The Oceanography of Intermittent HABs off the Caloosahatchee River, FL: Satellite Remote Sensing Component – Final Report Investigators: Chuanmin Hu and Frank Muller-Karger (727)5533987, hu@seas.marine.usf.edu; (727)5533335, carib@seas.marine.usf.edu Objective and Deliverables: Analyze satellite data as well as on other ancillary data (river flows), while help collect in situ data; A technical report describing the findings of this analysis will be delivered. Achievements as of May 2006: Data collection: Field data, including daily river flow rate and bi-monthly measured nutrient (N, P, NH3) concentration for the Caloosahatchee River (Lock 79) were obtained from the Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD). The data were collected by the US Corp of Engineers; Satellite data from the SeaWiFS ocean color sensor between 1998 and 2006 were processed and trimmed to cover the study region (Figure 1); Satellite data from the MODIS ocean color and temperature sensor between 2003 and 2006 were processed and trimmed to cover the study region; Satellite data from the AVHRR sensors (NOAA satellite series) between 1993 and 2006 were reprocessed to remove cloud-contaminated pixels (see below); Help was provided to collect bio-optical data from in situ sensors mounted on MARVIN Data analysis: River data (flow rate and nutrient concentration) were binned to generate a monthly timeseries between 1998-2006 and between 1998-2004, respectively (e.g. Figure 2); Satellite data were analyzed in a novel way to target the ocean color response to river flow, and not to wind-induced resuspension events. Specifically, a total of 3675 SeaWiFS data files (overpasses) between 1998 and 2006 were screened first to exclude those files when significant resuspension was found near Charlotte Harbor. Water-leaving radiance data in the red channel (670 nm, Lwn670) were examined, and all files when Lwn670 was above its monthly median value were discarded. The remaining files were used to generate monthly composite data for Lwn for the six visible channels (412, 443, 490, 510, 555, 670 nm), for chlorophyll concentration (Chl in mg m-3), and for diffuse attenuation at 490 nm (K_490, m-1); Because SeaWiFS Chl was derived using a band-ratio algorithm, in coastal waters it is interfered by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM, typically rich in rivers and coastal runoff) and also by the shallow bottom (< 30 m) if the water is relatively clear. Therefore, SeaWiFS Chl should be interpreted with caution and it should be treated as an index to indicate Chl concentration and CDOM abundance, if the shallow bottom effects are not considered. Chl monthly time-series for the pre-defined six areas (Figure 1) were extracted and correlated with river data; MODIS data cover a shorter period (2003-2006). Because of the overlap with SeaWiFS, the main purpose of using MODIS is to examine its fluorescence data products, which 1 can be used to qualitatively differentiate Chl from CDOM. Thus, MODIS data were only visually examined and no time-series analysis was performed; AVHRR data provides the longest time series to examine sea surface temperature (SST). However, because of the artifacts in the cloud-screening algorithm, residual errors are frequently found due to cloud contamination. These errors are not problematic when each individual image is examined visually, but they can cause serious bias during image composing (e.g., monthly mean) and during time-series analysis. Further, because there is no onboard GPS, there are frequent geo-referencing errors. These errors, typically in the order of several to tens of 1-km pixels, are insignificant for large scale, open ocean studies, but they can cause serious problems for small-size, coastal regions. For the latter problem, each image has been manually and visually corrected. For the former cloud contamination problem, a filter has been designed to use multi-year climatologic and 3 days median values as baselines. This filter has been applied to the entire time series (> 45,000 data files) from 1993 to 2006 to “clean” all the data, and the results were used to compose monthly means. Oct. 2004 SeaWiFS Chl Figure 1. SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentration (Chl) image for October 2004, overlaid with bathymetry lines (10, 20, 30, and 50 m) and outlines of six predefined study regions: 1: < 10 m south of Charlotte Harbor (CH); 2: 10 to 20 m south of CH; 3: 20 to 30 m south of CH; 4: < 10 m west of CH; 5: 10 to 20 m west of CH; 6: 20 to 30 m west of CH. Note that all turbidity events were discarded during image compositing. However, due to the limitation of the bio-optical algorithm and the interference of CDOM and shallow bottom, Chl may have some uncertainties and therefore should be treated as a relative index. Charlotte Harbor 5 4 6 1 2 3 2 Results Fig. 1 shows the study region, with several bathymetry lines overlaid on a SeaWiFS Chl image. Six sub-regions are outlined, from which time-series data were extracted and analyzed. A “reference” region, from offshore waters (> 2000 m deep) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico at the same latitude of Charlotte Harbor, was also examined to see similarity/contrast to these nearshore regions. Nutrients Flow rate Fig. 2 shows the river flow as well as nutrient concentrations at Lock 79 on the Caloosahatchee River. The spring 1998 high flow rate is due to the 1997-1998 El-Nino event. Except for this episodic high-flow event and the dry year of 2000, the flow data show seasonal patterns, with lows in the springs and highs in the falls. It appears that from 2002, the fall high-flow rates are increasing, possibly due to increased rainfall. Nutrient concentrations do not appear to correlate with river flow rate except for nitrite. Further, there is little inter-annual variability in nutrient concentrations. Therefore, our time-series analysis will focus on flow rates. 10000 Nitrite Phosphate Ammonia Nitrate Flow rate 5000 0 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0 (1998) 12 (1999) 24 (2000) 36 (2001) 48 (2002) 60 (2003) 72 (2004) Months since January 1998 Figure 2. Mean flow rate (ft3 s-1) and nutrient concentrations (mg L-1) measured from the Caloosahatchee River at Lock 79. Fig. 3 shows the monthly average chlorophyll concentration (Chl, mg m-3) from SeaWiFS for 2004 (after all turbidity events were removed), while Fig. 4 shows the monthly average sea surface temperature (SST, oC) patterns (1995-2005) for the region. Their seasonal change patterns appear different, possibly due to different physical, environmental, and biological forcing. For example, SST in summer is relatively homogeneous in the region, but Chl shows sharp gradient from offshore to nearshore in the same period. The time-series analysis results below clearly show the contrast between the two properties. 3 84 Jan. 2004 Feb. 2004 Mar. 2004 Apr. 2004 May. 2004 Jun. 2004 Jul. 2004 Aug. 2004 Sep. 2004 Oct. 2004 Nov. 2004 Dec. 2004 Figure 3. SeaWiFS monthly mean Chl (mg m-3) for 2004. 4 January February March April May June July August September October November December Figure 4. Sea surface temperature (SST, oC) monthly climatology for 1995-2005. 5 10000 10 1000 1 10 100 10000 1000 100 10000 1 1000 0.1 100 10000 10 1000 1 100 10000 10 1000 1 10 100 10000 1 1000 0.1 0 12 (1998) 24 (1999) 36 48 60 72 84 96 (2000) (2001) (2002) (2003) (2004) (2005) 100 Month from January 1998 Figure 5. SeaWiFS Chl (mg m-3) for Area #1 to #6 (from top to bottom; see Fig. 1 for area designation) near Charlotte Harbor and river flow rate (ft3 s-1) between 1998 and 2006. The green stars are for the Caloosahatchee River flow. 6 3 -1 10 River flow (ft s ) -3 Chl (mg m ) 1 25 1000 15 100 10000 25 1000 15 100 10000 25 1000 15 100 10000 25 1000 15 100 10000 25 1000 15 100 10000 25 1000 15 0 12 (1998) 24 (1999) 36 48 60 72 84 96 (2000) (2001) (2002) (2003) (2004) (2005) 3 -1 River flow (ft s ) 10000 o SST ( C) 35 100 Month from January 1998 Figure 6. Monthly average SST (oC) from AVHRR and MODIS for Area #1 to #6 (from top to bottom; see Fig. 1 for area designation) near Charlotte Harbor and river flow rate (ft3 s-1) between 1998 and 2006. The green stars are for the Caloosahatchee River flow. 7 Fig.5 shows that there is some seasonality in the SeaWiFS Chl patterns, with peaks typically in the fall and troughs in the spring. The seasonality is more apparent in near shore waters (Area1 and Area 4) than in offshore waters (Area 3 and Area 6). Further, the Chl temporal patterns tend to mirror or follow the river flow patterns. Indeed, a correlation analysis shows that all 6 areas are significantly correlated with the Caloosahatchee River flow (p < 0.05). A cross-correlation analysis shows that these areas are 