EDRM: 3424188
BUSINESS CASE
AFRICAN INSTITUTE FOR MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Intervention Summary
What support will the UK provide?
1. DFID will provide up to £18.16m, over 5 years, for the Next Einstein Initiative of
the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS-NEI). We will provide these
funds to the extent that AIMS-NEI is able to secure matching funding from the
private sector, other donors and host governments. Canada’s International
Development Research Centre (IDRC) will be responsible for management and
financial oversight of the DFID contribution.
Why is UK support required?
2. Countries across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lack highly qualified and skilled
maths and science graduates. This constrains human development and
economic growth – as these graduates are urgently needed to fill critical skills
gaps in the academic, public and private sectors. Raising the level and quality of
higher education in SSA could stimulate innovation, promote the diversification of
products and services and maximise returns from capital assets.
3. AIMS-NEI is an innovative organisation with strong and dynamic leadership. The
effectiveness of the existing AIMS centre in South Africa has been proven over a
10 year period. Its graduates have pursued diverse career paths with, for
example, many becoming lecturers and researchers working on solutions to
SSA’s development challenges.
4. AIMS-NEI now plans to expand into a continent-wide network of 6 centres of
excellence. These will provide accredited Masters, and in some cases PhD,
Mathematical Science Degrees to top quality graduates from across SSA. Each
centre will develop a curriculum tailored to the requirements of the local labour
market and national research needs. The centres will also deliver outreach
programmes to build interest in, and capacity for, maths and science at the
school level.
What are the expected results?
5. AIMS is an innovative programme and it is difficult to define and quantify the
results in advance. To date, the majority of its graduates have continued within
academia after leaving AIMS. The current proposal, however, includes a new
focus on business skills and we envisage that more of the graduates will enter
the workplace. There is only limited evidence on the workplace demand for these
graduates and it will be essential to monitor their careers with alumni tracking.
We anticipate that the graduates, as they advance in their careers, will replenish
ageing professoriates, undertake research and fill critical skills gaps in private
1
and public sectors – and will have potential for catalytic impacts on national
development processes. The expected impact, outcome and outputs are:
 Impact: Enhanced mathematical science capacity of Africa’s academic
community and workforce to develop innovative solutions for development
and economic growth.
 Outcome: Increased number of well-qualified AIMS graduates engaged in
private and public sectors, academia, business and civil society.
 Output 1: Increased access to quality mathematical science education
AIMS-NEI will consolidate its operations in South Africa and Senegal and
establish four new centres in Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Benin (Ghana
and Ethiopia are already part funded by IDRC). The DFID funding will enable
AIMS to reach an additional 1,200 to 1,300 graduates over 5 years. The AIMS
centres will also seek to become regional centres of excellence, to strengthen
their partner universities and to provide a foundation for standardisation and
improved capacity across SSA.
 Output 2: Enhanced quality and relevance of the AIMS education
The AIMS curriculum will be enhanced with new modules in employability,
entrepreneurship and business skills. This will improve students’ opportunities
on graduation, particularly in senior business positions. AIMS-NEI will also
establish links with private sector companies to seek financing, develop its
curriculum, solicit internships and mentoring for students, place graduates
and develop opportunities to make its research applicable for industry.
 Output 3: Increased demand for and interest in mathematical sciences
In partnership with the Perimeter Institute in Canada and other institutions, the
six AIMS centres will deliver educational outreach programmes to
communicate the importance of maths and science to school students,
teachers, parents, policy makers and the public.1
 Output 4: Increased efficiency and sustainability of the AIMS network
AIMS-NEI will build and strengthen its Secretariat. For example, the
Secretariat will standardise operations across the network and build the
capacity of individual centres in financial management, M&E, IT and resource
mobilisation. A fundraising professional will develop a strategy to secure the
match funding from private sector, governments and international universities.
 Output 5: Comprehensive M&E and alumni survey
AIMS-NEI will undertake annual alumni surveys and monitoring and
evaluation to assess the social and economic impact of its graduates. AIMSNEI will use this information to make its centres and courses more effective.
1http://www.perimeterinstitute.ca/en/Outreach/General/Outreach_Overview/
2
Strategic Case
A. Context and need for a DFID intervention
The Need for More and Better Higher Education
6. There is international consensus that donors need to invest more to improve
education in developing countries. This builds on clear evidence that education
enhances peoples’ ability to lead happier, healthier and more productive lives.
DFID’s priority in education remains the access of all children to a good quality
basic education but it also recognises the importance of higher education. This
supports human development and there are also increasing economic benefits of
having a highly skilled workforce within the ever more globalised world economy.
7. DFID is now allocating 10% of its education spend to higher education, including
support for capacity building through the Development Partnerships in Higher
Education (DelPHE) programme and £87m over 4 years (2011-15) to the
Commonwealth Scholarships Commission (CSC). The CSC funds
Commonwealth graduates and professionals to study in development-related
fields at UK universities and other UK institutions. This helps build academic
capacity and workforce skills in developing countries; achieving this largely by
importing education from the UK rather than by focusing on building the
developing countries’ own higher education institutions.
8. Enrolment rates in higher education in SSA are improving but remain the lowest
in the world at only 5%.2 SSA is also at or near the bottom in almost all measures
for higher education access, relevance, quality and gender parity.3 However,
recent improvements in access to primary and secondary education have
created a growing demand across SSA for higher education – as young people
seek the right qualifications and skills to help fulfil their aspirations.
9. Many countries in SSA have seen higher education standards deteriorate due to
growing class sizes, weak capacity at professoriate level, no system of
standardisation and few internationally respected institutions. This has
depreciated the value of the qualifications that the region is able to offer.4
Compounding these issues is the frequent exclusion of capable students
because of their socio-economic status, ethnicity or rural origins. Higher
education supply constraints are also expected to increase because teaching
staffs have high age profiles and will retire in large numbers in coming years.
10. Many countries have recognised these issues and made efforts to strengthen
their higher education systems. They continue, however, to face difficulties
providing higher education at a sufficient quantity and quality to build the human
capital required to accelerate Africa’s economic development. Investment is
World Bank (2009) Accelerating Catch-Up: Tertiary Education for Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Bloom, D., Canning, D., Chan, K. (2005) Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa. Harvard
3 UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2011) Global Education Digest: Comparing Education Statistics Across the World
4 World Bank (2009) Accelerating Catch-Up: Tertiary Education for Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Bloom, D., Canning, D., Chan, K. (2005) Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa. Harvard
2
3
needed to replace, replenish and grow teaching capacity. Recent anaemic
economic performance in developed countries, and resilient growth performance
in SSA, presents an opportunity for a potential ‘brain gain’ and a climate
increasingly conducive to the retention of highly skilled workers.
11. The World Bank report Accelerating Catch-up: Tertiary Education for Growth in
Sub-Saharan Africa (2009) provides a comprehensive summary of the status of
higher education in Africa and clearly describes the importance of improvement:
“Each additional year of education can yield 10-15% returns in the form of
higher wages. Furthermore, micro studies are identifying links between skills
and higher productivity at the level of the firm, while research using macro
data is showing that research and development (R&D) raises productivity, as
does the quality of education (measured by middle school test scores). In
fact, a one-year increase in average tertiary education levels would raise
annual GDP growth in SSA by 0.39 percentage points and increase the longrun steady state level of African GDP per capita by 12 per cent … By raising
the level of education and its quality, countries in SSA may be able to
stimulate innovation, promote the diversification of products and services, and
maximize returns from capital assets through more efficient allocation and
management. In the face of competition from South and East Asian countries,
a more skill-intensive route to development could provide both resource-rich
and resource-poor countries an avenue for raising domestic value added ... in
light of recent trends in technology, neglecting tertiary education could
seriously jeopardize longer-term growth prospects of SSA countries.”
12. DFID is looking to support innovative approaches to build the capacity of higher
education in SSA to: (a) produce academics that can provide a world-class
higher education for future cohorts5; (b) research the solutions to Africa’s
development challenges; and (c) provide a top quality education that gives
graduates the right skills to be effective employees and wealth creators.
The African Institute for Mathematical Sciences & Next Einstein Initiative
13. The African Institute for Mathematical Sciences Next Einstein Initiative (AIMSNEI) is a non-profit network of higher education and research centres, which also
provide educational and schools outreach. The first centre was established in
South Africa in 2003 and a second in Senegal in 2011, both with funding from
Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC). Each AIMS
centre provides top quality maths and science graduates from across Africa with
a one-year intensive residential course in mathematical sciences (previously
Diploma now changing to Masters). The programme is offered at no cost to the
students and AIMS-NEI recruits applicants that have high academic potential,
demonstrate a commitment to African development and will build towards 40%
female student intake within 5 years (the long-term goal is 50% female students).
5
Many developing countries have identified the lack of suitably qualified academic staff as a constraint. A recent analysis of academic
faculties in 15 African countries noted high and increasing student-staff ratios, coupled with low numbers holding doctorates (28% in
Ghana, 15% in Mozambique and 12% in Uganda). Tettley, W., 2010.
4
The AIMS centres rely on a significant number of external lecturers contributing
their time pro bono on a rotating 2-3 week basis. This is an approach that AIMSNEI has driven and which is integral to their model. AIMS-NEI intends that its
graduates should replenish and enhance the quality of the ageing professoriate
in local universities, generate research for Africa’s development challenges and
fill skills gaps in the private and public sectors.
14. The first centre, AIMS-South Africa, was established as a collaboration between
six local and international universities (Oxford, Cambridge, Stellenbosch,
Western Cape, Cape Town and Universite Paris Sud X1). AIMS-South Africa
also has an educational outreach programme; the AIMS Schools Enrichment
Centre (AIMSSEC: http://aimssec.aims.ac.za). This works with schools to build
interest in maths and science and improve the teaching of these subjects. It
provides free learning resources for students and free training to primary and
secondary school teachers. AIMSSEC has recently been awarded a $90,000
UNESCO Hamdam bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Prize for outstanding practice and
performance in enhancing the effectiveness of teachers.
15. Building on the success of AIMS-South Africa, the AIMS Next Einstein Initiative
(AIMS-NEI) was launched in 2009 with the long-term vision of expanding AIMS
into a network of 15 centres of excellence across Africa by 2021. The proposal in
this Business Case would see AIMS-NEI expand into a total of 6 centres (South
Africa, Senegal, Ghana, Tanzania, Benin and Ethiopia).
16. AIMS-NEI established a second centre in Senegal in 2011 and has secured partfunding to establish new centres in Ghana and Ethiopia from donors including
IDRC ($20m total), Google Africa ($2m) and the Government of Ghana ($1.5m).
Plans are already underway to proceed with these 2 part-funded centres.
17. The term Mathematical Science refers to disciplines that are mathematical in
nature but may not be universally considered subfields of mathematics. These
include statistics, computer science, computational science, operations research,
cryptology, econometrics, theoretical physics and actuarial science. The AIMS
centres offer a variety of courses including Mathematical Finance, Mathematical
Biology and a broad MSc in Mathematical Science which provides an overview of
cutting-edge sciences, maths and computing research skills. The course includes
a range of topics – allowing the students to make an informed choice as to their
future specialisation. There is a strong grounding in end-to-end skills, from
problem formulation, estimation, prioritization, and generally applicable maths
and computing methods, through to concise scientific report writing.
18. Each AIMS centre tailors its curriculum to the needs of the local, regional and
SSA labour market and research needs. AIMS-South Africa is focused on
biomathematics and financial mathematics. AIMS-Senegal is focused on
cryptography and computer science applications of mathematics. AIMS-Ghana is
expected to focus on energy and climate modelling. AIMS-NEI also proposes to
allocate 5-10% of its curriculum to business and management skills in order to
enhance the transferability of its graduates to their respective labour markets.
5
Focus on Mathematical Sciences, Technology and Skills for Employability
19. The World Bank’s 1999 Knowledge for Development report shows a correlation
between education in maths, science and engineering and improved economic
performance. In the developed world, maths and science higher education
provide the foundational skills for the technology and innovation that drive
economic growth (technological innovation is estimated to have accounted for
63% of annual labour productivity growth in the UK since 2000).
20. International comparisons are difficult but it is worth noting that many observers
attribute India’s economic success, at least in part, as stemming from sustained
support for the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs).6 These demonstrate the
