International Joint Commission
Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence Water Regulation Study
Fish Sub-Group of the Environmental Technical Working Group
Year 2 Report - March 2003
Integration Modelling and Coordination
Part I
1.0 Introduction
A focus of the Environmental Technical Working Group (ETWG) involved in the IJC
water levels study is the importance of wetlands as indicators of environmental response
to water level regulation changes. The fish communities that reside in these wetland areas,
whether seasonally or during their entire life cycle, are a critical component of the aquatic
ecosystem and have many beneficial uses to humans. Other habitat types are also
important to the completion of this life cycle, hence, the fish assessment will incorporate
all habitat types (see Part II of this report). Changes in hydrological regime affect plant
communities, shorelines, sediment transport and thermal regimes, which in turn affect fish
populations and communities in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River by changing
fish habitat availability and suitability. The aim of the Fish Subgroup (FSG) of the ETWG
is to identify the hydrological and biological factors related to water level fluctuations that
affect key fish populations, fish diversity, and productivity. Part I of this report
summarizes FSG progress in Year 2 of the 5-year study plan. As part of the requirements
of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence water regulation study, this report has been assembled
for the Study Board on behalf of the Fish Sub-Group (part of the Environmental Technical
Working Group). It includes Year 2 summaries for all funded projects.
Prepared by: Carolyn Bakelaar on behalf the members of the ETWG Fish Sub Group (March 2003)
1
2.0 Overview
In the last half of Year 2 considerable effort has gone into scoping and detailing how the
fish indicator assessment framework will be integrated across the complete area of study
from Lake Ontario through the St. Lawrence River to beyond Trois Rivières. The FSG
will need to generate consistent habitat and population assessment models for application
across all sub-areas of the LO-SL system. The FSG is currently working out the details of
how the habitat and population assessment models will be selected and which fish guilds
and species will be represented in the analyses.
2.1 Fish Sub-Group Activities and Interactions
The coordination of the fish sub-group has continued successfully due in large part to the
cooperation of the membership. The FSG met for two workshops, one in the fall of 2002
(Québec) and again in March 2003 (Kingston). These meetings are proving to be an
important element in ensuring connectivity and integration of project level activities
toward the goals of the ETWG with regard to generating fish performance indicators.
Additional interactions took place via various TWGs’ meetings which occurred
throughout the year. The FSG was also well-represented at the Study Board’s miniconference in November 2002. Contacts within the ETWG are going well and good crosscontacts have been established with the H&H, Coastal, IM and PFEG working groups.
Representatives from the FSG are involved in chairing and organizing two special water
level-related sessions during 2003 international conferences (International Association of Great
Lakes Researchers – Chicago, and American Fisheries Society annual meeting – Québec).
2.2 Fish Indicators Framework
The development and analysis of the fish indicators integration framework has
been of great assistance in two additional areas: a) integration with other elements of the
ETWG and with other TWGs, and b) linkage through to the PFEG’s Shared Vision
Model. Regarding the former, GIS and simulation models will be necessary for the ETWG
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
2
to be able to evaluate and provide indicator measures for comparing alternate regulation
schemes. There is continuing concern about how the required thermal characterization of
the various parts of the LO-SL system will be realized. This is an essential input for the
fish sub-group as so many life history events are keyed temperature. On the later, it has
become increasingly clear that there is a disconnect between how elements of the ETWG
will generate metrics for comparing alternate regulation schemes and how the PFEG
envisions integrating various TWG indicators in the form of interest satisfaction curves
(ISCs) as functions of simple hydrologic attributes of regulation regimes. For the FSG at
least, it is clear that the results from the assessment models are unlikely to be condensable
into simple ISCs. Instead, it will be necessary for separate models to be run the varying
results thereby contributing appropriate metrics which can then be fed into the SVM.
More detailed discussion of the indicators framework is available on a MS Powerpoint
presentation archived on the IJC ftp site:
ftp://ijcstudy@wtoftpa.on.ec.gc.ca/ijcstudy/ environment/meetings/
Fish PerformanceIndicators Framework Feb03 -97.ppt (see also attached CD ROM).
2.3 Analysis of options for fish guilds and species to be assessed in all geographic
areas
[Deliverable: A draft report on the analysis of options for fish guilds and
species to be assessed in all geographic areas to be provided by March 3,
2003 including analysis of field and laboratory results.]
