John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 John Dodds: Gravity Causes Climate Change Variable Incoming Energy, NOT CO2, causes Cooling & Warming. (Supplement 1 Rev 2 to Ch 2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming) (© J Dodds Feb 15, 2010, and Oct 5 2009 at www.scribd.com) (http://www.scribd.com/doc/19476991/John-Dodds-Wobble-Theory-of-Global-Warming- at www.scribd.com contains the more complete 150 page “Wobble Theory” paper ) ABSTRACT This paper disproves the IPCC and Global Computer Models global warming analyses and offers alternate theories. It identifies: 1. that the IPCC fails to follow basic principles of science when it misrepresents the Greenhouse Effect (GHE) and claims that simply adding Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) to the air results in warming, when the original Arrhenius paper says that you must add an energy photon to a GHG to get GHE warming. 2. that the quantities of energy entering the Earth, not the amount of GHGs, dictates how much of GHE warming can occur 3. that the physical conditions on Earth maintain an EXCESS of the GHGs in the air over that needed to satisfy the limited energy available for the GHE, thus invalidating the IPCC claim that just adding more GHGs means warming. This voids the idea of AGW& the justification for the Kyoto Treaty and Cap & Trade CO2 emissions control (see “Excess CO2 Scenario” paper at www.scribd.com) 4. that the various forces of gravity from the sun moon and planets, and the gravitational potential energy provide additional energy into the Earth that was not considered in the IPCC analyses. This energy is much greater than the solar insolation used as the sole source by IPCC. The identification of these added energy sources also solves a major problem with the Milankovitch Theory that solar insolation did not provide sufficient energy to be able to cause ice age magnitude cooling. Identifying that these energy sources were not used by the IPCC invalidates the IPCC analyses. 5. that the timing (60 year, 900 year etc natural cycles) and spatial distribution of the energy from gravity and gravitational potential energy is imposed on the Earth by orbital variations and eccentricity. This explains the time variations of the Earths temperature, and why the Earth’s temperature moves north to south and back, in the NAO, PDO, El Nino/La Nina cycles. This will allow better predictability of future climate changes droughts and hurricanes/cyclones etc. This paper is structured in the following parts 1.Greenhouse Effect Mis-Application of the Science by IPCC 2.Other Energy Sources: Gravity and Gravitational Potential Energy - 100 year impacts 3.Longer Term Impacts -1000s of years 4.Shorter Term Impacts -1 to 10 years 5.Off Ecliptic (Sun-Earth) Plane Impacts on El Nino/La Nina etc (http://www.scribd.com/doc/19476991/John-Dodds-Wobble-Theory-of-Global-Warming- at www.scribd.com contains the more complete 150 page “Wobble Theory” version of the paper ) © John Dodds Feb 2010. This paper is copyrighted with all rights reserved and may not be reproduced for publication without permission. Contact the author at email: JDoddsGW@sbcglobal.net The abstract alone may be reproduced for publication, only with reference to this “Gravity Causes Climate Changes” paper and the “Wobble Theory” paper both available at www.scribd.com,. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 1 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 1. GHE Mis-Application by IPCC & Computer Models The IPCC says (AR4, CH1, WG1., p116) "The Sun powers Earth’s climate, radiating energy at very short wavelengths, predominately in the visible or near-visible (e.g., ultraviolet) part of the spectrum. ... Adding more of a greenhouse gas, such as CO2, to the atmosphere intensifies the greenhouse effect (GHE), thus warming Earth’s climate." These two statements are patently false, and extremely misleading. First the much larger forces of gravity from the sun, moon, and planets acting on the Earth, result in a continuous energy input (& output in order to maintain equilibrium temperatures) to the earth. The energy manifests itself as Earth rotation, movements of the oceans and liquid core in tides and currents etc, and friction and the Earth Kinetic Energy as measured by temperature. In addition orbital movement of the Earth relative to the sun moon and planets results in a Gravitational Potential Energy that also adds to or removes Earth’s kinetic energy resulting in temperature variations. The energy from gravity is much larger than the 1366W/m^2 energy from solar insolation used by IPCC as the sole source of incoming energy in the evaluation of global warming. The energy from gravity, the energy available from Potential Energy and the energy from solar insolation will all result in Earth energy maximums at the same time, when Earth is closest to the gravity sources, primarily the Sun, Jupiter and Venus. Second, Arrhenius in 1896 said that adding an energy photon to a Greenhouse Gas (GHG), results in the Greenhouse warming effect (GHE). It requires all THREE components to get warming. Failure to add the energy photon results in a violation of the Law of Conservation of Energy. An