potential of a network of donor-supported institutions providing high-quality and
technically oriented tertiary education. A 2009 study found that 50% of the
professionals in chief executive or strategic business leadership roles in India are
either from the IITs or the closely related Indian Institutes of Management.7
21. The African Development Bank’s Strategy for Higher Education, Science and
Technology (2008) also highlights the need to reform Africa’s education system
to take a technological lead in the transition to a knowledge-based economy. The
strategy recognizes the value-added of science and technology, research,
innovation, vocational training and skills development.
22. Many economies in SSA have significant primary commodity endowments and
are reliant upon extractive industries to realise their economic value. At present,
significant skill gaps mean that many of the employment opportunities these offer
are filled by imported labour. For example, DFID Tanzania reports that BG
Group, a global leader in the natural gas industry, have made a major finding in
the country but see the lack of individuals with skills in science technology,
engineering and maths as a major risk. This is not only because BG requires
such individuals, but also because they require skilled interlocutors in
Government. Additionally, such skills shortages represent a significant barrier to
progression into higher value-added activities, such as refining, which yield
further employment opportunities with higher labour productivity.
23. Employer surveys in SSA also report that tertiary graduates have weak skills for
employability including problem solving, business understanding, computer use,
communication and teamwork skills (Larsen, Kim, and Theus 2009). 8 Gaps in IT
skills are pervasive, while communication and negotiation, leadership, initiative,
creativity and problem-solving are also mentioned as lacking by employers.
24. Mismatches between the education offered and the capabilities needed in the job
market contribute to high unemployment among graduates across SSA. A
Basant, R., Chandra, P. (2007) Linking Technical Education to Business Growth: A Case Study on Building Technical Skills in India,
India
7http://www.livemint.com/2009/03/23174842/IIT-IIM-alumni-form-half-of-I.html Accessed February 2012.
8 The World Bank (2010), Innovation Policy: A Guide for Developing Countries
6
6
renewed focus is needed on providing graduates with higher education and skills
for employment that are effectively matched to labour market needs.
The AIMS-NEI Proposal
25. In response to these issues, AIMS-NEI is seeking £18.16m (£16.5m for AIMSNEI and £1.65m for IDRC to undertake management and financial oversight)
funding from DFID. These funds will help AIMS-NEI: (a) consolidate its first two
centres and ensure its courses are free for the students; (b) establish four further
centres in Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Benin (Ghana and Ethiopia are already
part funded by IDRC); (c) add business and management skills as a 5-10%
component of its curriculum; and (d) gather research and evidence on its
innovative model of financing education. Each AIMS centre would recruit 55
students per year.
26. Whilst no guarantee of funding has been given, DFID has advised that it would
only be able to provide support on a match-funding basis. In practice, this means
that AIMS-NEI will also seek up to £18m from private companies, host
governments and other sources and the DFID funding would only be provided in
so far as these matching contributions are secured.
Why should DFID fund?
27. The AIMS-NEI model offers high quality, intensive teaching and an exceptionally
low student to tutor/teacher ratio (approximately 7 to 1). This is an approach that
AIMS-NEI has driven and which is integral to its model. It offers value for money
because: (a) students do not travel to developed country universities; (b) a
significant portion of the lecturing is provided by visiting academics who volunteer
on a stipend-only basis; and (c) it enables South-South transfers, professional
networking and an improved opportunity to retain graduates within Africa which is
expected to deliver social benefits (see Appraisal Case). The educational and
schools outreach programme also leverages AIMS-NEI’s expertise and builds
interest in, and teaching capacity for, maths and science at the school level.
28. AIMS-NEI is led by a strong and dynamic team of high profile academics and
senior executives. This is headed by Professor Neil Turok, Director of the
Perimeter Institute (http://www.perimeterinstitute.ca) and holder of a Maxwell
medal for his contributions to theoretical physics.
29. Since 2003, 360 students from 32 African countries have graduated from AIMSSouth Africa. Over 95% have studied for Masters or PhD degrees after they left
AIMS South Africa. Over 75% currently remain in Africa. To date, 262 students
have completed or are completing Master’s degrees and 153 students have
completed or are completing PhDs. In total, 8% of AIMS South Africa graduates
are now pursuing careers in the private or public sectors with most others
continuing in academia. As an illustrative example, AIMS-South Africa graduate
Angelina Lutambi, is now a leading malaria researcher at the Ifakara Health
Institute in Tanzania (her home country). In future, AIMS-NEI will award Masters
Degrees rather than a Diploma and it expects the proportion of graduates
progressing direct to PhD or employment to increase.
7
30. Partnerships with public universities are central to the AIMS-NEI approach. Each
AIMS centre must establish six university partnerships and will work to leverage
and build the capacity of these partners. The centres must also develop a
specialist focus, agreed with the government and local universities to ensure
relevance to national needs. Staff and other resources are shared between AIMS
centres and public universities. Critically, AIMS graduates often go on to join and
strengthen the capacity of public universities – for example the University of
Khartoum has 7 AIMS graduates working as lecturers and AIMS graduates also
feature prominently in Universities in Ghana and Zambia. Host governments are
also partners and need to contribute 50% of the establishment costs for each
centre and cover 50% of operating costs from year 5. This approach to local
partnerships will complement the international Higher Education Partnership
Programmes, such as DelPHE, funded by DFID and other donors.
Complementarity / Differences with Commonwealth Scholarships Commission
31. The objectives of DFID support for AIMS-NEI and for the Commonwealth
Scholarships (see para 7) are overlapping and the initiatives are complementary.
Moving forward, AIMS-NEI and CSC will also explore whether there are
opportunities for collaborating on cross-site scholarships whereby students
spend one year at an AIMS centre and a further one to two years on a
commonwealth scholarship.
32. AIMS-NEI and CSC both aim to make quality higher education available to
graduates from developing countries and to build academic capacity and
workforce skills in these countries. Both initiatives are premised on an
assessment that public higher education institutions in SSA do not presently
provide the right environment for scaling up high quality postgraduate studies – a
shortcoming that needs to be addressed.
33. However, AIMS-NEI will be a new and distinct approach for DFID because it is:
 Focussed on mathematical sciences: AIMS-NEI will offer a top quality
education with >90% of its curriculum focussed on mathematical sciences;
 Africa-based with student body committed to African development:
Students will be able to study to Masters level within SSA rather than
travelling to UK universities (note: the CSC does include some programmes
based in country, notably its distance learning Masters programme).9
Students will also be selected from across SSA – as distinct from the
Commonwealth – and with a long term goal of 50% female students.
 Integrating business and management skills tailored to national needs:
This will be a 5-10% component of the curriculum at each AIMS centre. This
is especially important because AIMS-NEI will provide a launchpad for its
9Only
26% of aid to higher education in Africa is used in SSA. Financing Higher Education in Africa, World
Bank, 2010
8
graduates’ careers, whereas CSC focuses more on furthering the already
underway careers of its awardees.
 Partnered with local universities: AIMS-NEI will seek to become a network
of regional centres of excellence in mathematical sciences, to build national
higher education capacities and to provide a foundation for standardisation.
 Working with schools: AIMS-NEI will work to improve maths and science
teaching in primary and secondary schools through its outreach programmes.
 Integrated with National and Regional Planning: AIMS centres need to be
part funded by host governments. Furthermore, AIMS-NEI is an agreed New
Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) delivery mechanism for
achieving continent-wide maths, science and technology capacity and is
endorsed by the African Ministerial Council on Science. (Note: CSC also
endeavours to align with national priorities and a large proportion of the
scholars are nominated by national institutions to reflect national needs).
34. The AIMS-NEI alumni are expected to pursue diverse career paths (note: there is
only limited evidence on the demand for and career paths of AIMS graduates,
given the relatively small number that have completed their PhDs and entered
the workplace. Increased M&E and alumni tracking will be essential). Graduates
are expected to become university lecturers, researchers working on solutions to
SSA’s development challenges and to fill critical skills gaps in the public and
private sectors. The aggregate social benefits of these future activities are
extremely difficult to assess and value ex-ante – but there is potential for catalytic
impacts on national development processes.
35. This is an innovative programme and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) will be an
integral component. An M&E officer will be appointed to the AIMS-NEI
Secretariat. He/she will update and deliver on the M&E framework that has been
designed by AIMS-NEI with significant support from IDRC as part of its existing
programme of support to AIMS-NEI.
36. It will be important that DFID promotes cross-learning across the AIMS-NEI, CSC
and DelPHE initiatives. We will work with CSC and AIMS-NEI to develop
improved metrics and more objective ways of comparing, assessing and
evaluating the development impact of scholarship schemes.
B. Impact and Outcome that we expect to achieve
37. AIMS-NEI seeks to respond to the need to strengthen the human resources
available for development and economic growth within SSA. The impacts on
poverty reduction will be medium to long-term, often indirect in nature, and are
difficult to define quantitatively on an ex-ante basis (see VfM appraisal). There is
only limited evidence on the demand for, and career paths of, its graduates and
increased alumni tracking will be essential.
38. At full capacity, each AIMS centre will recruit 55 students per year. We anticipate
that the AIMS graduates will, as they progress in their careers, replenish ageing
9
professoriates, undertake research and fill critical skills gaps in private and public
sectors. The expected impact, outcome and outputs are listed below:
 Impact: Enhanced mathematical science capacity of Africa’s academic
community and workforce to develop innovative solutions for development
and economic growth.
 Outcome: Increased number of well-qualified AIMS graduates engaged in
private and public sectors, academia, business and civil society.
 Output 1: Increased access to quality mathematical science education
AIMS-NEI will consolidate its operations in South Africa and Senegal and
establish four new centres in Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Benin (Ghana
and Ethiopia are already part funded by IDRC). The DFID funding will enable
AIMS to reach an additional 1,200 to 1,300 graduates over 5 years. The AIMS
centres will also seek to become regional centres of excellence, to strengthen
their partner universities and to provide a foundation for standardisation and
improved capacity across SSA.
 Output 2: Enhanced quality and relevance of the AIMS education
The AIMS curriculum will be enhanced with new modules in employability,
entrepreneurship and business skills. This will improve students’ opportunities
on graduation, particularly in senior business positions. AIMS-NEI will also
establish links with private sector companies to seek financing, develop its
curriculum, solicit internships and mentoring for students, place graduates
and develop opportunities to make its research applicable for industry.
 Output 3: Increased demand for and interest in mathematical sciences
In partnership with the Perimeter Institute in Canada and other institutions, the
six AIMS centres will deliver educational outreach programmes to
communicate the importance of maths and science to school students,
teachers, parents, policy makers and the public.10
 Output 4: Increased efficiency and sustainability of the AIMS network
AIMS-NEI will build and strengthen its Secretariat. For example, the
Secretariat will standardise operations across the network and build the
capacity of individual centres in financial management, M&E, IT and resource
mobilisation. A fundraising professional will develop a strategy to secure the
match funding from private sector, governments and international universities.
 Output 5: Comprehensive M&E and alumni survey
AIMS-NEI will undertake annual alumni surveys and monitoring and
evaluation to assess the social and economic impact of its graduates. AIMSNEI will use this information to make its centres and courses more effective.
10http://www.perimeterinstitute.ca/en/Outreach/General/Outreach_Overview/
10
Appraisal Case
A. What are the options that address the need set out in the Strategic case?
39. The three possible options assessed in this Appraisal are:
40. Option 1: Support the full AIMS-NEI proposal with up to £18.16m of DFID
resource on a match funding basis for (a) consolidation of the existing centres in
South Africa and Senegal; and (b) establishment of four new and additional
AIMS centres in Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania and Benin (Ethiopia and Ghana are
already part-funded by IDRC); (c) addition of business and employability skills to
the AIMS-NEI curriculum; (d) delivery of educational and schools outreach
programmes in these countries; (e) strengthening of the AIMS-NEI secretariat to
increase its coordination and fundraising capacity; and (f) delivery of
comprehensive monitoring, evaluation and alumni surveys.
41. Option 2: Support a scaled down version of the AIMS-NEI proposal with up
to £12.22m on a match funding basis for (a) consolidation of the existing centres
in South Africa and Senegal; and (b) establishment of two new and additional
AIMS centres in Ghana and Ethiopia (these two centres are already part-funded
by IDRC); (c) addition of business and employability skills to the AIMS-NEI
curriculum; (d) delivery of educational and schools outreach programmes in four
countries; (e) strengthening of the AIMS-NEI secretariat to increase its
coordination and fundraising capacity; and (f) delivery of comprehensive
monitoring, evaluation and alumni surveys. The critical difference compared to
Option 1 is that this scaled down option would not include funding for the 2 new
proposed centres in Tanzania and Benin.
42. Option 3: Do nothing.
Assessing the strength of the evidence base for each option
43. In the table below the quality of evidence for each option is rated as either
Strong, Medium or Limited
Option
Evidence rating
1
2
3
Limited
Limited
Limited
44. Options 1 and 2 follow the same theory of change:

