Chapter 4
Team 1: 85.
What happened to Team 1 in this case?!
16: What is the worst possible outcome for each alternative?
17: There was no attempt to solve this problem either using CB or excel.
Case: St. Dimas (I’m not sure the spelling of this word) was not the assigned case.
Team 2: 91
13-15: Correct
16 I think b, d have the worst possible outcome.
17: Incorrect probability: You have used normal distribution. Engineering labor hours
should be modeled using a uniform distribution. Some other costs follow triangular
distribution. It was OK using normal distribution if you have stated your assumption.
Case 2: The managerial implications of the differences in the average of the simulation
and statistical methods are that simulation demonstrates the uncertainty of the project
from the vast range of possible outcomes it produces.
Team 3: 90
13: Correct
14: Correct
15: These are cost values. The lowest EV is the best choice here.
16: Correct
17: Engineering labor hours should be modeled using a uniform distribution. You
correctly used a triangular distribution for the remaining factors, but then you used
normal distribution to calculate the probability. The probability distribution of the
simulation models are not necessarily normal. You need to use their histograms.
Case 2: Why did you not consider the cash outflow in your calculations? All variables
had normal distribution except useful life of equipment. Your histogram is not properly
labeled to fit with your trial values. The managerial implications of the differences in the
average of the simulation and statistical methods are that simulation demonstrates the
uncertainty of the project from the vast range of possible outcomes it produces.
Team 4: 93
13: Correct
14: Correct
15: Correct
16: Correct
17: Engineering labor hours should be modeled using a uniform distribution. It is unclear
whether your probability is the result of estimation, or of calculation.
Case 2: The cost of equipment should be a cash outflow at the beginning of the project.
All variables had normal distribution except useful life of equipment. You have
demonstrated some good understanding/analysis of CB results.
Team 5: 92
Please do not print unnecessary material; only submit what you need to support your
analysis.
13: Correct
14: Correct
15: These are cost values. The lowest EV is the best choice here.
16: I think b,d have the worst possible outcome.
17: Engineering labor hours should be modeled using a uniform distribution. In your
simulation analysis, you list cost or time. Since you are given all cost information, you
should compare only costs, not some costs and some hours.
Case 2: Not enough analysis. You only calculated for one year, but not the following
years. I always encourage tabular representation, but please make sure it is well formatted
and easy to read (Q1,2). The managerial implications of the differences in the average of
the simulation and statistical methods are that simulation demonstrates the uncertainty of
the project from the vast range of possible outcomes it produces.
Team 6: 95
13: Correct
14: Correct
15: Correct
16: Correct
17: Engineering labor hours should be modeled using a uniform distribution.
Case 2: Where is the spreadsheet for your calculations showing 1000 replications? The
managerial implications of the differences in the average of the simulation and statistical
methods are that simulation demonstrates the uncertainty of the project from the vast
range of possible outcomes it produces.
Team 7: 96
13: Correct
14: Correct
15: Correct
16: Correct
17: Engineering labor hours should be modeled using a uniform distribution.
Case 2: The managerial implications of the differences in the average of the simulation
and statistical methods are that simulation demonstrates the uncertainty of the project
from the vast range of possible outcomes it produces.
Team 8: 90
13: Correct
14: Correct
15: These are cost values. The lowest EV is the best choice here.
16: Correct
17: Engineering labor hours should be modeled using a uniform distribution.
Case 2: The cost of equipment should be a cash outflow indicated at the beginning of the
project. You should have attempted to simulate the project with excel.