Monash Weather and Climate Seminar Series

Monash Weather and Climate Seminar
Friday Mar 21st, 3pm, room 345, building 28
Seasonal tropical cyclone prediction
with POAMA
Kay Shelton (MWAC)
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology currently uses a statistical technique to
prepare predictions of seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian and
South Pacific regions. These predictions are based on the historical
relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial
Pacific and tropical cyclone activity over the past few decades. Variations in
the relationship between these two quantities that are not contained within the
historical record can lead to deficiencies in future predictions.
To address this issue, the Bureau of Meteorology, through the PacificAustralia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Program, is developing
dynamically-based seasonal tropical cyclone predictions. Through use of the
dynamical coupled model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for
Australia), changes in the climate (whatever their character or cause) are
implicitly included within the predictions.
This presentation will discuss the representation of tropical cyclones within the
relatively coarse global climate model along with the seasonality and
interannual variability of the detected tropical cyclone-like disturbances.
Prospects for future predictions of seasonal tropical cyclone activity will also
be discussed.