As stated this deliverable has not yet been produced. Collectively the analyses among all
members of the Fish Sub-group are not yet sufficiently advanced and documented to allow this
report to be completed. However, based on discussions through out Year 2 and at the recently
completed February 2003 FSG meeting, we can report the following results with certainty:
1)
The fish guilds will cover all fish species with life history stages involving near shore,
less than 2 m depth habitats, and especially those with preferences for vegetated habitats.
The fish guilds will be organized by thermal threshold for spawning as these temperature
criteria determine when various species are exposed to water level effects either within or
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
3
between years. Six temperature thresholds will be considered, at approximately 4 C
intervals, from 4 C to 24 C. Fish species will then be divided into 2 further groupings
dependent on the degree of their dependence on vegetation, both emergent and
submergent, especially in the spawning and YOY life stages. This will create a total of 12
groups. These groups are present in all geographic areas of the Study although the exact
species composition varies from place to place with biogeographical phenomena. Given
the tremendous spatial and temporal variation in water levels regimes present throughout
the study area, these 12 groups should ensure that potential fish effects are covered
adequately. When the results from the individual life stages and groups are computed as
habitat supply or risk of stranding, they will mostly likely be assembled using a worst-case
approach whereby the most negative outcome for any life stage-group is taken as the
indicator for the whole set of indices.
2)
The fish species selection for population modelling is incomplete but will complement
the fish guild approach so as to provide continuity from habitat supply indices to
population response indices. Some species are already clearly selected for population
modelling, e.g. pike and yellow perch. It is already clear that a centrarchid should be
included to cover the higher temperature thresholds but the final choice has yet to be
made. Largemouth bass and pumpkinseed are prime candidates. For intermediate
temperatures the choices are not as immediately obvious. Since it is unlikely that much
more than 3 or 4 fish population models can be generated in the time available, we are
close to completing the fish species list.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
4
3.0 Fish SubGroup Year 2 Project Summaries
Table 1. Fish Sub-Group Projects Funded in Year 2
Geographic Region
Lower
St. Lawrence
Lower
St. Lawrence
Lower
St. Lawrence
Upper St. Lawrence/
Lake Ontario
Upper St. Lawrence/
Lake Ontario
Lake Ontario
Title
Quantification of fish usable areas, fish population
processes, and fish diversity in both the managed
marshes and natural portions of the lower St.
Lawrence River. (2 Parts)
Impact of water flow on fish assemblages in the
lower St. Lawrence River.
Water-level Fluctuations in the St. Lawrence River
and Spawning of Northern Pike (Esox lucius L.) in
floodplains.
Fish Recruitment- Evaluation of Hydrologic
Management on Northern Pike and Muskellunge in
Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River.
The Effects of Long-Term Changes in Water Level
on Northern Pike Recruitment and Abundance
in Eastern Lake Ontario and the upper St.
Lawrence River.
Development and Demonstration of a Prototype
Fish Habitat Impact Assessment Model for Lake
Ontario.
Project Leader
Marc Mingelbier
Yves de Lafontaine / François
Marchand
Alain Armellin / Marc
Mingelbier / Jean Morin
John Farrell
John Casselman / Bruce
Morrison
Charles K. Minns / Susan
Doka
3.1 Water discharge and fish usable areas in the St. Lawrence River
Marc Mingelbier1 and Jean Morin2
1
Société de la faune et des parcs du Québec
2
Service Météorologique du Canada (Env. Can.)
There is an abundant literature on the impacts of water discharge on fish ecology. The
St. Lawrence River is also influenced at various degrees by changes in discharge from
Lake Ontario. Such variations have an impact on growth, feeding and reproduction
habitats both in shallow low-velocity waters and in deep high-velocity waters. Fish access
to managed marshes along the St. Lawrence River may also be limited by changes in
hydraulic conditions. In addition, food production, stimulus for migration, success of
migration, spawning, survival of eggs and juveniles, larval drift, spatial requirements,
species composition, diversity and abundance can all be affected by flow alterations.
Given the wide influence of water discharge, the performance indicators cover several
aspects concerning fish, at the species level, at the multispecies level (e.g. reproductive
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
5
guild, feeding guild) and at the habitat level (natural and managed). These indicators are
complementary to those developed for fish in the Lake Ontario and the International
section of the St. Lawrence River.
Indicators of the Fish Usable Area (FUA) measure for several discharge scenarios in the
St. Lawrence River (inter-annual indicator) is based on the habitat areas usable for single
species or groups of fish (e.g. guilds, lentic vs. lotic areas) affected during specific and
critical periods of their life (e.g. spawning, feeding period) by changes in the water regime.