Countries in SSA suffer from shortages of highly-educated and skilled
mathematical science graduates.

These graduates are needed to build the capacity of academic, public
and private sectors in SSA to drive human and economic development.
11

The limited pool of skilled professionals that does exist has a male bias.
Equity has also been undermined by the limited access of poor and
marginalised groups to higher education and the scholarships within it.

Public higher education institutions in SSA do not presently provide
the right environment for scaling up high quality postgraduate studies – a
shortcoming that needs to be addressed.

The AIMS centres will offer high quality education, have the potential to
be regional centres of excellence, are partnered with public universities
and leverage and build the capacity of these partners, and work on
outreach to build interest and capacity at the school-level.

As a result of the intervention, it is anticipated that AIMS-NEI graduates
will enhance their skills and knowledge; will be employed and will remain
in academia, government or private sector employment and will be
motivated to contribute to SSA development efforts. This will help SSA
meet its academic and skilled labour force requirements, and thereby
enhance its ability to progress national development plans, drive wealth
creation and build capacity for high quality teaching and research.
45. The main assumptions underpinning options 1 and 2 are:

That donors, companies and governments are willing to co-fund the initiative;

That an appropriate number of high quality candidates are attracted and there
is a good gender balance in applications;

That AIMS-NEI is able to attract high quality lecturers to volunteer time in all
of its new centres;

That AIMS-NEI successfully replicates the high quality of AIMS South Africa;

That a high proportion of the students complete the course of study;

That graduates are motivated and successful in securing academic, private
sector and government jobs within Africa after they complete their studies
(there is only limited evidence on the demand for – and past career paths of –
AIMS graduates and increased M&E and alumni tracking is essential);