0 to 2 months behind the river flow in their temporal patterns (Table 1). For example, for Area 1 when Chl data is shifted by one month behind river flow (Shift_Month = -1), correlation coefficient increases from 0.60 to 0.64, indicating that there is a one-month lag (relative to river flow) in the Chl temporal changes. For Area 4 and Area 5 (inside and west of Charlotte Harbor), correlation coefficient is the highest when there is no time lag. Shift_Month -3 -2 -1 0 1 Area 1 0.26 0.49 0.64 0.60 0.37 Area 2 0.30 0.47 0.59 0.52 0.34 Area 3 0.44 0.51 0.47 0.27 0.09 Area 4 0.20 0.41 0.62 0.63 0.48 Area 5 0.29 0.47 0.63 0.66 0.50 Area 6 0.48 0.58 0.58 0.50 0.32 Table 1. Correlation coefficient between SeaWiFS Chl time-series and Caloosahatchee River flow between 1998 and 2006. The column “Shift_Month” indicates the number of months shifted in the correlation analysis between the two datasets; negative numbers mean that Chl is behind river flow. Such a close relation does not exist between SST and river flow or between SST and Chl, suggesting that SST is not driven by river flow and that in general, SST plays an insignificant role in determine Chl in this region. In fact, SST shows much less inter-annual variability than Chl, and SST is out of phase with river flow (Fig. 6). Further comparison between these coastal areas and a deep-water area (> 2000 m bottom depth) clearly shows the different processes responsible for the observed Chl and SST patterns for the two regions (coastal and deep waters). Fig. 7 shows that while SST has similar seasonal patterns between the two regions, in the coastal area SST has a larger range due to its shallow bottom and high concentration of light-absorbing materials (Chl and CDOM). In contrast, Chl is nearly completely out of phase between the two regions. As shown above, Chl in the nearshore region is significantly driven by river flow, which is mainly determined by the summer rainfall. Consequently, Chl shows the maximum in the fall. In the deep water (> 2000m), however, winter mixing due to high winds plays a major role, leading to Chl maxima in the winter. Clearly, coastal and deep-water regions are dominated by different processes. 8 0.1 35 Area #5 > 2000m 25 15 0 12 (1998) 24 (1999) 36 (2000) 48 (2001) 60 (2002) 72 84 96 (2003) (2004) (2005) Month from January 1998 Figure 7. Comparison between coastal water (Area #5 in Fig. 1) and deep water (bottom depth > 2000m) in their Chl and SST temporal patterns. In the top panel, Chl values for the >2000m water are shown on the right-hand side of the figure. Conclusion Clearly, Caloosahatchee River has a significant influence on the bio-optical properties in its immediate adjacent waters to at least 30 m isobath, where 26% to 44% (square of the correlation coefficient) of the Chl variability can be explained by the river flow. From Fig. 5, the peaks in the fall of 2000 for Areas #1 to #3 (south of Charlotte Harbor), and the peaks in the fall of 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2005 for all selected 6 areas were confirmed red tide (Karenia brevis) events. These latter events were concurrent with the high river flows, suggesting that the river discharge may directly contribute to the red tide intensity and duration. However, these results do not rule out other possible nutrient sources such as those from upwelling, dust, and even from submarine groundwater discharge which has been found to provide higher nutrient flux than rivers in the US east coast and also in Tampa Bay. We recently conducted a study to document the importance of rainfall that leads to excessive river flow and possibly higher than normal groundwater discharge, which can potentially contribute to the long-lasting, extensive 2005 red tide over the west Florida shelf (Hu et al., 2006). Clearly, there are more than one source to supply nutrients, and further research is needed to clarify rivers’ role in initiate and maintain red tides. Publications Hu, C., F. E. Muller-Karger, and P. W. Swarzenski (2006). Hurricanes, submarine groundwater discharge, and Florida’s red tides. Geophysical Research Letters. Vol. 33, L11601, doi:10.1029/2005GL025449. 9 -3 0.4 0.3 0.2 > 2000m Chl (mg m ) Area #5 o SST ( C) -3 Chl (mg m ) (1998) 96 84 72 60 48 36 24 012 35 25 15 10000 1000 100 3River -1 )Month s (1999) from flow (2000) (ft January (2001) (2002) 1998 10 (2003) (2004) (2005) 1