D. Crichton 1 The Implications of Climate Change for the Insurance Industry Wilton Park Conference, “Climate Change, What can be done?” 15th May, 2002. Professor David Crichton1 Chartered Insurance Practitioner, Fellow of the Chartered Insurance Institute. Abstract Climate change will have direct impacts on the global insurance industry in terms of increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters. It will also have indirect effects, not only those arising from government actions to mitigate climate change, but also from likely increases in civil unrest and terrorism caused by poverty, famine, and water shortages. Climate change will require society to adapt, and during this time, it will be more vulnerable to “sideswipes” from such events as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. In many cases, insurers will be in the “front line” in dealing with the aftermath of such events. Some insurers are beginning to take action, both to mitigate climate change and to encourage adaptation to its effects. Closer partnerships are needed between insurers and government to respond to these challenges, but as yet many remain to be convinced. The author The author has many years’ experience as a senior manager in the insurance industry, dealing with property and casualty insurance underwriting for one of the biggest global insurers. Three years ago, he set up as an independent consultant, and has been advising insurance companies, governments and universities around the world on strategies to deal with climate change. He has often appeared on radio and TV, and has addressed conferences in four continents. He is a member of several Government expert committees and boards in England and Scotland. He is also a member of the UK Advisory Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction. He can be contacted at david@crichton.sol.co.uk . A note for visitors to Great Britain Many of the examples in this paper relate to insurance activities in Great Britain (GB), and it may be useful to explain that Great Britain is made up of the three countries of England, Scotland and Wales. Scotland has its own distinctive laws and education system, and since devolution, it now has its own Parliament, which deals with internal affairs. Wales has its own Assembly, but in many ways is similar to England for the purposes of this paper. For many of the issues considered below, it is necessary to distinguish between England and Wales on the one hand, and Scotland on the other, because the approaches are significantly and increasingly different. (The United Kingdom consists of Great Britain, plus the province of Northern Ireland. The “British Isles” is a geographical term rather than political, and consists of the UK, plus the Republic of Ireland, and the UK Crown Dependencies of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.) 1 Affiliations: Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College, London, Middlesex University Flood Hazard Research Centre, London, and University of Dundee, Scotland. © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 2 Introduction The early European settlers in Australia were puzzled by the Aboriginal custom of “walkabout”. What they did not realise was that the young men who went walkabout were actually arranging their clan’s insurance policies… By forming links with other clans, often extraordinarily far away, they were arranging somwhere they could go should there be a prolonged drought in their area. In times of plenty, the aborigines would have great feasts, called “corroborees” where they invited other clans to come and share in their good fortune. In effect “paying a premium” for protection when times were hard. It is possible that these customs go back tens of thousands of years, and were perhaps the earliest form of insurance. Such practices are not limited to Australia: similar customs exist among the Tswana tribe in Africa, the Kalahari Bushmen, and the hill and lowland tribes in New Guinea. In North West Alaska, the coastal Tarumiut Eskimo hunt bowhead whales, while the inland Nunamiut Eskimo hunt caribou. They trade whale oil for caribou skins, but they do more. In times of plenty, the bounty is shared, and if one year the whales do not come, for example, Tarumiut families head inland to live with Nunamiut families, who happily share their food, shelter and even their wives (Couper-Johnston, 2000). Modern insurance is a bit like the insurance practiced by the Eskimo. While wife sharing may not be a part of it, the sharing of resources and expertise certainly is, and with insurance, the sharing of losses can be spread around the whole world, using reinsurance. Insurance is therefore a very important topic in any consideration of climate change. Is Global warming making insurers sweat? The answer perhaps is “not enough”. What does concern insurance executives is that the costs of disaster claims has shown an enormous increase in recent decades, even without the effects of climate change (Munich Re, 2000), as society becomes more exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards. More people are living in low-lying coastal areas or on floodplains, and industry is more dependent on transport infrastructure and