That AIMS-NEI is able to secure funding to secure its future post-DFID.
Likely impact (positive/negative) on climate change and environment?
Option Climate change and environment Climate change and environment
risks and impacts
opportunities
Low Risk
Low Opportunity
1
Low Risk
Low Opportunity
2
Low Risk
Low Opportunity
3
12
46. All the feasible options are assessed as likely to have a low impact on climate
change and the environment. Options 1 and 2 offer potential to build developing
country capacity on climate change, environment, biodiversity and green growth
through increased research, modelling and data analysis capacity in these areas.
The main risks involve the environmental impacts of construction/rehabilitation of
new centres. However, IDRC will manage construction/rehabilitation funds and
ensure that Environmental Impact Assessments will be undertaken as and when
required by its own environmental standards.
C. What are the costs and benefits of each feasible option?
47. The Critical Success Criteria (CrSC) for this intervention are as follows:
CrSC Description
Weighting (1-5)
1
High quality mathematical sciences education
provided to students from across SSA and with
a good gender balance.
5
2
Recipients expected to apply their skills to the
benefit of SSA.
5
3
Initiative is delivered in close partnership with
private sector sponsors and graduates are
provided with an education that is matched to
the SSA job market.
5
4
Thorough M&E is conducted to track students
after graduation, establishing a strong evidence
base for the returns to the programme.
3
5
Initiative maximises national capacity building
through partnerships and transfer of expertise
with public universities in host countries.
4
6
Value for money and sustainability.
5
13
Appraisal of Options
Option 1: Support the full AIMS-NEI proposal with up to £18.16m funding
48. This is the recommended option. AIMS-NEI is an established institution with
strong leadership and a track record of delivering high quality education in
mathematical sciences through its centre in South Africa. It is attracting high
quality applicants and is unable to meet demand from prospective students. At
full capacity, each AIMS centre will recruit 55 students per year.
49. The selection criteria for students applying to AIMS-NEI include (a) strong
academics; (b) demonstrable commitment to African development; and (c) broad
socio-economic mix and a target of 40% female intake within 5 years (AIMS has
50-50 gender equity as a longer term goal). Supporting AIMS-NEI to expand to a
network of 6 centres across Africa will enable it to reach out to and attract
prospective students from across the continent.
50. AIMS-NEI works in partnership with public universities and with host
governments (which provide 50% of the establishment costs and also the
operating costs for each centre from year 5). In AIMS-South Africa, for example,
the degrees are accredited by Stellenbosch, University of Western Cape and
University of Cape Town. Expanding AIMS-NEI to a network of 6 centres will help
create regional centres of excellence and provide a foundation for
standardisation and improved capacity across the continent.
51. The proposal also offers the opportunity for DFID to partner with and leverage
funding from private sector companies, providing the required match funding.
Furthermore, AIMS-NEI plans to establish business, employability and
entrepreneurship skills as a 5-10% component of its curriculum and to work with
private companies to secure internships and work opportunities for the students.
The educational outreach programmes will also play an important role in building
capacity in maths and science at the school level.
52. The recent evaluation of AIMS South Africa concluded that it, “has been very
effective in contributing towards the development of higher education and the
production of students who have proceeded to obtain higher academic
qualification and subsequent employment. This has contributed in increasing the
number of African men and women with research skills needed in all areas
(academia, public sector, civil society and the private sector) across Africa”.
53. Option 1 does, however, involve significant risks and these are detailed, along
with the planned mitigation measures, in the below table.
14
Risk Mitigation Table
Risk
Risk Mitigation
(i) Value for Money
AIMS is an innovative project and there is a
risk that the costs will outweigh the benefits.
However, the Business Case value for money
statement concludes that: (a) the break-even
level for private returns will be easily reached
by those AIMS graduates who go on to work
for international companies in SSA (and
potentially reached in aggregate for all the
graduates); and (b) much of the attraction of
the AIMS proposal rests on the expected social
benefits and it is not possible to define and
measure these quantitatively on an ex-ante
basis. But it is reasonable to assume that the
pool of AIMS graduates, although relatively
small in number, has potential for catalytic
effects on national development processes.
AIMS will undertake M&E and
annual alumni surveys, IDRC will
oversee results and DFID will retain
the right to withhold funding if
insufficient progress is made against
the logframe indicators. We will also
promote
cross-learning
and
comparative analysis across DFID
supported
higher
education
initiatives and will work with CSC
and AIMS-NEI to develop improved
metrics and more objective ways of
assessing the development impact
of scholarship schemes.
(ii) Quality
AIMS may be unable to replicate the quality it
has achieved in South Africa. Specifically: (a)
AIMS South Africa has relied on partnerships
with high quality local universities but these
are scarce outside South Africa; and (b) AIMS
is reliant on international academics teaching
pro bono. There is a risk it will be unable to
attract the 150 lecturers that will be needed
each year. This risk is more acute as the new
locations may be both less accessible and less
attractive than Cape Town.
(a) The new centres will partner with
the local universities that have the
strongest faculties and will help
build the capacity of these
universities; (b) AIMS has a database
of 450 lecturers who have offered to
teach pro bono. AIMS will work to
expand the database and IDRC will
monitor this; and (c) AIMS will seek
to ensure that the new locations
meet the same standards as AIMSSouth Africa.
(iii) Employability of the Graduates
It is not clear whether: (a) AIMS will be able to
attract sufficient applicants with the needed
academic potential, determination to stay in
SSA, commitment to development and gender
balance; (b) The AIMS graduates will be able
to secure the desired high value jobs in local
labour markets; and (c) Funding will be
available for the graduates to study for PhDs
after they complete the AIMS MSc (PhDs are
required for graduates to teach at tertiary
level, but few universities in SSA have the
reputation to award respected PhDs).
AIMS will (a) Continue to apply its
rigorous selection criteria which
balance
academic
potential,
commitment to Africa and gender
balance; (b) Explore options with
IDRC and CSC to improve post-AIMS
study paths for graduates where
appropriate; and (c) Seek private
sector partners that are willing to
offer internships to AIMS graduates,
as well as co-funding the overall
initiative.
15
(iv) Match Funding
AIMS may be unable to secure the needed
match funding from private companies,
universities, donors and host governments.
AIMS will establish a new
fundraising unit and DFID will
facilitate links to our existing private
sector partners and IDRC to other
donors. Without matched funding
being pledged or committed, DFID
will not release its own funds. AIMS
has held initial discussions with
potential funders and will develop a
full fundraising strategy if DFID
funding is approved.
(v) Sustainability
There is a risk that AIMS will be unable to
secure sufficient external/donor funding to
maintain the new centres after the DFID 5year funding. In the worst case scenario, the
centres would close after this period.
(a) AIMS will develop a sustainability
plan
for
securing
long-term
funding/sustainability; (b) Each new
centre will only be established when
IDRC is satisfied that sufficient
funding is in place and the host
government has committed to
provide 50% of the operating costs
from year 5 (NB: operating costs do
not include the students’ fees); and
(c) In future it may be possible for
AIMS to mimic the funding for
postgraduate studies in many
developed countries through lowcost student loans. These could be
provided in partnership with a
private financial institution.
Option 2: Support a scaled-down AIMS-NEI proposal with up to £12.22m funding
54. This scaled down option is essentially a sub-set of Option 1. DFID would provide
funding to support the consolidation of the two AIMS centres that are already
established and to establish two new centres in Ghana and Ethiopia (for which
IDRC has already committed part funding) but would not provide funding to
establish the two further centres in Benin and Tanzania.
55. The advantages relative to option 1 are that: (a) This option has reduced risks
around sustainability: there is a stronger likelihood of AIMS-NEI being able to
secure the future funding to maintain and run four centres than to maintain and
run six centres; and (b) A lower quotient of visiting volunteer lecturers would be
needed to service the four centres. This option therefore goes some way to
mitigating two of the risks identified above with regards Option 1.
56. However, this option has three disadvantages which outweigh these advantages:
(a) The total number of students that would be educated is reduced by one third;
(b) AIMS-NEI would have less regional reach and would only partially achieve its
16
goal of becoming a continent-wide network; and (c) Cost efficiencies are lost
such that the per-student costs are projected to be 7.7% higher.
Per-Student Programme Costs for the 4 and 6 centre options (AIMS data):
Category
Scholarship costs
Programme costs
Academic
Educational Outreach
6
4
Change in costs when modifying to
Centres Centres the 4 centre model
5,310
5,310
Costs remain the same
5,100
470
5,100
640
Costs remain the same
Fewer students lead to a higher cost per
student.
Centre Start-up
Network-wide
Programmes
Centre Operations
Capacity
Development Costs
Secretariat
Operations
Fundraising
1,030
1,750
1,030
2,500
5,450
5,450
Costs remain the same
Fewer students lead to a higher cost per
student.
Costs remain the same
1,120
1,720
450
630
Total
20,670
22,380
Fewer students lead to a higher cost per
student.
Fewer students lead to a higher cost per
student.
Cost per student (7.7% higher for 4 centres)
Note: ‘Centre Start-up’ and ‘Centre Operations’ cover the estimated operational costs of an AIMS centre.
Greater specificity is currently not possible as AIMS-NEI have not finalised decisions on whether each of the new
centres will be built or rented, and on land loaned to or owned by AIMS-NEI. For the purposes of these costs,
£2m has been allocated to the construction of each centre and, following standard accounting practices,
depreciated over 50 years, then divided between the numbers of students each centre will host each year. As a
result these costs will not fall and already account for future generations of students. They will differ if a centre
is rented (as the adopted accounting practice mimics rent by consuming the value of the building over time in a
stream of consistent payments), though by how much will depend on the (at present unknown) rental agreement.
Option 3: Do nothing
57. The appropriate consideration for DFID is the opportunity cost of supporting
AIMS-NEI and the alternative investments that are possible if support is not
provided. PSD has consulted the relevant country offices and has not found
other potential public or private partners within SSA that could provide a
comparable network of higher education centres that: are focussed on
mathematical sciences, offer proven high quality, are free for the students and
embed skills for employability within the curriculum. This is premised on the
assessment that existing public higher education institutions in SSA do not
presently provide the right environment for scaling up high quality postgraduate
studies – a shortcoming that needs to be addressed.
17
Comparison of options
58. In the table below, the three options have been scored against the critical
success criteria identified above (paragraph 45). We have determined, however,
that a direct comparison against a ‘Do Nothing’ Option 3 would add minimal value
as this option would score zero against most, if not all, of the Success Criteria.
We have therefore provided a comparison against an Option 3 of ‘Support to
Existing Higher Education’. The relatively low scores of this option reflect and
underscore the premise that existing public higher education institutions do not
presently provide the right environment for scaling up support.
Option 1:
Full Proposal
Option 2:
Scaled Down
Option 3:
Support to
Existing Higher
Education
Critical Success Criteria
(CrSC)
Weight
(1-5)
Score
Weighted
Score
Score
Weighted
Score
Score
Weighted
Score
1 High quality mathematical
sciences education provided
to students from across SSA
and with a good gender
balance.
5
5
25
4
20
2
10
2 Recipients expected to
apply their skills to the
benefit of SSA.
5
4
20
4
20
3
15
3 Initiative is delivered in
close partnership with
private sector sponsors and
graduates are provided with
an education that is
matched to the SSA job
market.
5
5
25
5
25
1
5
4 Thorough M&E is
conducted to track students
after graduation,
establishing a strong
evidence base for the
returns to the programme.
3
5
15
5
15
2
6
5 Initiative maximises
national capacity building
through partnerships and
transfer of expertise with
public universities in host
countries.
4
4
16
4
16
5
20
6 Value for money and
sustainability.
5
3
15
3
15
3
15
Totals
116
18
111
71
59. The rationale for the scorings against the Critical Success Criteria are as follows:
CrSC 1: High quality mathematical sciences education provided to
students from across SSA and with a good gender balance.
Options 1 and 2 score well on this criteria. This is because the new AIMS centres
are expected to replicate the high academic quality of AIMS South Africa (see
para 53 for the risk of this high quality not being achieved), will be focussed on
maths and science and will target 40% female intake within 5 years. The
outreach programmes also support this criteria by building maths and science
capacity in schools. Option 1 scores higher than Option 2 because the education
opportunity would be accessible more widely across SSA. For Option 3, support
could in principle be targeted to relevant faculties of public universities. However,
these are diverse and the strong quality concerns detailed in the Strategic Case
(see paras 8-9) serve to significantly weaken the score awarded to this option.
CrSC 2: Recipients expected to apply their skills to the benefit of SSA.
Options 1, 2 and 3 have similar scores on this criteria. This is because all the
options would support higher education within SSA – and would therefore be
expected to graduate young people who are more likely to remain in SSA
(compared to students who study abroad). Options 1 and 2 score one point
higher than Option 3 because AIMS proactively seeks to recruit students who
can demonstrate their commitment to African development.
CrSC 3: Initiative is delivered in close partnership with private sector
sponsors and graduates are provided with an education that is matched to
the SSA job market.
Options 1 and 2 score high and Option 3 scores low against this criteria. This is
because AIMS will be seeking private sector partners to match fund and support
this proposal. AIMS will also add business and employability skills to its
curriculum, work to secure internships for its students, and ensure that its
educational offering is effectively matched to national labour markets. Option 3,
conversely, scores low because of the documented mismatch between the
higher education being offered by public universities and the capabilities needed
in national job markets (see paras 23-24 of Strategic Case).
CrSC 4: Thorough M&E is conducted to track students after graduation,
establishing a strong evidence base for the returns to the programme.
Options 1 and 2 score high and Option 3 scores low against this criteria. AIMS
will make M&E and alumni tracking an integral part of its programme. This is not
widespread practice in public universities in SSA and there would be a strong
capacity challenge in making the needed change.
CrSC 5: Initiative maximises national capacity building through
partnerships and transfer of expertise with public universities in host
countries.
All the options score high against this criteria. For Options 1 and 2, the new AIMS
centres will partner with and strengthen public universities and will also seek to
