Monash Weather and Climate Seminar Series Friday Mar 21st, 3pm, room 345, building 28 Seasonal tropical cyclone prediction with POAMA Kay Shelton (MWAC) The Australian Bureau of Meteorology currently uses a statistical technique to prepare predictions of seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian and South Pacific regions. These predictions are based on the historical relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific and tropical cyclone activity over the past few decades. Variations in the relationship between these two quantities that are not contained within the historical record can lead to deficiencies in future predictions. To address this issue, the Bureau of Meteorology, through the PacificAustralia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Program, is developing dynamically-based seasonal tropical cyclone predictions. Through use of the dynamical coupled model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia), changes in the climate (whatever their character or cause) are implicitly included within the predictions. This presentation will discuss the representation of tropical cyclones within the relatively coarse global climate model along with the seasonality and interannual variability of the detected tropical cyclone-like disturbances. Prospects for future predictions of seasonal tropical cyclone activity will also be discussed.