The FUA indicators are established using field measurements. Multivariate relationships
are drawn between fish occurrence and habitat variables such as water depth, current
velocity, temperature, turbidity, conductivity, bottom slope, wave exposure, substrate and
vegetation type and cover. Each FUA will be computed for a number of discharge
scenarios using high spatial resolution 2D-modelling developed by the Canadian
Meteorological Service of Environment Canada, which uses, among other, the floodplain
topometry recently acquired by the Common Data Needs Group (now known as IM
TWG).
Since fish species have distinct phenologies and habitat preferences, there will be a
number of these indicators, each of them corresponding to a specific time-window. A
species will be selected so as to represent various interests (commercial species,
endangered species, species and groups of species of ecological importance). As suggested
by the Lake Ontario and Upper St. Lawrence River fish Group, the FUA indicators can be
weighted or expressed as area-days. They can also be used either individually or in
combination to compute long-term series. Several time-windows will be considered, with
different start and duration, each one covering a critical period corresponding to a single
fish or a group of species. At first, these windows may correspond to a calendar date, but
given the fact that significant shifts in timing windows may occur (recent field work in the
St. Lawrence River showed that this could be the case), there is a need to adjust these
particular windows using temperature.
Regarding to the FUA, Year 1 was mainly dedicated to clean historical databases, to
collect recent fish/habitat data between Montréal and Sorel and map them, and to acquire
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
6
the topography of the river at a high spatial resolution (Common Data Needs and J. Morin
from the H & H Group). Also criteria were chosen to get a preliminary list of 20
significant fish species.
During Yr 2, we collected fish/habitat data in the Lake Saint-Pierre area, this will be
analysed during Yr 3. We computed statistical analysis with data collected during Yr 1
(between Montréal and Sorel), for several significant fish species. Presently, we are
completing fish habitat simulations for several scenarios in the River, they will be
included in our annual report (March 15th 2003). This first experience provided very
encouraging results and also suggested some ways to refine the relationship between fish
occurrence and habitat descriptors. Our annual report will also present maps with the fish
observations at Lake Saint-Pierre for the main species. Also, since late December 2002,
people were hired to finish the clean-up of databases with historical fish records. Finally,
we will update the interim recommendations in our annual report.
3.2 Spring flood and fish access to managed marshes in the lake Saint-Pierre area Lower St. Lawrence River
Marc Mingelbier and Philippe Brodeur1
1
Société de la faune et des parcs du Québec
Since the seventies, 5500 ha of marshes were enhanced in the floodplain of the
St. Lawrence River. During the spring flood, the high water level in the River allows fish
access to various managed marshes. The spring flood also influences the reproduction of
early spawners such as yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and Northern pike (Esox lucius),
due to some interaction with the water temperature in the marshes.
The present study was initiated in 2001 (Year 1), in order to quantify the impact of the
spring flood on both the duration of fish access to the managed marshes and also the
available areas in those habitats. Preliminary recommendations suggested (a) reach at least
5.6 m at Sorel on April 1st, (b) keep the water level at least at 5.6 m for 35-40 days and (c)
decrease water level below 5.0 m by mid-June (Annual report Yr 1). This was a first step
that needs to be refined in order to include some fish processes (e.g. migration chronology,
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
7
spawning and hatching time) and to produce reliable performance indicators for the
managed marshes.
During Year 2, fish samples and abiotic measurements were collected between April and
October in three managed marshes and four nearby natural habitats, all located in the Lake
Saint-Pierre area. The spring flood did not allow fish access to the maximum available
area in the marshes. Only 69% of the total usable area was accessible for about one week
during the highest water level period. In many cases, the access duration for fish was
clearly below the normal duration calculated for the period 1960-2001 (Annual report
Yr 1). Results about fish processes showed that there is a positive relationship between
fish diversity and water level in the marsh (p<0.05; R2=0.87; n=28). Migration, spawning
and hatching time varied between species. We anticipate expressing those fish processes
in terms of water level and temperature (e.g. degree-days) for single species or/and groups
of species, in order to ensure maximum fish diversity and abundance in the marshes under
new regulation plans.
Links with other partners and projects
This work is a contribution to the St. Lawrence Action Plan and to the International Joint
Commission Study.
Hydrological scenarios and hydrodynamical simulations provide basic results that are
necessary for fish habitat modelling. For the past 5 year there has been a strong interaction
between the Société de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec and the Meteorological Service
of Canada (Env. Can.), whose members are involved in Shoreline Erosion, Hydrological
modelling and Common Data Needs Groups.