communications, which can easily be disrupted in a disaster. Lightweight building materials and designs are in greater use, but are more vulnerable to storms. The risk is growing every day and indeed, some say that by 2065, the costs of natural disasters could exceed the total GDP for the whole world (Retallack, 2001). As a result, an increasing number of insurers are becoming proactive in dealing with mitigation and adaptation. Many would welcome the opportunity to work more closely with governments. As Kofi Annan has said: “Prevention policy is too important to be left to governments and international agencies alone. To succeed, it must also engage civil society, the private sector and the media” Programme Forum 1999, July 1999, Geneva. This paper is concerned with some of the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on insurers. The impacts are many and varied (Crichton, 2001), and there is only space here to give some examples of how insurers could be affected and how they are taking steps to manage risks. © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 3 Mitigation Greenhouse Gases In terms of climate change, the most effective long-term solution is clearly mitigation, through reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. More than 90 insurers around the world have joined with the United Nations Environment Programme to sign up to a “Statement of Environmental Commitment”, and a group has been established to lobby for reduced GHGs. (In small way, the author helped to found this initiative.) For more details of the initiative, see www.unepfi.net . Insurance industry representatives have been present at all of the Conference of the Parties (COP) talks and will be represented at Rio +10 in Johannesburg and at COP 8 in Delhi. The insurance industry could however do much more. Globally, it is three times bigger than the fossil fuel industry, and its investment managers control 30% of the world’s stocks and shares. To a great extent the industry is a “sleeping giant”, preferring to work quietly behind the scenes. The industry increasingly supports socially responsible investment, and a recent publication of the British Chartered Insurance Institute (Agnew et al, 2001), expressed support for “Contraction and Convergence”, as have many other institutions (Meyer, 2000). It is pleasing to see that Aubrey Meyer, the author of this initiative, is also speaking at this conference. Renewable Energy Some would argue that C&C implies a reduced standard of living. This is not necessarily the case, if alternative energy sources and energy saving measures are used. Often these can offer a lower level of risk, and there is a strong underwriting case for insurance industry support in the form of premium incentives (Chen, Mills, and Vine, 1998). In addition, insurers could lend their support to such changes as part of their socially responsible investment policies. There are many alternative sources of energy for the production of electricity. Some, such as solar and wind are weather dependent and unsuitable for base load supply, but much more could be done with biomass, tidal power, micro hydro, and nuclear. The fossil fuel companies should be looking more closely at these alternative energy sources, and perhaps insurance investment managers could play a greater role in persuading them of the merits of this. As John Ritch has pointed out (Ritch, 1999) demand for electricity is going to grow so quickly that it is hard to see how renewable power sources can reduce our dependence on fossil fuel, unless we maintain and expand nuclear power. This view seems to be shared by a recent British Royal Commission on the subject (Royal Commission, 2000). At one time, the author helped to administer the British Atomic Energy insurance pool, and knows that this has an excellent claims record. Despite Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry record on deaths, diseases, and pollution is still many times better than that of the coal industry, and from an insurance point of view, the modern nuclear power industry represents a much more acceptable risk than coal. Alternatives to fossil fuels for surface vehicles and aircraft are more limited. Hydrogen fuel cells are being developed for surface transport, but we are a long way from using them in aircraft. At present the only non fossil fuel option which is practical for both surface and air transport is a “biofuel” called ethanol, a form of © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 4 alcohol produced from organic material. It is already mixed with petrol in parts of the USA and Canada, and with minimal modification, motor vehicles could run perfectly well on ethanol alone. South Africa ran military aircraft on ethanol when the country was subject to oil sanctions. Such a fuel is less likely to explode in an accident, and it cannot pollute the oceans or soil because it dissolves in water. It does not pollute the air, uses simple technology, and is renewable, plentiful, and carbon dioxide neutral. Henry Ford had planned to run his Model T car on ethanol which was his preferred fuel until prohibition came along. If it had not been for prohibition, it is quite likely that all our motor vehicles would be