object can not warm itself up in violation of the 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics without adding the extra energy. Simply adding a GHG will not create warming, unless it absorbs a photon. These errors negate all conclusions by the IPCC models. The IPCC interpretation misapplies the Arrhenius scientific theory to the Earth. Rather than adding a GHG causing warming per the IPCC, it is the increased addition of energy photons to the already existent EXCESS of GHGs in the atmosphere, that will cause an increase in the GHE warming. The absorption spectrum at those energies is saturated for WV, CO2 and Methane with competes with WV. There is thus excess GHGs in the air at those energies. Since there is already excess, (above what is needed for the GHE,) then the GHE is LIMITED and dictated by the available energy, not by the amount of GHGs. And that energy is already used up by the existing about 30C of the greenhouse effect at the world average temperature of 287K. A simple proof is that the GHG Water Vapor, exists and results in 85-98% of the ~30C Greenhouse effect. IF more energy were available then it would have already used the excess GHG water vapor in the air and oceans to create a larger GHE contribution, until there was no excess GHG available (i.e. the oceans would have boiled away!). Similarly when the GHG water vapor humidity triples locally from a nominal 33% to 100% when it rains, the temperature from the GHE does not triple to a 90C WV contribution, because there is no extra absorbable energy available. We just get excess water vapor in the air. A similar argument applies to CO2 which is available to plants at 16C rather than at the 900C of a CO2 that has absorbed a photon. The IPCC “rule” that more GHG means more warming does NOT work. The available energy dictates the GHE, not the amount of GHG or CO2, in spite of the popular mis-interpretation of the Greenhouse Effect. The IPCC interpretation is a gross fraudulent misrepresentation of the scientific reality. Thus the IPCC conclusion that limiting the amount of CO2 or GHG emissions in order to control the temperature also does not work. Reducing CO2 emissions will only reduce the amount of EXCESS CO2 in the air, thus making it harder for plants to grow. Since reducing emissions will not reduce the temperature then the justification for using much more expensive “clean” power in place of cheaper CO2 emitting power sources also is not scientifically justifiable. The demonization of Carbon is a gross miscarriage of reality. Further evidence disproving the idea that more GHGs causes more warming is the fact that on a daily basis the solar insolation energy coming in varies from zero (at night- when the outgoing energy is provided by the Earth radiating energy from its surface) to 1366W/m^2. The Earth temperature thus passes through equilibrium twice daily (contrary to James Hansen’s claim that the Earth is at a dis-equilibrium until the CO2 is removed). In the morning the energy-in increases, the ground warms, the use of more GHGs increases, the GHE increases and the temperature warms. At night or when the temperature decreases from the maximum, less energy is transported in and out, the GHE decreases, and the amount of GHGs used for energy transport to space decreases and the amount of excess GHGs increases. BUT in spite of the increase of available GHGs the temperature DECREASES. The IPCC statement that more GHGs means more warming is a LIE. In fact, by a ratio of the modified (for gray bodies) Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) of energy transported at a given temperature, at the average temperature of 287K, less than half of the GHGs available in 1922 when the hottest recorded temperature 58C was measured (when CO2 Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 2 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 was at ~280ppm) are actually in use for the GHE. There is basically always EXCESS GHGs, both WV and CO2 in the air. Furthermore, since all of the available outgoing energy of a frequency that can be absorbed by the GHGs will be absorbed, then the IPCC et al concepts of “feedback” effects resulting in even more warming are physically impossible. There is literally no extra energy available to be absorbed by the added excess “feedback” GHGs. This also eliminates the concept of a runaway greenhouse effect. The energy photons powering the warming do not exist. The only way to get more photons is to increase the solar insolation, increase the gravity effects, decrease the stored potential energy (all by getting closer to planetary masses) or by adding thousands times more man made chemical or nuclear energy. The futility of CO2 emissions control is further demonstrated by an evaluation of the contributors to the Earths temperature. The Earths 287C average temperature consists of about 30 C from the GHE nanosecond energy delay, (delaying a photon, not trapping it, warms the air) and about 257C from other ground sources (either radioactive decay or gravity etc. ) Of the variable 30C GHE, 85% (25.5C) to 98% (29.4C) comes from water vapor Leaving 0.6 to 4.5C from ALL the CO2. (& all others) Since half or more of the CO2 is in excess ,then this must be removed before it will impact the GHE. Whereas if we just add more it will not add more temperature. So now lets say we remove all the CO2 from the air to lower the temp by 0.6 to 4.5C (an impossibility since more will just come out of that dissolved in the ocean). What happens to plant growth and food production that depends on the availability of CO2? Have we just killed off mankind? The figure 1-1 below shows the GHE temperature effect as a function of GHG concentration graphically.. It should be noted that if the energy coming in is limited then no matter how much of the absorbing GHG there is in the air, there can be no increase in the number of absorptions at any given time. There is no additional energy photon to be absorbed. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 3 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 The explanation for why this error was made is simple. As Arrhenius did his thought experiments in 1896, he increased the number of GHGs available from zero to get the “rule “ that “ more GHGs caused more warming”. This rule applies in the lab when the Earth is increasing its temperature up until it reaches equilibrium. However when the Earth reaches the equilibrium point when the amount of Energy photons coming in equals the amount going out (a fraction of which, (about 11% or 32C/287C), are transported by the GHGs in the Greenhouse Effect,) then, the situation changes. Since all the photons are already being transported out, then the addition of more GHGs has no impact on the number of photons available. More GHGs no longer causes more warming. There is then EXCESS GHGs in the air, and hence WV GHGs in the ocean. Adding more has no impact on the already maximized GHE. At this point only adding more energy photons will cause more warming (& also more GHE.) This is shown in Fig 1-1 above. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 4 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 2. OTHER ENERGY SOURCES: Gravity, Potential Energy, 100 year impacts Given that the theory above indicates that more CO2 does not cause more warming, BUT it is clear that while the incoming solar insolation has been essentially constant since the 1960s and there has obviously been global warming from the 1970s through 1998, as well as cooling from 1880 to 1910, warming to 1940, cooling to 1970, Then there MUST be another varying source of incoming energy. It was identified that variable Gravity “wobbles” caused by planetary eccentricity is one source of energy, both as direct energy transfer to Earth from the sun moon and planets (e.g. Earth rotation and friction, tides etc), and as the source of Earths Gravitational Potential Energy relative to the sun and moon and planets. This is similar to how NASA scientists have identified that Jupiter’s gravity causes climate changes and the extreme volcanism (heat source) on Jupiter’s moon Io. This is summarized below. The full details of the justification of John Dodds Wobble Theory are available at www.scribd.com in the full paper http://www.scribd.com/doc/19476991/John-Dodds-Wobble-Theory-of-Global-WarmingThese sources were not addressed in the IPCC analyses. Which therefore invalidates the IPCC analyses (again!) The following Fig 2-1 chart of measured Hadley Temperature AND direct Forces of Gravity attempts to identify and rank one of the causes and effects on Earth’s Temperature. First the forces of Gravity were identified with the Sun and Moon being by far the most significant. However their variation is essentially unchanged on a year over year basis. I.e. the annual seasonal variations. Next most significant are Jupiter (blue), Saturn (pink) and Venus (brown) in the chart below. Obviously there are significant variations, that far exceed the contribution from solar insolation Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 5 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 . The next most dominant force is from Jupiter (blue). The approximate 12 year periodicity of when Jupiter and Earths orbits reach their closest point or perigee identifies when the force of gravity (inverse r-squared law) would reach energy peaks. The temperature peaks that correspond to Jupiter’s peaks in forces are readily apparent as the blue peaks in Earth’s 3 year average Hadley temperature chart measurements. The temperature peaks rise for the nominal 6 yr half orbit as Earth and Jupiter are getting closer. Next we observe that there is a near 30 year orbital cycle for Saturn (pink) as it moves along its orbit. When we observe that BOTH Jupiter and Saturn are coincidently closest to their peaks (every 60 years, 1880, 1940, 2000) we also get a peak in the Earth temperature. The 60 year periodicity is reminiscent of the natural well known 60 year Jupiter Saturn resonance orbit. (10 Jupiter orbits resonate with 2 Saturn orbits for a repeating pattern that dictates 60 year cycles in planetary eccentricity.). It is postulated that there are 60 year temperature cycles driven by gravity of primarily Jupiter and the planets and their associated eccentricity. From a temperature peak or closest approach/shortest distance, for the next 30 years the distance is