In order to solve potential use conflicts, the Canadian Wildlife Service and the Société de
la Faune et des Parcs du Québec have compiled available recommendations regarding
wildfowl and fish. Results revealed that fish and waterfowl needs are not necessarily
conflicting.
Part of the present study is realised in collaboration with Laval University and the
University of Québec (Trois-Rivières).
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
8
In order to ensure continuity between Lake Ontario and the other sections of the
St. Lawrence River, the Société de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec developed indicators
comparable to those ones developed in the Upper River Section and Lake Ontario.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
9
3.3 Impact of water flow on fish assemblages in the lower St. Lawrence River
Scientist in-charge: Yves de Lafontaine
Collaborator(s): François Marchand, Simon Despatie
Centre Saint-Laurent, Environnement Canada, 105 McGill, Montréal, QC, Canada H2Y 2E7
Part I. Distribution and abundance of adult fish
Daily fish catches at the experimental trap fishery in St-Nicolas during 2002 have been
compiled, validated and added to the long-term database (May15-Oct 31, 2 catches per
day @ 170 days = 350 records). Data on fish length and weight were taken from 4 samples
every week and included into the database to allow comparison with those obtained in
recent years (1994, 1995, 1999, 2000). Results from the tagging experiment conducted
have been analyzed and the final report on spatial representativeness of the St-Nicolas fish
data set was finalized and made available to the IJC. Four oral presentations of these
results were made during the year, two at an international level, and two at a national
level. A scientific manuscript based on that report is in progress and will be submitted in
late-March.
The project linking the variability in the migration timing of fish to river flow fluctuations
has been completed and the final report has been distributed to the IJC. The study has
shown that a total of 25 out of 52 different fish species components exhibited significant
relationship between seasonal timing of occurrence and some flow attributes. These
relationships indicated that the seasonal movement of fish and fish availability to fishing
gears in the lower St. Lawrence River are under the partial influence of the flow regime.
The percent of variance explained by these relationships varied between species and can
be as high as 50%. The parameters of the best model were derived for every significant
case. In addition, a calendar of seasonal occurrence of the various fish species in the lower
St. Lawrence River has been derived and can help to identify the time period (timing and
duration) during which the catchability of various species may be more affected by river
flow. Subsequent analysis will be looking at the influence of hydrological fluctuations on
fish abundance and recruitment using the 30-yr data series of fish catches at the
experimental trap.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
10
Part II. Near shore marshes and juvenile and forage fish
A very intense sampling effort for describing the fish assemblages of the near shore
environment of the lower St. Lawrence River has been completed. Between May and
November, a total of 11 sampling sites were visited every second week and 2 stations were
sampled on a weekly basis using a 25-m long beach seine (3 mm stretched mesh). More
than 144 000 individual fish belonging to 52 different species have been collected and
about 9% of these are still be identified correctly. Physical and biological characteristics at
each site were also measured. Similar sampling had been realized in the previous year at 7
stations only. Data from both years will be used to assess the potential impact of water
level and river flow fluctuations on near shore fish assemblages of the lower St. Lawrence
River. Results show that banded killifish (Fundulus diaphanus), which contributed to a
large proportion (75%) of the catch, dominate the fish assemblage in marsh habitats of the
lower St. Lawrence River. Preliminary analysis from both years indicated that the fish
assemblages varied in space as an inverse function of the euclidean distance separating
two stations. Diversity and abundance of fish juveniles peaked in July, and the fish
assemblages were characterized by important seasonal variability, due to the sequential
use of the near shore habitats by various species. Full analysis of these data will be
completed next year.
3.4 Water-level Fluctuations in the St. Lawrence River and spawning of northern pike
(Esox lucius L.) in floodplains
Alain Armellin1
1
Centre Saint-Laurent, Environnement Canada, 105 McGill, Montréal, QC, Canada H2Y 2E7
Four goals were proposed in 2002 (1) to calibrate and validate an water temperature model
developed by Morin et al. (2002), (2) to describe the relationship of embryonic, larval and
juvenile development of northern Pike with water temperature, (3) to establish a relationship
between Year Class Strength (YCS) and water level in St. Lawrence River, and (4) to develop a
spawning ground model of Boucherville Islands with LIDAR data. Goals 1 and 4 were the
responsibility, and under the supervision of, Jean Morin, Meteorological Service of Canada (Env.
Can).