powered by ethanol already. Insurers could use the safety aspects to justify encouraging ethanol using incentives in motor insurance premiums, and premiums for tankers and filling stations. As US Senator Richard Lugar has pointed out (Lugar and Woolsey, 1999), the cost of production of ethanol could be very low using new catalysts recently developed in Florida. These catalysts enable any organic material, even waste paper, to be a source of ethanol without the need for massive oil wells or refineries. (Perhaps this is why there is not more support for it from petrol companies?) Adaptation Whatever is done about mitigation on a global basis, it is already too late to prevent climate change from increasingly affecting society, and so regional, national and local adaptation measures are also very important to manage and hopefully reduce the risk. Risk How should one define “risk”? It seems that every profession has its own definition. Insurers like to believe that they are experts in risk, after all it is their core business. For some years now, insurers have been using catastrophe risk models, many of which are based on the concept of the “Risk Triangle” methodology (© Crichton, 1997). This argues that risk is a function of the three elements of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. If these three elements are the sides of a triangle, risk can be considered to be the area of the triangle. Reduce any one side, and you reduce risk. Eliminate any one side, and you eliminate risk. In the risk triangle, hazard represents the frequency and severity of an event or condition that can cause a loss. Vulnerability is the extent to which people or property can suffer injury or damage from the hazard, and depends on preparedness, resilience, and recovery. Exposure is the proximity and value of vulnerable people or property to the hazard. The most efficient way to reduce risk, is to look for the “low hanging fruit”, the cheapest and most effective solutions from each of the three sides of the triangle. The next section of this paper looks at the three sides of the risk triangle and comments on them from a British perspective © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 5 Hazard In Britain, climate change is likely to have a number of impacts in terms of hazards: Health Heat stress, skin cancer, air pollution, disease, insect infestation, especially dust mites and mosquitoes, will cause illness and deaths. Milder winters will save more lives, however, and life insurance actuaries tend to see climate change as not causing them a problem. Storms and floods could cause trauma for many people, if not death and injury. Subsidence This already costs insurers £1m every day on average, and is likely to be a growing problem as summers become drier and warmer, causing soils to shrink. Subsidence should not be a major hazard, the fact that it is so costly in Britain, especially England, is more to do with inadequate building foundations on shrinkable soils, and a failure to consult with the insurance industry on building standards. A new technique using satellite data, called Permanent Scatterer Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (PS InSAR) is making it possible to measure sub millimetre movements in buildings. This could identify the worst subsidence areas. It could also give early warning of failure of mass structures such as bridges, flood defences, power stations and dams. Dam break More than 50% of Britain’s dams are over 100 years old and made of earth embankments which have not been properly compacted. Many are in a defective condition, and the warm, dry, summers resulting from climate change will bring will cause cracking. When followed by winters which could be 30% wetter than now, combined with higher wind speeds causing overtopping and erosion, dam failure is becoming increasingly likely (Babties and Institute of Hydrology, 2002). Dam owners in Britain follow a culture of strict secrecy about the condition of their dams and the areas that would be flooded should a dam fail (Hughes et al., 2000). One cannot help wondering why? Do they have something to hide? The industry also seems to be characterised by a feeling of complacency that nothing can go wrong which contrasts with countries such as France and the USA where dam owners are much more open about the risks. Even the existence of the British dam defects database is denied. As a member of the steering committee on a project that examined reservoir risks in Britain, the author has seen extracts from the database, but is not at liberty to reveal them. However the fact that the contents are so secret might lead the reader to conclude that all is not well with the condition of the nation’s dams. The author could not comment on this. Of equal concern is the secrecy surrounding the areas that would be inundated by a dam break. Again the author has seen some of them but is not at liberty to reveal their contents. Suffice it to say that many dams are near urban areas including schools and hospitals, and that planners are allowing new housing developments in such areas simply because they are unaware of the hazard. There are no evacuation arrangements in the case of dam break, because the information needed