increasing, & the force of gravity is decreasing and the Earth to planets (most Jupiter) Potential Energy is increasing, taking the energy from the Earth’s Kinetic Energy all resulting in 30 years of cooling. Next we observe that Venus has a series of short (less than a month ) peaks that are comparable to Jupiter in magnitude, but drop to values lower than Saturn soon after the peak. Note that for the 30 years after a temperature peak (closest point) the distance from Earth to the Jupiter/Saturn equivalent mass, is INCREASING, thus resulting in a decrease if the force of gravity, an increase in the Earths PE AND the observed decrease in temperature. At the furthest point (near the apogees for both Jupiter and Saturn, there will be a reversal, the force of gravity will begin to increase, the PE will begin to decrease (resulting on more Kinetic energy to Earth) and the temperature will warm for 30 years to the next peak. The figure below summarizes the sources of Energy into the Earth. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 6 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 3. LONGER TERM (1000 Year) Impacts Figure 3-1 below shows the longer term (6000 years, limit of the orbital ephemeris program) chart of the influences of Jupiter’s (the most dominant variable gravity force- the sun is essentially constant) eccentric orbit. While this chart is Jupiter’s orbit relative to the Sun, a chart relative to the Earth is similar but a little more complex due to Earth orbit complications. Variation is orbital distance over time result in variable forces of gravity acting on the earth (& oceans & tides and friction heat etc), and in variable levels of gravitational potential energy. This chart clearly shows both the current nominal 60 year resonances identified above and the approximate 900 year warming and cooling sequences that result in among others the Roman warming 136BC-339AD the Dark Ages cooling, 336AD-908 the Viking warming, 908-1311 the Little Ice Age cooling 1311-1762, and the current warming 1762-2224 as cycles that are caused by primarily Jupiter’s eccentricity and its subsequent cause of Earth’s eccentricity. It even shows the beginning of the slowing down of Jupiter’s orbital expansion as it begins to reverse to become less eccentric (& hence overall warmer, ) in the next millennium. Note how the rise of civilizations corresponds to warming temperatures and less eccentric Jupiter orbits. This chart shows the perihelion (nearest to sun) points of Jupiter’s orbit. The aphelion points (furthest from sun) are mirror images at about 6AU, showing eccentricity in that whenever this curve shows Jupiter’s orbit becoming less Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 7 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 eccentric (moving closer to a circle (e.g. 1762-2224 -the current warming) then the outer curve also is moving inward showing less eccentricity. In addition to these ~900 year cycles, the approximate 60 year cycles when Jupiter reaches the closest point to the sun & earth are also evident as the lines themselves. (e.g. the lines terminate in 1880, 1940 and 1998 which are the closest points on Fig 2. While the temperature turning points do not correspond exactly, they are approximate and also vary with time and there are complications from both Saturn and Venus eccentricity turning points that explain some discrepancies from the Richard Alley GISP2 temperatures, typical northern hemisphere temperatures given below as Fig 3-2. The key points are that 1) The force of Gravity from Jupiter and the planets does provide an additional source of energy and heat into the Earth, that was not considered in the IPCC Global Warming analyses, and 2) These variations provide a timing that (approximately) corresponds to and hence explains the natural temperature variations of the Earth. Even longer term eccentricity cycles (which cause Earth eccentricity) will also cause longer term earth temperature variations such as ice ages etc & probably even multi-million year Earth eccentricity and temperature variations. This is further explained in the Wobble Theory paper referenced above. The actual measured temperature is caused by the SUM of all the varying sources of incoming energy. Due to the different frequencies of the variations some forces and energies dominate at different times. E.g. The solar insolation has a daily cycle due to Earth rotation The moon orbit around the earth has a near monthly cycle, which averages out on a yearly averaged chart The Earth single orbit eccentricity and tilt has an annual cycle. (seasons) from solar insolation AND the suns gravity. The gravity and PE from Venus cause 3.25 year and 60 year cycles on Earth temperatures The gravity from Jupiter has a force and Potential Energy on an 11.86 (almost ) 12 year cycle. Saturn has a near 30 year impact. The Resonance Effect of Jupiter and Saturn results in a 60 year cycle of temperatures AND causes the Eccentricity of ALL the other planets. The next level of sub-eccentricity cycles from Primarily Jupiter causes the near 900 year warming and cooling. An even longer cycle causes nominal 50,000 year eccentricity cycles (e.g. the 25KY half cycle of ice age warming Even longer Jupiter sub-eccentricity cycles cause ice age warming and cooling Even longer Jupiter eccentricity cycles result in the Earth Eccentricity nominal 2.4 MY year cycle and the appropriate changes in the climate. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 8 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 4. SHORTER TERM (1-10Year) ENERGY IMPACTS At this point we look at a chart with the SUM of the three major components of the forces of gravity Dark blue is Jupiter, light blue is Jupiter plus Saturn, & Brown is the sum of all three. The following Fig 4-1 shows a shorter term (1980-2015) chart of the major sources of energy (from Jupiter Saturn and Venus) into the Earth. The larger Energy from the Moon’s orbit is not included but if multi-month timeframes were of interest then they would have to be addressed. Just as if daily temperatures of interest then one must consider the daily variations due to Earth rotation and variations in solar insolation. Note the frequency of brown peaks corresponding to the short periods every 3 ¼ years when Venus approaches the Earth orbit to maximize the amount of energy on Earth. It is the coincidence of the Venus approach and both Saturn and Jupiter approaching their maximum energy points that results in the 1998, (and 1878) type abnormal peaks in warming. The next big Venus peak is due in Oct 2010, and since it is peaking with Venus below the Sun Earth ecliptic plane, and Jupiter is also peaking with maximum energy below this plane, then Oct 2010 should be expected to have its maximum warming impact in the Southern hemisphere.- a warmer than usually spring. The next Venus peak is in January 2014 The 3.25 year peaks due to Venus (brown) can be seen where they dominate for short periods (under a month) for 4 cycles and then are less significant for the next 11 years. This is what will cause the Oct 2010, and the Jan 2014 temperature peaks. Venus’s orbital variations are ALSO induced by Jupiter’s 12 year orbit. Then you can observe that the light blue (mostly) Jupiter plus Saturn peaks, occur every about 12 years. Note that the2000 peak is slightly higher than either the1986 or the 2010 peak. I.e. Our temperature topped out in the 19982005 period. On an even shorter time period everyone knows that the Earth rotation dictates daily fluctuations in the solar insolation, and seasonal changes are dictated by Earths annual eccentricity. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 9 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 5. ECLIPTIC (SUN-EARTH) PLANE VARIATIONS The following Figure 5-1, “Orbits, Eccentricity and Latitude Angles, attempts to visualize how the various planetary locations can impact the forces and Energy on Earth. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. First it should be noted that when Jupiter is at its closest point to the Sun (blue P) and also when Saturn is at its closest point (pink P, in top right corner) then both planets are ALSO at their most negative latitudes or largest angle below the Sun-Earth Ecliptic plane. I.e. Their force of gravity on Earth is maximized at some point in between (as pictured) , and their Gravitational Potential Energy (respectively to Jupiter and Saturn) on Earth is minimized, resulting in the warmest temperature on Earth. The forces (& temperature) will maximize on Earth in the Southern Hemisphere since it is closest to the planets causing the gravity. (for the purist- the cycle length of the latitude and the shortest distance vary on different frequencies – so do not apply this “rule” exactly over multi- thousand year periods!) When 11.86 or about 12 years later, Jupiter completes one orbit, then the energy again approaches the maximum, but both Saturn and Earth will be at slightly different locations due to their orbital periods. This creates the Jupiter induced near 12 year energy cycles In about 60 years, the Jupiter/Saturn resonance period, their orbits will again coincide for a maximum, similar to what is pictured. This is what causes the near 60 year Earth temperature cycle. In addition to their regular orbits, both Jupiter and Saturn have near 900 year (& longer) eccentricity subcycles, which causes the pictured orbits to expand or contract (more or less eccentric). This is what is shown for Jupiter in Fig 4. There are also longer term eccentricity sub-cycles which presumably relate to ice age cycles etc. It is also assumed that the Earth tilt cycle is related to the rotation of the Jupiter/Saturn latitude cycles through their own eccentricity cycles which do not necessarily correspond to the eccentricity cycles of the distance Venus, since it orbits in about 0.7 years, will result in much more frequent Gravity peaks which also vary depending upon the Earth and Venus Eccentricity. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 10 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 The short term (<20 Yr) frequency of the various cycles for the Latitude Angles (or Peak Temperature Timing Indicator, of the planets Jupiter, Saturn and Venus, are shown in figure 5-2 below. Note that when you get all three planets at their peak negative latitudes (which also corresponds to their recent closest points to earth in 1998, and hence peak gravity and minimum Potential Energy) then you get the approximate 1998-2000 peak temperature. The 1880 and 1940 peaks also can be observed on longer term charts and below in the next figure . Note also that when Jupiter bottoms (most negative latitude, shortest distance) in Oct 2010, Venus ALSO bottoms thus predicting the next warming peak, in the Southern Hemisphere. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 11 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 When combined into an arbitrary Peak Temperature Timing Indicator (i.e. sum of the two dominant Jupiter and Saturn latitudes) you get figure 5-3 PTTI & Temperature vs Time, which shows how the Jupiter and Saturn negative Latitude peaks and hence gravity peaks correspond to the Earth temperature peaks and cycles. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 12 John Dodds: Gravity causes Climate Change R2 Note how the redlines (1,2,3…) correspond to the recent 60 year temperature peaks. Also that where the data is sufficiently detailed, the 12 year peaks for Jupiter orbits can be observed as sub-cycles within the 60 year cycles. Note how the blue vertical line (~1790) which indicates a change in secondary peaks of the latitudes, ALSO corresponds to the change in direction from cooling to warming in the temperature data. Due primarily to the eccentric orbits of Jupiter and Saturn, and the subsequent Earth eccentricity caused by Jupiter etc, the energy from gravity coming into the Earth varies in both magnitude (due to distance) and latitude angles above and below the Sun-Earth ecliptic plane. This latitude variation results in the energy source for the NorthSouth variations in El Nino/La Nina, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the SOI, and the NAO etc , and desert movements (West Africa/Sahara/Australia etc). There have been numerous studies that have identified the correlation of El Nino etc to the Earth temperature variations and weather patterns/hurricanes/cyclones/drought/rainfall etc. This paper identifies that the gravity/PE variations primarily due to Jupiter Saturn and Venus eccentricity are the direct cause of the increases and decreases in energy that drive the El Nino etc weather patterns. This makes these patterns predictable, in a manner similar to how tide tables are predictable based on the positions of the Earth rotation and the sun and moons gravity. The combination of a reduced energy input after every sixty year peak (1880, 1940, 1998, 2058…) and the location of primarily Jupiter at its most extreme southern latitude point, results in the recent northern hemisphere colder winters (1999-2009), and southern hemisphere warmer summer on the same 60 year cycle as the Jupiter/Saturn resonances. This is why the current northern winters are colder, like they were from the 1940-70. The more southern location of Jupiter forces a reduced energy input to the Hadley circulation cells moving them south from the colder Arctic into the USA, Europe and Asia, the more temperature southern US weather moves into the Caribbean resulting in fewer hurricanes, the warmer tropical weather due to increased Jupiter gravity moves further south into Northern Australia and Indonesia causing more frequent and stronger cyclones going further south, and the hot dry air in the Sahara and Central Australia moves south causing more droughts and fires in Southwest Africa, South Australia and Victoria. Thirty years later as Jupiter/Saturn get more northern and further away, the cycle reverses and the northern cooling reverses resulting in milder northern winters for 30 years (1970-98). Of course there are also 12 year (Jupiter orbit) and one year (Earth orbit) sub cycles. The latter are called seasons. The knowledge of the gravitational energy forcing of longer term weather patterns will allow much more accurate forecasts of ice ages, drought/wet seasons, hurricane/cyclone seasons, and general agricultural conditions to allow man to adapt accordingly. The larger gravity sources of energy and potential energy (e.g. gravity causes tidal energy etc) are not included in the insolation only based IPCC AR4 analyses which thus invalidates these analyses and conclusions In addition the solar insolation is the sole source of energy for the Milankovitch cycle theory, but adding gravity as a source of energy solves its most significant problem of having insufficient energy variation to account for ice ages. CONCLUSION In conclusion, the current IPCC analyses attribute global warming to the addition of CO2 to the air, when in fact the limited amount of energy photons coming into the earth limits the amount of greenhouse effect warming.. This results in more EXCESS, unused CO2 in the air but no additional warming. The alternate sources of energy created by gravity due to planetary eccentricity and the subsequent Gravitational Potential Energy dictate the global climate temperatures. The basis for the gravity and Potential Energy sources is discussed in John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming available at www.scribd.com. Supplement 1 R2 to Ch2 of John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming 13