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
11
Sampling conditions in spring 2002 differed greatly from the two previous years, with
cold weather and high water levels. Nevertheless, 130 specimens of northern pike were captured
in the area of the Boucherville Islands, and their weight, length and sex described. Age
determinations were performed in summer by examining specimen scales. During this same
period, northern pike eggs and larvae were collected to study embryo development and growth in
relation to water temperature. Twelve temperature loggers were used to validate the water
temperature model of the Boucherville Islands. The validation work will be done in late fall. At
the same time, a data matrix was built containing year-class strength and environmental
parameters such as water level, water temperature, area of spawning habitat flooded or number of
degree-days during larval growth. Different statistical analyses such as hierarchical regression and
multiple regression will be conducted to develop a model. With the spawning ground model,
we’ll be able to reconstruct past flood conditions in term of total flooded area, flooded area of wet
meadow and marsh.
Preliminary results indicated a good relationship between northern pike year-class
strength, average water level in April, available spawning grounds and growth conditions in the
St. Lawrence River. Year-class strength showed weak relationships with meteorological
conditions in a given year. Using degree-days or water-level-days is interesting for taking into
account the effect of intra-annual variability of water level and water temperature on, for example,
growth. Before further analysis, we should conduct an age validation of pike sampled in 2000 to
2002.
The spawning season of pike began in early April, more precisely on the 9th of April.
Spawning activities were spread over 13 days, from April, 9th to April, 23rd. Growth of pike
embryos and larvae showed a strong relationship with water temperature in 2002. It took 22 days
for hatching to take place, and another 30 days for the fry to reach a length of 50mm. In 2002, the
critical period of incubation and larval growth took around 6 weeks. During this period eggs and
larvae were susceptible to stranding.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
12
3.5 Fish Recruitment-Evaluation of Hydrologic Management on Northern Pike and
Muskellunge in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River
John Farrell and Jason Toner1
1
State University of New York, Syracuse, NY
Four sub-tasks were proposed for our year 2 study; (1) determine hydrologic/thermal
regimes for various habitats over an annual cycle, (2) determine esocid egg-larval developmental
relationships to temperature, (3) develop a northern pike year-class formation regression model to
examine the effects of water level variables, and (4) evaluate existing habitat (vegetation)
structure.
Water levels and temperature are currently being recorded simultaneously every two hours
at four study sites. Upper St. Lawrence River sites include: two wetlands with modified water
levels (through the use of water control structures), a main river site located at the Thousand
Islands Biological Station on Governor’s Island, Clayton, NY, and a tributary site immediately
downstream of Cranberry Creek. Most water level gauges have been removed due to extreme
winter conditions and will be replaced as soon as possible (early march). Data collected from staff
gauges and official water level stations will be used, when necessary, to reflect bay and tributary
water levels. Onset temperature loggers are still deployed at study sites and are recording
temperature every two hours. Data will be used to develop a water level-temperature relationship
throughout the study.
Egg-fry temperature and development relationships have been developed for northern pike
and muskellunge. When a relationship between water level and temperature is determined, water
levels will be used to model esocid development.
The northern pike year-class formation regression model has been updated with the past
three years (2000-2002) of data collected by the New York State Department of Environmental
Conservation during the Thousand Islands Warmwater Assessment. This model has identified
specific water level management variables that are important in determining northern pike yearclass formation.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
13
Habitat quality analyses, as related to preferences exhibited by specific esocid life stages, are
ongoing. A literature review evaluating habitat use by northern pike and muskellunge is currently
being conducted. An evaluation of the existing habitat structure (vegetation) for several St.
Lawrence River tributaries has been completed. Permanent transects were set up and sampled this
year in Cranberry Creek, a site where alternative water levels have been influencing habitat
structure. Additionally, a spatially explicit model of seasonal and annual change in wetland
vegetation due to water level and climate change is being developed. This model will then be
used to create a habitat suitability index that can be used to predict spawning and growth of fishes
in both population and individual-based models.
3.6 Long-Term Dynamics of Northern Pike Recruitment in the Upper St. Lawrence River
and Lake Ontario - Effects of temperature and water regimes
John M. Casselman, Jason Dietrich and Bruce Morrison1
1
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Applied Research and Development Branch
Glenora Fisheries Station, R.R. 4, Picton, Ontario K0K 2T0
Water regimes and climatic conditions directly affect the shallow inundated wetlands that
northern pike use for spawning and nursery habitat. Year-class strength was calculated for
over five decades (1952-2000) to examine mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring,
summer, fall) environmental dynamics associated with water regimes (precipitation,
discharge, elevation) and water temperature for the upper St. Lawrence River and eastern
Lake Ontario. Cleithral age assessments on 1,436 pike from the St. Lawrence provided
indices of year-class strength for 41 years over the five decades and on 640 pike from
eastern Lake Ontario for 30 years for the three-decade period from 1970 to 1999.