is even kept secret from the emergency planning officials and the police. Storms © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 6 Storms are likely to be more frequent and severe. What is more important, and is not generally realised, is that their tracks will change. Normally in the winter, blocking high pressure areas over Switzerland and Germany divert storm tracks over the North of Scotland or Spain where houses have been designed to cope with them. In future there will be more storms across the South of England where buildings are designed and constructed to lower standards. Two such storms in January and February 1990 caused insured losses of £2,400m. Another such storm in December 1999 devastated large areas of France. (A much more severe storm in January 1993 caused very little damage because it only passed over the North of Scotland where buildings are more resilient.) Floods All the world’s climate change models agree that in Britain climate change will bring increased rainfall, more prolonged rainfall, and more extreme rainfall events which will increase the river flood hazard, (Palmer, and Rälsänen, 2002). More storms, a higher wave climate, and sea level rise, will increase the chances of coastal floods. New remote sensing techniques, such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites, and LiDAR (LASER instrument Detection and Ranging) will enable flood hazard areas to be mapped to far greater accuracy in the future and the author is involved with some of this work. Flood hazards, can be controlled to an extent by structural solutions (for example flood walls) and by non structural solutions (for example tree planting, or changes in agricultural practices). However in England and Wales, according to insurance funded research (Halcrow, 1994, 1995) and government funded research (Burgess et al, 2000), spending on structural flood defences has been inadequate for many years. This inadequate funding is due to government constraints that are reflected in the artificial cost benefit rules that ration spending in England and Wales. Where defences are built they are often inadequate and poorly maintained. In addition, according to the Middlesex Flood Hazard Research Centre, the relevant government department in England, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) are not authorised to spend anything on more sustainable non-structural defences (Green, 2002). The position is different in Scotland, where, since devolution, central grant aid for the construction of flood defences has never been refused on the grounds of lack of funds, and there are no artificial cost benefit rules to ration spending. Also Scotland has taken the lead in researching what changes are needed to flood defences to take climate change into account (Price and McInally, 2001), and a major research project for the Scottish Executive by the University of Dundee and Entec has quantified the overall flood risk for Scotland (Werritty et al, 2002). One of the biggest contributory factors for urban flood in Britain is the condition of urban drainage systems, which are often very old. Even new ones are designed to cope only with normal rainfall levels. Recent research in Scotland has shown that climate change will mean that many of these systems will surcharge several times a year in the future (Futter and Lang, 2001). (This research relates only to Scotland, but similar research is about to be started in England) © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 7 Terrorism Climate change will lead to increased poverty, famine and water shortages around the world. This in turn will lead to increasing desperation and resentment in poorer countries, especially if the affluent West continues with its profligate use of energy, water, and other resources. Terrorism could spread like a vector borne disease, but possibly with much more serious consequences. The events of September 11th in New York are symptomatic of such disaffection. While these could increasingly be repeated around the world, the USA is the most likely target for such resentment. Already reinsurance against terrorism will become hard to obtain after this year, and primary insurers may wish to withdraw cover from certain “target risks”. The Environmental Liability Directive recently agreed by the EU Parliament, could result in legislation to make liability insurance compulsory for certain high hazard installations in the EU (Already such legislation has been proposed for Scotland for installations such as oil rigs and waste disposal sites). Where terrorism is an issue, there is a possibility that such installations might have to close if insurance cannot be obtained. “Sideswipes” Until society has adapted to climate change, it will be increasingly vulnerable to sideswipes such as earthquake or volcanic eruptions. Adaptation could reduce such vulnerability. According to Professor Bill McGuire of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at UCL in London, perhaps the most imminent danger comes from the La Palma volcano in the Canary Islands (McGuire, 2002). When this next erupts, and this could happen any time in the next 30 years, the whole side of the mountain will slip into the ocean causing a