become regional centres of excellence that provide a foundation for
standardisation and increased capacity. Option 3 has the top score for this
19
criteria as it would constitute direct support to building capacity and expertise
within public universities.
CrSC 6: Value for money and sustainability.
All the options have been given a middle score against this criteria. Options 1
and 2 are expected to offer good value for money but the potential risks around
sustainability are significant and serve to lower the overall scores (see para 53
for VfM and sustainability risks). Option 1 scores marginally higher on VfM but
lower on sustainability as compared to Option 2. Option 3 scores low on value
for money – given the strong concerns around quality – and high on
sustainability, leading to a middle score in aggregate.
60. From the above table and analysis, it is concluded that Option 1 obtains the
highest marks overall and is the favoured option. However, the risks are
significant and can only be mitigated to a limited degree. This needs to be given
due consideration in the approval process for this Business Case. Furthermore,
DFID funding will be conditional on M&E and tracking of AIMS-NEI alumni to
build a detailed evidence base of achievements and to inform programme
assessment and future project design.
20
D. What measures can be used to assess Value for Money?
Breakeven Analysis
61. An assessment of the net present value of the full social benefits that will be
generated by AIMS-NEI is not feasible. That is, where social benefits refers to
the benefits which exceed those remunerated in a private price, due to some
market failure such as missing markets. As is common with educational policies,
especially those focused on capacity building, benefits rely on these positive
externalities that aggregate over time. Such effects are notoriously difficult to
value, especially in an environment such as SSA that suffers from a very poor
evidence base from which to extrapolate indicative measures.
62. In this context, the most robust method of assessment is to conduct a breakeven
analysis and establish what increase in productive capabilities each graduate
would be required to attain in order to match the expense of their education.
Drawing on human capital theory, where education raises the productive capacity
of labour as reflected in higher wages, the appropriate increase to consider is
between the wages of an individual educated to a graduate level – because
AIMS-NEI applicants are already high calibre graduates – and those received by
an individual educated to a postgraduate level. In the final analysis, these
productivity gains would have further spill over effects of their own.
63. This analysis has been conducted under the assumption that an AIMS-NEI
graduate begins work immediately upon graduation, and that these productivity
gains last for 30 years. It is also possible that the higher productive capabilities
are complemented by experience over time, which would further increase the
benefits, but we do not explicitly model this here.
64. The costs of educating an individual are not discounted. This is because each
student studies a one year Masters programme. The cost breakdown presented
above is based upon standard accounting practices of matching revenue
expenditure, such as the costs of operating the centres through the 5 year period
of DFID funding, to the students educated during that period. The uncertainty
over the sustainability of the centres means that, in a worst case scenario, there
are no future cohorts against which funding can be matched.
65. The annual monetised productivity increase has been discounted at 10%, which
is a standard level for programme assessment in developing countries. It is
higher than the 3.5% used by HMT for programmes in the UK due to greater
uncertainty and the corresponding need for higher compensation to invest in
these countries. The requirements are presented below.
Per year breakeven requirements:
6
4
Centres Centres
2,195
2,375
Directly to work
66. Required wage premiums are 8% higher, on average, in Option 2 (4 centres)
compared to Option 1 (6 centres). These requirements may be high in SSA for a
21
single year’s additional education and we must now consider how feasible these
returns are, beginning with the career paths of current AIMS-NEI graduates.
67. Data from AIMS South Africa reveals the following career paths for its alumni:
For 2003 - 2006 PGDip Graduates from South Africa
AIMS to Work* Transition
Directly to Work
Research Master's to Employment
PhD to Employment
Master's + PhD to Employment
Percentage
15.9
37.7
13
33.3
(* All of the above figures include employment in the academic sector)
68. However, during this period AIMS only offered a postgraduate diploma, whereas
it is now progressing to offering masters qualifications. As a result the following
career paths are forecast:
Projection for Masters graduates
AIMS to Work* Transition
Directly to Work
Research Master's to Employment
PhD to Employment
Master's + PhD to Employment
Percentage
36
18
23
23
(* All of the above figures include employment in the academic sector)
69. There is very limited data available on the rates of return to different levels of
education in SSA. Returns in OECD, Asia11 or even South Africa are difficult to
transfer to the rest of SSA due to the considerable differences in the levels of
development and the consequent differences in labour market demand.
70. Given the high level of technical skills imparted by AIMS, they are likely to either
pursue careers in tertiary education or highly productive / international sectors.
Salary survey data obtained from the World Bank indicates the following salaries
for the proposed AIMS-NEI countries for large international employers (where GE
is Analyst, GF is Junior Professional and GG is Senior Professional / mid-level
management). These figures are suggestive of the likely productivity increases:
For more developed economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, the
Philippines and China.
11
22
Potential productivity increases
GE, £’s
GF, £’s
GG, £’s
Benin
24,005
32,752
44,564
Ethiopia
15,574
20,103
26,088
Ghana
22,230
28,710
44,695
Senegal
29,603
43,813
67,473
South Africa
41,368
58,563
82,027
Tanzania
19,012
26,671
37,796
71. It is assumed that the AIMS graduates would enter at the GE level and it is
important to note that these salaries apply only to those graduates who go to
work in the private sector for multinationals, foreign Governments or International
NGOs. Domestic salaries, especially in the public sector, are likely to be
considerably lower. Given that these salaries comfortably exceed the breakeven
requirements, however, the excess can be carried over to other individuals, since
for expenditure on the cohort to breakeven it is necessary that the salary be
£10,568 - £11,378 on average. It is therefore reasonable to assume that if a
significant proportion of the students enter these higher wage return sectors then
the aggregate private returns will be greater than the costs.
72. Whilst the breakeven analysis in this economic appraisal focuses on private
returns, the reasons for this are pragmatic, relating to data availability. The
analysis is intended to indicate whether the expectation that the programme – at
worst – breaks even is realistic. If one were to conclude that the required
productivity increases are high and the scope for graduates to attain them are too
limited, the value of social returns, discussed below, must be taken into account
and would need to match the shortfall of private returns in order to breakeven.
73. A focus on private returns carries a further inference. Assuming that wages are
paid to match the marginal productivity of labour, higher wages reflect higher
productivity and an improvement in economic activity, bringing additional social
benefits. The outreach programme to primary and secondary schools will involve
teacher training workshops, public lectures, radio podcasts and social networking
campaigns to raise awareness of the importance of maths and science among
school students and to help teachers become more effective. Standards of
teaching and classroom resources for these subjects should improve as a result.
These effects, in turn, should contribute to higher levels of human capital and
future productivity gains.
74. On a broader level, we can expect the impact of the additional students who
graduate from AIMS within the five year funding period to be catalytic. Each
graduate is anticipated to have a multiplier effect due to the range of wider social
23
benefits attributable to their career path, which are not captured and remunerated
by the market price for their human capital – the wage they receive. The AIMS
centres, once established, should also continue to graduate further students after
the DFID funding period comes to an end and this should be seen as a further
dividend on DFID’s initial investment in helping establish the centres. AIMS-NEI
will also facilitate a network of highly skilled graduates and professionals across
the continent and provide regional centres of excellence and resources for local
universities.
E. Summary Value for Money Statement for the preferred option
75. This Appraisal has considered the proposal presented to DFID to provide
£18.16m of matched funding over a five year period. A second Option to provide
up to £12.22m funding was also considered. Both figures include a 10% fee for
IDRC to undertake external management and oversight (£1.65m and £1.11m
respectively).
76. The analysis has been clear that the impacts of this intervention on poverty
reduction are medium to long-term and indirect in nature. The programme aims
to respond to the overwhelming need to increase the human capital available for
human development and economic growth within SSA and the impacts are
extremely difficult to anticipate and assess. Whilst education interventions are
common and methodologies for estimating social benefits exist, they commonly
focus on primary and secondary levels of education. For these levels of
education, research has previously suggested that social returns are very large
relative to the private returns the recipient individuals subsequently enjoy. This
has not been the case for higher levels of education, leading to the adoption of a
private financing model through loans in many OECD countries.
77. Data relating to higher education within SSA are rare. Broad evidence suggests
that there is labour market demand for highly skilled workers within SSA, which
has suffered from a ‘brain drain’ in recent decades. The logic of the intervention
suggests that, by providing higher education in SSA, graduates will be retained,
providing much needed skills to the public and private labour markets, as well as
building capacity within the education and research sectors. The risk remains,
however, that graduates from AIMS retain an option to leave the continent, as
25% of AIMS-South Africa graduates have done (though it is unclear how many
of these are studying abroad on a temporary basis).
78. A number of risks exist with Option 1, chiefly relating to the sustainability of
financing, uncertainties over future costs – given that decisions over centre
construction have not yet been finalised in a number of cases – and the ability of
AIMS-NEI to attract sufficient numbers of visiting voluntary professors to keep
tuition costs low. There is potential scope to mitigate these risks in the future, for
example through a new programme to provide a student loan model, securing
study paths and conditionality of lending to retain graduates.
79. Given the difficulties in assessing the hypothesised stream of potential social
benefits, the Options were appraised using breakeven analysis of the per student
costs. This presented the level of productivity improvements (measured through
24
wage increases), which would be required for the Options to break even,
assuming a 30 year working life and using a 10% discount rate. Data relating to
the
salaries
paid
to
locally
employed
staff
by
international
companies/organisations in the focus countries suggest that the break-even level
will be easily reached by those individuals who go to work in this sector – and
potentially in aggregate for all the AIMS students. The education that AIMS
provides will also be a powerful signal of suitability for these kinds of employment
opportunities and should increase the students’ probability of progressing to
these career paths.
80. Overall, however, much of the attraction of the AIMS proposal rests on the
expected social benefits. The beneficiaries of these include national universities,
through the catalytic effect of the establishment of regional centres of excellence,
and secondary schools through the outreach programmes. Supply constraints of
quality teachers in the tertiary sector will be partially alleviated if a considerable
number of graduates go on to PhDs and academic careers. Improvements in the
standards of human capital available for private and public sector employment
will generate further benefits. It is not possible to define and measure these
expected social benefits on an ex-ante basis quantitatively but it is reasonable to
assume that the pool of AIMS graduates, although relatively small in number, has
potential for catalytic effects on national development processes.
25
Commercial Case
Direct procurement
A. Clearly state the procurement/commercial requirements for intervention
81. DFID is not carrying out direct procurement for this intervention. See indirect
procurement section below.
B. How does the intervention design use competition to drive commercial
advantage for DFID?
82. N/A
C. How do we expect the market place will respond to this opportunity?
83. N/A
D. What are the key cost elements that affect overall price? How is value
added and how will we measure and improve this?
84. N/A
E. What is the intended Procurement Process to support contract award?
85. N/A
F. How will contract & supplier performance be managed through the life of
the intervention?
86. N/A
26
Indirect procurement
A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of arrangement the right one for this
intervention, with this development partner?
87. DFID support of up to £18.16m on a match funding basis.
88. Three options were considered for programme delivery:
Option 1: Support the full AIMS proposal with up to £18.16m funding.
Option 2: Support a scaled down version with up to £12.22m funding.
Option 3: Do nothing.
89. Following analysis against the Critical Success Criteria, we concluded that
Option 1 is the recommended approach. We assessed that open competition to
deliver this work would not be the right approach because AIMS-NEI is a unique
(and not for profit) organisation that approached DFID for sponsorship. A tender
to deliver this programme could result in increased cost to DFID and would cause
significant delays to enable other organisations to compete on a level playing
field. This would impact on programme delivery and achievement of results, and
could impact on AIMS-NEI’s momentum and other funders’ decision to provide
funding.
90. Given the potential risks in supporting the establishment of new AIMS centres –
which may initially have limited management capacity – we will channel our funds
through IDRC (a Canadian Crown corporation). This will leverage IDRC’s
knowledge of and relationship with AIMS, align donor contributions and increase
protection against fraud and corruption. IDRC is already managing Canada’s
contribution and is working closely with AIMS-NEI to monitor and improve its
procurement and financial systems and results. We do not feel tendering the
management of DFID’s contribution would be the right approach in this instance,
given the risk of setting up dual systems to IDRC and additional burden on AIMSNEI. IDRC has agreed to provide a number of additional services to DFID (ref
paragraph 133); will provide 50% of a Programme Manager, and will contribute
an additional CAD$2m if AIMS-NEI secures DFID funding. DFID’s agreement
with IDRC will be through a memorandum of understanding. The terms of the
management arrangement will be detailed in an annex to the memorandum of
understanding along with key performance indicators.
91. DFID support to AIMS-NEI will involve indirect procurement for construction /
rehabilitation of building facilities and start-up of the new centres, scholarship
costs and operation costs (salaries, rent, travel and subsistence and capital
equipment). Procurement will be carried out at all levels of the AIMS-NEI
network. However, the majority of expenditure will be carried out at the level of
the individual centres (for operating, scholarship and capital costs).
92. AIMS-NEI has a procurement manual which provides good practice guidance to
the centres. During the inception phase of this programme, the manual will be
updated and procurement at all levels of the network will be undertaken in line