In the upper St. Lawrence River, there was a significant decrease (P = 0.04, see Table 1) in
mean annual water level, most markedly in the fall, and an increase in temperature, most
markedly in the spring. Water level was extremely variable in the 1950s and 1960s,
transitional from 1956 to 1972, and subsequently controlled and much more stable (post
1972). During the early period, recruitment was controlled by the dynamics of water level
(P = 0.003) and during the latter period, the direct effects of midsummer temperatures
have been more obvious (P = 0.035). Overall, year-class strength decreased significantly
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
14
over time (P = 0.002). Since the beginning of the 1970s, year-class strength in eastern
Lake Ontario has been curvilinearly correlated with midsummer water temperatures (22.3
C). In the upper St. Lawrence River, where midsummer temperatures were an average of
4 degrees cooler (18.3 C), the relationship was on the descending lower arm of the curve
and linear. Recruitment in both locations now is unexpectedly negatively correlated with
late summer water levels, implicating stabilization. Water-level stabilization in the upper
St. Lawrence River and eastern Lake Ontario has negatively affected pike recruitment and
abundance.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
15
Table 1. Correlations between year-class strength of northern pike in the upper St. Lawrence River and water temperature and
water level for a 53-year period from 1952 to 2000. Correlations are presented for the combined period, for an early period from
1952 to 1974, and a later period from 1982 to 2000. The former is associated with extreme water level conditions; the latter,
with a period of water-level stabilization. Cleithral age assessment was conducted incorporating CSAGES composed of 768
northern pike collected for 10 years of an 11-year period from 1965 to 1975 for the early period and 668 northern pike collected
for 7 years of a 13-year period (alternate year sampling) for the later period—for a total 1,436 samples. Pike from the early
period were collected from guides’ creels and the latter period from the 1,000 Island index gill-netting program from a similar
section of Canadian waters.
Year-classes
Year
Variable
Water level
Water
temperature
Year
Period
Combined
r2
1982-2000
P
r2
N
P
r2
N
P
r2
41
41
0.002**
0.002**
0.224
0.229
22
22
0.003**
0.001**
0.370
0.428
19
19
0.294
0.953
-0.064
0.000
-0.028
-0.095
-0.188
41
41
41
0.004**
0.044*
0.004**
0.198
0.100
0.194
22
22
22
0.003**
0.060
0.003**
0.359
0.166
0.359
19
19
19
0.952
0.062
0.054
0.000
-0.190
-0.190
0.058
0.051
0.165
0.078
0.001
41
29
29
29
29
0.456
0.021*
0.015*
0.012*
0.221
0.014
0.182
0.202
0.212
0.055
22
10
10
10
10
0.980
0.072
0.285
0.063
0.340
0.000
0.350
0.141
0.368
0.114
19
19
19
19
19
0.035*
0.044*
0.004**
0.030*
0.035*
0.235
0.218
0.402
0.249
0.235
41
0.002**
-0.220
22
0.003** -0.366
19
0.664
0.011
N
P
52
52
0.040*
0.251
-0.081
-0.026
spring
summer
fall
52
52
52
0.232
0.026*
0.001**
annual
winter
spring
summer
fall
50
36
36
36
36
0.038*
0.184
0.014*
0.098
0.953
annual
winter
1952-1974
N
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
16
3.7 Development and Demonstration of a Prototype Fish Habitat Impact Assessment
Model for Lake Ontario
C.K. Minns, Susan Doka, Carolyn Bakelaar, Cindy Chu1
1
Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Science, Fisheries & Oceans Canada
867 Lakeshore Rd., Burlington, Ontario L7R 4A6
During the second half of Year 2 we focussed on 3 areas:
1) Developing a plan and detailing the fish indicator assessment framework and its
integration across the complete area of study from Lake Ontario down through the St.
Lawrence River.
2) Expanding the Pike Population model for the Bay of Quinte
3) Wetland temperature and larval fish community monitoring and assessment
This report will address progress within these three areas, building on the Year 2 interim report
submitted to the Study Board in November.
Part II of this report discusses the preliminary findings of these studies.
ETWG Fish Sub Group Year 2 Report (March 2003)
17