giant tsunami that could engulf the coasts of USA, Canada, North Africa and Europe. In North Africa and Spain the wave could be 100 metres high, and travelling at 600 miles an hour. By the time it reaches Britain, the wave would still be around 10 metres high along the south coast of England. Vulnerability Insurance can help to reduce vulnerability by providing expertise and funding to help a community get back on its feet after a disaster. Recovery from natural disasters depends on the protection of assets, which enable people to engage in their livelihoods. This can be represented by the mnemonic “SHINE”: Social - networks, institutions Human - skills, knowledge Infrastructure, food stocks, buildings Natural - minerals, water, fertile land, trees Economic - savings, INSURANCE (For more details, see www.livelihoods.org ) Poverty can lead to increased vulnerability, which means that hazards can have more severe effects. This in turn leads to increased poverty and increased vulnerability in a vicious circle that can only be broken by some form of intervention to manage the risk. There is a growing acceptance that private industry has a role to play in promoting environmental justice not only in the developing world, but also in relatively wealthy countries like Britain (Bullock et al, 2001). Insurers could be involved in such intervention, using their risk management expertise and providing speedy financial assistance for recovery. Obviously insurers as © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 8 commercial companies will require a premium, but at least this is a cost which is relatively stable and known in advance. At the moment, relief agencies have to search for donors after the disaster. If it were possible for donors to be found to pay for the insurance of essential infrastructure before the disaster, then disaster recovery would be much quicker. Speedy recovery work can also reduce levels of damage. A new British initiative, the Commonwealth Disaster Management Agency, is aimed at enabling developing countries to have access to disaster insurance. For details see www.commonwealthdma.com . Not everyone can afford insurance premiums even in “wealthy” countries, however, and insurers are exploring different solutions. For example, in Britain, special insurance schemes are available for those in rented accommodation whereby they can pay a weekly premium along with their rent for basic cover. Government could assist this by extending housing benefit to cover such insurance, and recover the costs from the taxes they collect from insurers. The insurance industry can also assist with disaster preparedness. They have access to a wealth of data about which parts of buildings are most likely to fail during a storm or flood, for example, and this could be a valuable resource in updating building standards to make buildings more resilient, and therefore safer. Unfortunately the government in England and Wales has shown no interest in these data and there is no consultation with the insurance industry on new building standards in England and Wales. Again the position is different in Scotland, where the author is a member of the building standards research committee. If building standards were made more resilient, this would not only reduce vulnerability on new buildings, but could gradually reduce the vulnerability of existing stock. If the new building standards were made retrospective, as in proposed new Scottish legislation on building standards (at the author’s suggestion), it would mean that when paying for reinstatement, insurers would have to reinstate to a higher standard of resilience. This is something insurers would be happy to do, so long as there is the “level playing field” which comes from legislation. Exposure Where people chose to live can very much affect their risk. This is especially true for flood hazards. In the United Kingdom, the government regulator for insurance is the Financial Services Authority (FSA). In 2001, the FSA issued risk-based criteria for assessing the solvency of insurers. One of the effects of this is that an insurer that takes on too much business in areas at risk of flood, could find the FSA deciding to audit it. Since 1961, private insurers in Britain have had a form of partnership with government in that they would offer flood insurance for every household at a reasonable price. This arrangement is unique to Britain. In recent years, however, government in England and Wales has failed to maintain flood defences or control new housing developments in floodplains to the satisfaction of insurers (although Scotland has made enormous progress since devolution). There are now large accumulations of exposure in flood hazard areas in England and Wales, especially in the South East of England. This is due to the demand for housing in areas where suitable sites are limited, together with the availability of insurance even in hazardous areas which has enable people to borrow money to buy the houses. There is a good example at Eastbourne (not far from Wilton Park) where there is a new development © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 9 of 2,500 houses on an undefended section of the coast. According to the Environment