06/TTT/RR/##
System for Storm Analysis Using Multiple Data Sets
FY 2007
October 20, 2006
Principal Investigator: Robert M. Rabin
Line Organization:
Routing Code:
Address:
NOAA/NSSL
R/E/NS
National Severe Storms Laboratory
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman
Oklahoma, 73072
Phone:
Fax:
E-mail Address:
(405) 325-6336
(405) 325-6780
bob.rabin@noaa.gov
Other Investigators:
Lakshmanan (CIMSS, University of Oklahoma): v.lakshmanan@noaa.gov
(NOAA/NESDIS): jaime.daniels@noaa.gov
(NOAA/CREST, City College of New York): agruber@ce.ccny.edu
(NOAA/SPC): steven.j.weiss@noaa.gov
(University of Wisconsin-Madison): tomw@ssec.wisc.edu
Valliappa
Jaime Daniels
Arnie Gruber
Steven Weiss
Tom Whittaker
Proposal Theme:
Technologies for Modeling, Analysis, or Visualization
Funding Summary:
FY 2007 $ 38,000 (in-kind matching: $15,000)
Dr. Robert M. Rabin
Research Meteorologist
NOAA/NSSL
Dr. James Kimpel
Director
NOAA/NSSL
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Dr. Russell Schneider
Chief, Science Support Branch
NOAA/NWS/SPC
System for Storm Analysis Using Multiple Data Sets
Proposal for FY 2007 HPCC Funding
Prepared by: Robert M. Rabin
Executive Summary:
This multi-Line Office, multi-university (NESDIS, NWS, OAR) proposal addresses the
“Technologies for modeling, analysis, or visualization” theme. It builds upon three previous
HPCC projects (CRAFT, WDSS-II, and “Tool for storm analysis using multiple data sets”). The
project makes optimal use of high bandwidth data transfer in utilizing large real-time data sets,
such as high resolution radar and satellite data over the entire CONUS.
The first project objective is to extend the web-based "Tool for storm analysis using multiple
data sets" to include additional observational data and to provide short-term forecasts of storm
location and relevant atmospheric conditions. Additional data will include derived products
from the national network of WSR-88D Doppler radars, such as estimates of storm relative
inflow, hail diagnosis, rotation tracks, and air convergence not routinely available elsewhere.
Tracking of satellite, radar reflectivity fields and estimated precipitation will be linked together
utilizing an existing approach which accounts for 1) movement of multiple scales, and 2)
movement of cloud and radar reflectivity and 'forecast' positions 1-2 hours into the future
(Lakshamanan, 2003).
The second objective is to provide output from this tool to operational units in NOAA. This
includes testing at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), transfer of imagery to AWIPS and NAWIPS, and input to a nowcasting system for greater New York City (in collaboration with
NOAA cooperative institute CREST).
Problem Statement:
The ability to cross-reference large amounts of data (from diverse sources) at time-variable
locations (such as along the path of a moving storm) is an important requirement for research and
operational applications. Currently, this functionality exists in systems designed for tracking
individual storms from radar and for plotting time-series of specific attributes deduced from
radar data, such as properties of storm rotation, hail signatures, etc. However, the ability to track
larger-scale thunderstorm clusters simultaneously from radar and satellite imagery and to
interrogate multiple sets for comparative time-trends of environmental properties needs further
development. State-of-the-art numerical forecast models have difficulty in accurately predicting
the formation, propagation, and dissipation of these large thunderstorm clusters. Forecasters are
faced with the task of anticipating the future of such storm systems from examination of current
and projected trends in atmospheric conditions such as wind shear and thermodynamic stability.
Advancement in our understanding of these type of storms depend on careful studies of how they
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relate to environmental conditions and on observable attributes from multiple sensors such as
radar, satellite and lightning detection. The development proposed here will help facilitate the
inter-comparison of a wide variety of measurements in the frame of reference of the phenomena
under study, the storms themselves. It will also provide forecasters the ability to better visualize
factors being considered in anticipating future movement and intensity of these large storm
complexes.
Proposed Solution:
The proposed methodology is based on expanding the web-based "Tool for storm analysis using
multiple data sets". We will utilize algorithms and data from the Warning and Decision Support
System (WDSS-II) to develop tracking and short-term (1-2 hr) extrapolation of cloud and radar
reflectivity together. In the prior web-based implementation, user determined thresholds were
required for tracking cloud and radar features. Also, separate tracking was performed on satellite
and radar features. The approach here will be to employ automated tracking of a range of scales
of combined radar and satellite features using the technique of Lakshmanan et al. (2003). The
technique, based on K-means clustering of vector fields, will be enhanced to track radar and
satellite fields simultaneously. The output product will include tracks of larger cold cloud
shields, broad reflectivity areas and embedded smaller scale features such as overshooting colder
cloud tops, radar echo line structures, etc. In addition, short-term forecast positions of all the
features and precipitation rates (satellite and radar based) will be estimated using an
extrapolation procedure which includes information on the advective wind. Output will also
include times-series of satellite and radar statistics within the overall cloud shield and smaller
elements (size, cloud top temperature, mean and peak reflectivity, rain rate, etc.). Data from
other sensors (lightning) and model analysis and forecast data will be used to create time-series
for comparison with the radar-satellite statistics. Such data will be from a variety of sources
including the SPC and NCAR. Unique products from the national network of WSR-88D
Doppler radars, such as estimates of storm relative inflow and air convergence, will also be
included. These products are unavailable elsewhere, but can be evaluated from level-II radar
data in WDSS-II.
