varies with need and the nature of flooding in each EN countries
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Flood mitigation planning involves taking proactive, ongoing measures to reduce the risk from and impact of floods, while enhancing beneficial effects. This component will likely include practical activities to identify flood risk and implement community-based plans to reduce flood damages and capture environmental benefits.
A range of potential activities include: vulnerability analysis and flood mapping; floodplain and land use management; small scale structural approaches; relocation of flood-prone communities; communication of flood warnings; and improved reservoir operations. Planned involvement and mobilization of stakeholders (e.g, affected communities, public services, private sector and civil society groups), public education programs, and capacity building are critical elements of flood mitigation planning. Transboundary options for reducing flood impacts will also be identified.
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Flood forecasting, warning and communication includes the collection, analysis and effective dissemination of flood forecast and warning information. An important focus of this component would be to enhance the flood forecasting capabilities of the EN countries. Building on existing capacity, forecasting capability is likely to initially be developed around distributed, mutually compatible national centers, with agreed mechanisms for regional coordination and information exchange. Effective dissemination of flood warning information to atrisk communities, and strengthening existing institutions and community warning mechanisms, is also critical.
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Emergency preparedness and response involves the planning and conduct of a coordinated and consistent response to floods. This component would address emergency preparedness and response during and following flood events. At the country level, the component would build upon existing emergency preparedness and response procedures, strengthening existing capacities in government, civil society and the community. At the transboundary level, the component could focus on developing regional emergency preparedness and response plans and coordinating information exchange among the Eastern Nile countries and with the international community during flood events.
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Regional Component is envisioned to maintain the transboundary focus of the Project and enhance regional cooperation and collaboration. Key roles of the regional component are likely to include the coordination and facilitation of exchange of expertise, experience and information/data; human and institutional capacity development; and; technology transfer within the Basin and internationally. Coordination could be accomplished through the ‘virtual’ linking of national flood units or take the form of a small but effective regional unit. It is likely that the scope and range of regional activities will evolve over time as confidence and regional cooperation grows.
1 In Sudan, there are approximately 197 flood-prone rural communities. A phased approach, during project preparation and implementation, will be required to address these communities