with best practices benchmarked against the following international NGOs:
27
Oxfam GB, International Rescue Committee, American Refugee Committee and
the Danish Refugee Council.
Value for money through procurement
93. AIMS-NEI will work to ensure that all procurement is undertaken in line with
international best practice, with emphasis on purchasing locally sourced products
and strengthening local procurement capability. An independent assessment of
AIMS-NEI’s procurement processes has not yet been undertaken. However, an
evaluation was carried out at a programmatic level using OECD criteria. A
financial review of AIMS-NEI will be carried out by IDRC, during 2012/13, as part
of its overall mid-term review of its own support to AIMS-NEI.
94. It is important to recognise that AIMS-NEI has limited procurement experience
and capacity – and will be working in new countries. This is one of the reasons it
is important for DFID to work through IDRC. IDRC has worked closely with
AIMS-NEI to develop its systems and manuals and continues to provide on-going
advice. IDRC does this by using the knowledge of its own regional office staff
and by carrying out regular site visits to ensure progress and compliance. IDRC
will continue to provide this support and assurance for all of the new DFIDfunded centres.
95. IDRC is working with AIMS-NEI to ensure that its procurement manual is updated
and the processes are duly implemented. AIMS-NEI has contracted an
independent consultant to develop its procurement (finance and administration)
manual. We have shared DFID’s third party questionnaire with the consultant and
will meet with him/her to explain the levels of assurance that DFID will require in
the systems and processes. Staff training will be key to ensure effective
implementation. IDRC and AIMS-NEI have confirmed they will ensure that there
will be no duplication of charges for procurement services.
96. Procurement undertaken by AIMS-NEI will be within two main categories:
97. A) Goods and services. Goods will be subject to normal competitive processes.
AIMS will use locally sourced products where possible to reduce carbon footprint
and increase local capability. Higher value and complex procurement may be
subject to regional or international competition (in line with thresholds set in the
AIMS manual and if/where there is limited local/national market capacity).
98. B) Construction / Rehabilitation. Tender processes will be carried out
according to international and national best practices. AIMS has not carried out
any construction work to date, but will look to procure a single international
architecture firm to work across the network if/as construction is required. This
will drive cost-efficiency and quality through standardisation of the basic building
elements. National architects will also be contracted in each country to ensure
the designs meet local architecture and building norms under legal jurisdiction.
Given that construction projects have a tendency for cost over-runs, AIMS will
put in place a robust contract, key performance indicators (KPI's) and milestone
payments to ensure delivery on time and to budget. DFID, working through
IDRC, will pay close attention to performance against this and other procurement
28
related issues through the standard monitoring and reporting functions. (see
Finance and Management Sections).
99. Procurement will be carried out in line with the manual and will be sequenced to
fit with AIMS-NEI’s timetable to establish and manage new centres. The major
cost drivers of the proposed intervention are listed below (paras 103-105). These
will be monitored throughout the programme by the Secretariat to identify
opportunities for cost-saving and improving the procurement process.
100. AIMS-NEI centres will consolidate buying and take advantage of economies
of scale by procuring collaboratively for services where possible. This is likely to
be too difficult for procuring goods (with some possible exceptions), given the
need to secure match funding. AIMS-NEI is exploring a number of planned areas
for collaborative procurement. However, it may transpire that some of these are
better done on a country by country basis:
 Construction/Rehabilitation: AIMS-NEI plans to work with one international
architectural firm to develop a standard construction model – which could be
adjusted in varying degrees to adapt to each individual location. The architects
will work with local firms to adapt the model to specific country requirements.
 Services that include training and capacity-building (e.g. M&E, gender equity
practices, curriculum development). The consultants undertaking these work
areas will be expected to develop cost-effective and network-wide training
schedules. Additionally, efforts will be made to train individuals within the
network as trainers, in order to decrease the need for consultants in the future.
 Airline agreements for all network travel needs. There may be some scope for
this; although it may prove difficult given the range of countries.
 IT supplies. There may be some scope for this; although backup, maintenance
and warranties may be better managed on a country by country basis.
101. Discounts for economies of scale will be difficult in many areas but
opportunities will be pursued as and when appropriate. More specific VfM
measurement, processes and indicators are currently being development by
AIMS in consultation with IDRC.
102. Procurement of goods above the £100K threshold is not envisaged in the
short term. However, when building construction / rehabilitation commences it is
expected that such events will occur. We have alerted AIMS to the potential use
of DFID procurement agents and have asked AIMS to check whether there are
other donor framework agreements they could also use. DFID will review this as
part of the grant discussions.
29
Cost Drivers
103. Cost drivers vary across the different phases of the project. At the centre
construction / rehabilitation stage the key items to be procured will be:
o Furniture (eg bedroom sets, library, computer room, dining room, offices etc.)
o IT equipment (eg computers and servers)
o Electricity generators
o Staff costs and salaries
o Vehicles
104. When the new centres enter the academic phase, the key items to be procured
will be:
o Staff salaries
o Food and accommodation costs for students, lecturers and tutors (noting that
food inflation is a significant problem in SSA).
o Flights for students, lecturers and tutors
o Medical insurance for students and tutors
o Stipends for students
o Facilities rental (if needed until a permanent facility is identified)
105. The cost drivers of the building construction / rehabilitation phase will include:
o Architectural fees
o Materials and labour costs
o Construction management costs
106. Land and building construction / rehabilitation would be expected to be significant
cost drivers. However, the Government of each host country is required to
donate a plot of land – and/or a building – in an accessible and environmentally
appropriate area. Written agreements will be signed with the Governments and
land transfer documents will be provided to ensure that these transfers are
sustainable irrespective of changes in the political landscape.
107. The AIMS-NEI Secretariat will play a central role in driving VfM. It will be
responsible for ensuring that centres are run at low cost whilst providing the high
quality of education and services required. AIMS-NEI is committed to a proactive
approach to efficiency savings and has committed in its grant agreement with
IDRC to keep Secretariat administration costs to a minimum. It should be noted,
however, that local capacity will have a bearing on this (ie in some contexts it
may be difficult to recruit staff with the appropriate skill sets from the local
recruitment markets).
108. AIMS will focus on total cost of ownership to achieve cost savings in the
purchasing and tendering process for equipment, vehicles and IT and will ensure
that spare parts and repairs will not lead to excessive on-going costs. Inflation
and foreign exchange fluctuations have been taken into account in developing
the budget for this programme.
30
Financial Case
A. What are the costs, how are they profiled and how will you ensure accurate
forecasting?
109. AIMS-NEI has requested £18,155,652 over 5 years from DFID, of which 10% will
be used to cover the costs of management and administration by the IDRC. The
AIMS-NEI total programme costs are £36,154,751. A detailed breakdown of
costs can be found at Annex 2.
110. The DFID funds will be provided by DFID’s Private Sector Department (PSD) and
will be disbursed through and managed by IDRC. The funds will be provided on
a match funding basis as and when AIMS secures commitments from other
donors. During the first 3 years, we envisage that DFID will provide higher levels
of cash contributions than the match funders to enable a more sustainable flow of
funds. Throughout all years, however, DFID will only disburse funding as and
when AIMS-NEI has received firm written commitments – from established and
credible private companies, universities and governments – of their intent to
match fund the outputs and objectives detailed in this Business Case. In view of
this, PSD will retain flexibility in its budget planning to respond to and match
AIMS-NEI’s fundraising efforts. This will create unpredictability for the PSD
budget but, with the maximum total expenditure at £18.16m, this is expected to
remain within a manageable range. The estimated timeline for the DFID
contributions is as follows:
Year (June to July)
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Total
Matching
Donors
1,454,642 885,484
2,089,216 1,668,129
4,618,195 3,268,490
6,025,744 6,224,002
3,967,855 5,952,994
18,155,652 17,999,099
DFID
Total
2,340,126
3,757,345
7,886,685
12,249,746
9,920,849
36,154,751
111. The amount budgeted for 2012/13, includes £486,000 of seed funding from DFID
on a non-matched basis. This upfront contribution will enable AIMS to support:
Activity
Cost in £ '000
Fundraising
Development and implementation of a fundraising strategy for the
network
154
Private Sector Partnerships and Skills Development
60
Resourcing of career development officers and a curriculum
consultant to broaden the curriculum and identify opportunities
31
within the private sector for internships and work placements.
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
Modification of M&E strategy and framework and delivery of a
comprehensive baseline evaluation and dissemination of data and
training to Secretariat and staff.
175
Programme Development
Hold a programme implementation planning meeting to bring
together centre and Secretariat stakeholders. This meeting will
agree detailed implementation plans and corresponding budgets.
65
Gender Mainstreaming
A gender consultant will be contracted to conduct a review, as a first
step towards developing a specific and targeted gender equity
strategy.
Total
32
486
112. Given that the remaining DFID funding will be on a match funding basis, it is
necessary for AIMS-NEI to prioritise which expenditures it would undertake as
first priority (ie if the match funding is only partially secured). AIMS-NEI has
prioritised the following activities (in priority order):
Priority 1: Development and implementation of private sector skills courses.
Priority 2: Fees/scholarships for the students.
Priority 3: Establishment of new centres.
Note: AIMS-NEI will approve the plans for construction/rehabilitation
and the opening date for each new centre only if IDRC is satisfied – at
its own discretion – that a reasonable level of funding has been
secured to ensure the pre-existing AIMS centres are sustainable. As a
minimum, IDRC will ensure that (a) AIMS has secured funding to cover
operating and academic costs for the new centre for at least 3 years;
(b) scholarship funding has been secured to cover student fees in all
existing centres and the new centre for at least 2 years; and (c) the
host government has provided a written commitment that it will
contribute 50% of the construction/purchase/rehabilitation costs and
that it will fund the centre’s operating costs on a phased-in basis (at
least 50% from year 5, noting that this does not include student fees).
113. Financial Forecasting: IDRC has well established financial management
mechanisms already in place for the Canadian contribution to AIMS-NEI. These
include 6 monthly assessments of actual expenditure and of planned expenditure
for the next 6 months. IDRC uses its local staff as well as its central staff in the
programme, finance and administration divisions to review this information to
ensure accurate forecasting and accountability.
32
114. DFID will use IDRC’s financial mechanisms to ensure accurate forecasting. In
addition AIMS-NEI will include an update on progress against objectives – linked
to cash flow and planning – as part of the AIMS-NEI Foundation UK board
meetings (this Board is responsible for monitoring expenditure). AIMS-NEI will
officially report on its planned and actual expenditures to DFID through IDRC. It
should be noted, however, that financial forecasts may slip, given that AIMS-NEI
will not be able to get centres up and running without match funding in place.
115. Should any issues arise, these can also be raised through the Donor Committee
which is to be established to provide donors with an overview of progress and an
opportunity to provide strategic guidance and advice to the AIMS-NEI Board of
Directors. The Donor Committee will meet annually.
116. Progress against outputs – linked to cash flow – will also be assessed during
DFID’s annual review process.
117. AIMS-NEI has contingency plans in place for different match funding outcomes
and it will not start work on a new centre until sufficient funding commitments and
land/buildings are secured (see above). If very limited matching funds are
secured by AIMS-NEI, DFID would need to work with AIMS-NEI to ensure
sustainability and vfm for the funds already invested.
33
B. How will it be funded: capital/programme/admin?
DFID funds:
Year (June
to July)
Building
Construction /
Rehabilitation
Operation
2012/13
0
1,454,642
2013/14
177,135
1,912,081
2014/15
1,546,688
3,071,507
2015/16
2,035,641
3,990,104
2016/17
643,422
3,324,433
Total
4,402,886
13,752,767
Figures include the 10% IDRC management fee
Total
1454642.2
2,089,216
4,618,195
6,025,745
3,967,855
18,155,653
118. DFID funding will be split between a projected £12m programme and £4m capital
costs, subject to match funding being secured. The final programme-capital ratio
will depend on the actual costs of building construction / rehabilitation in each
country.
Total match funding required (not including DFID funds):
Year
(June to
July)
Building
Match
Construction / Funding
Rehabilitation Required
Operation
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Total
0
201,290
1,988,748
4,064,025
1,169,859
7,423,922
2,207,886
885,484
3,366,126
1,627,871
5,478,101
2,685,822
7,637,926
4,010,559
8,390,276
5,368,064
27,080,315 14,577,800
0
40,258
582,668
2,213,442
584,930
3,421,298
Match
Funding
Required
Total Match
Funding
Required
885,484
1,668,129
3,268,490
6,224,001
5,952,994
17,999,098
C. How will funds be paid out?
119. DFID Funds will be disbursed, every 6 months in advance, through IDRC to the
AIMS-NEI Foundation UK. This Foundation is the designated Treasury for AIMSNEI and is governed by an International Board of Directors that is responsible for
strategic planning and decision making. The AIMS-NEI Secretariat will make
transfers to the individual AIMS centres in alignment with the budget and based
on previous expenditure and predicted cash flow. This is in line with IDRC’s
existing grant agreement with AIMS-NEI (see section E below for detailed
arrangements).
34
D. What is the assessment of financial risk and fraud?
120. IDRC carried out a full risk assessment of AIMS-NEI in 2010. The
assessment was undertaken by the Regional Controller and Head Office
Manager of Grant Administration, and covered financial and project
administration and operations. The risk assessment was made using IDRC’s
Institutional Risk Assessment Framework (IDRC has shared this with DFID).
Section E (below) details the financial management systems and mitigation
measures that IDRC has agreed with AIMS-NEI and which are based on the
outcomes of this risk assessment. In addition, IDRC carries out annual risk
assessments of AIMS-NEI that are supported by periodic visits and/or through
desk assessments by IDRC’s Financial Administration personnel.
E. How will expenditure be monitored, reported, and accounted for?
121. IDRC will be responsible for ensuring that expenditure of DFID funds will be
monitored, reported and accounted for.
122. IDRC has agreed with AIMS-NEI the following financial management systems
and mitigation measures that are based on its above risk assessment of AIMSNEI’s capability and financial and technical performance:

