Job Description
Job Title
Probability Forecast
Applications Specialist
Vacancy
No.
1378
Programme
Type of Appointment
(Casual, Permanent)
Closing Date
Permanent
Job
Level
3
Met R&D
Hours of Work
(Full, Part Time)
Salary
(range)
Function
or Team
Full-time
£25,500 - £30,000
Ensemble Forecasting Group,
Data Assimilation & Ensembles
Location
Exeter
01 April 2008
1. Background
Probability forecasts based on ensembles have been developed to provide users with information on
forecast uncertainty and risk assessment of weather-related impacts to help with improved decisionmaking. Use of ensembles is a key part of the Corporate Plan to improve services to customers, and
the development of MOGREPS (which is scheduled to become fully operational in summer 2008) gives
the Met Office a world-leading position in short-range as well as medium-range ensemble forecasting.
The ensemble forecasting group in Met R&D provides a complete service from research on ensemble
methods, through development of operational ensembles and post-processing systems, to research
and consultancy on the use of probabilistic forecasts for decision-making. Successful application of
probabilistic forecasts depends on effective communication of uncertainty information, and the
development of user-specific decision strategies. Recent months have seen a rapid growth in interest
in ensemble forecasts, particularly in the energy and commodities trading sectors, but also increasingly
in transport and Public Weather Services.
2. Job Purpose
Responsible for research and consultancy to help users optimise their decision-making from ensemble
forecasts. Provide a link between the research team developing ensemble systems and Met Office
business programmes to optimise the use of ensemble or other probabilistic forecasts for the benefit of
our customers. This involves a mixture of research on communication and understanding of
information on forecast uncertainty, with application to meet the needs of particular customers.
3. Main Responsibilities
3.1.
Developing ways of presenting and explaining forecast uncertainty to users ranging from the
general public to specialist decision-makers
3.2.
Conduct research on the estimation and interpretation of probability forecasts, developing
research collaborations where appropriate. Topics of research may depend on the skills of the
successful candidate, but could include:
 rigorous derivation of probabilities from ensemble forecasts;
 statistical post-processing for optimisation of probability forecasts;
 communication of uncertainty and decision-making;
 public understanding of probabilistic information.
3.3.
Provide a consultancy service to analyse end-users' decision-making problems and develop
bespoke forecast products to meet customers’ needs. This will be done in collaboration with a
full-time consultant.
3.4.
Development of statistical post-processing systems to adapt the ensemble output to users’
requirements, and verification systems to assess performance.
3.5.
Promotion of probabilistic forecasts within the Met Office and, in collaboration with sales and
marketing teams, to customers.
Person Specification
4. Certificated Qualifications
Essential Criteria
4.1.
Good degree (2.1 or better) in maths, physics or similar subject with high mathematical content
4.2.
PhD or equivalent level of research experience in a mathematical science, or in business
decision-making.
Desirable Criteria
4.3
Research experience in the application of statistics.
4.4
Experience in a scientific consultancy business.
5. Knowledge, Skills, Experience & Behaviours
Essential Criteria
5.1.
A good understanding of statistics and an ability to apply it
5.2.
A strong interest in meteorological predictability, the principals of probability forecasting and the
application of forecasts
Capacity for innovative thought and self-motivation to develop and promote new ideas
5.3.
5.4.
5.5.
Ability to present scientific information effectively and convincingly to non-specialists at a senior
level
Good team-working skills
5.6.
Strong computing skills including Unix/Linux and FORTRAN or IDL/PV-Wave or similar
Desirable Criteria
5.7.
5.8.
A good knowledge of weather forecasting systems. Experience with ensemble or probabilistic
prediction would be particularly valuable.
Understanding of trading markets (e.g. energy, commodities)
5.9.
Experience in business risk management and decision-making strategies
6. Additional Information
There will be no line management responsibilities. However, depending on experience of the
successful candidate, they may be asked to take leadership of the consultancy service which will
provide the opportunity for development of leadership skills.
This is a developing area and there is the opportunity to engage with customers across a wide range of
Met Office Business. There will also be opportunities to participate in international conferences and
collaborations, giving the opportunity for career development in either research or business
applications.
Benefits and Facilities
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As an employee of the Met Office you will be eligible to join the Nuvos Civil Service Pension Scheme with a low
employee contribution. This is a defined benefit scheme which the Met Office, as an employer, contributes to.
You also have the option to join a partnership scheme where the employer can contribute and the employee
can contribute if you wish. For more details please see the Civil Service Pensions website.
Annual Leave allowance of 25 days (plus 8 days public holiday and 2½ privilege days taken at fixed times
during the year).
Training opportunities.
Performance-related pay.
The Met Office sports and social club.
The potential to work in different areas within the same organisation. Employees are expected to complete 24
months in post before applying for alternative posts within the Met Office.
Guaranteed Interview Scheme for Disabled Applicants
To widen the pool of candidates on which to draw, we guarantee an interview to any disabled applicant who meets
the published minimum criteria for the post/entry level.
To qualify for a guaranteed interview, you do not have to be registered as a disabled person but you must have a
disability or long-term health condition that puts you at a substantial disadvantage in either obtaining or keeping
employment. The disability must be likely to last for at least 12 months.
To apply for a guaranteed interview, please complete the appropriate section of the application form. When
appropriate, you should provide details of any particular arrangements you will require for the interview, e.g. car
parking, speech facilitator.
Any false declaration of disability to obtain an interview may invalidate any resultant contract of employment.
Relocation
Unless stated in the job advert, financial support is not available for candidates to move to the job location.
Mobility
Normally, staff appointed at JL4 and above automatically have a mobility clause in their employment contract.
Some JL5 staff may also have a mobility commitment, depending upon the job.
Nationality
In common with all United Kingdom (UK) Civil Service departments and Executive Agencies, applicants for
employment in the Met Office are required to satisfy certain nationality requirements. For full guidance see the
Border & Immigration Agency's 'Working in the UK' website, where you will find information about working in the
UK. Again, in common with all UK Civil Service departments and Executive Agencies, some posts in the Met Office
are 'reserved' for UK nationals only. Applicants who are not UK nationals should be aware that further career
prospects might be affected.
Application Forms and Further Information
Application form available from www.metoffice.gov.uk
If you require a Word version of the application form, please e-mail HREnquiries@metoffice.gov.uk including the
words 'application request' in the subject line. An automatic e-mail will be returned to you immediately. If you have
not received an e-mail within 48 hours then please contact us. Alternatively, you can call or write to:
HR Customer Services
Met Office
FitzRoy Road
Exeter
EX1 3PB
Tel: 01392 885000
Please mark your request or returned application form: Probability Forecast Applications Specialist 1378R
Thank you for your interest in this position. Due to the high numbers that apply for positions in the Met Office we
are unable to reply to each applicant individually. Therefore, if you have had no response from us within four weeks
of the closing date you may assume you have been unsuccessful.