Where feasible, the output data described above from WDSS-II will be imported into a webbased tool of the form developed previously. This will allow accessibility and display of data to
the general community and without the requirement to run the WDSS-II locally.
Besides the web-based tool for viewing data, data will be imported on an experimental basis to
N-AWIPS in collaboration at the SPC, and in AWIPS in collaboration with NESDIS and MDL.
Output will include image loops containing observed and projected storm tracks. (We have
successfully imported other, similar products into AWIPS and N-AWIPS). Since implementing
major changes to AWIPS and N-AWIPS is not practical, we propose a temporary solution to
include information from time-series plots. The images will contain overlays and enhancements
which when looped provide visual information normally included in time-series plots. For
example, the cloud shield can be color enhanced to indicate the magnitude of deep layer shear in
its vicinity, lightning density, and environmental parameters.
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Analysis:
This project provides a cost effective means to further develop tools for research and operations
which evaluate and display time trends of a diverse set of variables in the reference frame of
propagating storms. The project will leverage tasks from other existing projects in NOAA:
1)The first is a collaborative effort between NESDIS (Jaime Daniels) and MDL. In that project,
an effort is underway to import various GOES satellite products into AWIPS (in parallel to
SCAN which uses radar data), 2) A collaborative effort between NSSL and MDL which has
successfully pushed LMA and radar analysis products to AWIPS workstations at four different
WFO's in 2005, 3) The third is a collaborative effort with NESDIS and CREST (NOAA
Cooperative Institute) to develop a nowcasting system for the greater New York City region.
Our proposed HPCC efforts are of interest to these three programs and we will benefit from
working together on the import of data into AWIPS and implementation and testing of the
tracking tools.
Performance Measures:
Performance will be measured by successful completion of the following:
1) Enhancement of the K-means algorithm to track radar and satellite simultaneously. Tracking
of satellite, radar reflectivity fields and estimated precipitation will be linked together by
enhancing an existing approach which accounts for 1) movement of multiple scales, and 2)
movement of cloud and radar reflectivity and 'forecast' positions 1-2 hours into the future
(Lakshamanan, 2003).
2) Implementation of additional observational data useful in providing short-term forecasts of
storm location and relevant atmospheric conditions. Additional data will include derived
products from the national network of WSR-88D Doppler radars, such as estimates of storm
relative inflow and air convergence not routinely available elsewhere.
3) Transfer of output from this tool to operational units in NOAA. This includes testing at the
Storm Prediction Center (SPC), transfer of imagery to AWIPS and N-AWIPS, and input to a
nowcasting system for greater New York City (in collaboration with NOAA cooperative institute
CREST).
Milestones
Month 01 - enhancements of K-means algorithm
Month 03 - enhancement of web tool to ingest radar grids
Month 06 - successful demonstration of radar-satellite tracking in web-based display
Month 09 - successful demonstration of products in AWIPS and N-AWIPS
Month 12 - implementation and testing of precipitation nowcasting in NYC metro area
in collaboration CREST project
Deliverables
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●
Deliverable 1: Working system providing the tracking of satellite, radar reflectivity,
estimated precipitation, 'forecast' positions 1-2 hours, and time trends in environmental
variables.
●
Deliverable 2: Viewable outputs in AWIPS and N-AWIPS.
Budget Summary:
Category
Detailed Description
Personnel Compensation
P.I. (Rabin 1 month) (NOAA FTE Salaries)
Contracts or Services
V. Lakshmanan, CIMMS ($19,000)
NSSL IT Personnel ($8,000)
Tom Whittaker, CIMSS, Univ. WisconsinMadison) ($5,000)
Rent, Communications, Utilities
Circuit charges
Capital Expenses
Hardware (Workstation and storage)
Software
other
Supplies and Materials
Expendable items
Training/Travel
Travel to Madison (CIMSS) and D.C.
(NOAA/NESDIS and MDL)
Other
shipping, printing, misc.
Amount
$0
$32,000.00
$0.00
$ 3,000.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$0.00
$3,000.00
$0.00
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Total Requested:
$38,000.00
Matching/In-kind funds:
NSSL – Rabin (PI, 1 month) $7,000
NSSL – Kurt Hondl (WDSS) $4,000
Storm Prediction Center – Steve Weiss $4,000
Total Matching: $15,000
Category
Detailed Description
Recurring Costs
Actual
Contracts or Services
Maintenance only
Rent, Communications, Utilities
Total Recurring:
Administrative Officer:
Linda Skaggs
Phone:
E-mail Address:
405-325-6910
Linda.Skaggs@noaa.gov
FMC Number:
954
6
Potential
FY 2007
FY 2008
FY 2009
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
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$0.00
$0.00
$0.00