Each AIMS centre is required to put in place financial and administrative
procedures that are acceptable to IDRC (as set out in AIMS-NEI’s finance
and administration manual which was drawn up in collaboration with
IDRC). Each AIMS centre is also required to periodically review its
procedures and progress with IDRC.

Each AIMS centre is required to provide to IDRC, or its designated
auditor(s), reasonable access to all programme records (excluding
information regarding individual subjects of research), including relevant
financial records, to permit IDRC to verify compliance with the terms and
conditions of the agreement.

Every 6 months AIMS-NEI submits to IDRC its progress and certified
financial reports covering the previous 6 months. These submissions also
include forward looking information on activities and cash flow forecasts
for the upcoming 6 months.

The above reports are reviewed by IDRC’s Director of Science and
Innovation and by IDRC staff in its Grant Administration Division. Progress
is assessed against AIMS-NEI’s objectives. Financial analysis is also
undertaken by 2 different individuals in IDRC’s Headquarters in Ottawa –
the Grant Administrator and the Grant Administration Officer. Only when
full financial and technical certification has been given by IDRC is the next
tranche of funds released. (Financial certification is given at different
levels, depending on the size of the payments. Larger payments must be
authorised by the Regional Controller or Grant Administration Managers).

Periodic site visits are carried out by IDRC to support its assessments.
35

Every 12 months AIMS-NEI submits externally audited accounts for review
by IDRC’s Grant Administration Managers.

An independent mid-term review of the Government of Canada’s support
will be undertaken in 2012/13.

IDRC may undertake a full independent audit of the programme.

IDRC’s risk management and internal audit team will also undertake an
audit of AIMS-NEI in the year 2013-14.
123. These arrangements are detailed in the existing grant agreement between AIMSNEI and IDRC.
124. IDRC will share the 6 monthly financial and progress reports with DFID, along
with the externally audited accounts. IDRC will also be responsible for informing
DFID about problems, delays and risks that it identifies with regards programme
implementation.
AIMS-NEI management of funds
125. AIMS-NEI expenditure is monitored by the AIMS-NEI Foundation UK Board with
the Secretariat acting as its agent. During the initial development year and the
first year of academic operations, each new centre will submit monthly
expenditure reports to the Secretariat and the Secretariat will undertake internal
on-site reviews on a quarterly basis. After this period, the Secretariat will carry
out an annual mid-year review for all centres.
126. AIMS-NEI’s fiscal year runs from 1 July to 30 June, with the annual budgeting
process taking place from March to May. The Secretariat submits a consolidated
network budget to the Board for review and approval. Capital budgets will be
prepared against project execution milestones, and external contracts will be
similarly structured against key deliverables.
127. As referenced above, the Secretariat will submit consolidated reports to IDRC on
a six monthly basis and certified expenditure statements and externally audited
accounts on an annual basis.
128. Further details on AIMS governance is provided in paragraph 134 below and in
Figure 2 of the Management Case.
129. The AIMS-NEI Secretariat has developed a standardised finance and
administration manual for use by the individual AIMS centres and to standardise
operations across the network. IDRC has provided significant support to this
process. The guidance in the manual will be implemented at all new AIMS
centres (with modifications where necessary to meet local laws) as a condition of
funding being disbursed. IDRC will also provide guidance to AIMS-NEI and carry
out field visits to ensure that the finance and administration requirements are
36
implemented. Funds will be retained in internationally recognised banks and
double signatories will be required to access the bank accounts.
130. The finance and administration manual governs all financial transactions and
value for money principles are incorporated in to all network systems, policies
and procedures. For future centres the manual is being modified (by an
independent consultant) to ensure best practice, benchmarked against
International NGOs.
37
Management Case
A. What are the Management Arrangements for implementing the intervention?
131. DFID will pay IDRC 10% of its total £18.16m contribution to AIMS-NEI to manage
its contribution and ensure effective implementation. This 10% management fee
will only be payable to the extent that AIMS-NEI secures the needed match
funding and the DFID funds are disbursed (note: with the exception of the initial
£486K seed payment that is on a non-matched basis).
132. IDRC has a well-established relationship with AIMS-NEI and is the manager of
the Canadian Government’s $20m contribution to AIMS-NEI. It has well
established management systems in place and has provided significant support
and guidance to AIMS-NEI on its business and implementation plan, operational
manual, finance manual, monitoring and evaluation framework, logical
framework analysis and governance arrangements for the AIMS-NEI board.
133. The following are the management arrangements that have been agreed to
ensure effective oversight and implementation of this programme:

Donor Committee (currently being set up) to provide strategic advice and
guidance to the AIMS-NEI Board concerning programme implementation.
This committee will also contribute to increasing harmonisation whilst
mitigating the risk of duplication of resources for the programme. The
Committee will meet annually.

AIMS-NEI (registered international charitable foundation in the UK) is
governed by an International Board of Directors responsible for strategic
planning and decision-making. The Board is constituted of senior private
sector and academic representatives. (See Figure 1 for legal status of the
AIMS structures).

The AIMS-NEI Board has established a Secretariat (see Figure 2), led by
an Executive Director, to support the development and management of
the AIMS centres. The Secretariat: provides support to centres in
academic and operational programme policy and delivery; develops
strategic African and international partnerships; and provides strategic
communications, educational outreach and alumni coordination. The
Secretariat will provide detailed consolidated reports to IDRC on a six
monthly basis which will detail progress against outputs, indicators and
milestones along with certified expenditure statements. AIMS-NEI will
also provide IDRC with its externally audited accounts on an annual
basis. (Referenced above – Section E Finance Case). The AIMS-NEI
Board will monitor progress and, along with IDRC, will need to approve
the commencement of work on each new centre.

The AIMS-NEI Foundation (UK) is the Treasury for AIMS-NEI. AIMS-NEI
(UK) retains ownership of the intellectual property of AIMS-NEI and, on
the recommendation of the Executive Director and approval of the Board,
38
will licence the use of the AIMS and AIMS-NEI trademarks to each AIMS
centre.

The governance arrangements of AIMS-NEI combine local ownership of
individual AIMS centres with the benefits of a coordinated network. Legal
contracts will be signed between AIMS-NEI and the individual centres to
clarify the obligations of each party. Each AIMS centre will also have its
own governance structure, including a Board of Trustees formed of
national and international academics, leaders of private sector
organisations and other supporting partner organisations who will appoint
a Director. This governance model aims to maximise local accountability
while also ensuring adequate oversight by the Secretariat and Board
members.

The Director of each AIMS centre has overall accountability for financial
management, delivery and implementation and will report to the Board of
Trustees. The Chief Operating Officer will oversee the operations of the
centre and manage the finance and administration department, reporting
to the centre director

There will be two AIMS-NEI representatives on the Board of Trustees of
each AIMS centre. These representatives (one with an academic
background and one with a non-academic background) will represent the
interests of AIMS-NEI and are expected to constitute about 25% of the
Board of each centre. It is expected that the Board of each centre will
appoint two subcommittees to oversee the academics and operations of
the centre in more detail.
Figure 1: Legal status of the existing AIMS structures:
Institution
Legal status
AIMS-NEI
A charity registered in the United Kingdom.
AIMS-South Africa
A charitable trust registered in South Africa.
AIMS-Senegal
An institute registered in Senegal. Diplomatic status
expected to be conferred in 2012.
AIMS-Ghana
A charity registered in Ghana.
AIMS-Ethiopia
Not yet registered.
39
Figure 2: AIMS-NEI Secretariat Structure

It is an AIMS-NEI priority to strengthen its own capacity over the next 5 years.
AIMS-NEI has developed an Organisational Development Plan for 20122016. This outlines the Secretariat’s corporate fundamentals, its strategic
goals for 2012-2016, an organisational growth and capacity strengthening
plan, and its top priorities for 2012.