Agency, most of these homes will flood during the next severe coastal storm, putting many lives at risk. The combined effect of government regulation of insurance exposures, government’s failure to control new developments in hazardous areas in England, the deterioration of flood defences in England and Wales, and insurers’ concerns about climate change, has placed insurers in a difficult situation. When in 2001, despite warnings from the insurance industry, the government in England issued new draft planning guidelines (DEFRA 2001), that would, in effect, continue to allow floodplain development this signalled a further breakdown in the partnership between insurers and government, at least in England. Insurers immediately advised government that they would have no choice but to give notice of their withdraw from the guarantee and this is due to happen at the end of 2002. The consequences of this should not be underestimated; currently some 27% by value of new houses in England are being built against the advice of the Government’s own Environment Agency, which believes the flood hazard is too great to allow the houses to be built. By contrast, the Scottish government has co-operated fully with the insurance industry, and local planners throughout Scotland have recognised the problems and accepted advice from the author, which means there should be very few problems North of the border. Insurance withdrawal from certain areas will cause problems for many living in floodplains or near the coast. Without insurance, their loans to buy the property could be foreclosed, and even if the owner can afford to pay off the mortgage, the next time there is a flood, the owner may not be able to afford the repairs. Homes could be abandoned or blighted, causing misery for the owners, but at least reducing the risk of future death or injury. Government compensation for such people is very unlikely. Even after the record breaking floods in 2000, this was still government policy, according to Nick Raynsford, at that time the Secretary of State for Planning in England (Raynsford, 2000) who stated that “it would be foolish for any government” to provide compensation in such circumstances. He did not seem to be aware that there are many governments around the world, which do behave in this “foolish” way. In the longer term, insurance withdrawal from the most hazardous areas should discourage building in floodplains and low lying coastal areas. It is unfortunate that the transition will be at such a high cost to innocent victims. In Ontario in Canada, they have a different approach. Instead of spending money defending flood plains, they simply refuse to allow any new building. They also buy up existing property if the owner wishes to sell, and then demolish it for parkland. As a result they have many fine recreation areas, and no bills for maintenance of flood defences. It is probably too late to try such a solution in England or Wales, but it may be a possibility in Scotland. © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 10 Conclusions Insurers are starting to act to support mitigation measures, but could do much more, for example, by supporting Contraction and Convergence, and by promoting the use of non fossil fuel energy sources to maintain standards of living. In the area of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, there are many ways in which the insurance industry can help society to adapt to climate change. They can give risk management advice, and use premium incentives to encourage greater resilience, or to discourage people from living in hazardous areas, for example. Partnership is the key, as highlighted in the quote from Kofi Annan shown at the beginning of this paper. The partnership in Scotland is flourishing, but England and Wales look set to become a case study in what can happen when the partnership breaks down. David Crichton, May 2002. Possible Topics for discussion Should insurers become more proactive in trying to influence governments and multi national companies on mitigation and adaptation issues? How can public-private partnerships be encouraged? Should building standards use insurance claims data to assess how buildings could be made more resilient? Should insurers reinstate flood or storm damaged buildings to a higher standard of resilience? How can insurance cover be made more available and affordable in developing countries? Further Reading Crichton, D., 2001 The Implications of Climate Change for the Insurance Industry – an update and outlook to 2020. Published January 2001 by the Building Research Establishment, Watford, England. Reprinted with updating supplement, November 2001. ISBN 1-903852-00-5. “An authoritative and up to date review…” Prof. Alan Werritty, University of Dundee. “…an important work and one which adds greatly to the efforts of the insurance sector to define an appropriate and progressive role in efforts to confront climate change.” Klaus Topfer, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme. “I can strongly recommend this report to scientists, businesses and government agencies and departments concerned with climate change.” Lord Hunt of Chesterton (Professor Julian Hunt, former chief executive of the UK