The plans for the future structure of the Secretariat are outlined in Annex 8 of
the full AIMS-NEI proposal (Annex 1 of this Business Case).
40
Figure 3: AIMS-NEI Network Governance Model
DFID Management
134. The Health and Education Team within DFID’s Private Sector Department will be
responsible, in liaison with DFID’s Human Development Department on AIMSNEI, for engaging in strategic decision making and ensuring corporate
compliance. We expect this to require approximately 5% of one A band member
of staff’s time to: coordinate with IDRC and AIMS-NEI and stay informed on
progress, undertake project scoring and annual reviews, and attend the Donor
Committee Meetings as required. Additional time may also be required to
respond to PQs and Ministerial Correspondence, subject to level of interest.
135. Management of the DFID funds will be outsourced to IDRC. This decision has
been taken following an assessment of the available options. IDRC is a wellestablished partner of DFID and we are already working together on The Global
Adaption Research Programme (RED) and the Think Tank Initiative (DFID
India). We are confident that the due diligence systems that are already in place
for the Government of Canada’s support to AIMS-NEI, and which will now be
strengthened, will provide increased protection for UK funds and will ensure:






Delivery of results.
Complementarity and alignment of donor contributions.
Effective research and learning;
Increased protection against fraud and corruption; including robust
financial assurance. This is a priority given the risks around supporting
new entities that have limited financial records and capacity.
Progress against objectives through regular communication with AIMS
and provision of advice to address challenges identified through 6 monthly
progress reports, and as situations arise.
Collection of baseline data.
41



Management of evaluation, including robust evaluation of 6 monthly
reports against IDRC’s M&E objectives and ensuring an external
evaluation and audit at the Mid Term Review.
Communication of DFID support as part of its communication strategy.
Data for input to correspondence and PQs.
B. What are the risks and how these will be managed?
136. The significant risks and mitigation measures are as follows:
-
Value for Money – AIMS is an innovative project and there is a risk that the
costs will outweigh the benefits. However, the Business Case value for
money statement concludes that: (a) the break-even level for private returns
will be easily reached by those AIMS graduates who go on to work for
international companies in SSA (and potentially reached in aggregate for all
the graduates); and (b) much of the attraction of the AIMS proposal rests on
the expected social benefits and it is not possible to define and measure
these quantitatively on an ex-ante basis. But it is reasonable to assume that
the pool of AIMS graduates, although relatively small in number, has potential
for catalytic effects on national development processes. Mitigation: AIMS will
undertake M&E and annual alumni surveys, IDRC will oversee results and
DFID will retain the right to withhold funding if insufficient progress is made
against the logframe indicators. We will also promote cross-learning and
comparative analysis across DFID supported higher education initiatives and
will work with CSC and AIMS-NEI to develop improved metrics and more
objective ways of assessing the development impact of scholarship schemes.
Quality – AIMS may be unable to replicate the quality it has achieved in
South Africa. Specifically: (a) AIMS South Africa has relied on partnerships
with high quality local universities but these are scarce outside South Africa;
and (b) AIMS is reliant on international academics teaching pro bono. There is
a risk it will be unable to attract the 150 lecturers that will be needed each
year. This risk is more acute as the new locations may be both less
accessible and less attractive than Cape Town. Mitigation: (a) The new
centres will partner with the local universities that have the strongest faculties
and will help build the capacity of these universities; (b) AIMS has a database
of 450 lecturers who have offered to teach pro bono. AIMS will work to
expand the database and IDRC will monitor this; and (c) AIMS will seek to
ensure that the new locations meet the same standards as AIMS-South
Africa.
In addition, the AIMS-NEI Secretariat is putting in place robust structures and
systems for overseeing the individual centres. Underperformance by an
individual AIMS centre will be handled, in the first instance, by the AIMS-NEI
Secretariat with support from its Board. The Secretariat will also report to the
Donor Committee and DFID will retain the right to stop its funding for AIMSNEI at any stage.
-
Employability of the Graduates - It is not clear whether: (a) AIMS will be
able to attract sufficient applicants with the needed academic potential,
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determination to stay in SSA, commitment to development and gender
balance; (b) The AIMS graduates will be able to secure the desired high value
jobs in local labour markets; and (c) Funding will be available for the
graduates to study for PhDs after they complete the AIMS MSc (PhDs are
required for graduates to teach at tertiary level, but few universities in SSA
have the reputation to award respected PhDs). Mitigation: AIMS will (a)
Continue to apply its rigorous selection criteria which balance academic
potential, commitment to Africa and gender balance; (b) Explore options with
IDRC and CSC to improve post-AIMS study paths for graduates where
appropriate; and (c) Seek private sector partners that are willing to offer
internships to AIMS graduates, as well as co-funding the overall initiative.
-
Match Funding: AIMS may be unable to secure the needed match funding
from private companies, universities, donors and host governments.
Mitigation: AIMS will establish a new fundraising unit and DFID will facilitate
links to our existing private sector partners and IDRC to other donors.
Without matched funding being pledged or committed, DFID will not release
its own funds. AIMS has held initial discussions with potential funders and will
develop a full fundraising strategy if DFID funding is approved.
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Sustainability: There is a risk that AIMS will be unable to secure sufficient
external/donor funding to maintain the new centres after the DFID 5-year
funding. In the worst case scenario, the centres would close after this period.
Mitigation: (a) AIMS will develop a sustainability plan for securing long-term
funding/sustainability; (b) Each new centre will only be established when
IDRC is satisfied that sufficient funding is in place and the host government
has committed to provide 50% of the operating costs from year 5 (NB:
operating costs do not include the students’ fees); and (c) In future it may be
possible for AIMS to mimic the funding for postgraduate studies in many
developed countries through low-cost student loans. These could be
provided in partnership with a private sector financial institution.
.
If very limited matching funds are secured by AIMS-NEI, DFID would need to
work with AIMS-NEI to ensure sustainability and vfm for funds already
invested. The risks around sustainability should not be understated and
cannot be eliminated. However, DFID should be reassured that AIMS-NEI
has established relationships with its existing donors including the IDRC and
that it is making a strong effort to mitigate this risk and establish a sustainable
fundraising plan to secure its own long term future. AIMS-NEI will also
establish a fundraising unit (£950,000 over 5 years) focused on securing
government, private, multilateral and academic funding sources for the future.
C. What conditions apply (for financial aid only)?
137. Section is not applicable to this Business Case.
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D. How will progress and results be monitored, measured and evaluated?
138. IDRC has an established monitoring and evaluation system which will be used to
monitor, measure and evaluate results. Under IDRC’s present agreement with
AIMS-NEI, IDRC requires written reports every six months detailing AIMS-NEI’s
progress against each of the following objectives:





Supporting Existing AIMS-NEI Centres;
Establishing New AIMS-NEI Centres;
Developing and Implementing a Monitoring and Evaluation Plan;
Developing a Secretariat; and
Developing Shared Services Across the Network.
139. Each of the above objectives has been further specified by up to eight indicators
that measure its performance towards completion.
140. AIMS-NEI is committed to high standards of evidence based results and has
allocated approximately 3% of its programme budget for measurements, metrics and
learning. The Secretariat is in the process of appointing a Monitoring, Evaluation and
Learning (MEL) Manager. The DFID programme will align with and enhance the
existing M&E plan that has been agreed with IDRC, with all components related to
both programmes to be tracked and reported on to both IDRC and DFID.
141. AIMS-NEI has already developed its M&E Framework to provide evidence on
impact and to ensure action on lessons learned. Baseline data will be collected in
the first year of the programme. The M&E will use indicators including the number of
AIMS alumni engaged in African development priority areas; the number of AIMS
graduates employed either directly after AIMS or after further educational
qualifications; the number and nature of partnerships and initiatives which influence
policy at country and pan-African level; and the number of AIMS applications
received annually, disaggregated by gender, geographical region and socioeconomic status.
142. A comprehensive alumni tracking platform – the Programme Information
Management System (PIMS) – is in early stage development under the existing
agreement between AIMS-NEI and IDRC. The platform will build on the current
database of information that has been collected since 2003. The purpose of the
platform will be to track all information relevant to each student’s progress from initial
application, through the educational process, and to post-AIMS careers.
143. AIMS-NEI also reports to IDRC on Management and Operations, Challenges,
Risks and Mitigation, and Focus Areas for the coming period. IDRC then reviews
each progress report carefully to assess AIMS performance against its objectives
and performance indicators. It then provides written comments, seeking revisions,
and in some cases, improvement, before it agrees to release AIMS-NEI’s next
payment. IDRC will only disburse further payments to AIMS-NEI if satisfied that the
project is advancing satisfactorily.
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144.
In addition to monitoring the formal six-month progress reports, IDRC
assesses progress and provides strategic advice to AIMS-NEI through regular email
communication, teleconferences, and face-to-face meetings. This is supplemented
by additional monitoring and communication by IDRC staff based in Africa.
Managing mid-term reviews and evaluation in relation to progress against targets
and risk management.
145. AIMS-NEI is collecting data for ongoing progress towards achievement of
results, outcomes, outputs, and indicators. Additionally, an independent External
Evaluator will be hired to conduct the Mid-Term and End-of-Project evaluations. The
External Evaluator will provide both AIMS-NEI and IDRC with independent and
objective advice on the progress of the project against targets, which will help with
mid-course corrections.
146. The DFID funding will support the inclusion of an additional level of review by an
independent consultant that will review financial aspects related to construction.
147. A mid-term review of the DFID funding will be carried out after 2.5 years of
implementation and a final outcome evaluation at the end of the DFID programme in
order to report on achievements, draw lessons and inform the development of future
programmes. In addition, AIMS-NEI will contract an external consultant to undertake
a mid-term review, in 2012/13, of the Government of Canada’s support. To the
extent possible, this will include a review of the DFID financed activities.
148. The final evaluation will take place at the end of the fifth (final) year of
implementation and will answer questions on programme effectiveness. An
independent external evaluation team will be contracted. AIMS-NEI has agreed to
use DFID’s good practice guidance on governance arrangements for independent
evaluations.
149. The information and data collected will be triangulated using questionnaires,
interviews, observations and focus group discussions. The evaluation findings and
recommendations will be reported and shared internally and externally with all
relevant stakeholders.
150. DFID will use the M&E to inform its own standard Annual Reviews and Project
Completion Reviews. We will work with IDRC and AIMS-NEI to ensure that the
timing of our annual reviews fits with existing AIMS-NEI reporting timelines and that
IDRC is able to provide us with the needed information.
151. DFID will also promote cross-learning across the AIMS-NEI, CSC and DelPHE
initiatives. As a component of this, we will work with CSC and AIMS-NEI to develop
improved metrics and more objective ways of comparing, assessing and evaluating
the development impact of scholarship schemes.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Logframe: EDRM: 3578515
Annex 1: AIMS Proposal (EDRM: 3578558)
Annex 2: AIMS Budget (EDRM: 3578533)
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