Meteorological Office.) © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 11 References Agnew, M., Cooper, M., Crichton, D., Kelly, N., Loster, T., Radevsky, R., Salt, J., Viner, D., Walden, J., Walker, T., 2001. “Climate Change and Insurance.” Ed. Dlugolecki, A. Chartered Insurance Institute Research Report, London 2001. (Available on www.cii.co.uk ) Bullock, S., Scott, A., and Stephens, C., (2001) ‘Environmental Justice’. Economic & Social Research Council, Special Briefing No. 7. Swindon, England. Burgess, K., Deakin, R., Samuels, P., Chatterton, J., and Penning-Rowsell, E., (June 2000): Assessment of Economic Value of National Assets at Risk from Flooding and Coastal Erosion.” Final Report, July 2001 (published September 2001, placed on the web in October 2001.) Available for downloading from: www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/default.htm Chen, A., Mills, E., Vine, E., 1998. "Energy - efficiency and renewable energy options for risk management and insurance loss reduction: an inventory of technologies, research capabilities, and research facilities at the US Department of Energy's National Laboratories" Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California, USA. US Department of Commerce, August 1998. Couper-Johnston, R., 2000 “El Niño, the Weather Phenomenon that Changed the World”. Hodder & Stoughton, London. Crichton, D. 2001 “The Implications of Climate Change for the Insurance Industry.” (ISBN 1903852-00-5), Building Research Establishment, Watford, England. DEFRA 2001. “Policy Planning Guidelines – Flooding – PPG 25” HMSO, London. Futter, M and Lang, I (2001) – Montgomery Watson “Implications for Scotland of Recent Developments in Design Rainfall Estimation and Climate Change” Scottish Wastewater Planning Users Group (WaPUG) Meeting 12th June 2001, Dunblane Green, C., 2002. Personal Communication. Sir William Halcrow & Partners Ltd. (October 1994). "Identification of Coastal Flood Areas in England and Wales" Association of British Insurers, London. Sir William Halcrow & Partners Ltd. (August 1995). "Identification of Coastal Flood Areas in England and Wales : Supplementary Report - Updating the Sea Defence Survey" Association of British Insurers, London. Hughes,A; Hewlett, H W M; Samuels, P G; Morris, M; Sayers, P; Moffat, I; harding, A; Tedd, P. 2000 “Risk Management for UK Reservoirs.” Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA) Research project report C542. London. Lugar, R and Woolsey, J. 1999, "The New Petroleum" Foreign Affairs magazine, New York, USA, January/February 1999 McGuire, W., 2002. Personal communication. Meyer, A., 2000. “Contraction and convergence. The global solution to climate change.” Green Books Ltd, Devon, England. Munich Re, 2000, "Topics 2000". Published January 2000 Palmer, T.N., and Rälsänen, J. (2002) ‘Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate’ Nature, Vol 415, pp.512-514. © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. D. Crichton 12 Price, D.J., and McInally, G. 2001: Climate Change: Review of Levels of Protection Offered by Flood Prevention Schemes. Scottish Executive Central Research Unit Report No 12. Edinburgh, May 2001 Raynsford, N (2000). Evidence to the Environment Transport and Regional Affairs Select Committee Report on the Autumn floods in 2000. Published on 20th December 2000. HMSO, London. Retallack, S (2001). ‘We’ve saved Kyoto (shame about the world’s climate)’ Ecologist Journal Special Report, London, November 2001 pp18-22. Ritch, J., "Nuclear Green", Prospect Magazine, March 1999. (At the time, Mr Ritch was US Ambassador to the UN Organisation in Vienna, which includes the International Atomic Energy Agency. He is now Director General of the World Nuclear Association.) Royal Commission Report on Environmental Pollution, 2000. “Energy – The Changing Climate” June 2000 (Cm 4749) Available from the Royal Commission web site, http://www.rcep.org.uk Werritty, A., Black, A., Duck, R., Finlinson, W., Shackley, S., Crichton, D., “Climate Change, Flood Occurrences Review.” Scottish Executive Environment Group Research Program Research Findings No. 19. Scottish Executive, Edinburgh. Available from www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/resfinds Web sites for additional information Association of British Insurers (ABI) http://www.abi.org.uk Guidelines on Socially Responsible Investment http://www.ivis.computasoft.com/ Building Research Establishment (BRE) http://www.bre.co.uk Commonwealth Disaster Management Agency http://www.commonwealthdma.com Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA) http://www.ciria.org.uk Earthwatch initiative (UN) http://earthwatch.unep.net/ Global Commons Institute (Contains details of Contraction and Convergence.) http://www.gci.org.uk/main.html Global Monitoring For Environment And Security http://gmes.jrc.it Livelihoods and disaster reduction http://www.livelihoods.org/ Munich Reinsurance (Publishes a great deal of useful information and statistics.) http://www.munichre.de UNEP Finance Initiative and The Insurance Industry Initiative for http://unepfi.net/iii/index.htm United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). http://www.unisdr.org/ © Copyright David Crichton, May, 2002. the Environment